March 7, 2017
Andy Wibowo Gunawan
+62-21-515-1140
[email protected]
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ITMG: Efficiency improvements should do the trick
Market Index Last Trade JCI
Chg (%)
5,409.8 24.8 934.4 23,596.3 2,081.4 7,350.1 20,954.3 5,849.2
MSCI Indonesia MSCI EM HANG SENG KOSPI FTSE DJIA NASDAQ Valuation 2017F JCI
MoM
0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4
P/E (x)
0.2 -1.0 0.9 0.9 0.3 2.6 4.6 3.5
P/B (x)
15.6
YoY
11.6 3.5 17.7 16.8 6.3 19.3 23.0 24.7
ROE (%)
2.3
18.0
Kami meng-upgrade target harga 12 bulan kami untuk Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG) ke Rp22.100/saham dari Rp19.725/saham karena kami menaikan target volume penjualan perusahaan dan kelanjutan program efisiensi (untuk lebih jelasnya silahkan lihat coal initiation kami "The rise of carbon"). Namun, karena perkiraan harga batubara global yang lebih tinggi untuk 2017F, rencana ITMG untuk mengakuisisi cadangan batubara baru tampaknya hanya mimpi belaka. Kami masih mengulangi rekomendasi Beli kami pada ITMG berkat potensi upside-nya yang melebihi 20.0%. 2017F sales volume nudged up to 27.0mn tonnes Dari arahan manajemen, kami telah merevisi naik target volume penjualan 2017F setahun penuh kami untuk ITMG untuk menjadi 27,0 juta ton (+3,8% dari target sebelumnya). Dari 27,0 ton tersebut, ITMG telah mengunci harga untuk 3.8mn ton di level USD65,0/ton. Falling back on existing resources while raising stripping ratio
Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) BI 7-Day RR
4.75 3yr 7.17 10yr 7.49 *since introduced in Aug 2016
MoM
0 1 -1
YoY
0 -1 -7
-50* -50 -37
Meskipun rencana ITMG untuk mengakuisisi cadangan batubara baru agar perusahaan tetap tumbuh, kami yakin kesempatan untuk hal ini terjadi sangat rendah. Sebaliknya, kami memperkirakan perusahaan akan memanfaatkan sumber daya yang sudah ada. Selain itu, perusahaan telah merencanakan untuk menaikkan rasio pengupasan tanah 2017F menjadi 11,0x (+35,8% YoY) karena perkiraan harga batu bara dunia membaik. Upward revisions to 2017F and 2018F earnings
FX Last Trade USD/IDR
Chg (%)
13,350.00 1,157.85 113.89 6.90
USD/KRW USD/JPY USD/CNY
MoM
-0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1
YoY
0.5 1.2 1.3 0.5
2.3 -3.6 0.4 5.8
Commodities Last Trade WTI
Chg (%)
53.2 1,225.3 80.2 705.0 195.4 10,990.0 5,917.0 19,450.0
Gold Coal Palm Oil Rubber Nickel Copper Tin
-0.2 -0.8 -4.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 -0.2 -0.3
MoM
0.8 -0.7 -1.4 5.0 -11.4 5.2 1.2 1.5
YoY
17.9 -3.3 57.3 21.3 84.4 17.7 17.7 14.5
Kami memperkirakan perpanjangan program efisiensi perusahaan; maka, target laba bersih masing-masing 2017F dan 2018F menjadi USD176,4 juta dan USD236,6 juta (+113,6% dan 129,9% dari target sebelumnya). Raise TP to IDR22,100/share and reiterate Buy call Kami menetapkan 8.0x EV/reserves dan mendapatkan target harga di IDR22.100/saham. Kami juga mengulangi rekomendasi Beli kita untuk ITMG karena potensi kenaikan lebih dari 20,0%.
