SREX
synergy between
Regional Planning and eXergy Research Report 2008.2 Towards a low-exergetic South-East Drenthe
SREX REPORT 2008.2 TOWARDS A LOW-EXERGETIC SOUTH-EAST DRENTHE
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SREX report 2008.2 Towards a low-exergetic South-East Drenthe Version 1.8, 13th of March 2009
Edited by Siebe Broersma & Andy van den Dobbelsteen Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Architecture With contributions by Ferry Van Kann, Nanka Karstkarel, Gert de Roo – University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences Sven Stremke, Jusuck Koh – Wageningen University, Landscape Centre Wouter Leduc – Wageningen University, Urban Environments Group Ronald Rovers – Hogeschool Zuyd, Heerlen Rob van der Krogt, Frans Claessen – TNO/Deltares, Utrecht Leo Gommans, Siebe Broersma, Andy van den Dobbelsteen – Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Architecture SREX is a research project on assignment by Paul Ramsak – SenterNovem, Sittard For this report special thanks to Alex Scheper, Gien Pinxterhuis, Klaas Jan Noorman, Tanja Klip-Martin - Province of Drenthe, Assen Steven Slabbers – Bosch Slabbers Landscape Architects, The Hague Cor Kamminga – KNN Milieu, Groningen Jaap Jepma – Communicatiebureau Noordtij, Leeuwarden th And other participants of the SREX workshop in the Fijnfabriek, Erica, 25 of November 2008
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TABLE OF CONTENTS 1
PREFACE
5
2
INTRODUCING SOUTH-EAST DRENTHE
6
2.1
Landscape and history
6
2.2
Inventory
7
2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 2.2.4 2.2.5 2.2.6
3
ENERGY CATALOGUE FOR SOUTH-EAST DRENTHE 3.1 3.1.1 3.1.2 3.1.3 3.1.4
3.2 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.2.3 2.2.4 3.2.5
3.3 3.3.1 3.3.2 3.3.3
4
5
Topography Land use Built-up area Infrastructure Present energy system The near future
The exergy and energy demand Current demand Energy for houses Energy for horticulture Energy in the industry
The energy and exergy potentials
7 9 9 9 11 11
12 12 12 12 13 15
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Fossil fuels Sun, water and wind energy Heat and cold storage in aquifers Geothermal energy Residual heat
16 16 17 19 20
Matching supply and demand of energy
22
Conversion of energy Transport of energy Storage of energy
SCENARIO METHODOLOGY
22 25 28
30
4.1
Towards a common scenario framework
30
4.2
Choice
31
4.3
Conclusion
33
SCENARIO APPROACH TO SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TRANSITION
35
5.1
Introduction
35
5.2
Existing approaches to regional planning & design (literature review)
36
5.2.1 5.2.2
5.3 5.3.1 5.3.2
5.4 5.4.1 5.4.2 5.4.3 5.4.4
5.5 5.5.1 5.5.2 5.5.3
Strategic spatial planning Regional landscape design
Need for integrated approach to energy transition (problem definition) Introduction From global scenario studies to regional visions
Near-future change and far-future transitions (comparison) Conventional planning for near-future change Conventional management for far-future transitions Key differences between near-future change and far-future transition Integrating near-future planning and long-term transition
Integrated energy visions and the quest for robust strategies The past, the present, near-future and far-future(s) From context scenario study to energy vision From energy vision to robust strategies
36 37
38 38 38
39 39 40 41 41
42 43 43 44
3
5.6 5.6.1 5.6.2 5.6.3 5.6.4 5.6.5
5.7 6
Application case-study South Limburg (phasing) Step 1: Describing present conditions Step 2: Mapping near-future developments Step 3: Illustrating possible far-futures Step 4: Composing integrated energy visions Step 5: Identifying robust strategies
Discussion and conclusion
SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH-EAST DRENTHE 6.1 6.1.1 6.1.2 6.1.3 6.1.4 6.1.5
6.2 6.2.1 6.2.2 6.2.3
6.3
Global Market Context Energy and transport Spatial development Design principles Outcome of workshop (expert meeting)
Secure Region Energy-space aspects Outcome of workshop (expert meeting) Conclusion and reflection
Caring Region
6.3.1 Introduction 6.3.2 Energy and transport 6.3.3 Spatial development 6.3.4 Design principles 6.3.5 First outcome of the Caring Region workshop (expert meeting)
6.4 6.4.1 6.4.2 6.4.3 6.4.4
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Global Solidarity Introduction Energy and space trends Strategies from Global Solidarity workshop session Reflections on the Global Solidarity workshop session
CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK
45 45 46 46 46 47
47 49 49 49 49 50 50 51
51 52 53 54
55 55 56 57 57 57
58 58 58 59 61
63
REFERENCES
64
APPENDICES
66
A1
Energieverbruik wijken in Emmen
67
Inschatting energievraag Emmermeer
67
A2
69
A2.1 A2.2 A2.3 A2.4
Uitgangspunten voor de 4 regiospecifieke scenario’s (Zuid-Oost Drenthe) Mondiale Markt – Global Market Veilige Regio – Secure Region Zorgzame Regio – Caring Region Mondiale Solidariteit – Global Solidarity
69 71 73 74
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1
PREFACE
By Andy van den Dobbelsteen SREX stands for Synergy of Regional Planning and Exergy. It is an interdisciplinary research project conducted by the universities of Groningen, Wageningen and Delft, the Hogeschool Zuyd and TNO/Deltares, funded by SenterNovem under the programme of EOS-LT (long-term energy research incentive).
primary energy
into the air and water
waste heat power plant heavy industry
power plant
cascade of waste heat heavy industry storage
storage
waste
horticulture
hotel and catering
electricity
electricity
primary energy
Why synergy of regional planning and exergy? To answer this we first need to understand the concept of exergy. Exergy is the maximum work potential of energy, i.e. the quality part of energy. According to the First Law of Thermodynamics (with capitals, yes) energy never gets lost, but the Second Law explains that all processes develop towards an increasing amount of entropy, which can be seen as the waste part of energy (waste heat). Exergy is the part that is lost in and between processes. Our current energy system is based on efficiency but requires a lot of input from primary energy sources, predominantly fossil fuel. And we know this fossil fuel is finite. In addition, we use our energy very ineffectively: a lot of the exergetic potential is lost when – for instance – burning gas at a temperature of 1200 degrees centigrade, while using it to heat up houses to 20 degrees. Thus enormous amounts of unused waste heat are produced.
horticulture hotel and catering
offices
offices
dwellings
dwellings agriculture
agriculture
waste CURRENT SYSTEM
waste
into the environment
SUSTAINABLE, LOW-EX SYSTEM
A more sustainable, low-exergetic (low-ex) system would be based on the optimal deployment of waste energy flows. For instance, waste heat from industrial processes is still high-caloric, making it useful for application in different, lower-graded functions. Houses could be served with waste heat from greenhouses, avoiding the need for the highest-quality energy source we have: natural gas or oil. We thereby could preserve these for functions that really require the best energy available. The low-ex system is not necessarily efficient but very effective, potentially leading to improvement by a factor of 6, whereas we now struggle for 5% of efficiency improvement. In order to attain such a low-ex system, spatial planners should be fully aware of the energetic consequences of their decisions, as specific functions should be located close to one another, since transport of heat comes with great losses. At the regional level all types of spatial functions can be found, making the region the optimal scale to tackle the low-ex principle. This is why SREX was organised, combined expertise from spatial planning, landscape architecture, urban planning and energy technology. SREX uses two regions in the Netherlands as a testcase for the low-ex model to be developed: South Limburg and South-East Drenthe. This report reflects the first results from the Drenthe studies. We hope you enjoy reading it and learning from it. Critical reviews are very welcome as we keep learning from new ideas…
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INTRODUCING SOUTH-EAST DRENTHE
By Andy van den Dobbelsteen
2.1
Landscape and history
The province of Drenthe is largely situated on a sandy plateau, flowing in the wet and low-lying peatmeadow areas of Frisia to the west and bordered to the east by the Hondsrug (‘Dog’s back’). This is a relatively steep ridge created during the last ice age. Beyond the Hondsrug are the large-scale agricultural lands of the Veenkoloniën (‘Peat colonies’), partly belonging to Drenthe, partly to Groningen. They form a unique landscape for the Netherlands.
Figure 1: Old map of South-East Drenthe, probably 18th century; garrison town Coevorden is very well distinguishable, whereas Emmen is only a hamlet The south-eastern corner of Drenthe (fig. 1) has a history that is entwined with energy. First there was turf from the peat lands, which at first was won by farmers from small hamlets or villages, later replaced by large-scale exploitation, leading to a structured landscape with canals and railway lines for transportation of the energy source. Few of the original peat lands remain, but the utter eastern edge of this part of Drenthe is one of the places where you can still find the moist spongy soil, 2-3 meters higher than where man has had his shovel. Just after WW II oil was found around Schoonebeek, kick-starting Dutch oil enterprises such as Shell, but this was soon followed and replaced by the exploitation of natural gas. It started in this part of the Netherlands, later shifting towards the north, to Groningen and the Waddenzee. Since natural gas is depleting, the Schoonebeek oil fields are seriously taken into consideration again after having been deserted for over 40 years. At the southernmost edge of the Hondsrug lies Emmen, overlooking the lower-lying countryside around it. Starting as a minor village some centuries ago, the municipality of Emmen has grown to the
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second largest town in Drenthe, encompassing large industrial and horticultural sites. Large parts of Emmen were constructed in the era of natural oil and gas, around the 1960s and 70s. Coevorden is the second municipality of South-East Drenthe. It used to be a beautiful garrison town, organised as typically seventeenth-century star-shaped stronghold, as were more towns close to the German border in this region of the Netherlands. Alas, nowadays little of the original historical beauty remains of Coevorden, which is surrounded by new developments, although the contours of the original fortified city centre can still be seen from above and on maps.
2.2
Inventory
2.2.1
Topography
There are 145.000 people living in 62.000 houses, most of them in the city of Emmen. The municipality of Emmen accommodates 46.311 inhabitants (CBS 2008). Figure 2 shows the entire area, whereas figure 3 focuses more on the Emmen area.
Figure 2: Topographic map of South-East Drenthe
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Figure 3: Topographic map of the Emmen surroundings
Figure 4: Land use in South-East Drenthe
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2.2.2
Land use
As history showed, land use has altered throughout the ages. Not as many agricultural functions remain as once, but they still comprise a considerable part of the landscape. New cores for living exist in conjunction with the development of industrial and horticultural areas, and interestingly, the total area of forest land has never been as large as today. One of the economic features of this southeastern part, as well as the region north of it, is the presence of holiday parks, which often go together with woodlands and ponds, enriching the countryside in terms of (bio)diversity, but also deviating from the historical land use. Figure 4 shows the current use of land.
2.2.3
Built-up area
Figure 5 depicts the built-up areas in South-East Drenthe. Coevorden and in particular Emmen are clearly visible on the map, with Emmen as the main centre of human construction developments in the region.
Figure 5: Built-up areas in South-East Drenthe
2.2.4
Infrastructure
The main road infrastructure in the region is the A37 motorway from Hoogeveen to the German border. Smaller provincial and local roads cross the countryside. Emmen and Coevorden are connected by railway to Zwolle and Almelo, Emmen being the final halt on the line. Older railways that served the transportation of turf are no longer in use. From the same era many canals remain in the old peat colony settlements. Figure 6 shows the infrastructure in the area.
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Figure 6: Infrastructure of South-East Drenthe
Figure 7: Present energy system of South-East Drenthe
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2.2.5
Present energy system
Figure 7 gives a map of the current energy system. This will be discussed later in this report.
2.2.6
The near future
The ‘Nieuwe kaart van Nederland’ (‘New map of the Netherlands’) shows some ongoing and new developments in the South-East Drenthe area. Figure 8 summarises these changes in the near future, which were taken into account for the low-exergy development proposals.
Figure 8: Near future map of South-East Drenthe
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ENERGY CATALOGUE FOR SOUTH-EAST DRENTHE
By Leo Gommans, Ferry Van Kann and Rob van der Krogt
3.1
The exergy and energy demand
3.1.1
Current demand
The energy demand for South-East Drenthe has been estimated for several sectors [KNN Milieu, 2008] (fig. 9). Different from other places in the Netherlands is that the amount of energy for industry is high, especially the chemical industry. The energy-use for transport is mainly fuel from energyintensive, high-exergetic fossil sources, except transportation by train, these trains use electricity. Brandstof en aardgasverbruik ZO-Drenthe [KNN M ilieu, 2008]
4,500,000
GigaJoules
4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Energiesector
Consumenten
Handel Diensten Overheid
Agrarisch
Overige industrie
Chemisch industrie
Verkeer en vervoer
0
Figure 9: Energy demand in South-East Drenthe The high energy demand for agriculture is mainly caused by horticulture. The energy demand in the energy sector is for producing electricity for the grid. This electricity goes to consumers (houses), the industry and the services. Services also use electricity for cooling and since there mostly is more need for cooling then for heating, there is more need for electricity than for natural gas. The energy demand for consumers in this graph is mainly used for room heating en producing hot water.
3.1.2
Energy for houses
Most of the houses in the city of Emmen are built between 1950 and 1980 [CBS]. They use natural gas to produce a water temperature of 90oC for heating the houses and 60oC for the production of hot water. The average energy demand for these houses has been estimated for every m2 of floor space [Senternovem, 2008]: Natural gas for room heating: approx. 14 m3/ year Natural gas for hot tap water: approx. 4 m3/ year Electricity: approximately 30 kWh/year
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For new build houses this average energy demand has been estimated for a m2 floor space1 as well: Natural gas for room heating: approx. 5 m3/ year Natural gas for hot tap water: approx. 5 m3/ year Electricity: approx. 30 kWh/year/m2 floor space) The temperature, hence the exergy that is needed for heating the rooms of new build houses, is lower. Almost all new houses don’t use temperatures above 70oC, some can heat with 50oC and when using very low temperature heating with floor heating it’s even possible to heat with water temperatures of 30oC. For the houses in the municipality of Emmen, an estimation of the yearly energy demand of the 46.311 houses is made (fig. 10), to give an impression of the different energy flows, we are talking about: Approx. 80 million m3 natural gas for space heating, hot water and cooking (3 million GJ/year 1 ) Approx. 160 million kWh electricity for lighting and electric devices (1.5 million GJ/year*).
Elektriciteit [GJ/jaar]
Aardgas [GJ/jaar]
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000 2,000,000 Giga Joules per jaar primaire energie
2,500,000
3,000,00
Figure 10: Energy consumption in the municipality of Emmen
3.1.3
Energy for horticulture
As said before, most of the energy for agriculture is needed for horticulture. In South-East Drenthe you see large areas of greenhouses, most of them concentrated near Erica and Klazienaveen. At this moment there are approx. 280 hectares of greenhouses in South East Drenthe and there are plans to make build up to 1.000 hectares in the near future [KNN Milieu]. Because of the high energy prices at this moment, the sector has economic problems. Therefore it is important to reduce the demand of energy or to find a less expensive form of energy. At this moment natural gas is used for heating the greenhouses at an air temperature of approx. 25oC and for producing CO2 as a kind of fertilizer for the plants. Mostly this is done with CHP engines (Combined Heat and Power). They work on natural gas and produce CO2, heat and electricity. In this way the farmer has low costs of electricity because he gets the natural gas for a lower price than consumers do. The electricity is also used for lighting the plants, because some plants grow faster and better with artificial lighting.
1
When calculating in primary energy (electricity is produced with an efficiency of 39%).
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Figure 11: Typical figures for supply and demand of energy in a greenhouse Most of the energy losses in greenhouses are heat, transmitted through the single glass panels on the roof (more than 80%). Of course it has a reason, but it’s strange to see that greenhouse farmers can buy natural gas for half the price of what consumers pay and that consumers are forced by the building regulations to insulate their houses very well and use high-efficiency glass for the windows. These windows in the houses transmit 25% of the energy that single glass of the greenhouses transmits. For this reason, a greenhouse uses per m2 of floor area, over two times more energy for heating than existing houses do and even more than four times as much energy as new build houses do (fig. 12).
elektriciteit in kWh
Energieverbruik per m2 vloeroppervlak
aardgas in m3
50 40 30 20 10 0 Nieuwbouwwoning
Na-oorlogse woning
Glastuinbouwkas
Figure 12: Energy consumption per m2 of floor area There is a lot to win in horticulture sector, think only of using insulation screens inside the greenhouse, under the roof, during the night. The transmission of heat will reduce and more of the solar radiation can be used. You also can think of another form of energy, for example low temperature heat, with less exergy because there’s no need for this high temperature. Smart solutions can bring new life to this form of agriculture and new economic perspectives. From this point of view, a lot can be learned from the “Zonneterp” project with the energy-producing greenhouse (fig. 13).
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Figure 13: Principle of the energy-producing greenhouse [Kristinsson et al., 2008]
3.1.4
Energy in the industry
The energy used in the industry is differentiated and depends on the processes in this industry. Often it’s high-exergetic and based on fossil fuels like oil and natural gas or electricity produced from these fossil sources. These sources are used for making products and heat often with a high temperature like steam. Electricity is mostly used for lighting and mechanical power. In South-East Drenthe we see some large industries with a huge energy demand like the paper industry in Coevorden (Smurfit Kappa, paper factory with process temperatures of 160 degrees Celsius – and Forbo Novilon, plastics – rubber – PVC floor covering with also process temperatures of 160-180 degrees), the Chemical industry in Emmen (Emmtec) and the NAM. On the one hand those industries are users of energy; on the other hand they are also a source of low-exergetic energy. There are also initiatives for reopening the oil mining from the oilfield of Schoonebeek by using steam to extract the thicker oil from this field. A lot of energy, in the form of steam, is needed to run this process. Finally we could mention the greenhouses and the three existing combined-heat-power plants that make currently use of fossil fuels on an industrial level, like mentioned before. To get an idea of the amounts of energy used in Emmen and Coevorden by their industries we refer to figures of the Province of Drenthe [KNN, 2008]. Taking electricity use not into account, the chemical industry is the largest user in the area. Figures based on data from 2002 show an amount of 4.25 PJ used by the chemical industry park of Emmen. Other categories of industry use 1.1 PJ in Coevorden and 0.8 PJ in Emmen. Moreover the greenhouses in Emmen are responsible for the reasonable amount of energy use within the category agriculture: 2.5 PJ. Finally, the power plants together are responsible for 2.3 PJ. Maybe it’s not always possible to reduce the energy-use of these industries, but sometimes it could be an option to use non-fossil sources like biological (waste) products as energy source for a highexergetic energy demand. On the other hand there are a lot of middle or low-exergetic losses mostly in the form of heat. That heat can be upgraded with high efficiency or can be used at other places in the industrial area or beyond. See the next chapter for more information on this subject.
