INVESTASI DAN PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH
Hendri Saparini, Ph.D
[email protected] www.coreindonesia.org Seminar Mahasiswa STIAMI Bekasi, 29 Maret 2015
Potensi Investasi dan Perdagangan
Indonesia Ekonomi Penting Dunia Pertumbuhan Stabil dan Tertinggi Ke 3 dan GDP No. 16 Dunia
10 9 %
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
United… China Japan Germany France United… Brazil Russia Italy Canada India Australia Mexico Korea Indonesia Turkey Argentina United… South… 0
0,87
5
10 15 Thousand Billion
20
Penduduk Terbesar No. 4 Dunia dan SDA Melimpah
Berpotensi menjadi salah satu production base dunia
Ranking
Product
Exported Value (bill. US$)
Share Export (%)
Share in world exports (%)
Ranking in world exports
1
Coal
24.29
12.8
19
2
2
Petroleum gases
20.52
10.8
5
5
3
Palm oil & its fraction
17.60
9.3
46
1
4
Crude petroleum oils
12.29
6.5
1
23
5
Natural rubber
7.86
4.1
22
3
6
Copper ores and concentrates
2.59
1.4
5
5
7
Coconut (copra)
2.46
1.3
45
1
8
Petroleum coke
2.38
1.3
11
2
12
Unwrought tin
2.05
1.1
34
1
13
Plywood
2.01
1.1
14
2
Total 10
94.07
49.5
MP3EI: Enam Koridor Ekonomi Tiap Daerah memiliki potensi dan daya saing berbeda
Sumatera Corridor: “Center for Production and Processing of Natural Resources and As Nation’s Energy Reserves”
Kalimantan Corridor: “Center for Production and Processing of National Mining and Energy Reserves”
Sulawesi Corridor: “Center for Production and Processing of National Agricultural, Plantation, Fishery, Oil & Gas, and Mining”
Mega economic centers Economic centers
Java Corridor: “Driver for National Industry and Service Provision”
Bali – Nusa Tenggara Corridor: “Gateway for Tourism and National Food Support”
Papua – Maluku Islands Corridor: “Center for Development of Food, Fishery, Energy and National Mining”
PMA Primer dan Sekunder Akan Tumbuh Lebih Tinggi Indonesia tujuan investasi utama UNCTAD: Indonesia’s ranking rose from position 4 to 3 as a prime investment destination 2014-2016
American business representatives: popular location in ASEAN for business expansion
Promising Countries For Japanese FDI (JBIC)
Investasi Langsung Tumbuh PMA dan PMDN
350
1,000 TK PMA (skala kanan)
300
900 800 700 600
TK PMDN (skala kanan)
200
500
150
400
Investasi PMA (skala kiri)
100
RIBU ORANG
TRILIUN RUPIAH
250
300 200
50
Investasi PMDN (skala kiri)
100
-
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 Sumber: BKPM
Penanaman Modal Asing 2013
Industri kendaraan bermotor mendominasi
PMA Menurut Sektor
Lainnya 9%
Dominasi Manufaktur
Transportasi , Gudang & Komunikasi 5%
Pertanian 6%
Industri Manufaktur 55%
Ind. Kendaraa n Bermotor 24%
Listrik, Gas dan Air 8%
Pertambang an 17%
Ind. Logam, Mesin & Elektronik 21%
Ind. Kertas dan Percetakan 7%
Industri Lainnya 15%
Industri Makanan 13%
Kimia dan Farmasi 20%
Sumber: BI
Penanaman Modal Domestik, 2013 Industri makanan masih menjadi primadona
PMDN Menurut Sektor
Dominasi Manufaktur
Lainnya 4% Pertanian 5%
Industri Manufaktur 33%
Listrik, Gas dan Air 25%
Konstruksi 7% Transportasi ,& Komunikasi 13%
Pertambang an 13%
Industri Lainnya 12%
Industri Makanan 34%
Ind. Logam, Mesin & Elektronik 16%
Ind. Mineral Non Logam 10%
Ind. Kimia dan Farmasi 14% Ind. Kertas dan Percetakan 14%
Sumber: BI
Investasi Untuk Penguatan Daya Saing
.........ketergantungan tinggi pada impor impor raw material dan intermediate goods
Consumption
Raw Material and Intermediete goods
Capital goods
200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0
Miliar US$
120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0
40.0 20.0 0.0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Sumber: BI
Struktur Impor: 70% Bahan Baku dan Penolong Ketergantungan harus diselesaikan dengan membangun supporting industri
pharmaceutical products repair and installation of machinery and equipment machinery and equipment n.e.c. chemicals and chemical products leather and related products wearing apparel electrical equipment
basic metals computer, electronic and optical products other transport equipment fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment rubber and plastics products textiles