Lower stripping ratio despite higher coal price
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets
(pt)
JCI
MSCI EM
(pt) 1,100
5,500
950 4,500 3,500 03/13
800 03/14
03/15
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
(pt)
5,500
JCI
03/16
650 03/17
MSCI EM
Source: : Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
(pt) 1,100
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia cartoon
2 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Local flashes HMSP: 2016, laba bersih HM Sampoerna naik 23,15%. PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk. (HMSP) mengantongi laba yang dapat diatribusikan ke entitas induk sebesar Rp12,76 triliun sepanjang 2016. Pencapaian tersebut naik 23,15% dibandingkan pada 2015 yang hanya mencatatkan Rp10,36 triliun. Laporan keuangan perseroan menunjukkan moncernya pencapaian laba tersebut didorong oleh meningkatnya penjualan bersih sebesar 7,18% menjadi Rp95,47 triliun pada 2016, dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya yang hanya mencatatkan Rp89,07 triliun. (Bisnis Indonesia) AKRA: AKR Corporindo targetkan kenaikan penjualan 20% tahun ini. PT AKR Korporindo Tbk (AKRA) mencatatkan penurunan pendapatan di tahun 2016. Perseroan peroleh pendapatan sekitar Rp 15,2 triliun. Pendapatan tersebut menurun apabila dibandingkan dengan pendapatan perseroan di tahun 2015 yakni sebesar Rp 19,7 triliun. Penurunan pendapatan ini juga disertai dengan penurunan laba bersih perseroan. Laba perseroan tergerus tipis sebesar 1,1% ke angka Rp 1,04 triliun di tahun 2016. Untuk tahun ini, perusahaan optimis akan mencatat pertumbuhan penjualan sebesar 15-20%. (Kontan) TLKM: Kantongi Rp116 triliun, pendapatan Telkom lampaui proyeksi. PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk., meraih pendapatan sebesar Rp116,33 triliun pada 2016 atau naik 13,52% yoy dari tahun sebelumnya senilai Rp102,47 triliun. Kontribusi terbesar berasal dari segmen data, internet, dan jasa teknologi informatika sejumlah Rp58,97 triliun atau 50,69% terhadap total pendapatan. Pencapaian pendapatan TLKM pada 2016 lebih tinggi 0,12% dari konsensus Bloombergsebesar Rp116,19 triliun. Sementara laba bersih lebih rendah 3,15% dari proyeksi senilai Rp19,98 triliun. (Bisnis Indonesia) AGRO: BRI Agroniaga rights issue himpun Rp769 miliar. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Agroniaga Tbk. (AGRO) berencana melakukan penambahan modal berskema rights issue dengan target dana sekitar Rp769 miliar. AGRO berencana menerbitkan sebanyak-banyaknya 7,69 miliar saham baru dengan nilai Rp100 per saham atau 50,19% dari modal yang ditempatkan dan disetor penuh. Bagi pemegang saham yang tidak melaksanakan hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu (HMETD) akan terkena dilusi kepemilikan maksimum sebesar 33,42% dari persentase kepemilikan saham perseroan. (Bisnis Indonesia) BKSW: Bank QNB rights issue Rp 2 triliun. PT Bank QNB Indonesia Tbk (BKSW) berencana menambah permodalan melalui penerbitan saham dengan hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu (HMETD) alias rights issue. Harga pelaksanaan rights issue tersebut Rp 250 per saham, sama seperti harga nominalnya. Harga pelaksanaan itu juga ditetapkan di bawah harga pasar. Saham BKWS pada perdagangan kemarin ditutup pada level Rp 350 per saham. Sementara, BKSW berencana melepas 8,23 miliar saham baru. Sehingga, perseroan bakal memperoleh dana segar Rp 2,06 triliun. (Kontan) WSKT: Waskita Karya salurkan pinjaman untuk cucu usaha. PT Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk., memberikan pinjaman senilai Rp275 miliar kepada anak usahanya, PT Waskita Toll Road, yang kemudian disalurkan kepada PT Sriwijaya Markmore Persada (Srimp). Seperti diketahui, Waskita Karya adalah pemegang 70,93% saham Waskita Toll Road. Waskita Toll Road sendiri memiliki 60% saham Srimp, perusahaan yang mengelola proyek jalan tol Kayu Agung-Palembang-Betung di Sumatera Selatan. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
3
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Technical analysis Tasrul
+62-21-515-1140
[email protected]
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) – Consolidation IHSG akan coba naik mendekati normal upper band pada uptrend channel IHSG saat masih dalam pola uptrend jangka pendek relatif valid yang dimulai sejak selama 37 hari terakhir dengan r-squared = 0.7426 dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.13 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang IHSG bergerak di luar pergerakan normal sekitar 25.74% atau sekitar 10 bar chart. Volatilitas normal pergerakan IHSG saat ini sebesar +/-0.38% atau sekitar +/- 20.7 point. IHSG akan coba menguji resistance di 5,432 sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 1.