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3.2
The energy and exergy potentials
3.2.1
Fossil fuels
In the history of South-East Drenthe, fossil fuels have been gained. Since 1850 peat has been exploited on a large scale and later in the 20th century, oil and natural gas was exploited. So South-East Drenthe contributed a lot to the Dutch energy demand. Untill now there is still natural gas withdrawn but there’s not so much left. The oil production has stopped because it was expensive to exploit the rest of the oil that was left in the ground. Because of the higher oil prices now, there are plans to withdraw the last oil with expensive and energy consuming (steam) techniques. When these plans are realised, there’s a potential for residual heat that may be used for other (lowex) energy demands. Then we need to know more about the process to withdraw the oil from the underground. Because we are not looking for fossil sources themselves, we will not discuss this subject further.
Figure 14: Old-fashioned exploitation of peat
3.2.2
Sun, water and wind energy
More sustainable energy sources come from water, solar radiation and wind. Because there are not many differences in height in the South-East of Drenthe, there’s not much of waterpower potential. In fact the situation at this moment is that water is pumped from the lower parts to the higher parts to prevent dehydration. So preventing dehydration in a natural way (water retention) is a way of energy saving. Using differences between salt and sweet water is another possibility for energy production (blue energy). Since there is no sea with salt water, blue energy is not a potential for South-East Drenthe, as well as using waves or tides is not a potential for this area. The solar radiation in South-East Drenthe doesn’t differ a lot from the average in the Netherlands, which is approx. 1,000 kWh/m2.year on a flat surface. The angle of the surface, the orientation and the local obstructions are the most important factors that determine the amount of energy that can be harvested. In the next paragraph, some ways of converting this solar radiation into a sustainable form of energy will be discussed.
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Figure 15: Wind differences in height (left) and geographical location (right) South-East Drenthe is not the windiest place in the Netherlands, but on a certain height there’s still some energy to gain. The average wind speed is 4.5 m/s but higher in the atmosphere, the wind speed increases. In urban areas the wind speed near the ground is much lower than it is in rural areas (figure 15). Thus big wind turbines can still generate some energy. A wind turbine with an axis height of 80 meters and a diameter of 90 meter (figure 16), can generate 5,000,000 kWh electricity in a year, which is 3% of the electricity demand of all houses in the municipality of Emmen.
Figure 16: Wind turbines
3.2.3
Heat and cold storage in aquifers
In appendix PM a general outline is presented regarding the principle of heat and cold storage and the energy potencies within the larger region of the Northern Netherlands.
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Heat and cold storage, region Emmen / Coevorden The maps of figures 17a and 17b below show enlargements of the maps of figures 3a and 3b (see appendix PM), showing the potencies for heat and cold storage in the region South-East Drenthe 2 . From the map of figure 6a can be concluded that in most parts of this region the possibilities for heat and cold storage are fairly good, except for areas to the east of the city of Emmen, around Emmer Compascuum and Barger Compascuum, due to a lack of suitable aquifers. This doesn’t mean that heat and cold storage is nowhere possible in any of these indicated (‘orange’) areas, but successful operation is less likely. If there are good reasons – for example spatial developments with a reasonable heating and cooling demand – it is still recommended to investigate the possibilities for heat and cold storage for the relevant locations in more detail also for these areas. From the map of figure 6b can be concluded that – if fresh/salt water transitions are taken into account – also larger areas within the Coevorden municipality become less suitable for heat and cold storage. In case of relevant spatial developments in these areas a more detailed research is recommended, especially because productive aquifers are available. Part of that research should be to investigate options for a sustainable construction and operation avoiding undesirable exchanges between salt and fresh water layers in the underground. Heat and cold storage with closed boreholes See appendix PM for a description and some general comments on this type of energy systems. In a technical sense – taking into account the geological and hydrological characteristics of the underground - these systems are applicable in all parts of South East Drenthe.
Figure 17: a. Energy potency map for heat and cold storage in aquifers, South East Drenthe b. Energy potency map for heat and cold storage in aquifers, taking into account restrictions because of fresh and salt water transitions, South East Drenthe
2
Note: while these maps are based on the same datasets as maps 3a and 3b, they cannot be used for a more detailed interpretation. The models and datasets allow for interpretations on a ca. 1 km-scale.
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ΔT
5° C 0 - 4200
10° C 0 - 8400
4200 - 8400
8400 - 16800
8400 - 12600
16800 - 25200
12600 - 16800
25200 - 33600
16800 - 21000
33600 - 42000
21000 - 25200
42000 - 50400
No suitable aquifers available Table 1: Energy potentials in MJ/ha.day
2.2.4
Geothermal energy
The appendix gives a general outline regarding some principles of geothermal energy and the energy potencies within the larger region of the Northern Netherlands. Geothermal energy, region Emmen / Coevorden From the map of figure 18a (copy of figure 5, appendix) it can be concluded that in general the geothermal energy potencies in Northern Drenthe are much higher than in South-East Drenthe. In Northern Drenthe the geological ‘Slochteren’ formation provides aquifers with a very favourable combination of thickness, transmissivity, permeability and temperature. Nevertheless geothermal energy in South East Drenthe is not necessarily absent. In this region we find so-called Trias formations that also contain aquifers with geothermal potencies. Estimations of the energy potencies are indicated in the map of figure 18b [source: TNO, 2006]. The main differences with the Slochteren formations are a smaller thickness (‘Trias’ has smaller aquifers than ‘Slochteren’) and a lower depth of the Trias-aquifers (2000-3500 meters), and therefore lower temperatures (60-100 ˚C). Therefore the energy potenciesare lower. The highest energy potencies of the Trias aquifers can be found around the town of Emmen and to the east and south of it (see figure 18b). Recently some parties have started a procedure to acquire an investigation permit for a geothermal installation on a location eastern from Emmen, to serve the energy demand of a greenhouse area. For this permit it is requested that the local potencies will be studied into more detail, which will be initiated by the involved parties. For the exploitation of a geothermal installation also an exploitation permit is required, for which additional investigations and research is requested.
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Figure 18: a. Geothermal energy potential map (see appendix x.x for description) b. Geothermal energy potential map for S-E Drenthe (from Trias aquifers)
3.2.5
Residual heat
Various hot spots regarding the use of energy can be distinguished within the area of South-East Drenthe. At the same moment those areas are interesting locations for residual heat. Chemical processes like on the Emmtec business park run on various, sometimes high temperatures. Exchange of flows of hot water or steam is not unusual within business parks. Nevertheless the near surrounding with different spatial functions is often forgotten. Interesting locations in Emmen are next to the chemical industry, the packaging industry and the NAM gas treatment locations.
Figure 19: The Norit factory of Klazienaveen
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A paper factory is located in Coevorden. The process of producing paper results in residual heat of 120°C. Therefore it is also an interesting location from an energy cascading point of view. Moreover, almost next door to the paper factory there is also a waste incinerator. Although incinerators mean the end of the life for materials, it is a place of birth for electricity and residual heat, also in Coevorden. More scattered locations of residual heat are an iron founder in Klazienaveen and the Norit factory also in Klazienaveen. The greenhouses near Emmen have too much solar gains in summertime and need to be cooled by opening the windows. Air with a temperature of 25 to 35oC is ventilated but could be used for lowexergetic energy demand. The problem is that there’s no much demand for this kind of energy in the summertime, so it has to be stored to make it useful in wintertime. In the project “Zonneterp” (mentioned before), an energy producing greenhouse is developed, using an aquifer for heat storage.
Figure 20: Greenhouses near Klazienaveen In Klazienaveen and Erika, near the greenhouses are two 60MW electricity plants, each powered by natural gas. They are connected to a heatgrid for heating the greenhouses, but for some reason this grid is never used for transporting the residual heat to the greenhouses. Now every farmer has his own CHP on natural gas, to produce electricity, heat and CO2 to let plants grow in the greenhouses. Biomass and residual flows Like other regions, South-East Drenthe has large flows of waste, that could be used for energy purposes. Large parts of that waste can be considered as biobased energy. On the one hand we have more urban related waste flows like households trash, used paper and waste from gardens. On the other hand we have more rural related flows from agriculture activities and maintenance of nature parks or urban green areas. Relevant to notice is that the energy intensity of the waste flows can determine whether a more central or decentralized use of waste is appropriate for energy purposes. Low energy intensive flows like manure from cows or chickens can be handled more decentralized in digesters making biogas out of it. High energy intensive flows like household trash can be handled in centralized waste incinerators. Nevertheless reuse of materials should always be an issue before burning it and producing electricity and heat. A first investigation by KNN Advies (2008) based on statistical data from CBS shows the following flows: (In tons) Watery cattle manure Watery pig manure Household residual flows Organic waste Waste paper and carton Garden waste Waste wood
Emmen Coevorden 150.000 420.000 70.000 50.000 27.000 8.000 15.000 4.500 6.500 2.500 4.000 2.000 3.500 1.500 Table 2: Waste flows in Emmen and Coevorden
Only the listed energy flows represent an amount of energy of 750.000 GJ a year. That equals 25% of the total heat demand of houses in Emmen or half of the electricity demand of houses in Emmen.
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From a spatial point of view we can make a distinction between the sources in Coevorden and Emmen. As Coevorden is more rural we also see more watery cattle manure issueing for decentralized energy-space solutions. On the other hand in Emmen there is already a kind of waste boulevard, where various waste flows get combined. Next to the waste incinerator in Coevorden those locations should be stressed on an energy potential map of South-East Drenthe. Moreover there are some interesting more diffuse bio energy potentials, like wood pulp, straw, graze of roadsides, heath, reed, and so on. In case a decentralized network of digesters emerges, those energy potentials might become a source for cofermentation. A conservative estimate shows at least 40.000 ton of material a year (KNN Advies, 2008). Finally, we should indicate some interesting hot spots. Agriculture industries (125.000 ton in Drenthe), the Zoo from Emmen (1500 ton manure), and also sewage treatments are a kind of natural assembly points for biodegradeble waste flows. Therefore these industries and thelocation of the zoo and sewage treatments are indicated on the energy potential maps
3.3
Matching supply and demand of energy
Locations of functions and their energy demand as mentioned before as well as the spots of the energy potentials (supply) in South East Drenthe are mapped for this casestudy33 . When we know the type of energy (exergy), the location where it is produced or demanded and the time it is there, we can start matching the supply and demand, using different techniques for conversion, storage and transport of energy. In this paragraph we will discuss some techniques that can be applied for the region South East Drenthe to match the supply and demand. They are taken from the ”catalogue of techniques for converting, storing and transport of energy”, that is produced for the SREX-project (still under construction).
3.3.1
Conversion of energy
Biomass conversion Most of the energy demand in the Region South East Drenthe is fuel, natural gas, electricity, cold and different temperatures of heat. Fuel is the most difficult form of energy and is mainly used for transportation and producing chemicals. Using biomass as an alternative for fossil fuels is one of the possibilities to reduce the demand of primary energy. When we grow crops for these fuels like rapeseed for example, we need a lot of space to grow these crops. Approx. 1.500 litres of rapeseed-oil is harvested from 1 hectare of land, which is equal to 53 GJ primary energy. This is not a very efficient way of converting solar radiation into fuel, because it’s not more than 0,2 percent of the radiated energy from the sun. Using the other parts of the rapeseed-plants and producing methane gas, may double the energy production but is still a little. Since 2006 at EMMTEC Industry & Business Park in Emmen there’s a factory that produces Biodiesel from vegetal oil (Sunoil Biodiesel B.V.). It’s also possible to produce fuel from biomass waste flows. There are all kinds of biochemical processes to convert biomass (waste) flows into fuel or materials. Depending on the type of biomass and the conversion process, we also can convert it into heat, electricity or gas. Dry biomass for example is more suitable to combustion and wet biomass flows are more suitable for biodigestion to produce methane gas. With this gas we can produce electricity and heat with a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plant. The sewage treatment plant in Emmen for example has a biodigester for methane production and CHP for the production of heat and electricity. We also can use combustion of biomass to generate heat and electricity. Solar conversion Biomass indirectly is solar energy gained by plants, using photosynthesis. As we mentioned before, the yield is not high (less then 0,5% of the solar radiation is converted), nevertheless it is high exergetic energy. Photo Voltaic cells on the other hand, can, depending on the type of cells, convert up to 15% of the solar radiation into electricity, also high exergetic. The yearly average gain of solar (hot water) collectors can be up to 80%, depending on the water temperature needed. When this 3
SREX maps South East Drenthe
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temperature is high, then the efficiency will be lower. Another factor that influences the efficiency of this solar collector is the fact that there’s less demand for heat when there’s a lot of solar radiation, for example in summertime. Passive solar energy (warm air) can be harvested through south facing windows in buildings. It’s heat with a temperature of 30oC or less, so low-exergetic. Here we also have the problem that there’s less sunlight in wintertime when there’s much heat needed. The greenhouses in South-East Drenthe convert a lot of solar radiation into low-temperature heat. In summertime we can have the problem that there’s too much heat from the sun, so the rooms or greenhouses have to be cooled which cost energy for cooling. Some data on solar conversion [Gommans, 2009]: Radiation on a flat surface in the Netherlands 36.000 GJ/ha/yr Conversion for high temperature water (solar boiler) 9.000 GJ/ha/yr* Conversion for low temperature water 25.000 GJ/ha/yr* Conversion into electricity (PV-cells) 12.000 GJ/ha/yr** * Harvested with a standard solar collector ** primary energy use, based on an efficiency from an electricity plant of 39% Wind and pressure conversion into electricity As we discussed before, wind may be an interesting source for the generation of electricity in South East Drenthe. The main population of Drenthe doesn’t like wind turbines because of horizon pollution. Other solutions for electricity production are more preferable. One can think of smaller wind turbines in the rural area (fig. 21) or very small wind turbines in the urban area that haven’t such an impact on the environment. Their energy production will be lower than large turbines. Some estimations in saving primary energy with windturbines in South-East Drenthe, when positioned in a grid with a distance of 7 times the diameter are [Gommans, 2009]: Large windturbines (diameter = 90meter) 1.200 GJ/ha/yr* Medium windturbines (diameter = 18 meter) 900 GJ/ha/yr* Small (urban) windturbines (diameter = 3 meter) 500 GJ/ha/yr* * primary energy use, based on an efficiency from an electricity plant of 39% There’s is also a way of using pressure to generate electricity. In some industrial processes pressure is a residual product, for example the pressure of gas, needed to transport it. The Dutch national natural gas transportation network for example, has different pressures. At some places (reduction stations), the pressure is reduced. Here there is a possibility to produce electricity by means of a gas expansion turbine. At the Emtecc industrial area in Emmen for example, electricity is generated by reducing the pressure from 8 to 2 bar. In South East Drenthe, natural gas is extracted from the underground and is under high pressure, sometimes up to 100 bars. For the national gas grid, 8 bars is enough to transport the gas. At the places where the gas is extracted, the pressure has to be reduced and there’s a possibility for electricity production. At the NAM in Emmen, is natural gas extracted and exploited and may have possibilities for this technique. A residual product of this gas expansion is cold, that may be useful for other purposes.
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Figure 21: A solitair medium big windmill in the rural area Cooling The common way of cooling, is opening a window, when the temperature of the outside air is low enough, an other way of producing cold is with a heatpump that uses electricity. Electricity is converted into cold with an efficiency that depends on the temperature difference between the source of the heatpump and the demanded temperature. The higher this jump, the lower the efficiency. We also can use a cold source like the ground or the groundwater to cool with very high efficiencies (only the pump energy). In the industry often cooling towers are used to cool industrial processes. In these towers, water is evaporated, which is an efficient method for cooling. The principle of evaporating water is also used for cooling buildings and is called “adiabatic cooling”. In industrial processes sometimes cold is produced by lowering the pressure. At the Emtecc industrial area for example, where the natural gas is reduced in pressure from 8 to 2 bars. With this gas expansion process, electricity is produced by using a gas expansion turbine, as mentioned before. A lot of cold comes from this process. Cooling on the one hand, often means heating on the other hand. So cooling processes often produce heat. Especially in industrial processes this heat can have high temperatures. This heat that we call residual heat, can be used for several applications. Heat conversion When the temperature of the heat is high enough we even can produce electricity, for example with a steam engine. Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) allows us to produce electricity at a lower temperature: o o with water from about 100 C for example, we can produce 10% electricity and residual heat of 50 C. When the temperature of the geothermal sources of South East Drenthe are high enough, there may be a possibility to use the ORC technique for generating electricity from these geothermal sources. There is going to be more research on this topic and it is the question if other sources may be a better option. Residual heat for example from the chemical or paper industry in South East Drenthe can also be used for ORC first. Then there is low-temperature heat left that may be interesting for lowtemperature heating. In this way the heat is used for high exergetic energy production first. With the water from about 100oC, we also can cool by sorbtion cooling. Approx. 50% of the energy in the heat is converted to cold. When the heat we use is residual heat, then we save electricity to cool. It always costs some low exergetic energy making high exergetic energy. Peltier elements for example
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can produce electricity from a water temperature difference of 30K, but there’s a large amount of water needed to produce this electricity. Furthermore, Peltier elements are rather expensive. Heatpumps lift the temperature of heat with the help of electricity (or gas with an absorbtion heatpump) and residual heat. In some cases it could be interesting to ”regenerate” the energy by lifting the temperature with electricity and residual heat. In some industrial processes, this technique is used. In houses and offices heatpumps are more often used because it is energy-efficient and it also can work the other way around, so it can cool. Of course there has to be a source for a heatpump, which is mostly the outside air, groundwater or the underground itself. At the end of the chain the heat has to be transferred to the medium where it is needed. We do this with heat-exchangers and distinguish liquid-to-liquid, air-to-liquid and air-to-air heat exchangers. When the heat is used for space heating to keep people warm, it is transferred through the air by radiation and convection. When using lower temperatures to heat spaces, there’s more surface needed to transfer a certain amount of energy by radiation. We can use floors, walls and even ceilings to heat and cool the room (slab heating or cooling), but when the losses of the building are too high or the system temperature is too near to the room temperature, then this surface is not enough. In that case we have to look for an supplementary way of heating (or cooling). The “fiwihex” (fine-wire-heatexchanger) is a Dutch invention patented by Noor van Andel for heating or cooling rooms with very low temperature differences. They are used (experimental) for heating greenhouses with very low temperatures and may also be a solution for the greenhouse areas in South East Drenthe.