%
Defisit Transaksi Berjalan Tidak Mudah Diselesaikan Defisit neraca minyak, pendapatan dan jasa, akibat permasalahan
struktural 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000
Millions of USD
4,000 2,000
Nonmigas, 4,637 Gas, 3,501 Barang , 1,641
0 -2,000
Jasa - jasa, -2,313
-4,000 -6,000
Pendapatan, -5,694 Minyak, -6,497
-8,000 -10,000
Sumber : BI
ASEAN COMMUNITY
ASEAN SOCIAL AND CULTURAL COMMUNITY
ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
Single Market and Production Base
Competitive Economic Region
Free Flow of Goods
Competition Policy
SME Development
Consumer Protection
Initiative for ASEAN Integration
Free Flow of Services
Free Flow of Investment
Freer Flow of Capital
Free Flow of Skilled Labour Priority Integration Sectors Food, Agriculture, Forestry
Intellectual Property Rights Infrastructure Development Taxation e-Commerce
Equitable Economic Development
ASEAN POLITICAL AND SECURITY COMMUNITY
Integration into the Global Economy
Coherent approach towards external economic relations Enhanced participation in global supply networks
Neraca Perdagangan Intra-ASEAN: kinerja Indonesia relatif paling buruk, defisit makin melebar perlu strategi yang tidak memperlebar defisit perdagangan & neraca transaksi berjalan
Milyar US$
40
35
Non-Migas Singapura
30 25 20 15
Thailand
10
Malaysia
5 -
Vietnam Filipina
(5)
INDONESIA (10) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Perdagangan Jasa ASEAN
defisit Indonesia terbesar dan persisten dibutuhkan strategi dan kebijakan untuk menutup defisit jasa yg lebar
15
US$ Milyar Singapura 10
5
Filipina Malaysia
0
Vietnam -5
Thailand -10
Indonesia
-15 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Indonesia hanya tinggal mengandalkan strategi Non-Tariff Barriers
kerjasama ekonomi yang agresif, mengakibatkan penurunan Import Tariff yang tanpa strategi
India (2013)
Brazil (2011)
China (2011)
Russia (2013)
Indonesia (2011)
All products
13.9
12.2
12.0
10.1
4.8
Agricultural
43.3
11.2
22.6
23.4
13.6
Industrial
11.8
12.3
11.2
9.2
4.2
Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-China
pasca CAFTA, defisit semakin membengkak 35 30 25 20 Import
Miliar US$
15 Export
10 5 Trade Balance
0 -5 -10 -15 -20 2001
2002
2003
2004
Sumber: International Trade Center
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-Jepang pasca JIEPA, non migas terus mengalami defisit
Value of Export & Import
Trade Balance
40
20
Oil & gas 35
Export 15
30
10 Import Miliar US$
Miliar US$
25
20
15
Trade Balance
5
-
10
(5) 5 Non-oil and gas
0
(10) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sumber: International Trade Center
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Investasi Untuk Penyelesaian Kemiskinan dan Pengangguran
Kinerja Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Tidak menyelesaikan kesenjangan, kemiskinan dan pengangguran
35
HIGH POVERTY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT
30
HIGH POVERTY HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
Papua Barat
Papua
25
Poverty (%)
Nusa Tenggara Timur 20
Bengkulu
Maluku Gorontalo
Aceh
Nusa Tenggara Barat
15
Sulawesi Barat
10 Kalimantan Tengah 5
LOW POVERTY Jawa Barat Kalimantan Timur Banten HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
Sulawesi Utara
Bali LOW POVERTY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT
DKI Jakarta
0 0
2
4
6 Open Unemployment Rate (%)
8
10
12
Sumber: BPS, @CORE
134
93
40
0 1999 2003 2009 2010 ta B Ka ali ls B a el K a b el lte B a ng nt Ka e n ltim Ke p J a ri mb Ri i Ka a u l ba Su r lu M t S u al ut mb a Ja r b S u ar m Su u t ls S u el l ba Ja r Su tim ms Ja e l t en g DI Su Y Su ltra Be lten g n La g k ul mp u un g NA D NT B Go NT ro T nta P a M a lo pu luk aB u a P a ra t pu a
(25% popul
ar
100
ak
80
Persen
140
IJ
160
DK
Millions
Kesenjangan Melebar
Kelas menengah baru pesat, kemiskinan masih sangat tinggi
(56 40
120
30
81 20
60 45
10
20
0
Provinsi
Sumber:ADB, Bank Dunia
Mendorong investasi bukan sekadar mendulang Pendapatan Asli Daerah. Perlu pertimbangan penguatan daya saing dan penyelesaian masalah struktural
Terimakasih