Summary Item Close (March 6, 2017)
Data
Item
Data
5,409(+0.3%) Trading range
Average index performance (%)
5,391-5,432
1.23Target 37 - Daily 0.7426 - Weekly 0.38 - Monthly 20.7 Stop loss
Period r-squared Volatility (+/-, %) Volatility (+/-, point)
5,422 5,435 5,474 5,375
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 1. Daily trend - Uptrend ^JKSE - Daily 3/6/2017 Open 5398.05, Hi 5409.82, Lo 5386.83, Close 5409.82 (0.3%) Upper Band = 5,437.08, Channel_prd = 5,409.35, Lower Band = 5,381.62, Upper Band = 5,471.53, Channel_prd = 5,409.35 5,471.53 5,432
5,437.08
5,391
5,409.82 5,409.35 5,409.35 5,381.62 5,375.38 5,347.17 5,346.15
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 ^JKSE - Volume = 10,536,193,024.00, Avg.Volume = 14,263,736,320.00
14,263,736,320 10,536,193,024 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 19 27 2017
9
16
23
30
Feb
6
13
20
27
Mar
6
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
4 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana keluar dan volatilitas indeks naik mulai terlihat namun relatif terbatas. Pada Figure 2, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator RSI optimized cenderung naik namun volume masih di bawah rata-rata, dengan demikian potensi kenaikkan mulai terlihat namun terbatas . Resistance terdekat di 5,432 dan support di 5,391. Stop loss level di 5,375. Figure 2. Daily MFI optimized & RSI optimized ^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 54.38
54.3818
^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = 64.69 64.6927
^JKSE - Daily 3/6/2017 Open 5398.05, Hi 5409.82, Lo 5386.83, Close 5409.82 (0.3%) VWAP = 5,334.38, VWAP = 5,375.63, VWAP = 5,346.15
5,432 5,409.82 5,391
5,375.63 5,346.15 5,334.38
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 ^JKSE - Volume = 10,536,193,024.00, Avg.Volume = 14,263,736,320.00
14,263,736,320 10,536,193,024 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 10 17 24 31Nov
7
14
21
28
Dec
13
19
27
2017 9
16
23
30 Feb 6
13
20
27 Mar 6
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
5
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
IHSG akan coba naik mendekati resistance 2 pada masing-masing periode. Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut IHSG saat ini harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar rata-rata masing-masing periode dengan target terdekat berikutnya resistance 2 pada periode masing-masing sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 3,4 dan 5. Figure 3. Daily, target : 5,422
Figure 4. Weekly, target : 5,435
^JKSE - Daily 3/6/2017 Open 5398.05, Hi 5409.82, Lo 5386.83,
Figure 5. Monthly,target : 5,474
^JKSE - Weekly 3/12/2017 Open 5398.05, Hi 5409.82, Lo 5386.83,
5,442.51 5,432.17 5,421.82 5,411.48 5,409.82 5,401.13 5,390.78
x
^JKSE - Monthly 3/6/2017 Open 5389.17, Hi 5431.17, Lo 5350.91, 5,537.07
5,712.04
5,503.08
5,632.84
5,469.1 5,435.11 5,409.82 5,401.13 5,367.15 5,333.16 5,299.18 5,265.19
5,553.65 5,474.46 5,409.82 5,395.27 5,316.08 5,236.88 5,157.69 5,078.5
5,380.44 5,370.09 5,359.75
^JKSE - Volume = 10,536,193,024.00, Avg.Volume = 14,263,736,320.00
^JKSE - Volume = 10,536,193,024.00, Avg.Volume = 58,219,593,728.00
^JKSE - Volume = 37,623,201,792.00, Avg.Volume = 151,586,947,072.00
58,219,593,728 151,586,947,072 14,263,736,320 10,536,193,024 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Feb Mar Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Jul Oct 2017
10,536,193,024
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 2015 2016 2017
37,623,201,792
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
6 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Stocks on our focus list Barito Pacific (BRPT) – Trading Buy Harga akan coba naik mendekati center line pada trend channel. Secara umum harga saham ini masih bergerak pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.86) selama 52 hari terakhir yang bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.47 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 14.17 % (sekitar 7 bar chart ). Volatilitas normal pergerakkan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/- 42.11% atau sekitar +/-49.87 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 50 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir. Saat ini harga akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 6.
Summary Item
Data
Close (March 6, 2017) Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) β (beta) Corelation Period
Item
Data
2,360(+5.8%)Trading range 66.99Target 2.82 - Daily 0.55 - Weekly 52 - Monthly
r-squared
2,240-2,430 2,410 2,470 2,520
0.86Stop loss 2.11 49.87
Volatility (+/-, %) Volatility (+/-, Rp.)
2,230
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 6. Daily trend – Uptrend BRPT.JK - Daily 3/6/2017 Open 2240, Hi 2390, Lo 2240, Close 2360 (5.8%) Upper Band = 2,622.89, Channel_prd = 2,428.39, Lower Band = 2,233.89, VWAP = 2,242.58, VWAP = 2,317.65 2,622.89
2,430 2,428.39 2,360 2,317.65 2,242.58 2,233.89
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 BRPT.JK - Volume = 41,357,800.00, Avg.Volume = 28,493,400.00
41,357,800 28,493,400 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 7 14 21 28
Dec
13
19
27
2017
9
16
23
30 Feb 6
13
20
27 Mar 6
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
7
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat. Pada Figure 7, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator W%R optimized masih cenderung naik dengan volume tembus rata-rata. Hal ini mengindikasikan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Resistance terdekat di 2,430. Support terdekat di 2,320. Stop loss level di 2,230.