3.3.2
Transport of energy
Electricity grid In South-East Drenthe is a fine-meshed electricity grid connected to every house. The two power plants in Klazienaveen and Erika are connected to a 110 kV overhead line/cable (fig. 22). At these places it is possible to deliver large amounts of electricity to the grid. The grid around the greenhouses also has the capacity to take electricity from the farmer’s individual CHP-plants. Connecting other electricity producers to the network may not be possible everywhere, especially when they have a large production of electricity. The capacity of the local grid has to be investigated before planning large electricity production-units. In the industrial areas the grid often is heavy because there’s a large demand for electricity, especially in the chemical industry.
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Figure 22: Electricity grid of East Holland
Gas distribution Almost every house in South-East Drenthe is connected to the national natural gas grid. At the points where the gas comes into the houses, the pressure on the grid is less then 1 bar. The main grid has a pressure of 8 bar and between the main grid and the end users, there is a level of 4 to 2 bar. Between the different levels, there are gas expansion stations to reduce the pressure. It is not often done yet to put gas on the network but it is possible. Biogas for example is purified and put under pressure to distribute on the existing natural gas grid at old dumps. This will cost some electricity (aprox. 1 kWh per m3 of purified gas). It is also possible to make a gas pipe from one place to another to transport gas. There’s not much energy needed for the transportation of gas.
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Figure 23: Natural gas grid of Drenthe Heat and cool grid As mentioned before, the greenhouse areas of Klazienaveen and Erica have their own heat grid, that’s not used at this moment. This grid is connected to the power plants over there. There are plans to make a heat grid in the centre of Emmen, also connected to the new zoo area. The source for this heat grid could be residual heat from the Emtecc industrial area as well as heat from geothermal sources. When there’s enough residual heat, it may be interesting to have more heat grids, whether or not connected with each other. In the industrial area of Emtecc there may be need for a grid for steam or cold exchange. A cool grid may also be interesting for office building areas as they use more and more energy for cooling. Transport of biomass and CO2 Biomass normally is transported by road with trucks. When there’s much transportation, this causes noise and air pollution. Then it’s necessary to have an assembly point at a location that causes no nuisance. Biomass is also transported through the sewage system to the sewage treatment. It is obvious to plan treatment and conversion of biomass near these assembly points. CO2 normally is emitted in the air for example from combustion. Because of environmental reasons it’s necessary to collect this CO2 and transport it to locations where it is needed or locations where you can store CO2. Depending on the distance and the amount of CO2, it is transported by road or through pipes.
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3.3.3
Storage of energy
Heat and cold storage Storage of so called low temperature heat and high temperature cold is possible in the mass of a building (short term storage) or in the ground or an aquifier (seasonal storage) as mentioned before. Storage of high temperature heat and low-temperature cold is normally done in insulated storage vessels for a short time. Storing cold for a longer period in the ground is possible when the temperature is not very low. Storing heat for a longer period is not common because the energy and exergy losses normally are too high. The larger the storage is and the higher the temperature of the surrounding is, the lower are the heat losses. Seen from this perspective it would be interesting to investigate if the geothermal sources in Drenthe have seasonal heat storage potential for high temperatures. Maybe the depleted gas fields can be used for long term high temperature storage. These ideas about heat storage are interesting to investigate. CO2 storage Using the depleted gas fields for storage of CO2, is one of the possibilities that is investigated at this moment. This CO2 storage is not definitive because it’s possible that we can use this CO2 again in the future. Of course this storage will cost energy and is only a possible solution for reducing the CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. Storage of electricity There is not much potential for storage of electricity in South East Drenthe, with the techniques we use nowadays. Direct storage of electricity is one of the most difficult and expensive things. When the electric car is more common, then there are possibilities to charge the batteries of the car at times when there is a surplus of electricity, for example during the night. When there are a lot of electric cars, they all together form an interesting potential for short term storage of electricity. In fact this is postponing the demand for energy in time by local storage. We also can do this in a different way, for example by loading a hot water buffer with a heatpump during the night and using the heat during the day. In energy intensive production processes (e.g. aluminium production) we can produce when there is much supply on the electricity grid. Storage of energy in Biomass Biomass is a sustainable energy source including storage, in contrary to wind and solar energy that produces electricity that you have to use immediately. Not cutting a growing tree is storing energy but also storing wood or other dry biomass is storing energy. Storing wet biomass sometimes will cost some energy, for example for cooling to prevent decay. Vegetable oil for example, can be stored for a long period. A typical way of storing biomass for Drenthe is in the layers of manure in a sheepfold (fig. 24).
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Figure 24: manure in a sheepfold
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4
SCENARIO METHODOLOGY
By Nanka Karstkarel, Sven Stremke, Wouter Leduc and Ferry Van Kann This chapter will first give an introduction to our method and the process of finding the applied method. The second paragraph will describe our method to define/develop integrated energy visions.
4.1
Towards a common scenario framework
The set-up started in November 2007, this was discussed with all SREX members, and then the SREX researchers started to work on storylines based on a first joint framework. The discussion during the following meeting made clear that we should avoid using any of our two main topics, energy and spatial planning, as critical uncertainties (CU’s). Our input should be in the quadrants and not on the axis. In addition to that, the point has been made that we should link our scenario framework to already existing scenarios that are used in national or even international debates. That was our starting point to have a closer look to context scenarios and rephrase our own framework. Beginning with the last point the researchers shortly rephrased, based on the suggestions, their framework into figure 25.
Figure 25: SREX scenario framework Then, we had a real challenge in linking this framework with existing context scenarios. As three different, most commonly used scenarios, GEO-4, WLO (Welvaart en Leefomgeving) and TenneT, were investigated, the question raised which arguments we could use to choose one of them. Content, available figures and related goals – a sustainable energy system – were seriously compared. After this step of choosing one best fitting context scenario, the researchers raised the question where to place our, goal-driven, scenarios within the context scenario.
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Figure 26: Visualization of the approach to fit our scenarios in the context scenario The approach, like visualized schematic in figure 26, being intensively discussed, turned out not to be very useful for our research. An important argument is that if we choose a certain context scenario and also make a choice, one or two quadrants, regarding their uncertainties by placing our framework within 1 or 2 quadrants, than we exclude so called possible futures. Many researchers all over the world see these futures as realistic. That certainly would not help us to put our research/study in the national debate. Therefore, we suggest a new option. An option meaning we mainly use a selected context scenario and fill them in with our own storylines regarding energy and spatial planning. A comparison of the different context scenarios gave a basis for this new option. This comparison has been made to make a selection between them. The overview in Appendix A shows that they actually do not differ a lot in the critical uncertainties they use. Because most of them all closely relate to UNEP or OECD scenarios as figure 27 below shows.
Figure 27: Sceme of relations between different scenarios
4.2
Choice
We choose the WLO as an input for our scenario exercise in South-East Drenthe. One reason is that the WLO scenario has quite some relevant data and figures available regarding context variables in our research, like demography, economy and so forth. Moreover the data is based on national figures and also translated into a specific Limburg version, the so called Limburg Scenario. Finally, a lot of policy makers are making use of this scenario meaning it is easier to link our research for instance to Dutch planning agencies.
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WLO scenario, 2007 - Authors: MNP, CPB & RPB - National scale (NL) - Based on IPCC + CPB - Many aspects
Global
Private interest (economy)
Public interest (balanced)
National Figure 28: Scematical visualization of the WLO scenario Limburg scenario, 2006 - Provincial scale (Limburg) - Based on WLO and CPB - All major aspects - Quantitative storylines
Efficiency (economy)
Globalization
Solidarity (sustainability )
Regionalizatio n Figure 29: Scematical visualization of the Limburg scenario That means we now use the set of possible futures regarding the WLO, and also others, to design our four storylines for South-East Drenthe in which the synergy between regional planning and energy/exergy is the main focus. The figures 28 and 29 make clear what critical uncertainties the WLO scenarios use, especially in the Limburg Scenario. Basically they are the same, although slightly different terms are used. Figure 30 finally shows the step forward we made from the set-up to the framework, which we will use. So from our framework used in one WLO storyline, we switch to make our own storylines for SouthEast Drenthe based on the four WLO storylines.
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Figure 30: Scematical framework to develop four energy visions The SREX researchers used this framework to develop four possible energy visions for South-East Drenthe. More information about the energy visions is written down in a separate draft, and used in report 2008.2 to describe the energy visions. For the maps of the four energy visions, check the report of the second workshop in S-Limburg. The researchers applied the same framework for the first workshop in South-East Drenthe. We used the WLO-study to define the general background for the research area, about demography, economy, and so forth. The researchers worked out a map for each scenario, indicating the energy and space implications, already existing or planned. We used these base maps during the workshop to think about possible, future energy and space strategies. The workshop results will be described in a separate chapter.
4.3
Conclusion
We used the critical uncertainties from the WLO scenario, and the translations for our case-study areas, as a starting point for our own storylines. From there we worked on energy-space based storylines for South-East Drenthe, which gave extra attention to energy systems, spatial developments, design strategies, or design principles. The first step is taken for Southeast Drenthe: base maps are developed, and a creative discussion followed. The next step is to use the workshop sketches to work towards future energy visions for Southeast Drenthe. What we want to reach with this research is to discover possibilities for a sustainable energy transition in relation to spatial planning and design. To reach that, we study and try to find the most robust, essential strategies. We know that the current environment developed from influences on the historical environment. It stays uncertain and unclear how the future environment will evolve. We cannot predict exactly what the influences on the current environment will be and how they will occur. Therefore, it is necessary to look at several possible future environments that all will develop somewhat different. When doing that, more possibilities are studied and no or less possibilities are already excluded. That is the reason why we chose to work with a scenario approach in our research. We want to explore possible future developments on the field of energy and space. We want to test and develop general applicable, sustainable organization principles. And furthermore, we want to test and develop design strategies and spatial concepts. We want to discover robust solutions. We cannot predict the future, but we can prepare ourselves for the future by testing several possible developments. Therefore, it is necessary to study several assumptions concerning current trends and new aspects. Therefore, we need scenarios to support judgments about transition management. We want to find robust strategies for a sustainable energy transition, focusing on spatial planning and energy. The purpose is thus to develop for each possible future development a strategy, taking into account energy and space. So, we look at the future environment, following a certain scenario approach. For each of the possible futures, we will develop an energy and space strategy. We will
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study the different energy and space strategies. And we will select the most robust aspects for further research.
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5
SCENARIO APPROACH TO SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TRANSITION
By Sven Stremke, Ferry Van Kann & Jusuck Koh
5.1
Introduction
Spatial organization of the built environment influences both quantity and quality of energy needed to maintain human life. Energy-conscious spatial planning can contribute to sustainable energy transition; that is a transition of human energy systems from conventional fuels to sustainable energy. More and more landscape architects and planners are being asked to participate in the energy-conscious transformation of the built environment. Emerging sustainable energy landscapes can sustain themselves without excessive energy and material subsidies from outside. Sustainable landscapes provide not only for internal energy needs but also assimilate and convert renewables for human needs, i.e. power, heat, transportation as well as the production of food and goods. In order to articulate robust strategies for the transformation of the built environment, planners and landscape architects must go beyond the conventional practice of composing master plans, which allocate land-uses according to suitability analysis. Sustainable energy transition requires landscape architects and planners, first of all, to collaborate with specialists from many related disciplines and secondly, to adapt their methods. This is because both spatial extent and time-scale of energy transition vary significantly from conventional planning practice. Designing integrated energy visions is one approach to identify vital strategies for sustainable energy transition in the built environment. The design process includes both rational and intuitive stages; Lyle characterized the design process as an alternating current of analytical investigation and intuitive synthesis (1985). This paper focuses not so much on what many designers describe as ‘intuitive leap’ but rather on how to integrate scientific knowledge, existing landscape qualities and a growing number of uncertainties into planning and design of the physical environment. If landscape architects, designers and planners wish to participate meaningfully in the adaptation of the human environment, we have to learn how to deal with critical uncertainties while discussing long-term transition. This paper, first of all, illustrates how to compose integrated energy visions and, secondly, positions this approach within the context of strategic planning and design at the regional scale. A number of different perspectives on regional spatial planning are explored in the first section of the paper. Section two discuses the need for an advanced approach to strategic spatial planning which 1 4 can integrate long-term scenarios studies. The differences between conventional near-future change and long-term transition management are described in section three preparing the ground for integrated energy visions, discussed in section four. The method for integrated energy visions is then exemplified with the help of a Dutch case-study in South-East Drenthe. Finally, the approach is being discussed and put into context.
4
In the design world, possible scenarios are generated early in the design process. Rather than constraining themselves to concrete and sequential stages of inventory, analysis and proposal development, designers explore possible solutions at an early stage. This ‘sketch design’ or ‘brainstorming’ is certainly capable of stimulating deeper and more focused investigations. However, this (designer’s) notion of scenarios varies significantly from scientific scenario development based on current trends, indicators and uncertainties. Both scenarios project possible futures: Design scenarios (or design options) visualize spatial intervention in the real world whereas quantitative scenario studies are based on (more or less) unbiased calculations and scientific reasoning; see for instance Jaeger et al. 2007
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5.2
Existing approaches to regional planning & design (literature review)
Due to the interdisciplinary character of this paper, we have chosen to reflect upon existing approaches in regional planning from different perspectives – that is spatial planning and landscape architecture. In doing so, we intend to identify how existing approaches can be advanced so they can account for uncertainties in long-term transition management.
5.2.1
Strategic spatial planning
Although the combination of issues at hand - energy landscapes, regional planning, sustainability and long term visions - might be innovative, we expect to face well-known problems regarding the preparation of decisions in public policy. Mixed-scanning is a conception of decision-making as an answer to the rational approach and the incrementalist approach (Etzioni, 1967). Eventually, it led to the emergence of another approach to spatial planning: strategic spatial planning. In the following, we revisit these planning paradigms in order to position the here presented method for integrated energy visions. At this point, we may indicate that integrated energy visions consist of elements of different planning approaches. Strong elements of each method are used and weaker points of critic are related to an emerging field of knowledge and being answered. One of the useful concepts of a rationalist approach is a clear conception about how decisions are and ought to be made. Problems should be defined, goals become clear and alternatives means carefully weighted. Regarding problems and, to a certain degree, goals this is also useful for research on sustainable energy landscapes. There is a common understanding of problems, which our society faces, based on our current energy system. Setting a sustainable energy system as a goal is therefore not a point of major debate. That debate will actually start in evaluating alternatives, as there is not likely to be one agreed set of values that provides criteria for evaluation. Critics on the rationalist approach actually face the same issue in social decision-making (Braybrooke and Lindblom, 1963; Etzioni, 1967). A second point of critic on a rational approach in this might be that decision-makers have not the time, nor the resources to collect all the information required for rational choice. The same is true, although to a lower degree, for the designer of sustainable energy landscapes. Regional planning of energy landscapes can certainly be understood as a complex challenge. Therefore, decision-making strategies can be adapted to the resources given, following the incrementalist approach. Interesting requirements of the incrementalist approach are to focus on a small number of policy alternatives and only evaluating important consequences (see Lindblom, 1959). At the same time, incrementalists argue for no single decision or right solution. In other words, a series of analysis and evaluation is more appropriate to tackle problems, where ends and means are continuously redefined. A crucial critic on this approach is that it does account for future uncertainties, like technological innovation (see Braybrooke and Lindblom, 1963). Focussing on regional sustainable energy landscapes does not necessarily answer the fundamental question of what new energy sources or technologies might emerge in the far future. At the same time the incrementalist approach especially pays attention to the short run, as it neglects basic societal innovation (Etzioni, 1967). Could “mixedscanning” help us to deal with this pitfall while designing sustainable energy landscapes? Mixed-scanning is an approach that provides particular procedures for collecting information (i.e. scanning). It is also addressing strategies about allocation of resources (i.e. seeding). Two final characteristics to be mentioned here are the various levels of scanning, and differentiation between incremental and fundamental decisions (Etzioni, 1967). The latter characteristic can be related to the here discussed method for the composition of integrated energy visions in which we accommodate two critical uncertainties to tackle more fundamental choices regarding possible future developments. Taking an axis that describes levels of scale (i.e. global to local) refers to the idea of various levels of scanning. Although the here discussed design of energy landscapes has a regional focus, we incorporate larger scales (e.g. national) and smaller scales (e.g. community) since they influence the regional scale and vice versa. Within scenarios, the floor is given to incremental decision making, although ecological design principles and the exergy principle (as rational goals set in advance) are a
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way of “seeding”. Consequently, a small number of (four) alternative futures is considered. Due to the limitation in time and resources we do not focus on THE best solutions; rather, the aim is generating a number of exploratory energy visions. Based on these visions, conditions under which the system behaves can be understood, and used in a series of analysis and evaluation. Finding those conditions is, finally, from a rational point of view, a scientific answer to the research problem. At the same time, identified strategies help stakeholders in the decision making process. So to conclude, one may state that the here discussed method for integrated energy visions can take advantage of previous scientific debates. As indicated earlier, the concept of strategic planning can be linked to the mixed-scanning approach. Identifying strategies for the transition from visions to conditions can be understood as an example of how we connect “mixed-scanning” and strategic planning. Those visions may indeed have a certain degree of vagueness. According to Faludi and Van der Valk (1994), however, vagueness and lack of immediate relevance are features which are inherent to strategic spatial planning. The four-track approach from Albrechts (2004) shows how different products co-exist next to each other in strategic planning. He dedicated a special (first) track to constructing visions. Therefore, we finally state that energy visions are not THE answer. Rather, they allow exploring possible strategies for intervention in the existing built environment based on possible future developments described in context scenarios. Composing integrated energy visions at the regional scale represents advanced strategic spatial planning with elements of all three approaches discussed above: rational, incremental, and mixedscanning.
