Ketimpangan Pendapatan dan Kesempatan di Indonesia

KEMENTERIAN KEUANGAN REPUBLIK INDONESIA

Ketimpangan Pendapatan dan Kesempatan di Indonesia Kunta W.D. Nugraha Peneliti Senior Badan Kebijakan Fiskal, Kementerian Keuangan

Konferensi INFID Jakarta, 26 – 27 November 2013 CRICOS #00212K


Topik • Ketimpangan pendapatan di Indonesia • Menuju pendapatan final • Pengaruh pendapatan non-market, bantuan sosial dan subsidi terhadap ketimpangan pendapatan d t • Kesimpulan

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Semakin tinggi pertumbuhan ekonomi, semakin tinggi pula ketimpangan pendapatan

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Beberapa konsep penting

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Menuju pendapatan final

Gross income

Income tax

All market income

Net income

Wages/sala Business & nonries business income

Financial income

Consumpti on of own production

Income in-kind

Actual income

Taxes on production

Final income

Disposable i income

Income after t taxes

Benefits inkind

Cash transfers CRICOS #00212K


Definisi cash transfers dan benefits in-kind Items 1 Cash Cash Transfers Transfers Education ‐ BOS ‐ Scholarship

Health ‐ Basic Health

Definition

Grants for operational school for 41.9 million students Grants for poor students ‐ 2.4 million students in SD&SMP ‐ 0.9 million students in SMA ‐ 0.2 million students in Univ Grants for operational of Puskesmas

Items 2 Subsidies Energy ‐ Fuel ‐ Electricity

Food ‐ Fertilizer

Definition

Price subsidy on unleaded, diesel, kerosene and gas Price subsidy on electricity below 6,600 Watt

Price subsidy on fertilizer

‐ Paddy

Price subsidy on paddy

‐ Rice

Price subsidy for poor household for 15 kg/month

‐ Standard Hospital St d d H it l Grants for standard hospital G t f t d dh it l Social Security ‐ Conditional

‐ Unconditional

Grants for poor household for 720,000 households Grants for poor household for 19,1 million households

Public Service Obligation ‐ Train (KAI) Ship (Pelni) Price subsidy for KAI, Pelni, ‐ Posindo and Antara ‐ Post Office ‐ News Agency 3 Public Spending ‐ Education ‐ Health

Central and local expenditure on Central and local expenditure on education Central and local expenditure on health

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Pengaruh pendapatan non-market sangat besar, terutama untuk kelompok paling miskin (US$ using PPP 2008)

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Cash transfers and benefits in-kind cenderung propoor, kecuali subsidi (US$ using PPP 2008)

Deciles Lowest Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Highest

Benefits In‐Kind

Cash Transfers

Subsidies

Health

Education

121.7 87.1 83.4 41.2 19.8 19.7 19.5 18.5 18.8 16.4

294.9 224.6 233.9 253.3 269.3 279.0 301.0 350.0 424.1 656.2

51.7 52.3 41.9 45.3 37.7 37.5 33.8 29.6 30.5 17.5

266.7 173.0 169.8 167.6 169.6 170.5 177.1 180.4 187.9 208.4

Total 735.0 537.0 529.1 507.4 496.5 506.6 531.5 578.5 661.3 898.5 8

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Education, basic health and social security are pro-poor (US$ using PPP 2008) Ed Education i Deciles Lowest Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Highest

B i H lh Basic Health

BOS

Scholarships

Puskesmas

Hospital

14.1 14.2 14.1 13.6 13.3 13.3 13.8 13.4 13.6 13.4

19.7 2.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

1.8 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.5

7.0 6.7 5.3 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.6 4.1 4.3 2.5

SSocial Security i lS i Un‐ Conditional conditional 63.5 61.8 61.5 19.6 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

15.6 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ CRICOS #00212K


Semua subsidi adalah pro-rich, kecuali beras (US$ using PPP 2008) Energy Deciles Lowest Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Highest

Food

Fuel

Electricity

Fertilizer Rice/Paddy

171.3 125.8 130.5 141.1 149.4 153.5 163.9 194.9 235.1 374.6

90.8 67.2 71.6 80.0 88.5 94.0 104.6 121.3 153.7 238.3

18.3 15.6 16.3 17.4 17.5 18.0 19.5 21.4 24.0 32.7

12.4 14.7 14.0 13.2 12.0 11.5 11.0 9.9 8.3 5.6

Public P bli Service Obligation 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.9 5.0 CRICOS #00212K


Subsidi BBM adalah pro-rich (US$ using PPP 2008)

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Distribusi pendapatan per kapita cenderung menyempit, % Market Income Market Income Deciles

Gross All Market Net Income Income Income

Market Income and Non‐Market Income Market Income and Non‐Market Income Actual Income

Income Disposible After Taxes Income

Final Income

LLowestt Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth i hh Ninth Highest

1.5 15 3.5 4.6 5.6 6.7 7.9 9.4 11.3 11 3 14.7 34.8

1.5 15 3.5 4.6 5.7 6.8 8.1 9.6 11.5 11 15.0 33.7

2.2 22 4.2 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.1 9.6 11.4 11 14.5 32.0

8.1 81 6.8 7.1 7.6 8.2 8.5 9.2 10.2 10 2 12.1 22.2

8.8 88 7.5 6.9 7.4 8.0 8.4 9.1 10.1 10 1 11.9 21.9

9.3 93 7.8 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.3 9.0 9.9 99 11.7 21.4

9.7 97 7.9 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.4 9.0 10.0 10 0 11.7 20.1

Total

100.0 100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

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40

30

30

30

20

20

20

10

10

10

0

0

0

Gross income

Equality line

Actual income

Equality line

Final income

Highest

40

Ninth

40

Eighth

50

Seventh

50

Sixth

50

Fifth

60

Fourth

60

Third

60

Second

70

Highest

70

Ninth

70

Eighth

80

Seventh

80

Sixth

80

Fifth

90

Fourth

90

Third

100

Second

100

90

Lowest

100

Lowest

Perbaikan distribusi pendapatan dapat dilihat pada Lorentz Curve

Equality line

Gross Income

Actual Income

Final Income

Gini Coefficient

0.42

0.21

0.17

Percentile Ratios P90/P50 P10/P50

3.39 0.34

2.06 0.83

1.82 0.87

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Kesimpulan (1)

• Non Non-market market income – Ignoring the non-market income component seriously overestimates the degree of income inequality. inequality – For example: Indonesian official Gini coefficient in 2008 is 0.35 0 35 using household consumption consumption, but I found that Gini coefficient can be 0.21 using household market and non-market income

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Kesimpulan (2)

• Cash transfers and benefits in-kind in kind – Government programs in health and education improve income distribution distribution, but not subsidies subsidies. – Most of subsidies are price subsidies which apply to all consumers and rich households consume more more.

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Policy Responses • Calculation of income inequality need to accommodate non-market income to avoid misleading results which could lead p poor p policy. y • Maintaining and increasing further cash transfers and public pub c spe spending d go on health ea t a and d educat education. o • Reform the subsidy system from price subsidies to targeted subsidies or other pro-poor pro poor programs.

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T i k ih Terimakasih

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Ketimpangan Pendapatan dan Kesempatan di Indonesia

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