Figure 7. Daily, MFI optimized & W%R optimized BRPT.JK - MFI Smoothed = 73.42 73.4219
BRPT.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -30.90
-30.8991
BRPT.JK - Daily 3/6/2017 Open 2240, Hi 2390, Lo 2240, Close 2360 (5.8%) VWAP = 2,317.65, VWAP = 2,242.58
2,430 2,360 2,317.65 2,242.58
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 BRPT.JK - Volume = 41,357,800.00, Avg.Volume = 28,493,400.00 41,357,800 28,493,400
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Jul Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Feb
Mar
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
8 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Harga akan naik dan bertahan diatas resistance 2 pada masing-masing periode. Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar resistance 2 masing-masing periode dengan target berikutnya mendekati resistance 4 pada masingmasing periode sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 8,9 dan 10.
Figure 8. Daily ,target : 2,410
Figure 9. Weekly, target : 2,470
BRPT.JK - Daily 3/6/2017 Open 2240, Hi 2390, Lo 2240, Close
Figure 10. Monthly, target : 2,520
BRPT.JK - Weekly 3/12/2017 Open 2240, Hi 2390, Lo 2240,
BRPT.JK - Monthly 3/6/2017 Open 2230, Hi 2390, Lo 2210,
2,521.16 2,467.74 2,414.33 2,360.91 2,360 2,307.5 2,254.09 2,200.67 2,147.26 2,093.84
2,407.24 2,382.3 2,360 2,357.37 2,332.43 2,307.5 2,282.57 2,257.63 2,232.7 2,207.76
BRPT.JK - Volume = 41,357,800.00, Avg.Volume = 131,188,216.00
BRPT.JK - Volume = 41,357,800.00, Avg.Volume = 28,493,400.00
BRPT.JK - Volume = 104,061,104.00, Avg.Volume = 458,571,392.00
458,571,392
131,188,216
41,357,800
2,524.08 2,467.43 2,410.79 2,360 2,354.14 2,297.5 2,240.86 2,184.21 2,127.57 2,070.92
28,493,400
41,357,800 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 - Powered by AMTA Feb Mar Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Jul Oct 2017 Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
104,061,104 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 2015 2016 2017 Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
9
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
United Tractors (UNTR) – Trading Buy Harga akan coba naik dan tembus abnormal upper band pada uptrend channel . Secara umum harga saham ini juga masih bergerak dalam pola uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.86) selama 52 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.64 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 14.17% (sekitar 7 bar chart ). Volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/ 2,11 % atau sekitar +/- 49.87 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 50 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir. Saat ini harga akan coba naik dan tembus abnormal upper band pada uptrend channel sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 11.
Summary Item
Data
Close (March 6, 2017)
Item
Data 26,650-27,150
26,200(+4.4%)Trading range
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) β (beta) Corelation Period
37.71Target 0.90 - Daily 0.44 - Weekly 52 - Monthly
r-squared
26,450 26,600 17,150
0.86 Stop loss
Volatility (+/-, %)
25,175
2.11 49.87
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 11. Daily trend – Uptrend UNTR.JK - Daily 3/6/2017 Open 25100, Hi 26200, Lo 25100, Close 26200 (4.4%) Upper Band = 25,855.32, Channel_prd = 25,046.74, Lower Band = 24,238.16, Upper Band = 26,208.92, Channel_prd = 25,046.74 27,150
26,500
26,208.9 26,200 25,855.3
25,650
25,175.3 25,046.7 25,046.7 24,238.2 23,884.6 23,836.2
22,895.3
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 UNTR.JK - Volume = 8,768,000.00, Avg.Volume = 4,187,450.00 8,768,000
4,187,450
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 10 17 24 31Nov
7
14
21
28
Dec
13
19
27
2017 9
16
23
30 Feb 6
13
20
27 Mar 6
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
10 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat. Pada Figure 12, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator W%R Optimized masih cenderung naik dengan volume tembus rata-rata. Hal ini mengindikasikan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Resistance terdekat di 26,650. Support saat ini di 25,7650 Stop loss level di 25,175.