5.2.2
Regional landscape design
Among the different methods for sustainable regional planning and design, we have chosen to reflect upon the research framework described by Carl Steinitz (1990 and 2002). Steinitz has articulated an approach to regional planning and design which is organized around the following six research questions. How should the landscape be described? (representation) How does the landscape operate? (process) Is the current landscape working well? (evaluation) How might the landscape be altered? (change) What predictable differences might the changes cause? (impact) How should the landscape be changed? (decision) The question-based framework has been applied successfully in many regional design processes, both in the academic and professional world, e.g. the Harvard University projects “Alternative Futures for the Region of Camp Pendleton” (Steinitz et al. 2006) and “Alternative futures for changing landscapes: The Upper San Pedro River Basin in Arizona and Sonora” (Steinitz, 2003). In this paper, we are focusing on research question number four: How might the landscape be altered? This became necessary, as energy transition requires us to work across multiple scales (mixed scanning) and long periods of time (strategic planning). In long-term perspective, a region is not only exposed to intentional change (i.e. design) but also influenced by contextual developments. Discussing the adaptation of the built and non-built physical environment to sustainable energy systems requires us to account for critical uncertainties described in the so-called context scenarios; published for instance, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). But let us begin with examining question one and two: “How should the landscape be described?” and “How does the landscape operate?” To answer these questions is a prerequisite to every meaningful design proposal. These first two questions urge us to study and understand the region under investigation. Question number three “Is the region functioning well?” is capable of helping designers and planners to identify dysfunctions in the case-study region. As a result, areas or processes of special significance should be identified for further inquiry. All first three questions combined, when followed rigorously, assist in preparing a meaningful spatial plan. The main controversy, or let us say challenge, lies in research question number four: “How might the landscape be altered; by what actions, where and when?” According to Steinitz (2002) at least two important types of change should be considered: (a) change by current projected trends and (b) change by implementable design (e.g.
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plans, investments, regulations and construction). In this paper, it is argued that, next to the above two change models, a third type of change should be integrated in the design process: contextual change. State-of-art scenario studies (e.g. IPCC) render possible futures based on a number of critical uncertainties. Whether or not sustainability will become a guiding principle will clearly influence future spatial organization of the human environment and thus affect the potentials to optimize energy and space. Research question number five requires us estimating and comparing the impact of each proposal. At this point one may state that the environmental impact of energy transition should be minimized. Optimizing energy systems will help reducing the impact of renewable energy assimilation, transmission and conversion. In other words “energy which does not need to be assimilated has the least impact on the landscape”. As for research question six, a design proposal gathers potential solutions and evaluates them against each other; the final decision-making should be conducted by the stakeholders. Insofar, research question five and six remain viable in the exploration of possible pathways towards sustainable energy systems.
5.3
Need for integrated approach to energy transition (problem definition)
5.3.1
Introduction
Steinitz indicates that two important types of change should be considered in the (regional) design process: change by projected trends and change by implementable design, such as plans, investments, regulations and construction (2002). Spatial plans and policies intend to guide the alteration of current conditions and thus impact the way future landscapes will appear and function. Land-use plans, plans for nature conservation and preservation of cultural landscapes can be found among those more immediate change models. Although, many of these near-future changes cannot be identified in the landscape yet, their implementation is more certain, compared with the high uncertainty in autonomous trends. Scenario specialists, one the other hand, investigate trends. They distinguish between autonomous trends and trends within a certain area or region. To them, the possible far-future of a region is first of 25 all influenced by autonomous developments which are determined by, for instance, geopolitics. They are not influenced by the spatial organization of a region. Most scenario studies render possible futures at global or national scale on the basis of autonomous trends (e.g. IPCC). Regional trends, for instance population numbers, are commonly understood as a consequence of - or at least significantly influenced by - trends on the global scale. The direction of many trends remains unknown; if they are crucial in determining possible developments they are referred to as critical uncertainty.
5.3.2
From global scenario studies to regional visions
It is a matter of fact, that substantial efforts are put into the research of global uncertainties. Climate change and supply of conventional energy sources are among the most looked-upon and in-depth investigated trends on global scale. Despite all efforts, a clear future can not be foreseen and specialists have begun working with possible futures rather than one single outlook (see e.g. Friedmann et al. 2004). These possible futures are described in scenario storylines (e.g. secure region and sustainable region). In doing so, one acknowledges the existence (and unpredictability) of critical uncertainties that will influence our common future. Scenario thinking represents a major shift in many scientific fields, away from linear and one-dimensional thinking to more dynamic and complex understanding of the world around us. This paper suggests making use of available context scenarios in order to foster long-term transition towards sustainable energy systems. In the here discussed context of energy transition, regional energy visions aim to reveal possible strategies for a particular case-study region. In search of energy5
With far-future, we refer to a period of time beyond one human generation; in other words more than 30 years.
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conscious spatial organization principles one can not ignore critical uncertainties described in scientific scenario studies. That is because many possible changes in the built environment, for example the expansion of certain industries, may give rise for innovative means of optimizing the energy system. The loss of certain functions (e.g. greenhouses), in the contrary, limits the optimization of energy and space. While discussing energy-conscious transformation of the human environment, one may distinguish between near-future changes and far-future developments. While near-future changes are described, at least partially, in maps, one has to interpret possible far-future trends on the basis of text and diagrams published in context scenario studies. The emerging question then is how to structure the design process so it can integrate both, near-future change and far-future trends. In other words, what kind of procedural knowledge is needed to identify pathways for sustainable energy transition at the regional scale?
5.4
Near-future change (comparison)
and
far-future
transitions
In the following, we will elaborate on the key differences between planning of near-future change and managing of far-future transitions. Recognizing the key differences between the two approaches prepares the ground for a third, integrated approach to energy-conscious adaptation of entire regions. The first paragraph describes conventional planning for near-future change.
5.4.1
Conventional planning for near-future change
Planning regards the change of a present system to an advanced system as dynamic process. System change can be driven either autonomously or by a number of so-called drivers. Drivers are detectable; they can be described and quantified. Most commonly, change is being induced by drivers and then amplified by incentives. First of all, the need for change emerges; the issue is being “pushed” on the agenda. In a later phase, incentives are being articulated and established to sustain the process of change (see diagram). Loss of biodiversity, for instance, is partly due to the deterioration of natural habitats. The awareness of the direct relationship between habitat quality and biodiversity represents a transition driver and may result in change of policies. Subsidies, for instance, are understood as incentives that can help realizing change in land-use practices; they are capable of “pulling” systems from a given condition towards a desired future. Commonly, near-future change is based on consensus finding between the various stakeholders and a ‘product’, e.g. a land use plan, which is legally binding. Notwithstanding the flexibility of such planning documents, they guide change towards an advanced near-future system on the basis of drivers and incentives.
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Effectiveness Near-future system Incentives System property or indicator
Drivers Present system Time Figure 31: Conventional planning for near-future change induced by drivers and incentives
5.4.2
Conventional management for far-future transitions
Long-term transitions, in contrast, appear much more complex. The desired far-future can be reached via many different pathways. Due to the increased amount of uncertainties in long-term transition processes, systems may even fail to succeed in the transition to a desired state. The latter case may come true when transition drivers and/or incentives prove inadequate to sustain a long-term transition. In that case, systems may return to their original state or even collapse. Regardless the many uncertainties in long-term transition, a number of challenges require humans to explore potential pathways to advance present-day systems. This is especially true when it comes to intense and longterm consequences of human actions, for instance emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Here, cause and effect are delayed in time and do not necessarily occur in the same place. Scientific research, however, can reveal the relationship between today’s emissions and possible future consequences and thus drive transition to advanced far-future systems, for instance carbon-neutral energy supply. Transition management prescribes ways in which society-wide and nd complex system innovations can be guided towards goals of sustainability in general, and a sustainable energy system in particular (see e.g. Rotmans et al. 2001). John Hyslop reminds us that planning the far future is fraught with difficulties. Moreover, he states that we must avoid making unnecessary decisions which would close off options for future generations (in Friedmann et al. 2004). Far-future transition management thus not only (rightfully) receives special attention in planning theory and practice but also differs significantly from conventional near-future planning and design.
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Effectiveness Far-future system Transition incentives e.g. economic benefits
System property or indicator
Transition drivers e.g. increasing prices
Present system Time Figure 32: Conventional management far-future transitions with different possible pathways
5.4.3
Key differences between near-future change and far-future transition
It can be concluded, that (at least) two key differences exist between near-future change and far-future transition: First of all, near-future change is driven by the immediate experience of a dysfunction or the need to accommodate additional functions. Traditional land-use planning, for instance, aims at controlling land use through zoning system (Albrechts, 2004) and thus allocates space for required functions. In order to sustain long-term adaptation of the human environment, one must describe and quantify the possible consequences of human actions, thereby motivating transition as well as understanding of pathway development. Climate change adaptation and energy transition are only two prominent challenges calling for far-future transition management. The very fact that more than one pathway may lead to a (advanced) far-future system can be understood as another discrepancy between near-future change and far-future transition management. Pathways are depending on autonomous trends, transition drivers and incentives which may change over time. Comparing the two change models, one may state that near-future changes are more certain and far less vulnerable to autonomous developments than far-future transition processes.
5.4.4
Integrating near-future planning and long-term transition
Transition from fossil-fuel based energy system to a regenerative and self-sufficient energy system represents one of the greatest challenges mankind ever faced (Flavin et al. 1990; Sieferle, 2001). From history, we can learn that such transitions affecting assimilation, conversion and consumption of energy may require centuries (Smil, 2003 and 2008). As a matter of fact, transition from pre-industrial solar-energy system to fossil-fuels is still ongoing in many places around the world. Asia, Southern America and Africa are expanding their capacities for conventional electricity generation on the basis of fossil-fuels whereas some countries in the Western world are leading in the transition to sustainable sources (e.g. Norway). It may be concluded that energy transition will require a long period of time with many uncertainties emerging. Dealing with major uncertainties, for instance the sustainable paradigm, receives considerable attention in the present discourse on spatial planning and design. Hyslop highlights that “paradigm shifts are difficult to plan for since they are not usually recognized in advance”. However, he indicates that such paradigm shift can be accounted for in what refers to as “scenario-based approach” (in Friedmann et. al 2004, p.59). The question then is how to envision a long-term transition that incorporates present trends as well as future uncertainties? It is suggested here combining near-future planning with far-future transition management. This integrated approach is especially relevant when envisioning energy transition at the regional scale. It should allow architects and planners to develop visions for long-term energy transition while the subject, that is the region, and the system environment changes continuously. First of all, known trends and near-future changes in the case-study region must be identified and depicted. This way,
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already planned near-future changes can be integrated in the far-future energy vision, although they may not have left any marks in the physical reality yet. Near-future changes, for instance land-use change, can be mapped in what we refer to as near-future base-map. This ‘annotated’ topographical map illustrates the relatively certain changes in a region, for instance land set-aside for nature conservation. In a second phase, the possible far-future can be depicted with the help of existing scenario studies. In the present case, we have worked with the regional interpretation (Engelen et al. 2006) of the Dutch WLO scenarios (Janssen et al. 2006). In both scenario studies, the uncertainties are scale – who will collaborate in the future (global vs. regional) – and the values attached to human actions (economical efficiency vs. sustainability). The integration of scenario studies in the second phase of the design process allows exploring a wide range of possible strategies. This is because scenario storylines explore extreme possible futures and thus stretch human imagination.
Effectiveness
Scenario I
Scenario II
Scenario III
Far-future system
Scenario IV
System property
near-future base map
Near-future system
Present system Time Figure 33: Integration near-future change and long-term developments with the help of context scenarios
5.5
Integrated energy visions and the quest for robust strategies
This paragraph seeks to illustrate how to identify ‘robust strategies’ for energy transition in a casestudy region. Robust strategies appear in more than one context scenario; they are thus less depending on the uncertainties attached to long-term planning and design.36 It is therefore assumed that testing the robustness of possible interventions can reduce risk. Robust strategies can be synthesized by comparing a number of region-specific long-term visions for sustainable energy transition. Each vision, again, is based upon one available scenario storyline. The here discussed method integrates existing approaches in (strategic) regional planning (e.g. Steinitz, 2002) and scenario development (e.g. UNEP, 2007).
6
Robust ecosystems are extremely capable coping with varying conditions (Van Leeuwen, 1981)
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5.5.1
The past, the present, near-future and far-future(s)
Every region has a history, present conditions, a (relatively certain) near-future and a great number of possible far-futures. It is further assumed that regions will advance in a positive way and not collapse. The underlying assumption is that autonomous trends will drive system change in a constructive way. The near-future of a region is influenced by perspective change, made implicit by policies and spatial plans. Often, desired changes for the near-future are well described and illustrated in regional planning documents. The far-future, on the other hand, is influenced by a number of critical uncertainties. Most context scenario studies work with two critical uncertainties which results in four possible futures. Commonly, context scenarios lack detailed spatial representation of the possible futures. In order to investigate possible energy-space relations, (land use) maps must be created for each scenario. In the following, we describe how to construct these maps, and identify robust strategies on the basis of available scenario studies.
Far-future scenario I
Policies
Context scenario study critical uncertainty 1 Far-future scenario II
Historical system
Present system
Near-future system Far-future scenario III
Spatial plans
Context scenario study critical uncertainty 2 Far-future scenario IV
Figure 34: From history and present conditions to near-future system and far-future scenarios
5.5.2
From context scenario study to energy vision
How can one derive ‘robust strategies’ for energy transition given the great number of uncertainties in long-term transition management? The quest for strategies is closely related to strategic planning which originated in the 1950’s in the private sector. Rapidly growing and changing corporations utilized strategic thinking to plan and manage their futures while autonomous developments were increasingly uncertain (Kaufman and Jacobs, 1987). Clearly, the future can not be foreseen. Resource depletion and global warming, however, requires us to identify strategic actions (or strategies) that can help mitigating climate change and adapting the human environment. The present system needs to be phased out while the desired system is being phased in. Another reason for investigating robust strategies for energy transition is that most of the built structures (e.g. dwellings and infrastructure) are constructed for a longer period reaching up to many decades. Energy-
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conscious regional planning and design also seeks utilizing existing infrastructure and thus minimizing material consumption in the built environment. Energy-conscious regional planning and design also seeks to facilitate the collaboration among and between specialists (e.g. landscape architects and spatial planner) and the vast group of stakeholders. Salet and Faludi describe this participatory process as interactive approach to (spatial) planning (2000). This paper suggests anticipating multiple possible futures rather than drawing THE strategic land use plan. This is because too many uncertainties are attached to long-term energy transition; many of today’s possibilities to improve energy and space relations may vanish in the future whereas other possibilities emerge. Available scenario studies, for instance by IPCC and UNEP, have been interpreted on the national and often on the regional scale. They incorporate a range of autonomous trends, many of which will alter case-study regions as they are today. While one scenario may suggest the expansion of industrial activities in a region, another one may conclude that certain kinds of industry will no longer be feasible in the region under investigation. Long-term transition processes are dynamic; they are influenced directly and indirectly by a number of critical uncertainties and trends described in context scenarios. It is suggested here, utilizing available scenario studies to deduct a number of far-future base-maps from which one can begin optimizing energy-space relationships. Possible adaptations of the casestudy region can then be illustrated in so-called energy vision. Each vision then represents, as Albrechts put it “a conscious and purposive action to represent values and meanings for the future” (2004, p.752). The energy vision for the “global market scenario” may include large-scale heat networks given the condition that primary energy prices continue to rise. Energy vision for the caring region scenario, in contrary, may suggest development of autarkic farms. Each energy vision shows how to (re)structure the built environment so the regional energy system can be optimized and eventually sustain on the basis of available sources. A number of possible energy-conscious interventions (or strategies) can be distilled from each vision. Envisioning (regenerative and selfsufficient regions) is inventing a world that would otherwise not be (Mintzberg et al. 1998).
5.5.3
From energy vision to robust strategies
Composing an integrated energy vision is, to put in the words of Friedmann, “probing the future in order to make more intelligent and informed decisions in the present” (2004, p.56). The object of integrated energy vision is then not necessarily to produce plans but insights and a list of possible strategies for change to be discussed and further studied by the regional stakeholders. The question that remains is how to identify to most vital (or robust) strategies between all possible interventions in four different futures. One possibility to answer that question is to look for similar pattern between the different energy visions (see figure 35). If interventions are feasible in more than one energy vision, they are more likely to be realized than others. This is simply due to the fact that the conditions for such interventions are provided however the future unfolds. Consequently, it can be concluded that it is less risky to invest and realize these robust strategies. Fermentation of manure, for instance, will provide inexpensive energy and high-quality fertilizer. Whether or not sustainable development will remain relevant to society (paradigm shift and one of the critical uncertainties) is less critical to this strategy. Many strategies can be traced back in more than one energy visions; they can be categorized as more ‘robust’ than others which rely on very specific conditions (e.g. expansion of industry). Comparative analysis of all energy visions allows identifying robust strategies; these interventions in the built environment are worth considering from a long-term transition perspective. Robust strategies for sustainable energy transition are not, or only to some degree, depending from critical uncertainties described in context scenarios studies.
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Robust
Present region
Far-future scenario I
Energy vision I
Far-future scenario II
Energy vision II
Far-future scenario III
Energy vision III
Far-future scenario IV
Energy vision IV
Near-future region
Robust Figure 35: Identifying robust strategies for energy transition at the regional scale Albrecht reminds us that ‘strategic’ implies that some decisions and actions are considered more important than others (2004). Identifying robust strategies enables change; they allow stakeholders to direct necessary resource allocation, formulate actions and policies and adapt spatial plans effectively. (Energy) visions are considered powerful in that they are capable of influencing decision making in the present.
5.6
Application case-study South Limburg (phasing)
In the following, we will describe how we generated “integrated visions” and formulated robust strategies for the case of South Limburg. The actual design process can be distinguished into five different phases, each of which described consequently. For each phase we indicate which data are necessary (i.e. input) and which maps or plans result from the respective step in the design process (i.e. output). Please note that this paper centers on the methodology for integrated energy visions rather than discussing energy-conscious strategies for the built environment. Robust strategies for energy transition will be illustrated and discussed in separate papers.
5.6.1
Step 1: Describing present conditions
Step one is analysing the present conditions in the case-study region, that is the structure and qualities of the landscape and the human energy system. As this study concern energy transition, one may limit the landscape analysis to aspects which directly or indirectly influence the human energy system. Topography as well spatial organization of the region fosters or limits certain interventions and thus need to be investigated. Topography, among other aspects, also influences the potential for renewable energy assimilation. These energy potentials should be identified and mapped as discussed by Dobbelsteen et al. (2007) and illustrated, for instance, in the Renewable Energy Atlas of the West (Nielsen et al. 2002) or the Energieatlas (Regionale-Planungsgemeinschaft-Lausitz-
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Spreewald, 2007). The first phase of the design process should focus on the following question “How does the present energy system in the case-study region function and how can it be evaluated (in comparison with other regions)?” Input: topographical map, land-use map, built-up areas, infrastructure, data from energy providers and statistical agencies (in the Netherlands www.cbs.nl) Output: Present energy system maps (consumption, transport/conversion/storage, provision) regional energy potential maps (solar, water, wind, biomass, heat/cold and geothermal energy)
5.6.2
Step 2: Mapping near-future developments
Step two is depicting near-future developments on a base-map. With near future we refer to a period of maximum ten years. Available planning documents and policies provide insights on where, for instance, new housing areas, industry and infrastructure are planned. As in the case with South Limburg, provincial documents indicate where land is being set aside to expand the ecological main structure (EHS) and which parts of the cultural landscape should be preserved for future generations. We refer to the result of the second phase as “near-future base-map”. This “annotated topographical map” illustrates probable changes in the existing system. Many of the so mapped developments can, at the moment of investigation, not be identified in the landscape. The guiding question throughout the second design phase is “how will the region change in the near-future?” Input: Nieuwe Kaart van Nederland [New map of the Netherlands] (RPB, 2008); Landschapsvisie Zuid Limburg [Landscapevision South Limburg] (Kerkstra et al. 2007) Output: Near-future base-map (scale 1:25.000 or 1:50.000)
5.6.3
Step 3: Illustrating possible far-futures
Step three is studying existing context scenarios in order to generate so-called “far-future base-maps”. If available, provincial or regional scenarios should be utilized to produce these base-maps. The more specific the context scenario, the easier it is to concretize possible futures and map developments within the case-study region. However, one has to begin with analyzing context scenario studies at global (IPCC), national (in the Netherlands WLO) and regional scale (e.g. Province of Limburg). Consequently, a number of maps can be generated, each one illustrating one possible future. It is important to mention that these far-future base-maps visualise storylines provided by existing scenario studies. In doing so, one may focus on energy-related developments in the case-study region; for instance, the ratio between natural areas and intensive agricultural land. The following question should guide the work throughout phase three: “what kind of possible developments (and at which location) may influence sustainable energy transition in the case-study region?” Input: Limburg, een generatie verder [Limburg, one generation ahead] (Engelen et al. 2006); WLO scenario study (Janssen et al. 2007) Output: Far-future base-maps (in the case of South Limburg four maps and text)
5.6.4
Step 4: Composing integrated energy visions
During phase four, energy visions are being composed. Each energy vision aims to provide possible pathways on how to advance the possible future rendered in the context scenario towards a desired future. In the here discussed integrated visioning process, one must identify “how to increase efficiencies in energy use and how to utilize more renewable sources”. The authors strongly suggest to conduct this stage of the design process collaboratively - that is inviting stakeholders and specialists from different disciplines to participate in the vision forming. As this paper concerns the methodological underpinning of our research on sustainable energy transition, we will not discuss by which actions systems can be advanced. However, we like to stress that energy visions do not render an optimum energy system; rather they show how to adapt a case-study region so it can, eventually, drive on regenerative sources.
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Input: Present energy system map; far-future base-maps; renewable energy potential maps Output: Integrated energy visions (in the case of South Limburg four maps, diagrams and text)
5.6.5
Step 5: Identifying robust strategies
In the final step, energy-conscious strategies for intervention must be isolated and described for each respective energy visions. Comparative analysis of all possible interventions should reveal whether they can be realized within one possible future or multiple ones. The underlying assumption here is that if strategies appear in many possible futures, they are less sensible to the critical uncertainties. In other words, if we can show that one intervention is realizable in all four futures described in the context scenario, than it is more robust than strategies which only show in one or two possible futures. Throughout phase five, one should aim to answer the following question “which strategies are the most robust in long-term transition management with many uncertainties?” Identifying strategies and assessing their robustness can assist stakeholders in the decision-making process and thus fosters the transition to a sustainable energy system. Input: Integrated energy visions Output: Tables, diagrams and text describing robust strategies
5.7
Discussion and conclusion
This paper has discussed existing approaches to spatial planning and design and identified a knowledge gap for long-term strategic spatial planning. What became clear is the need for an integrated approach to strategic spatial planning which, one the one hand, allows stakeholders to explore concrete measures for change and, one the other hand, accommodates critical uncertainties in the long perspective. Integrated energy visions are capable of accounting for possible future trends, expressed in scenario studies, whereas derived robust strategies indicate where and how to initiate and sustain the transition from fossil-fuels to renewable energy sources. Integrated energy visions, as described herein, incorporate change by projected trends and change by existing plans and policies as demanded by Steinitz (2002). In addition, integrated energy visions are capable of dealing with critical uncertainties described in scenario studies. In the context of massive resource allocation, which is needed to initiate and sustain energy transition, it appears only logical to test and asses the robustness of any strategy for intervention in the long run. Furthermore, the paper has illustrated why and how to compose near-future base-maps. These are annotated topographical maps which not only illustrate the physical reality but also map changes which are not yet detectable in the landscape. The clear distinction between scenario base-map and energy vision, moreover, allows planners and designers to work with existing scenario studies in order to compose meaningful change models for any case-study region. In a way, not today’s physical reality is taken as a starting point (as common in spatial planning and design) but four ‘virtual’ possible future realities expressed in the so-called scenario base-maps. Each possible future then gives rise to different means optimizing energy and space relationship. Therefore, the here presented method for composing integrated energy visions not only allows to derive innovative solutions but also enables us to test and verify them against a number of possible future trends rendered by scenario scientists. The result of the process, however, does not have to be a map in the conventional sense. Rather, it can be a list of robust strategies of special value to the regional stakeholders. In conclusion, one may say that the here discussed method is an advanced application of Steinitz’s research framework. Despite the focus on question four “change model”, question one to three as well as five and six remain quintessential in the regional design process. The here discussed alteration of the research framework merely represents the outcome of our quest for an explicit methodological approach to energy transition at the regional scale. In doing so, we have borrowed heavily from mixed scanning approach and strategic planning too. However, we hope to feed the discussion on long-term transition management in general and regional planning and design in particular. It is now a matter of time to test and verify the here discussed method in other case-study regions. Furthermore, it is needed to develop explicit criteria that can help assessing whether a strategy can be considered robust or not. Finally, we like to stress the fact that the here discussed approach for integrated energy
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visions represents an attempt to join both, inductive processes (that is scenario composition) with deductive processes (that is vision forming). In doing so, integrated energy visions combine the advantages of both conceptually different approaches to planning and design of the physical environment. Integrated energy visions, if conducted thoroughly, are capable of helping to identify possible pathways towards a sustainable future in general, and sustainable and attractive landscape in particular.
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6
SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH-EAST DRENTHE
6.1
Global Market
By Ferry Van Kann
6.1.1
Context
This scenario can be characterized by a global and open market, as the name already indicates. The world has a capitalistic view and remains focussed on free market principles. That market shows high degrees of developments regarding economy and technology. Civilians are mainly customers and both materialistic and individualistic. Maintaining the welfare state is not a main issue within this story line, like interest in the quality of the environment. Therefore this scenario shows a remaining monofunctional focus, also regarding integrated energy and space developments. Economy of scale is the most important principle.
Figure 36: Base-map of the ‘global market’-scenario (SREX research team, 2008)
6.1.2
Energy and transport
To meet the still growing demand for energy in all kinds of activities, fossil fuels (oil, coal and gas) will be used like before. New centralized large scale power plants are certainly part of the energy developments. The fuels are in the meantime a storage facility for energy. Burn on demand. Distribution of energy will be done efficient like today with help of pipes, by trucks, and ships. Central electricity production is the focus, therefore high voltage lines remain important. Also because electricity will be used for power, labour, equipments, tools, heating, lightening and also heating and cooling.
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Use of residual heat from electricity production or other forms of waste heat uses, are economically not feasible due to large investment costs in heat distribution grids. Because it is economic efficient, heat will be used for own use or sometimes next door. That means first it will be investigated whether use of residual heat is possible for heating offices of the own factory. Secondly, options next door get attention if really obvious efficient. We refer to this as coincidentally emergenging cascades. A last option could be a connection with an already existing heat grid in order to earn some money with waste flows. For means of transportation, like cars, ships, planes, storage of energy is an issue. Therefore traditional forms of storage in refined fuels remain used like petrol, diesel or LPG. This means not a maior shift in infrastructure. The same is true for the existing intricated structure of the gas grid resulting in gas remaining a economically feasible option for heating. Within the Global Market scenario we see both options for fossil fuels from outside and inside the region. Fossil fuels will be transported mostly by ships to transfer points. As already noticed, on that spots it will be converted into electricity. Therefore new power plants emerge close to waterways and preferable next to harbours, like the Eemshaven. Depending on oil prices it is also possible to get oil from the Schoonebeker oil field in South-East Drenthe. Nevertheless, as South-East Drenthe has not large scale waterways or lakes, we don’t expect new power plants to emerge within the area. Electricity is transported to the region by means of high voltage lines even from abroad. New heavy industrial activities based on large scale raw material, like oil, will also emerge at the transfer points of energy for instance in harbours. For reasons of also safety, living and working places remain monofunctionally separated. Therefore workers are used to travel on a daily basis from home to work and vice versa. Regarding transportation, especially for goods, the economy of scale is a main driver. Large container vessels maintain services between for instance Rotterdam and China. Within cities, citizens principally use electricity for their energetic needs, like they do for heating. Nevertheless, we observe some opportunities for the Netherlands and also South-East Drenthe for local heating based on gas. New and efficient techniques like heat pumps for converting energy into both electtricity and heat become not a usual thing, because recovering the costs takes to long. We actually see developments regarding new housing constructions. New houses will reach more strict standards, based on high degrees of isolation and the use of passiv solar energy. Finally, as this scenario is focussing on efficiency from a economic point of view large scale use of renewables is not interesting. In case prices of fossil fuels raise dramatically above certain levels, renewables however might emerge automatically meaning that regional potentials will develop. For South-East Drenthe best potentials are regarding renewable energy for sure biomass and probably geothermal energy.
6.1.3
Spatial development
This scenario shows an ongoing intensification of cattle breeding, farming, and the use of greenhouses. The development of pig flats are not imaginary. That would result in concentration points of manure. Like concentration of spatial functions is in general a kind of design principle, due to economy of scale. This trend might also lead to a strong growth of the greenhouse areas in Erica and Klazienaveen. As a consequence we see spatially arising of islands of spatial functions. Greenhouses here, industries there, housing somewhere else, and so on. Finally this ends up with more need for transportation between concentrations of certain functions. Demographic trends show a growing need for health care services and less schools. Moreover the service sector remains important for economic development; therefore new offices will be built in so called commercial parks. Basic industries like paper, chemicals, metal, already existing in South-East Drenthe, remain and might even extend. Last but not least, green areas or nature will be exploited. We make money out of it!
6.1.4
Design principles
high voltage lines are the backbone of the energy system new power lines, also crossborder, are expected those lines will be nested in corridors of infrastructure gas pipelines remain in use no new large scale power plants expected due to shortage on cooling water waste heat projects emerge coincidentally on obviously suitable locations
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on locations where sinks are next door to sources (monofunctional) residual heat from industries can feed existing heat grids replacing fossils new sinks are located if possible next to heat sources
6.1.5
Outcome of workshop (expert meeting)
For the region of South-East Drenthe two energy issues are especially important. First, the region has biomass potentials with waste flows from both rural and urban areas within the region (like discussed in the energy catalogue part). Secondly, in Emmen and Coevorden are good potentials for re-using residual heat as distances are small, densities of especially industry and greenhouses high, and there is an already existing multifunctional cluster of spatial functions. To deal with these potentials on the scale of South-East Drenthe a back bone system of a regional (green) gas grid is supposed. Regional biomass can be gasified on various locations, like at the wastewater treatment plants, and put on the grid that could get more or less a ring structure. Subsequently that local gas can be used to run the local CHP’s on the chemical site in the city of Emmen, and in the two greenhouse areas next to Emmen. Heat from the various CHP can be used in the already existing heat grids to the greenhouses, and in a heat cascade also to residential areas of the city of Emmen. For the CHP on the chemical site heat cascades are also an option. First steam can be used in chemical production processes, then used to heat dwellings, and finally to heat tropical shelters of the local zoo. That same zoo can be seen as a biomass supplier (manure from animals). This local gas network, that actually 7 already exists for natural gas, makes use of the local potentials for renewables.
Figure 37: energy-space concept based on energy cascading for South-East Drenthe (Global Market)
6.2
Secure Region
By Wouter Leduc In this scenario, cultural identity and traditional values are important. This will lead to a break-down in globalization and a world decomposing into protectionist regions. The security of energy and material supply from other countries is lowered. This scenario aims for self-sufficiency, and personal survival without taking other people into account. The personal, living, environment is important, but economical efficiency and security of supply are more important than environmental aspects.
7
text based on SASBE paper Van Kann and de Roo, 2009.
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Figure 38: Base map of the ‘Secure Region’-scenario (SREX research team, 2008)
6.2.1
Energy-space aspects
All energy sources, but also materials and food, should, in principle, be found within the region. And security of supply, and possible financial aspects, determine the use of sources, and not sustainability in the first place. To make that happen, the following strategies may be applied: available fossil fuels in underground will be exploited again: e.g. oil; all the underground potential for heat/cold-storage and geothermal energy should be maximally exploited, on household scale; Sewage Water Treatment Installations (SWTI) will be used as an energy source; development of waste collection points at existing complexes, close to already existing built environment and small scale; development of small scale heat grids in the vicinity of sources of residual heat; biomass processing in ‘esdorp’-landscape when developing new living areas; existing heat grids remain; industrial areas/complexes are used for local energy cascading; agricultural land: surface is potential for, green, biomass – residues or crops; urban area: surface is potential for, grey/brown, biomass; wind energy is exploited on most suitable locations, not in valleys or villages. Some aspects concerning space are: residential areas will disperse in rural areas; multifunctional land use in rural areas; all energy strategies will lead to increased pressure on space. So, concluding: first, decentralism or the lowest possible scale are criteria for development. Second, SWTI will serve as a CHP-energy source when close to an existing heat grid, or close to new living areas. Third, SWTI will serve as a biogas producing energy source, using the existing gas grid, when distance to an existing heat grid, or new living areas is too large. Fourth, we should find ways to combine sinks and sources.
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Figure 37 shows the base map for the ‘Secure Region’-scenario, indicating energy-space aspects already existing or planned in the near future. The two main municipal centers are visible: Emmen en Coevorden. The figure shows the larger villages around the centers (pink). It shows the industrial areas (brown), close to those centers. And also the green areas in the case-study region and the two main greenhouse areas (light green).
6.2.2
Outcome of workshop (expert meeting)
The following paragraph will describe the strategies for the ‘Secure Region’-scenario, focusing on South-East Drenthe, which were developed with local stakeholders. Figure 39 shows the sketch. We described the idea of the self-sufficient region and worked on that by describing several strategies: An overall view shows the strategy, composed of four main ingredients: the ‘Esdorp’-landscape (right side of picture), the city of Emmen (red spot in the middle), the oil exploitation areas (upper side), and the, former, peat exploitation landscape (left side). This paragraph will describe all four ingredients separately, starting with the ‘Esdorp’-landscape: this landscape will develop towards an autarkic entity, based on small-scale and local energy sources and solutions, such as wind turbines, green waste, decentral fermentation, PV-panels and solar boilers, and CO2-capture and storage. This region will develop towards a ‘strong’ region. For that it needs a strong city. So, the second ingredient is the city of Emmen. The city, now seen more as a village and without the peculiarity of a city, needs to develop a strong government and a strong administrative machinery. Furthermore, it has to be strong in sense of economic and spatial aspects. The third ingredient is the oil exploitation area. There is still oil available, and the self-sufficiency and security-of-supply aspects, and the current economic situation, opens opportunities for renewed exploitation. The structure of the landscape and the technology are still available and transport can be easily started up, due to available infrastructure. The former peat exploitation colonies form the fourth ingredient. Long strait roads with open areas around, strait waterways, and a greenhouse area characterize this part. This opens opportunities for large-scale wind turbines, next to canals and roads; canals used as waste canals; green plantation to border canals and lanes; use of residual heat of greenhouses; and using canals as transport ways. The peat colonies will, by applying all these strategies, become energy generating. All these aspects offer opportunities for new jobs and can help to build up or rebuild an own identity of the region. Most ideas focus on electricity generation. The stakeholders expect that heat will not be such a large problem in the future. They even think of a heat surplus. The landscape structure, such as brook valleys, canals and loam layers, offers opportunities for water storage. Mills can be applied for the pumping. The stakeholders do not reject the idea of a heat grid, which is part of the municipal plan in Emmen. The stakeholders think that there are enough parties to carry a robust heat grid: a grid that is not dependent on one factor and will fail when that factor retreats. Park management in the industry and greenhouse sector will lead to the installation of roof applications, like green roofs or PV-panels. Take energy saving into account before, renewable, sustainable, production.