Figure 12. Daily, MFI optimized & W%R optimized UNTR.JK - MFI Smoothed = 74.34
74.3416
UNTR.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -9.79 -9.78964
UNTR.JK - Daily 3/6/2017 Open 25100, Hi 26200, Lo 25100, Close 26200 (4.4%) VWAP = 25,175.28, VWAP = 23,836.17, VWAP = 22,895.32 27,150 26,500 25,650
26,200 25,175.3 23,836.2 22,895.3
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 UNTR.JK - Volume = 8,768,000.00, Avg.Volume = 4,187,450.00
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Sep
10M 8,768,000 8M 6M 4,187,450 4M 2M Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Feb
Mar
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
11
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Harga akan coba naik dan tembus resistance 2 pada masing-masing periode. Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan minimal di support 1 masingmasing periode dengan target berikutnya tembus resistance 2 sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 14,15 dan 16.
Figure 13. Daily, target : 26,450
Figure 14. Weekly, target : 26,600
Figure 15. Monthly, target : 27,150
x
UNTR.JK - Daily 3/6/2017 Open 25100, Hi 26200, Lo 25100,
UNTR.JK - Weekly 3/12/2017 Open 25100, Hi 26200, Lo 25100,
26,453.8 26,252.8 26,200 26,051.9 25,850.9 25,650 25,449.1 25,248.1 25,047.2 24,846.2
UNTR.JK - Monthly 3/6/2017 Open 24950, Hi 26200, Lo 23750,
UNTR.JK - Volume = 8,768,000.00, Avg.Volume = 15,907,925.00
UNTR.JK - Volume = 8,768,000.00, Avg.Volume = 4,187,450.00
27,798.3 27,167.4 26,536.6 26,200 25,905.8 25,275 24,644.2 24,013.4 23,382.6 22,751.8
27,559.7 27,082.3 26,604.8 26,200 26,127.4 25,650 25,172.6 24,695.2 24,217.7 23,740.3
UNTR.JK - Volume = 16,749,800.00, Avg.Volume = 78,314,152.00
8,768,000
78,314,152 4,187,450
15,907,925 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Feb Mar Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Jul Oct 2017
8,768,000
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 2015 2016 2017
16,749,800
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
12 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA) – Trading Buy Harga akan coba naik dan tembus normal lower band pada uptrend channel. Secara umum harga saham ini akan coba naik dan tembus normal lower band pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid dengan r-squared = 0.70 selama 50 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.04 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normalnya sekitar 29.74 % (sekitar 15 bar chart ). Volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/2.32 % atau sekitar +/-39.93 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 40 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 16.
Summary Item
Data
Close (March 6, 2017) Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) β (beta)
Item
Data
1,720(+0.6%)Trading range 54.66Target 3.51 - Daily
Corelation
1,700-1,780 1,760
0.68 - Weekly 50 - Monthly
Period r-squared
1,800 1,820
0.70Stop loss 2.32 39.93
Volatility (+/-, %) Volatility (+/-, Rp.)
1,670
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 16. Daily Trend – Uptrend JPFA.JK - Daily 3/6/2017 Open 1710, Hi 1740, Lo 1710, Close 1720 (0.6%) Upper Band = 1,951.80, Channel_prd = 1,867.34, Lower Band = 1,782.88, Upper Band = 2,045.18, Channel_prd = 1,867.34, Lower 2,045.18
1,951.8 1,867.34 1,867.34 1,782.88 1,775.52 1,720 1,700
1,689.51 1,667.02
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 JPFA.JK - Volume = 9,920,800.00, Avg.Volume = 10,684,379.00
10,684,379 9,920,800
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 14 21 28 Dec
13
19
27
2017
9
16
23
30 Feb 6
13
20
27 Mar 6
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
13
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat. Pada Figure 17, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi, indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator W%R Optimized masih cenderung naik dengan volume sekitar rata-rata. Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat Perkiraan resistance terdekat ke 1,780. Support terdekat di 1,700,Stop loss level 1,670.
Figure 17. Daily MFI Optimized & W%R Optimized JPFA.JK - MFI Smoothed = 60.74
60.7401
JPFA.JK - RSI Smoothed = 40.64
40.6376
JPFA.JK - Daily 3/6/2017 Open 1710, Hi 1740, Lo 1710, Close 1720 (0.6%) VWAP = 1,667.02, VWAP = 1,775.52
1,700
1,775.52 1,720 1,667.02
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
JPFA.JK - Volume = 9,920,800.00, Avg.Volume = 10,654,280.00
10,654,280 9,920,800 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Aug Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Feb
Mar
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
14 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode. Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan sekitar rata-rata masing-masing periode dengan target terdekat minimal resistance 2 sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 18,19 dan 20. Figure 18. Daily, target : 1,760
Figure 19. Weekly, target : 1,800
JPFA.JK - Daily 3/6/2017 Open 1710, Hi 1740, Lo 1710, Close
Figure 20. Monthly, target : 1.820
JPFA.JK - Weekly 3/12/2017 Open 1710, Hi 1740, Lo 1710,
JPFA.JK - Monthly 3/6/2017 Open 1740, Hi 1775, Lo 1620,
1,926.01 1,872.94 1,819.88 1,766.81 1,720 1,713.75 1,660.69 1,607.62 1,554.56 1,501.49
1,889.81 1,847.36 1,804.91 1,762.45 1,720 1,720 1,677.55 1,635.09 1,592.64 1,550.19
1,799.86 1,779.89 1,759.93 1,739.96 1,720 1,720 1,700.04 1,680.07 1,660.11 1,640.14
JPFA.JK - Volume = 9,920,800.00, Avg.Volume = 34,756,528.00
JPFA.JK - Volume = 9,920,800.00, Avg.Volume = 10,684,379.00
JPFA.JK - Volume = 69,887,504.00, Avg.Volume = 129,116,736.00
10,684,379 9,920,800
129,116,736 34,756,528 69,887,504
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Feb Mar Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) β (beta) Correlation Period r-squared Volatility (+/-%) Volatility (+/- point or Rp)
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Jul Oct 2017
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 2015 2016 2017 Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
: Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase. : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama Harga saham bergerak
Buy: Sell: BoW: SoS: Trading Buy: analyzed by : Tasrul,
[email protected], +62-21- 5151140 Trading Sell
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
9,920,800
: Beli, harga sudah menyentuh atau jatuh di bawah support dan indikator teknikal berada di oversold area. : Jual, harga sudah menyentuh atau tembus resistance normal dan indikator berada di overbought area. : Buy on Weakness, beli ketika harga sudah melemah, dimana Volume tekanan jual mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati support, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di oversold area. : Sell on Strength, jual ketika kenaikan harga sudah mulai terbatas dimana volume beli mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati resistance, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di overbought area. : Beli dan jual kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level resistance terdekat, karena kenaikan harga relatif tidak stabil atau hanya sementara. : Jual dan beli kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level support terdekat karena koreksi harga relative tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
15
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Chart 21. JCI Vs. USD/IDR (pt)
Chart 22. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
JCI (L)
(IDR)
USD/IDR (R)
(%, %p)
5,500
14,000
16
5,300
13,800
12
5,100
13,600
8
4,900
13,400
4
Absolute
Relative 12.0
0.5 1.1
0.3 4,700
13,200
0
4,500
13,000
-4
12,800
-8
0.5
0.0
4,300 12/5
1/2
1/30
2/27
-0.7
1D
1W
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 23. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM)