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Figure 39: Sketch of strategies for ‘Secure Region’-scenario
6.2.3
Conclusion and reflection
The process of the workshop led to a result that the researchers can use for further study of the energy and space relationships in the area. The proposed strategies fit within the boundaries of the scenario storyline. The main focus is on self-sufficiency and security of supply. Some of the strategies are also applied, based on economical incentives and local availability. The result of this workshop session stayed well between the borders of the studied scenario. The focus of the stakeholders was on enforcing the own region by applying several strategies. Going for autarkic communities means no dependence on outside input. This can reinforce the self-sufficiency. Striving for a strong city is also part of this strategy for more independence and self-sufficiency. The stakeholders thought also about using available energy sources within the region, fossil or renewable. Large scale wind turbines are an option: on the best location regarding wind and space aspects. This application will open the region for energy export, because of excess amount of electricity. The opening is only at the output-side. The developed strategies still focus on a closed region, selfsufficient, independent: no input. Therefore, the greenhouses and agricultural land will produce the necessary food. On the aspect of food, some trading can happen, but only in such a way that not more is coming in than goes out. In this exercise, we see that the stakeholders try to limit themselves to the borders of the scenario, but sometimes they want to go out. Local energy and material sources are important, but opportunities for trading should be applied. The idea of a sustainable transition is alive, but the economical impact is less important. A mix of technologies is important, so more options are applied. At the other hand, it
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can well be that the application of renewable technologies is more economical than the application of other technologies. It was not too difficult for this scenario to keep the stakeholders within the borders of the scenario. This did not really put a pressure on people’s creativity. Some strategies cross the borders, but it is not a constant. The researchers now have to work on the development of future energy-space visions for the different scenarios. In this process, we should keep in mind the strategies proposed in the workshop. We have to study future plans for the region and keep in mind our former work. All the proposed and studied strategies for the four scenarios form an overview of possible applicable energy-space strategies. From all the proposed strategies, we have to highlight the most robust solutions that could be applied in the future development of the region, regardless of the chosen direction of future development. It will not matter if future development follows one of the scenario storylines or if the future develops by taken some aspects of several scenario storylines to form a different future. Those robust strategies will help us to define planning rules that can be applied in practice. We are studying an energy based spatial planning. This will have impact on policy and governance aspects. We have to keep track of that and study how we can tackle possible problems. The search for those robust strategies is an important follow-up step in our research. We developed a method to look at a certain region and come up with possible solutions for a future based on energy transition. We have to elevate our method, by testing the policy and governance aspects of our possible solutions – the search for robust strategies. When this testing is positive, we may be able to succeed in contributing to the policy decision process with our method.
6.3
Caring Region
By Leo Gommans
6.3.1
Introduction
This scenario is characterized by protectionist economic policies aimed at autarky. The government is responsible for issues such as environment and social cohesion. Within the region there is a strong commitment towards environmental and social aspects. Furthermore the scenario is characterised by low mobility of people, capital and knowledge, and low economic development. Small-scale and multifunctionality go together to find region-specific integrated energy space concepts.
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Figure 40: Base map of the ’Caring region’-scenario (SREX research team, 2008)
6.3.2
Energy and transport
In the ‘Caring Region’-scenario, the energy demand for all sectors decreases. The techniques described in the ‘Secure Region’-scenario also belong to the 'Caring Region’-scenario. It should be noted that for the applied techniques, the social and environmental aspects are of more importance than the economic aspects. This scenario aims at the implementation of more renewable energy sources such as biomass and sustainable sources - the second step of the Trias Energetica. It also aims on a reduction of the energy demand - the first step of the Trias Energetica. Exergetic efficiency has an important place. Another aim is to avoid the use of fossil fuels. The burning of waste for energy supply causes emissions of harmful substances in the immediate surroundings that have to be caught again, with other techniques. A balanced agriculture develops in this scenario: intensive land use where necessary, extensive land use wherever possible. The tradition of the esdorp returns in new forms. The idea of the 'Living Machine' and the development of algae ponds near sewage treatment plants fit into this picture. This also illustrates the region-specific and the integrated nature of the expected energy-space concepts. Closer to the urban areas lives the farmer that produces the products for the inhabitants of the city. Using waste from the city and the extensively managed landscape, the farmer produces materials, food and energy on the intensively used land, close to the city. A zoning develops from culture (city) to nature (landscape), which leads to diversity, both in urban and rural level. The urban side of spatial zoning accommodates a heat grid with CHP with an application of cascading and roads that provide in the needs of the city. On the edges of the city the farms and industry are situated, that feed the city with consumer goods. The farms and industry also use and recycle the waste from the urban and rural areas, so it becomes food again. These waste products and biomass are used in the region it origins from. There is more storage capacity necessary, which has to be found in the region itself.
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In this scenario, we expect the development of new laws more addressed on sustainability. Heat, cold and waste laws should be developed so that actors are forced to search for other solutions for their waste. It is of importance that the legal aspect on a larger scale is treated, national or at EU level. Building regulations should be stricter, so that new build buildings are built more sustainable. We expect to find mainly two new housing developments: houses connected to a heat network and LowEx houses - homes with low energy use. New houses outside the heat grid will be self-sufficient.
6.3.3 Spatial development This scenario is characterised by the development of fewer new homes and a decreased interest in life in the big city. On the other hand, this scenario is characterised by building compact in existing villages and towns. Nature remains protected; citizens do not live in the middle of nature. There is a trend developing towards a balanced agriculture, the farmer should look for an extra income. One possibility is the combination with the increased demand for care. Other possibilities are forms of nature conservation or recreation. There is less transport in general and an increased interest in energy efficient public transport. New infrastructure is barely developed. We see a trend towards more integrated concepts in horticulture like the energy producing greenhouses (zonneterp), according to the environment and in interaction with other spatial functions.
6.3.4
Design principles
Local energy potential, mainly renewables and waste are of importance. When exploiting new energy sources more aspects (sustainable, social and economical) are of importance. - Forests and main ecological structures are used as a source for biomass (second generation) - Current heat networks remain and new networks are developed - The use of fossil fuels is replaced by biomass - Pre-treatment of biomass takes place on the outskirts of the city or near the source - Solar panels on the roofs of buildings (PV for industry, and solar collectors for houses) - Windturbines along line infrastructure and integrated in rural, urban and industrial areas - Soil as a source or storage for heat is only used outside of groundwater protection zones - The sewage treatment is seen as an energy source - Energy Cascading should be a leading principle
6.3.5
First outcome of the Caring Region workshop (expert meeting)
In the workshop we tried to collect ideas and information for the region South-East Drenthe to define some design principles for the long term that fit for the local situation. The map of South-East Drenthe with the sinks and sources was explained, as well as the base for the ‘Caring Region’-scenario: - Transition to social acceptable and sustainable and regional energy potentials - Densificated centres of existing villages and towns with shrinking population - More extensive used land in rural area with protected nature reserve - Expansion of intensive agricultural landuse (greenhouses / horticulture) - Not expanding industry, but transition from fossil-based to biobased industry - Decreasing but more energy-efficient and public transport - Cultural and traditional values are of special importance in the global solidarity scenario Some interesting things have been said: - The new zoo, buildings of the municipality and the swimmingpool may be interested in residual heat - At the location of the old zoo, 250 houses are planned, maybe interesting for a heat grid o - There should be a heat grid, connected to Emtec, which gets its warmth from 110 C steam - At Emmtec there are 2 electricity power plants of 30 kW each - The old dump produces biogas that can be used for a care center - There will be a lot of residual heat in the future from the 160MW steamproduction used for the withdrawal of oil from the old wells. Every day approx. 30.000 m3 natural gas is needed for this steamproduction - Dairy farming also uses a lot of heat
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- There is a waste incinerator in Coevorden that produces residual heat - NAM and the horticulture have a lot of CO2-emissions - In Coevorden there are a few industries with a high energy demand (IMAS) - There are plans for producing electricity from geothermal wells, along the border with Germany and deliver this electricity to the German grid because the german pay more for this green electricity. - For producing electricity, a minimum temperature of 80oC is needed - Almost everybody has a car because there’s little and good public transport - Cars on biogas and electricity may be interesting for the future - Public transport on local produced biodiesel (Sun-oil) - Houses (and farms) outside the city should be more independent (heat-cold-storage and Bio-CHP) - Connect climate adaption to mitigation - There’s a service for Sustainable Energy Promotion in Emmen (www.ddep.nl) People also mentioned the fact that there may be some interesting sources for energy, just across the border in Germany like the potato starch industry that also produces a lot of methane gas. The export of vegetables and even electricity because there are high voltage lines, are mentioned as well. Electricity transport to Germany seems interesting because of the high prices Germany pays for sustainable electricity. This is also the reason for a group of people to exploit geothermal energy on the border of Germany. It was not easy to keep the attention to the region. After all, the region was the focus in this scenario. Some questions about geothermal heat rose as well. A lot of people in Drenthe are positive about this form of energy because it shows that the underground of Drenthe still has more sources of energy, besides the peat, oil and the natural gas. On the other hand, the question is if you should pump up heat from a depth of 3 kilometres, while there’s a lot of residual heat from the industry in Emmen and Coevorden that is thrown away as waste and pollutes the air and the surface water.
6.4
Global Solidarity
By Sven Stremke
6.4.1
Introduction
Cultural and traditional values are of special importance in the global solidarity scenario. Society shows a clear trend towards sustainable development with strong governmental support. All parties pay attention to the environment and social aspects of life. Both, top-down and bottom-up initiatives emerge. Welfare is relatively evenly dispersed throughout the entire population; open access to knowledge and technology. Within the global solidarity scenario, special attention is drawn to nature and environment, compared with other possible futures.
6.4.2
Energy and space trends
The following trends could be identified in the WLO scenario study for the NNL: Transition to sustainable energy system Natural gas only as transition fuel Global solutions Æ large-scale renewable electricity networks Growing industry Æ increasing energy demand of industry (within existing area) Compact cities/industry: concentrated functions (separation conflicting functions) Increasing demand for public transportation, improved international connections More and more tourism in South-East Drenthe Waterways, railway and highway important for transport of goods and energy Trend from conventional to energy-neutral greenhouses
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Figure 41: Base map of ‘Global Solidarity’-scenario (SREX research team, 2008)
6.4.3
Strategies from Global Solidarity workshop session
It can be concluded that the clear distinction between dense urban agglomeration and remote rural villages asks for different energy+space solutions. Although the physical distances are rather short (<5km between most villages) it has been suggested to look at the urban and rural areas from a different perspective. Whereas, urban densities allow for district heating, villages and remote farms should aim for autarkic solutions. At the same time, the vast agricultural lands offer space for energy harvest (e.g. fermentation to biogas, 2nd generation biomass and biofuels, wind turbines). Despite the possible energy self-sufficiency of the villages, public transportation must be improved. This accounts for the connections between villages as well as between villages and the cities of Emmen and Coevorden. Energy in general should be assimilated and converted within the region. Greenhouse gas emissions, in contrast, may be accounted for outside the region if that appears more efficient that inside South-East Drenthe.
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Figure 42: Photograph of the original sketch design from the Global Solidarity workshop session All strategies that have come forward within the workshop session on Global Solidarity have been clustered into the following sub-groups: Contextual information, spatial structure, greenhouses, industry, farms, mobility, targets/objectives. At the moment, we have not included any reference photographs or diagrams in order to keep the document more concise. They could, of course, be added if that is required. Contextual information Plans exist to drill for oil near Schoonebeek. This would lead to increase of CO2 emission by 10% (or 500.000 ton/year) → Compensation via use of geothermal energy? → Compensation in other regions perhaps more efficient! Large fraction of the buildings program 2020 already constructed → difficult to change existing building structure (especially newly built) Abundance of residual heat from e.g. Emmtec in Emmen Expected increase in wellness tourism and recreation in South-East Drenthe Spatial structure Clear distinction between rural areas with ribbon villages/remote farms (→ both autarkic) and urban areas (→ district heating with e.g. industry as source) Densification of existing villages, remote farms autarkic! Living and working in proximity can help saving fuels Longitudinal village structure asks for special solutions public transportation Greenhouses Greenhouses as energy producers Greenhouses in combination with living
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Industry Present heavy industry in South-East Drenthe e.g. fibers, IT (Eriksson), sensor technology (LOFAR) → New industry to match available energy? Industrial terrain with flat roofs → PV installation Energy input/output as criteria of the environmental assessment plan for every new business development? Attract industry to use existing residual heat in the industrial park Farms Rural area as energy source to urban agglomerations (=energy sink) Farmers ferment manure and organic waste and supply biogas to entire region Possible utilization of existing local and regional gas-grids Mobility Need to improve public transportation in rural area, especially between villages (this may lead to energy savings from individual car transportation) Support preference of bicycle over car transportation (now the case) nd Small coaches for (rural) transportation (run on 2 generation biodiesel) Targets/Objectives Search for a robust system that can sustain over longer periods of time and possible changes, e.g. subsidy from the government! Electricity easiest energy carrier → apartments run on electricity, heat only where access heat is available Geothermal energy rather difficult since cost intensive and all greenhouses energy neutral (better saving energy instead of allocating too much money) List of participants global solidarity workshop session: Sven Stremke (WUR), Siebe Broersma, Em. Prof. Jon Kristinsson (TU Delft), Rens Wijnacker (student WUR), Gerard Wijnacker (prov. Drenthe), Nanka Karstkarel (RUG), Rudi Genglers (Gemeente Emmen), Johan Schuitemaker (Student RuG), Klaas-Jan Noorman (prov. Drenthe).
6.4.4
Reflections on the Global Solidarity workshop session
For the reflections on the workshop session in relation to the larger context of the research project, I have chosen to compare the above list of strategies with the initial list of SREX strategies and measures prepared in September/October 2008. For this list, the researchers have used their expertise to gather possible interventions into the region as it now exists. The below comparison distinguishes (a) major consistencies between the SREX vision and the findings during the workshop session and (b) major inconsistencies. Major consistencies Energy provision and GHG sequestering can take place outside the region Transport is an important aspect of the global solidarity scenario Energy neutral greenhouses realistic and needed (greenhouses = source, not sink) Tourism is perceived as major source of income that can further expand Major inconsistencies Instead of abolishing oil use, new plans for oil extraction where put forward No concrete ideas for energy assimilation outside the region (during workshop) Railroad has not been discussed as important alternative mode of transportation Participants don’t expect densification of existing urban fabric (i.e. new dwellings) Energy infrastructure of less or almost no concern during the brainstorming Comparing the results of the South-East Drenthe workshop with the ideas gathered for South Limburg allows a number of additional conclusions. First of all, second generation biomass harvest, which is an eminent strategy in Limburg, does not appear on the list of strategies discussed in Drenthe. The same is true for combined heat power provision (CHP), neither in the urban nor in the rural areas.
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Furthermore, energy saving measures (e.g. lower EPC in new dwellings) has not been an issue during the workshop. We suspect that such, more detailed strategies have not been discussed partially due to time constraints and partially due to the heterogenity of the group of participants. With such a mixed group of stakeholders, some time is “lost” in transition - that is time to discuss fundamental (and often) political choices in a region. However, we found the brainstorming session extremely valuable for our further research as it not only added new information but made us aware of some of the region-specific challenges and preferences in South-East Drenthe.
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7
CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK
By Andy van den Dobbelsteen The case study of South-East Drenthe has brought us various insights as to the potentials and restrictions in the region. The scenario approach clarified sustainable solutions or planning interventions that are possible and logical with every future scenario, whereas some of them strongly depend on one or two possible scenarios for the future. In general, all scenarios to some extent make use of local potentials, which lie in available biomass and waste heat flows already present. Solar and wind energy is always possible yet not always effective. The potential of the (deep) underground is not yet fully clear. South-East Drenthe offers possibilities of better tuning of supply and demand of heat and cold. The region could be organised according to a very low-exergy system based on exchange of waste heat. In this case, it would not need high-caloric energy values except for some industrial processes. Old buildings would need to be renovated to improve energy performance (e-novation). New developments could be established on an energy-neutral basis. A second system would use the high-caloric heat from the underground. Ideally, this heat would be used for old existing buildings that still require high-temperature heating systems. Lower-quality energy from greenhouses could be used for new housing developments. Heat cascading would be less extensive as in the first principle. Until this report we have been engaged mainly in explorative studies of the region, using the scenario method to get our fingers behind robust sustainable solutions for whichever future. As of now we are focussing on the continuation of this case study in the direction of one strategy rather than multiple scenarios for a low-exergetic South-East Drenthe. The studies currently undertaken will be discussed in a follow-up of the first workshop, again with stakeholders of the region. Thereby we hope to contribute to sustainable development of this part of the Netherlands, whereas we can enhance our methodology, in order to make it applicable to other regions anywhere in the world.
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Regionale-Planungsgemeinschaft-Lausitz-Spreewald, 2007, Energieatlas (Regional Planungsstelle Lausitz-Spreewald, Cottbus) Rotmans J, Kemp R, Asselt M v, 2001, "More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policy" Foresight 3 1-17 RPB, 2008, "Nieuwe Kaart van Nederland [New map of the Netherlands] " (Ruimtelijk Planbureau, Den Haag) Salet W, Faludi A, 2000, "Three approaches to strategic spatial planning" in The revival of strategic spatial planning Eds W Salet, A Faludi (Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences, Amsterdam) pp 1-10 Senternovem; Cijfers en tabellen 2007; SenterNovem, Utrecht, 2008 SREX; Maps South East Drenthe, SREX, 2008 Gommans LJJHM; Catalogue for conversion, storage and transport of energy (under construction); TU Delft, 2009 Sieferle R P, 2001, The Subterranean forest: Energy systems and the industrial revolution (The White Horse Press, Cambridge) Smil V, 2003, Energy at the crossroads: Global perspectives and uncertainties (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA) Smil V, 2008, Energy in nature and society: General energetics of complex systems (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA) Steinitz C, 1990, "A framework for theory applicable to the education of landscape architects (and other design professionals)" Landscape Journal 9 136-143 Steinitz C, 2002, "On teaching ecological principles to designers" in Ecology and design: Frameworks for learning Eds B Johnson, K Hill (Island Press, Washington, DC) pp 231-244 Steinitz C, 2003, Alternative futures for changing landscapes: The Upper San Pedro River Basin in Arizona and Sonora (Island Press, Washington, DC) Steinitz C, Faris R, Flaxman M, Vargas-Moreno J C, Huang G, Lu S-Y, Canfield T, Arizpe Ó, Ángeles M, Cariño M, Santiago F, III T M, Lambert C, Baird K, Godínez L, 2006, "Alternative futures for the region of La Paz Baja California Sur, Mexico" (Harvard University, Boston) UNEP, 2007, GEO4 Global environmental outlook (United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi) Van Leeuwen C G, 1981, "From ecosystem to ecodevice" in International congress organized for landscape ecology (Veldhoven, the Netherlands, April 6-11, 1981) Eds S P Tjallingii, A A d Veer (Pudoc, Wageningen) pp. 29-35
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APPENDICES
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A1
Energieverbruik wijken in Emmen Inschatting energievraag Emmermeer
Emmermeer heeft overwegend geschakelde laagbouw (rijtjeswoningen) met daartussen gestapelde bouw in blokken van 3 a 4 lagen hoog. Emmermeer oost is gebouwd tussen 1950 en 1960 voornamelijk voor werknemers van ENKA (http://www.historischemmen.nl/f_300_wijken_buurten/f_301_emmermeer/p_301_1.htm). Rond 2000 is er plaatselijk gesloopt, waar oude woningen niet meer aan de eisen voldeden en is er nieuwbouw gerealiseerd. Er wonen ca. 10.000 inwoners. Uitgaande van 50% gestapelde bouw en 50% laagbouw, een woningbezetting van 2,5 inwoners per woning, is het energieverbruik voor ruimte- en tapwaterverwarming ingeschat op 3.500 m3 a.e per jaar, waarvan 500 voor tapwaterverwarming. De meeste woningen zullen individuele verwarming hebben (combigasketel met radiatoren). Het energieverbruik voor elektriciteit is ingeschat op 4.000 kWh per woning. De 4.000 woningen in Emmermeer gebruiken daarmee 12.000.000 m3 a.e. voor ruimteverwarming (90/70) en 2.000.000 m3 a.e. voor tapwater van 70oC. Het elektriciteitgebruik is ingeschat op 16.000.0000 kWh.
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Indeling woningttypen naar bouwjaar en energetische karakteristieken voor 1920 Ongeisoleerde steens buitenwanden en enkel glas Natuurlijke ventilatie en veel kieren in gebouwschil Kachel en geiser voor verwarming Energieverbruik ca. 5.000 m3 per woning 1920-1945 Spouwmuur buitenwand zonder isolatie en enkel glas Natuurlijke ventilatie en veel kieren in gebouwschil Kachel en geiser voor verwarming Energieverbruik ca. 4.000 m3 a.e. per woning 1945-1972 Spouwmuur buitenwand zonder isolatie en enkel glas Natuurlijke ventilatie en veel kieren in gebouwschil Blokverwarming met radiatoren en geiser voor verwarming Energieverbruik ca. 4.000 m3 a.e. per woning 1972-1983 (na energiecrisis) Spouwmuur buitenwand 30mm isolatie en dubbel glas in woonkamer Natuurlijke ventilatie en klepramen en kieren in gebouwschil Blokverwarming en geiser voor verwarming Energieverbruik ca. 3.000 m3 a.e. per woning 1983-1994 Spouwmuur buitenwand 50mm isolatie en overal dubbel glas Mechanische afzuiging en klepramen, kierdichting Combiketel voor tapwater en ruimteverwarming (90/70) Energieverbruik ca. 2.000 m3 a.e. per woning 1994-2005 Spouwmuur buitenwand 100mm isolatie en overal HR+ glas Mechanische afzuiging en klepramen, kierdichting HR-Combiketel voor tapwater en ruimteverwarming (70/50) Energieverbruik ca. 1.500 m3 a.e. per woning Na 2005 Spouwmuur buitenwand 120mm isolatie en overal HR++ glas Gebalanceerde ventilatie met 90% warmteterugwinning HR107-combiketel en blok/stadverwarming met vloerverwarming (50/35) Zonnecollectoren en warmtepompen, soms koeling met warmtepomp Trend naar all electric (geen gas-aansluiting) m.n. bij warmtenet Energieverbruik ca. 1.000 m3 a.e. per woning Bronnen: 50 jaar energiebesparing
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A2
Uitgangspunten voor de 4 regiospecifieke scenario’s (Zuid-Oost Drenthe)
Leo Gommans, Ferry Van Kann, Nanka Karstkarel, Sven Stremke & Wouter Leduc Deze verhaallijnen en de keuze voor de mogelijke technieken zijn gebaseerd op de WLO-scenario’s van de Nederlandse Planbureaus. Onze focus ligt met name op de energie-ruimte consequenties. Wij hebben bij de keuze van de technieken voor de verschillende scenario’s een onderscheid gemaakt tussen de regionale scenario’s, die de oplossingen meer lokaal zoeken – binnen de regio, Zuid-Oost Drenthe, en kleinschalig – en de mondiale scenario’s die de oplossingen meer op een wereldschaal zoeken en grootschalig zijn. De solidariteit scenario’s besteden meer aandacht aan mens en milieu (multifunctioneel) dan de efficiency scenario’s (monofunctioneel). Die focussen meer op economie. De efficiency scenario’s hebben meer monofunctionele technieken, tegenover meer multifunctionele techniek bij de solidariteit scenario’s.
A2.1
Mondiale Markt – Global Market
Context De algemene kenmerken van dit scenario zijn een open en mondiale markt, en een voortgaande mondialisering en liberalisering. De wereld denkt kapitalistisch en is marktgeoriënteerd. Er is een hoge mate van economische en technologische ontwikkeling. De burgers zijn individualistisch en materialistisch ingesteld. Het in standhouden van de welvaartstaat (sociale aspecten) is geen prioriteit en de interesse voor de kwaliteit van de leefomgeving neemt af. Met andere woorden er blijft een sterk monofunctionele focus, ook op het gebied van energie en ruimte, waarbij economy of scale een belangrijk principe blijft. Energie en transport Om aan de voortdurend groeiende vraag naar energie, in alle sectoren, te voldoen, wordt in dit scenario grootschalig gebruik gemaakt van fossiele brandstoffen – olie, gas en kolen. Deze fossiele brandstoffen worden meestal op conventionele wijze geconverteerd en gedistribueerd, denk bijv. aan verbranding. De brandstoffen zelf zijn in feite de energieopslag zelf. Ze worden uit de bodem gehaald als ze nodig zijn, zodat er weinig energieopslag nodig is. Distributie van energie gebeurt via pijpleidingen, over de weg en over het water, efficiënt met grote hoeveelheden. Verbranding gebeurt ook efficiënt, op een grote schaal, het liefst om alleen elektriciteit op te wekken omdat deze eenvoudig en tegen lage kosten over relatief grote afstanden, met hoge spanning, gedistribueerd kan worden naar de afnemers. Elektriciteit is een veelzijdige energiebron die bij de afnemer voor diverse doelen gebruikt kan worden: kracht/machines, apparatuur/verlichting, koeling en verwarming. Gebruik van restwarmte uit de elektriciteitproductie of andere vormen van restwarmtegebruik zijn economisch niet interessant vanwege de hoge kosten van een warmtedistributienet. Omdat het efficiënt is, wordt wel warmte afgezet binnen of dichtbij de eigen locatie. Allereerst worden de mogelijkheden voor toepassing van de warmte binnen de eigen industriële locatie geëxploreerd, bijv. restwarmte van de fabriek wordt gebruikt voor het verwarmen van de kantoren van het bedrijf. Als tweede worden ook verbindingen met dichtbij gelegen warmtevragers, zoals woonwijken of kantoorcomplexen, als mogelijk interessant gezien. Een derde mogelijkheid is aansluiting op bestaande, dichtbij gelegen warmtenetten. Voor transportmiddelen, zoals auto’s, schepen en vliegtuigen, is opslag van energie wel belangrijk, omdat deze transportmiddelen niet met een netwerk verbonden kunnen worden als er een flexibel bereik mee nagestreefd wordt. Opslag van energie in de vorm van geraffineerde fossiele energiedragers – diesel, kerosine, benzine en LPG – is dan het meest economisch. Dit komt omdat deze dragers een relatief grote energiedichtheid bij een laag gewicht en kleine inhoud hebben bij opslag. Met de hoge energiedichtheid kan op een efficiënte wijze, een groot gebied op vele plaatsen bereikt worden. Vanwege het al aanwezige fijnmazige gasnet, zijn geen extra investeringen nodig om aardgas te distribueren. Dus voor Nederland en ook Zuid-Oost Drenthe is aardgas een economisch rendabele bron voor lokale warmteopwekking.
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Bij een ‘Mondiale Markt’-scenario vinden we winplaatsen van de fossiele brandstoffen zowel binnen als buiten het gezichtsveld van Zuid-Oost Drenthe. De fossiele brandstof wordt, meestal over water, efficiënt naar overslagpunten gebracht en daar grootschalig direct omgezet in elektrische energie. Dat wil zeggen dat de elektriciteitcentrales aan de waterwegen liggen, meestal direct aan zee bij een haven. Hier kan ook op eenvoudige wijze de afvalwarmte geloosd worden in het zeewater. Daarnaast biedt zeker onder de conditie van een redelijk hoge olieprijs oliewinning in en nabij Schoonebeek een bron van energie. Omdat Zuid-Oost Drenthe niet over grote waterwegen beschikt, verwachten we niet dat er nieuwe centrales worden gebouwd. De elektriciteit wordt met hoogspanningskabels gedistribueerd naar de steden en industriegebieden, waarbij de industriegebieden vanwege grootschalige grondstoffentoevoer meestal ook bij de haven liggen. Het wonen ligt verder van de industrie omdat hier veiligheidszones omheen liggen. Arbeiders pendelen dagelijks met hun auto tussen werken en wonen. Transportbrandstof wordt met grote tankauto’s naar de tankstations nabij de steden gebracht. Goederen worden ook vervoerd via het water. Ook hier geldt de economy of scale. In de steden wordt door de bewoners elektriciteit gebruikt voor alle energetische behoeften, inclusief het op een lokaal schone wijze verwarmen van ruimtes. Al zien we voor Nederland en Zuid-Oost Drenthe wel nog mogelijkheden voor lokale verwarming met aardgas, omwille van de economisch gunstige omstandigheden. Warmtepompen voor efficiëntere opwekking van warmte met elektriciteit evenals andere energiebesparende maatregelen aan gebouwen, worden weinig toegepast omdat deze zich niet snel genoeg terugverdienen. Wel veronderstellen we dat bij de nieuwbouw strengere EPC-eisen gaan gelden en worden toegepast. Nieuwbouw zal gebeuren volgens strenge bouweisen, waarbij de nadruk vooral licht bij toepassen van een hoge isolatiegraad en passief zonneenergiegebruik. Dit scenario richt zich op economische efficiëntie en daarom is de toepassing van duurzame bronnen, zoals biomassa en wind- en zonne-energie, of energiebesparing niet interessant. Maar als de prijzen voor fossiele brandstoffen boven een bepaalde grens uitkomen, kunnen duurzame bronnen als vanzelf wel economisch gunstig worden. Dan zullen regiospecifieke kansen voor duurzame bronnen ook autonoom ontwikkelen. Voor Zuid-Oost Drenthe betekent dit met name kansen voor biomassa en geothermie. Ruimte In dit scenario is een ontwikkeling zichtbaar naar intensievere veeteelt, melkveehouderij en tuinbouw. Hierbij kan voor Zuid-Oost Drenthe gedacht worden aan de ontwikkeling van varkensflats. Deze ontwikkelingen zullen ook leiden tot meer mest. Alle functies uit de samenleving worden heel geconcentreerd gegroepeerd, want dit is economisch gunstig. Ook voor de glastuinbouw geldt, dat een sterke groei van deze efficiënte productiefaciliteiten verwacht wordt. Vanuit de gedachte dat ruimtelijke functies monofunctioneel, maar wel grootschalig ontwikkelen, zijn de bestaande locaties in Erica en Klazienaveen een soort groeibrilliant. Hierdoor ontstaat wel een soort van eilandstructuur van de verschillende functies met bijv. op één plaats geconcentreerde industrie, op een andere plaats landbouw en op nog een andere plaats wonen. De functies liggen meer verspreid en dit leidt tot meer transport. Een concentratie van nieuwbouw in de stedelijke gebieden, en daarbinnen in de steden, wordt verondersteld. Door de veranderende demografie zien we een vragende trend naar meer zorgcentra en minder scholen. De dienstensector breidt verder nog uit door het bouwen van meer kantoren, in een geconcentreerd gebied – de ontwikkeling van ‘commercial parks’. De basisindustrie – papier, chemicaliën en metaal – die nu aanwezig is in Zuid-Oost Drenthe blijft bestaan en kent mogelijk zelfs uitbreiding. De toegenomen verspreiding en transport vraagt om uitbreiding van de infrastructuur. Tot slot is er weinig interesse om nieuwe natuurgebieden te ontwikkelen. Natuurkwaliteit is geen item, het gaat om aantrekkelijke gebruiksnatuur. Ontwerpcriteria: Business as usual Uitstel van een energietransitie Hoogspanningleidingen vormen de ruggegraat van het energiesysteem Nieuwe stroomverbindingen, ook internationaal, worden verwacht Geen extra stroomverbindingen tussen steden Deze nieuwe stroomverbindingen komen hoofdzakelijk langs bestaande infrastructuur Ook de gasleidingen blijven, evenals de LPG-leidingen
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Kolengestookte krachtcentrales worden niet in de regio verwacht, vanwege gebrek aan koelwater en de lange aanvoerlijnen van de steenkool. Dat betekent geen nieuwe grote krachtcentrales in Zuid-Oost Drenthe Restwarmteprojecten ontstaan op sommige plekken meer toevallig door gunstige locale omstandigheden Op die plekken waar sinks in de directe omgeving liggen van een source (monofunctioneel) Restwarmte van zeer nabije industrie kan bij bestaande warmtenetten fossiele bronnen vervangen Localiseer nieuwe sinks naast bestaande bronnen van restwarmte
A2.2
Veilige Regio – Secure Region
Context Culturele identiteit en traditionele waarden zijn belangrijk in dit scenario. Dit leidt tot een stop van de mondialisering en het uiteenvallen van de wereld in protectionistische regio’s. Zekere energie- en materiaalstromen uit het buitenland behoren tot het verleden. Dit scenario wordt gekenmerkt door een streven naar zelfvoorziening, ieder voor zich. Ofschoon daarmee de eigen leefomgeving belangrijk is, staan economische efficiëntie en voorzieningszekerheid als belangrijke peilers te boek. Energie en transport In het ‘Veilige Regio’-scenario is een toename zichtbaar van de energievraag in de industrie. De energievraag van de andere sectoren blijft gelijk. In dit scenario wordt zoveel mogelijk gebruik gemaakt van lokaal aanwezige energiebronnen, die er in het relatief dunbevolkte Zuid-Oost wel zijn. Er dient wel inventief in de omgeving gezocht te worden en alle mogelijke lokale opties dienen te worden onderzocht. Dit alles staat in het teken van het streven naar zelfvoorziening. Het heropenen van de oliewinning moet gezien worden vanuit dat standpunt van regionale zelfvoorziening. Naast zelfvoorziening is ook het financiële, economische aspect belangrijk. Ook andere energiebronnen en afval beginnen interessant te worden om het te verbranden voor energieproductie. Zo wordt lokaal vercomposteerd GFT-afval met huishoudelijk en industrieel afval verbrand, om er elektriciteit en warmte van te maken. Ook wordt uit rioolwater methaangas gewonnen en wordt het gedroogde rioolslib verbrand in ovens om er elektriciteit en warmte uit te halen. De energiecentrales, WKK’s, zijn meestal klein en liggen in de gebouwde omgeving zodat de geproduceerde warmte ook voor de gebouwde omgeving gebruikt kan worden. De centrales worden gevoed met verschillende lokaal geproduceerde energiedragers zoals methaangas, mijngas, steenkool, gedroogd rioolslib, bermgras, in de regio grootschalig geproduceerde afval-pellets of lokaal geproduceerde, eerste generatie, biomassa. Naast lokale energiebronnen is ook het beperken van het lokale energiegebruik belangrijk. Gebouwen zijn goed geïsoleerd en er worden energie-efficiënte installaties gebruikt, voor zover dit economisch verantwoord is. Hoog-rendement-verlichting, warmteterugwinning uit ventilatielucht, warmtepompen en andere technieken worden gebruikt om lokaal de energiebehoefte zo laag mogelijk te houden, zodat zo min mogelijk geïmporteerd hoeft te worden. Indien lokaal toch te weinig energiedragers aanwezig zijn, wordt gebruik gemaakt van kolen, olie, gas en mogelijk kernenergie binnen de EU. Omdat wonen en werken nog steeds gescheiden liggen, kan daar waar de afstand niet te groot is, industriële restwarmte getransporteerd worden naar de woningen omwille van een gunstige economische efficiency. Meestal gebeurt dit niet omdat de investering in het net hoog is en bedrijven zich, omwille van economische motieven, niet voor lange tijd willen vastleggen voor levering van warmte. Zonder regionale initiatieven wordt dus per woning gebruik gemaakt van individuele verwarming met behulp van houtkachels, pelletkachels of elektriciteit, soms met tussenkomst van een warmtepomp die gebruik maakt van warmte uit de directe omgeving als bron. Nieuw te bouwen woningen moeten aan strengere eisen voldoen: verstrengde EPC-eisen en lagere warmte- en elektriciteitsvraag, zodat de woningen minder energie moeten importeren. Distributie van energie over grotere afstanden blijft beperkt tot elektriciteit via het net. Opslag van energie is meestal gebouwgebonden en blijft daarom slechts voor beperkte tijd (dag of week) opgeslagen. In combinatie met warmtepompen wordt soms de bodem gebruikt als warmte/koude (W/K)-opslag of als geothermische bron. Er zijn dus wel mogelijkheden voor kleinschalige cascades, bijv. tussen industrie en kantoren op eenzelfde locatie of bijv. tussen woningen met een verschillende warmtevraag, maar echte warmtenetten zullen zich niet gaan ontwikkelen. Dit wordt naast het economische aspect, mede veroorzaakt door het feit dat de verschillende functies te verspreid (monofunctioneel) liggen.