Chart 24. Energy price
(USDmn) 1,000
1 Day
((D-3M=100) 110
5 Days
925
800
-6.2 1Y
1M
CPO
WTI
Coal
105
600
100 336
400 214
95
200 0
19
0 -5
-35
-200
90
15 -63
-31
85
-195 -275
-400 Korea
80
Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines
India
Note: The latest figure for India are March 3rd, 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Copper
12/16
1/17
1/17
1/17
2/17
2/17
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 25. Non-ferrous metal price ((D-3M=100) 105
12/16
Chart 26. Precious metal price Nickel
Tin
Silver
Gold
Platinum
115
100
110
95
105
90
100
85
95
80
90
75
85
70
80 12/16
12/16
1/17
1/17
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
1/17
2/17
2/17
12/16
12/16
1/17
1/17
1/17
2/17
2/17
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
16 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Table. Key valuation metrics Price
Market Cap
(IDR)
(IDRbn)
1D
1W
1M
1Y
FY16
FY17
FY16
FY17
FY16
FY17
5,410
5,886,802
0.3
0.5
0.3
11.5
15.6
13.6
2.3
2.1
17.9
13.4
BBCA BMRI BBRI BBNI BBTN
15,475 11,300 11,950 6,300 2,070
381,536 263,667 294,796 117,487 21,921
0.0 -0.4 0.8 -0.8 -1.9
-0.2 1.1 0.6 2.0 -1.0
-0.8 -0.7 -0.8 4.6 8.7
14.0 15.6 5.1 19.4 23.2
17.0 19.6 10.9 9.1 13.3
15.0 13.0 10.5 8.9 12.1
3.0 1.8 1.9 1.2 1.0
2.6 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.2
18.9 10.3 20.2 13.9 7.6
18.5 12.8 18.5 14.5 10.0
HMSP GGRM ICBP INDF
3,950 63,400 8,300 8,075
459,456 121,987 96,794 70,902
-1.0 -1.7 0.9 0.3
0.0 -3.6 -0.6 1.3
-0.8 2.5 -3.2 1.6
-9.4 -4.2 4.2 8.0
34.8 16.0 24.0 16.0
31.5 14.1 21.6 14.1
12.7 2.7 4.9 2.2
11.7 2.4 4.5 2.0
37.0 17.8 21.5 13.8
38.4 18.0 21.8 14.7
1,525
71,485
2.7
-0.7
3.0
15.5
28.1
25.0
5.3
4.9
20.0
20.4
42,375
323,321
1.0
0.3
1.6
-6.3
44.9
39.7
55.9
52.1
131.0
138.5
15,300 1,510
29,448 10,303
0.2 1.0
-1.9 -1.9
-4.4 -4.4
6.3 1.7
14.8 20.0
15.6 13.5
1.9 1.6
1.7 1.3
14.1 7.9
11.0 9.6
SSMS
1,380
13,145
-1.4
-9.2
-17.9
-30.8
18.7
15.0
3.3
2.8
17.5
18.8
EXCL
2,900
30,995
0.3
-3.7
-0.7
-28.8
60.8
67.9
1.2
1.4
2.1
1.7
JSMR PGAS TBIG TLKM SOCI
4,580 2,830 4,970 3,920
33,241 68,603 22,521 395,136
-2.1 0.0 -0.6 1.8
-5.8 0.4 -6.2 1.3
7.8 -6.0 -0.6 -1.0
-14.2 6.8 -15.8 15.3
15.6 11.8 17.2 20.3
18.1 11.2 14.8 16.9
2.3 1.5 7.2 4.7
2.2 1.3 5.2 4.1
15.7 12.7 47.0 24.3
12.3 12.4 39.2 24.1
290
2,047
3.6
6.6
-4.0
-39.8
3.6
N/A
N/A
N/A
11.3
N/A
GIAA
342
8,853
1.2
0.6
-1.2
-23.1
20.8
14.7
2.5
2.3
11.8
15.1
Company Name
Ticker
Jakarta Composite Index FINANCIALS Bank Central Asia Bank Mandiri Persero Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Bank Tabungan Negara Persero CONSUMER HM Sampoerna Gudang Garam Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Indofood Sukses Makmur
JCI
Kalbe Farma
KLBF
Unilever Indonesia AGRICULTURAL
UNVR
Astra Agro Lestari PP London Sumatera Indonesia
AALI LSIP
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana INFRASTRUCTURE XL Axiata Jasa Marga Perusahaan Gas Negara Tower Bersama Infrastructure Telekomunikasi Indonesia Soechi Lines Garuda Indonesia
Price Performance (%)
P/E(X)*
P/B(X)*
ROE(%)*
BASIC-INDUSTRIES Semen Indonesia Charoen Pokphand Indonesia
SMGR CPIN
9,500 3,130
56,349 51,326
0.8 -2.8
-0.3 -2.2
2.4 -3.4
-8.9 -9.9
12.0 15.0
14.4 12.5
1.9 3.0
1.8 2.5
16.3 21.2
13.2 21.5
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
INTP JPFA
15,475 1,720
56,967 19,626
-0.2 0.6
-0.8 -2.3
0.3 -3.4
-24.1 111.0
15.6 7.7
14.6 10.6
2.0 1.9
1.9 1.9
13.4 28.6
13.9 20.1
Indo Tambangraya Megah Adaro Energy
ITMG ADRO
17,075 1,685
19,293 53,896
-2.6 0.0
1.6 -0.9
8.1 -3.2
156.8 147.8
10.4 11.5
8.5 11.5
1.5 1.2
1.5 1.1
15.0 9.8
17.1 10.4
Aneka Tambang Vale Indonesia
ANTM INCO
760 2,550
18,263 25,338
0.7 1.2
2.7 -0.4
-6.7 -6.3
88.6 43.3
298.3 N/A
37.0 38.2
1.2 1.1
1.0 1.0
0.4 0.1
2.5 2.5