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Vanwege het beperkte transport en transportafstanden is het rijden met elektrische auto’s interessant. Voornamelijk worden echter olieproducten gebruikt voor transport, doch ook rijden op biomassa – plantaardige oliën en ethanol – zijn alternatieven. Indien deze brandstoffen direct afkomstig zijn van energiegewassen, legt dat een behoorlijke druk op het grondgebruik waardoor alle groen in de omgeving opgeslokt wordt door landbouw voor voedsel en energie. Nieuwe technieken, zoals fermentatie en pyrolyse, maken het mogelijk om brandstoffen te maken uit afval. Theoretisch gezien is er minder ruimte nodig, maar omdat er sowieso te weinig ruimte is, zal de druk op het landschap en ruimtegebruik niet afnemen. Ruimte Dit scenario wordt gekenmerkt door de bouw van minder huizen, maar aan de andere kant gaat de bebouwing zich verspreiden. Burgers vertonen een toegenomen interesse voor het leven in ruraal gebied. Door een hernieuwde focus op zelfvoorziening ontwikkelen de voormalige esdorpen in ZuidOost Drenthe zich tot nieuwe E-dorpen (energie/exergie). Door de toegenomen interesse voor de regionale verwerking van het groenafval, worden meer biogasinstallaties gebouwd en ontwikkelen zich vormen van biomassaopslag. Het industrieareaal blijft nagenoeg gelijk, wel zien we een toename van de voedingsindustrie. Voor de glastuinbouw wordt verwacht, dat het moeilijk is om de afzetmarkten te behouden. Het aantal boerderijen neemt af en de boeren gaan op zoek naar een extra bron van inkomsten. Multifunctioneel landgebruik op kleine schaal raakt in zwang. Boerderijrecreatie komt opzetten en het landschap wordt maximaal geëxploiteerd om te voorzien in de recreatieve behoeften. Ontwerpcriteria: In principe moeten alle energiebronnen uit de regio zelf komen Daarbij is voorzieningszekerheid, of evt. financiën belangrijker dan duurzaamheid Aanwezige fossiele brandstoffen in de eigen bodem worden weer gewonnen Op huishoudniveau vindt warmte/koude opslag/geothermie plaats door de bodempotentie overal te gebruiken RWZI’s worden gebruikt als energiebron Afvalverzamelpunten bij bestaande complexen, dichtbij de al bebouwde omgeving en kleinschalig Kleinschalige warmtenetten in de buurt van restwarmtepunten Biomassaverwerking in het esdorplandschap bij ontwikkeling van nieuwe woongebieden Alle bestaande warmtenetten blijven Industriële complexen leiden tot lokale energiecascadering Extra ruimtedruk Het bouwland wordt als oppervlak van potentie voor biomassa (groen) gezien Het urbaan gebied wordt als oppervlak van potentie voor biomassa (grijs/bruin) gezien Windenergie wordt gewonnen op beste locaties, niet in vallei of dorpen Decentraliteit of het laagst mogelijke schaalniveau zijn een ontwerpcriterium RWZI als energiebron met CHP als het in de buurt is van een bestaande warmtenet, of als het in de buurt is van nieuwe woongebieden RWZI als energiebron als biogasproducent (gebruik netwerk), als niet in de buurt van bestaand warmtenet, of nieuwe woongebieden Voeg een sink toe aan sources
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A2.3
Zorgzame Regio – Caring Region
Context Dit scenario wordt gekenmerkt door economisch protectionistisch beleid, gericht op zelfvoorziening. De overheid is verantwoordelijk voor aspecten als milieu en sociale cohesie. Binnen de regio is er een grote betrokkenheid ten aanzien van milieukwaliteit en sociale aspecten. Dit scenario wordt verder nog gekenmerkt door weinig mobiliteit van mensen, kapitaal en kennis, en lage economische ontwikkeling. Kleinschaligheid en multifunctionaliteit gaan hand in hand bij het vinden van regiospecifieke integrale energie-ruimte concepten. Energie en transport In het ‘Zorgzame Regio’-scenario neemt de energievraag af voor alle sectoren. De beschreven technieken uit het ‘Veilige Regio’-scenario horen enigszins ook thuis in het ‘Zorgzame Regio’-scenario. Daarbij moet wel worden opgemerkt dat voor de toegepaste technieken sociale en milieuaspecten belangrijker worden gevonden dan economische. Dit scenario streeft naar de toepassing van meer hernieuwbare energiebronnen, zoals biomassa en duurzame bronnen – tweede stap van de Trias Energetica, en naar een beperking van de energievraag – eerste stap van de Trias Energetica. Exergetische efficiëntie heeft een belangrijke plaats. Daarnaast wordt gestreefd naar het vermijden van het gebruik van fossiele brandstoffen. Het verbranden van afval voor de energieproductie levert in de directe omgeving uitstoot van schadelijke stoffen op die met andere technieken afgevangen moeten worden. Het alleen maar productief gebruiken van het onbebouwde land levert weinig belevingswaarde voor de mens en er wordt gekozen om het aangename met het noodzakelijke te verenigen. Er ontstaat een gebalanceerd landbouwgebruik: intensief waar nodig, extensief waar mogelijk. De traditie van het esdorp keert terug in nieuwe vormen. Het idee van de ‘Living Machine’ en de ontwikkeling van algenvijvers dichtbij rioolwaterzuiveringsinstallaties (RWZI’s) passen in dit beeld. Algenvijvers worden bij RWZI’s gelokaliseerd omdat de algengroei veel warmte vraagt en die warmte een restproduct is van RWZI’s. Dit illustreert tevens het regiospecifieke en integrale karakter van de verwachte energieruimte concepten. Dichter bij de bebouwde kom, leeft de boer die de producten voor de inwoners van de stad produceert. Met behulp van afval uit de stad en van het extensief beheerd landschap, produceert de boer materialen, voedsel en energie, op intensief gebruikte grond, aan de stadsrand. Er ontstaat zo een zonering van cultuur (stad) naar natuur (landschap), die leidt tot diversiteit, zowel op urbane als rurale schaal. De urbane zijde van de ruimtelijke zonering herbergt een W/K-net – toepassing van cascadering – evenals verkeerswegen die voorzien in de behoefte van de stad. Aan de randen van de stad liggen dus de agrarische bedrijven en industrie, die de stad voeden met consumptieartikelen doch ook het afval van stad en landschap gebruiken en recyclen zodat het weer voeding wordt. Deze afvalproducten en de biomassa worden voorbehandeld in de regio van oorsprong. Daarvoor is meer opslagcapaciteit noodzakelijk en dat kan o.a. worden opgevangen door opslag in biomassa. In dit scenario verwachten we de ontwikkeling van nieuwe wetgeving die meer op duurzaamheid is gericht. Een warmte-, koude- en afvalwet zou moeten ontwikkeld worden zodat actoren gedwongen worden een andere oplossing dan lozing te zoeken. Het is voor deze verduurzaming wel van belang dat het legale aspect op een grotere schaal wordt behandeld: landelijk of zelfs op EU-niveau. De bouwwetten moeten ook strikter worden zodat bij nieuwbouwprojecten steeds de meest strikte duurzaamheideisen gelden. Dit geldt zowel voor nieuwbouw van huizen, maar ook uitbreiding van kantoorcomplexen en industrieën. We verwachten bij nieuwbouw van, voornamelijk, woningen twee nieuwe ontwikkelingen: nieuwbouwwoningen, aangesloten op een warmtenet, worden LowEx-woningen – woningen waarbij de lage energievraag geleverd wordt door laagwaardige en/of hernieuwbare energiebronnen; nieuwbouwwoningen buiten het warmtenet zullen autarkisch worden. Ruimte Dit scenario wordt gekenmerkt door de ontwikkeling van minder nieuwe huizen en een afgenomen interesse voor het leven in de grote stad. Aan de andere kant wordt dit scenario gekenmerkt door inbreiding en compact (ver)bouwen van bestaande dorps- en kleinere stadskernen. De natuur blijft wel gevrijwaard, burgers gaan niet midden in de natuur wonen. De term gebundelde deconcentratie is hier van toepassing. Er is een trend zichtbaar naar gebalanceerde landbouwactiviteiten, de boer moet op zoek naar een extra inkomen. Een mogelijkheid is de combinatie met de toegenomen vraag naar zorg – ontwikkeling van zorgboerderijen. Andere mogelijkheden zijn vormen van natuurbeheer of recreatie. Er is minder transport in het algemeen en een toegenomen interesse voor openbaar vervoer, wat
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energie efficiënter kan worden aangepakt. Nieuwe infrastructuur wordt nauwelijks aangelegd. Tot slot zien we in de tuinbouw ook een ontwikkeling naar meer integrale concepten. De tuinbouwkas ontwikkelt in de richting van “de Zonneterp”. Kortom, afgestemd op de omgeving en in wisselwerking met andere ruimtelijke functies. Ontwerpcriteria: Lokale energiepotenties, hoofdzakelijk hernieuwbaar en afval, krijgen een plek Bij het benutten van nieuwe energiebronnen spelen meer aspecten (duurzaam, ppp) een rol Bos en de EHS worden gebruikt als bron van biomassa (2e generatie) Huidige warmtenetten blijven intact De verbranding van fossiele brandstoffen wordt vervangen door biomassa Voorbehandeling van biomassa vindt plaats aan de rand van de stad of bij de bron Zonnepanelen op de daken van gebouwen (pv bij industrie, collectoren bij huizen) Windmolenpark langs lijninfrastructuur op relatief hoge plekken, windpotentie en inpassing Kleinschalige windmolens in landelijk gebied en op bedrijventerreinen De bodem als bron of opslagmedium voor warmte wordt alleen gebruikt buiten grondwaterbeschermingsgebieden En binnen de beschermingsgebieden alleen op plekken met een zeer goede potentie De RWZI wordt gezien als energiebron Energiecascadering is een optie, als ook opslag in de tijd mogelijk is (bijvoorbeeld in de mijnen) RWZI met CHP als in buurt gelegen van een warmtenet RWZI met CHP en algen voor brandstoffen, als in de buurt van autowegen en geschikte oppervlakte voor algenvijvers RWZI als biogasbron, indien 1 en 2 niet mogelijk zijn Kortom, diversiteit en (bio)ritmes worden gebruikt als designcriterium
A2.4
Mondiale Solidariteit – Global Solidarity
Context In dit scenario zijn culturele identiteit en traditionele waarden belangrijk. De samenleving vertoont een trend naar een duurzame economische ontwikkeling, via institutionele sturing. Alle actoren van de samenleving hebben aandacht voor milieu en sociale aspecten van het leven. Zowel top-down als botttom-up initiatieven worden uitgevoerd. De welvaart wordt verdeeld over alle niveaus en er is een vrije uitwisseling van kennis en technologie. Dit scenario wordt verder nog gekenmerkt door een hoge mate van aandacht voor natuur en milieu. Energie en transport In het ‘Mondiale Solidariteit’-scenario neemt de groei van de energievraag in de industrie toe, maar in andere sectoren neemt de energievraag af. Dit scenario gaat er van uit dat de belasting voor mens en milieu niet per definitie lokaal opgelost moet worden. Misschien is het wel veel efficiënter om de energie ergens anders te produceren. Binnen dit scenario past het besef dat lokale oplossingen gevolgen kunnen hebben voor andere plekken op de wereld of nog erger later in de tijd – de Brundtland-definitie van Duurzame Ontwikkeling. Dit scenario streeft naar een verlaging van de CO2voetafdruk. We zullen daarom, gedacht vanuit de wereldschaal, technieken inzetten die deze niet gewenste effecten op mens en milieu, minimaliseren. Om dit te kunnen realiseren zal een onderlinge solidariteit aanwezig moeten zijn, die gebaseerd is op een eerlijke verdeling van voedsel, kennis en gezondheidszorg. Niet alleen delen op een lokale schaal, doch ook op wereldschaal en door de jaren heen. In de huidige democratie hebben toekomstige generatie niets te kiezen; hun mogelijkheden worden gekozen door de huidige democratische generatie. Er ontstaat een solidariteit gebaseerd op economische peilers met recht op voedsel, materie en energie voor elke wereldburger, een voorwaarde voor vrede en stabiliteit, waardoor dit scenario en de daarbij horende technieken gerealiseerd kunnen worden. Het geld dat in het verleden verdiend is met fossiele brandstoffen wordt ingezet om liefst grootschalig duurzame energie op te wekken en CO2 te binden. Daarbij wordt het geld, wat meer een vertegenwoordiger van arbeid en energie wordt dan van, fossiele, materialen, zo goed mogelijk besteed op de
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meest gunstige plek voor grootschalige opwekking van duurzame energie. Internationale CO2-handel en opslagmogelijkheden zijn aan de orde. Grootschalige zonnecentrales, CSP’s, verschijnen in de woestijnen, want daar leveren ze 3x zoveel energie op dan in Zuid-Oost Drenthe. Windparken komen in zee. De elektrische energie wordt vervolgens via kabels getransporteerd naar andere delen van de wereld. De elektriciteitnetwerken worden daardoor de zenuwen van de aardbol waarlangs een groot deel van deze hoogwaardige en veelzijdig te gebruiken energie wordt getransporteerd. Als er overschotten aan elektriciteit zijn, gaan de waterkrachtcentrales in bergrijke gebieden minder draaien zodat de stuwmeren in peil verhogen en bij tekorten gaan ze weer draaien, een vorm van elektriciteitopslag. Langs de kustlijnen vinden we grote windturbineparken die elektriciteit leveren, evenals osmosecentrales die uit zout- en zoetwater elektriciteit produceren. Andere mogelijkheden zijn golfenergiecentrales, getijdencentrales of het opwekken van energie door gebruik te maken van de zeestroming. Sommige van deze toepassingen van elektriciteitproductie, hebben eveneens een vorm van energieopslag, bijv. in de vorm van zoetwatervoorraad. Met het grootschalig kweken van algen in de zee, wordt gecontroleerd grondstof voor biobrandstof geproduceerd. Verdere opslag van energie vindt plaats in de vorm van biomassa die daarvoor speciaal gekweekt is of uit reststromen afkomstig is, en middels fermentatie, pyrolyse of andere biochemische processen omgezet wordt. Fermentatie resulteert voornamelijk in warmte die van belang is voor warmte-cascadering. Reststromen komen uit industrie, agrarische sector, uit de stad of de natuur en worden centraal, en gedeeltelijk lokaal, verzameld en verwerkt om energie uit te produceren. Voor een belangrijk deel is dit brandstof voor transport, te meer omdat er veel transport in dit scenario is. Uit de conversie van organische materialen komen naast energie, voedingsstoffen vrij, die naar de agrarische sectoren over de gehele wereld terug moeten, zodat deze sector geen kunstmest uit fossiele bronnen nodig heeft. Dit is een vorm van integrale toepassing zodat de uitgaande stroom van het ene proces, de ingaande stroom van een ander proces kan zijn. Er is veel aandacht voor scheidingsprocessen voor reststromen zodat de gezondheid van de mens en de natuur niet in gevaar komt. Biochemie wordt in Zuid-Oost Drenthe een belangrijke industrietak omdat hier van oudsher de voorwaarden, zoals kennis en materiaal, aanwezig zijn. De keuze voor biochemie komt ook voort uit het afnemende gebruik van olie in dit scenario. DSM en Tebodin en andere bedrijven op het EMMTEC-terrein gaan hun fossiele chemische kennis en fabrieken gebruiken voor de productie van Cradle to Cradle producten en grondstoffen, gebaseerd op biochemische processen, gefabriceerd uit reststromen uit de hele wereld. In dit scenario zijn ook goed de drie stappen van de Trias Energetica zichtbaar. Er is interesse voor het verminderen van de vraag, de samenleving zoekt naar oplossingen om energie te besparen: door isolatie en andere efficiënte technieken zoals warmtepompen, brandstofcellen e.d. wordt er op energie bespaard. Nieuwbouw moet voldoen aan heel strenge EPC-eisen en is verbonden met warmtenetten zodat de resterende warmtevraag met duurzame of reststromen kan voldaan worden. Duurzame bronnen worden wereldwijd, op grote schaal en op de meest efficiënte plaatsen toegepast. Het is minder gunstig om windturbines in Zuid-Oost Drenthe te plaatsen, want er zijn ander plaatsen waar veel meer wind kan gevangen worden. In dit scenario is een behoorlijk toenemend gebruik van aardgas waarneembaar. Aardgas is één van de schoonste fossiele bronnen die als transitiebrandstof voor Nederland, en dus ook Zuid-Oost Drenthe, kan dienen en zo efficiënt mogelijk zal worden toegepast. De belangrijkste energiedrager wordt elektriciteit omdat deze veelzijdig ingezet kan worden en eenvoudig via kabels kan worden getransporteerd. Snelle elektrisch treinen zorgen voor een belangrijk deel van het efficiënt transport van mensen en goederen over grotere afstanden. Voor vliegtuigen, schepen en wegtransport worden veelal biobrandstoffen gebruikt in verbrandingsmotoren (lange afstand – global scale). Goederentransport vindt ook plaats over het water. Bij transport over minder grote afstanden wordt ook wel direct elektriciteit gebruikt of een brandstofcel die waterstof afkomstig uit elektrolyse als brandstof gebruikt. Zo wordt voor steden en regio’s, met een hoge mate van dichtheid en te verwachten hoge bezettingsgraad, de ontwikkeling van trams en lightrails gunstig. Een tendens naar meer duurzame vormen van openbaar vervoer wordt zichtbaar. Ruimte In dit scenario is veel transport omdat functies ver van elkaar liggen vanwege de hinder die ze soms kunnen veroorzaken aan mens en milieu. Naast grote natuurgebieden vinden we in dit scenario geconcentreerde steden, waar minder nieuwe huizen worden gebouwd, grote, compacte industrieterreinen en grootschalige intensieve agrarische bedrijven. De ruimte voor agrarische en industriële activiteiten neemt af, de ruimte wordt efficiënter benut, en zo kan meer ruimte gegeven worden aan natuur, in vergelijking met de andere scenario’s. Het kweken van agrarische producten
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vindt veelal plaats in gesloten energieneutrale kassen. Lage grondprijzen kunnen hierbij een voordeel zijn voor kassen in Zuid-Oost Drenthe. Daarnaast wordt er minder vlees gegeten waardoor ook ruimte bespaard wordt. Dieren voor vleesproductie krijgen meer ruimte, een diervriendelijkere vorm van bedrijfsvoering, en in de agrarische sector ontstaan combinaties met natuurontwikkeling of energieproductie. Er is een toename van de dienstensector waarneembaar en een groeiende trend van high-tech en lifesciences. Ontwerpcriteria: Hernieuwbare energiebronnen vinden grootschalig en geconcentreerd hun weg Aardgas wordt gebruikt als transitiebrandstof Hoogspanningsleidingen zijn zeer relevant, daar grootschalige hernieuwbaar geproduceerde elektriciteit de ruggegraat is van het energiesysteem In een globaal scenario zijn nieuwe verbindingen naar het buitenland te verwachten Er komen ook nieuwe schakels in Zuid-Oost Drenthe om het netwerk te versterken Nieuwe verbindingen komen zoveel mogelijk langs bestaande infrastructuur te liggen, korte afstanden is ook een criterium Er komt een afvalverbrander bij het afvalverzamelpunt, afval = energie Een spoorwegaansluiting is een argument bij de afvalverzameling (meer duurzaam) Nieuwe warmtenetten worden naast sources en dus ook vanaf de afvalverbranders aangelegd naar bestaande woongebieden Kortom koppel sinks aan sources In dorpen wordt warmtekrachtkoppeling toegepast met biomassa-afval als basisbrandstof
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