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam
PTBA
10,750
24,769
-2.1
-2.5
-4.0
85.3
8.9
8.5
2.0
1.7
21.5
20.9
TRADE United Tractors
UNTR
26,200
97,730
4.4
5.1
13.5
75.0
15.8
16.1
1.9
2.2
12.7
13.9
AKR Corporindo
AKRA
6,325
25,248
2.0
-1.6
-8.3
-17.9
23.5
19.7
4.7
3.3
18.0
17.4
Global Mediacom
BMTR
535
7,596
-3.6
3.9
-10.1
-44.6
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Matahari Department Store
LPPF
13,075
38,152
-0.2
-6.6
-13.7
-24.3
21.9
16.6
23.8
13.7
136.4
91.9
Media Nusantara Citra Matahari Putra Prima
MNCN MPPA
1,650 1,200
23,556 6,454
-0.6 -1.6
-0.9 -0.8
-2.9 -17.5
-10.8 -33.5
12.9 33.2
11.4 26.8
2.1 2.3
1.9 2.1
16.9 6.3
17.5 7.9
Surya Citra Media
SCMA
2,740
40,063
0.0
-10.5
-7.4
-3.9
22.0
19.1
9.7
8.4
47.0
46.4
Siloam International Hospital PROPERTY
SILO
12,800
16,648
-1.5
-6.7
-8.2
63.6
150.3
109.4
4.5
6.0
3.5
5.1
Bumi Serpong Damai Adhi Karya
BSDE ADHI
1,765 2,380
33,970 8,475
0.0 8.7
-4.9 11.2
-6.6 12.8
1.1 -8.8
14.0 23.6
12.8 13.4
1.5 1.4
1.3 1.3
10.6 5.9
10.8 10.7
Alam Sutera Realty
ASRI
368
7,231
0.5
-2.1
-6.6
0.3
8.5
6.3
0.9
0.8
10.9
12.7
Ciputra Development Lippo Karawaci
CTRA LPKR
1,295 730
24,036 16,847
0.8 2.8
-3.4 -2.0
-6.2 -3.3
-3.1 -31.8
16.4 18.6
13.5 14.8
1.8 0.9
1.7 0.9
12.5 5.0
12.8 6.5
Pembangunan Perumahan Pakuwon Jati
PTPP PWON
3,550 555
22,010 26,729
0.3 -0.9
1.7 -5.1
-5.8 -1.8
0.8 16.4
23.1 13.1
15.5 10.8
2.4 2.5
2.1 2.1
14.4 20.5
16.7 20.5
Summarecon Agung Wijaya Karya Waskita Karya
SMRA WIKA WSKT
1,400 2,490 2,440
20,197 22,335 33,120
1.4 0.4 1.2
1.1 -0.4 -0.4
6.1 -0.8 -5.1
-12.8 8.9 28.4
39.7 14.4 17.3
30.7 18.5 14.5
3.0 1.8 3.1
2.8 1.9 2.0
7.6 12.9 16.6
9.6 11.5 16.1
ASII
8,550
346,134
1.8
6.5
5.2
23.9
22.1
17.9
3.0
2.8
14.2
15.9
MINING
MISCELLANEOUS Astra International
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
17
March 7, 2017 Embun Pagi
Sector performance
Top 10 market cap performance
Name
Index
Agricultural Mining Basic-Industry Miscellaneous Industry Consumer Goods Property & Construction Infrastructure Finance Trade Composite
Chg (%)
1,821.6 1,427.5 562.6 1,443.1 2,392.7 510.1 1,069.5 830.0 866.2 5,409.8
Ticker -0.9 -0.2 0.1 1.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.0 1.0 0.3
Price
SRIL IJ ADHI IJ BRPT IJ UNTR IJ ADMF IJ NIKL IJ MYOR IJ LPKR IJ KLBF IJ MAPI IJ
Market Cap (IDRbn) 496 2380 2360 26200 7250 2120 2110 730 1525 5350
Chg (%)
9,222 8,475 16,473 97,730 7,250 5,350 47,177 16,847 71,485 8,881
24.62 8.68 5.83 4.38 3.6 3.41 2.93 2.82 2.7 2.39
Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers
Top 5 lagging movers
Name
Chg (%)
TLKM IJ ASII IJ UNTR IJ UNVR IJ BBRI IJ
Close 1.8 1.8 4.4 1.0 0.8
Name 3,920 8,550 26,200 42,375 11,950
Chg (%)
HMSP IJ GGRM IJ AGRO IJ CPIN IJ BMRI IJ
Close -1.0 -1.7 -12.7 -2.8 -0.4
3,950 63,400 925 3,130 11,300
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar Time 3:00am 5:30am 7:01am 10:30am 10:30am 10:45am 12:00pm 2:00pm 2:45pm 3:00pm 3:30pm 5:00pm 8:30pm 8:30pm Tentative 10:00pm 10:00pm
Currency USD AUD GBP AUD AUD JPY JPY EUR EUR CHF GBP EUR CAD USD NZD CAD USD
Detail FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks AIG Construction Index BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y Cash Rate RBA Rate Statement 30-y Bond Auction BOJ Core CPI y/y German Factory Orders m/m French Gov Budget Balance Foreign Currency Reserves Halifax HPI m/m Revised GDP q/q Trade Balance Trade Balance GDT Price Index Ivey PMI IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
Forecast
Previous
1.50%
47.7 -0.6% 1.50%
-2.5%
0.4% 0.4% 0.2B -47.0B 58.9 57.1
0.91|3.2 0.1% 5.2% -69.0B 644B -0.9% 0.4% 0.9B -44.3B -3.2% 57.2 56.4
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory
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18 Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia