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» ::J. g Fauzi, A. & S.Anna. 2002. Data Development Analysis (DEA) Kapasitas Sumberdaya Perikanan Pesisir. Working Paper Series:WP02ISEII01. Dept. of

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Lampiran 3 : Unit of Effort Days Perikanan Lemuru di selat Bali Year 1977 1978

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Untt of Effort Days 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1934 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1991 1992 1993 1994

1995 1996 1997

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

effort 2827370 28368,00

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Sumber : Dinas Perikanan Provinsi Bali dan Kabupaten Banyuwangi

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Lampiran 5: Jumlah alat tangkap purse seine yang digunakan eli Bali dan Muncar

Tahun 19n

Bali 74

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

102 106

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Ball

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1988

76

224

1989

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166

272 221

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85

173 185

250

1992

78

200

278

1993

1983

82

88

286

1994 1995

1985

88 81

200 200 190

282

1984

276

1996

190

273

1997

41

1986

Muncar 190 190 190

Total

190 190 190 190 190 190 190 140

260

70

73 73 72 75

76 78 79

266

258

262

263 263

262 265

266 268

1998 n 190 269 Sumber : Dinas Perikanan Provinsi Bali dan Kabupaten Banyuwangi 1987

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Lampiran 6 : Regressi C terhadap SOl dan Curah hujan

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0.907161 0.814321

Significance

SS

df R~ression

Residual Total

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MS 1.83E+09 1.87E+08

F 9.7713

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Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.828394

RSquare Adjusted R SQUare ANOVA

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4

6.377205 2.915806 9.293011

Coefficients 2.519812 -0.01389 -1.BE-05

Standard Error 0.926396 0.00664 4. 22E.Q5

2 2

Residual Total

MS

F 3.188603 2.187116 1.457903

SigniflCBnce F 0.313763

OJ

.-.

.. .. ::l I/)

;:;:

c:

Intercept

"

X Variable 1 X Variable 2

CD ~ III ::l

P-va/ue tStat 2.720016 0.112757 -2.09143 0.171611 -0.4272 0.710827

L.oM!er9S" -1.46615 -0.04245 -0.0002

0;' ::l

g' Lampiran 8: Regresi antara In(St+Yt) dan In(St) pada Model Surshing cc o

~

SUMMARY OUTPUT

I Reflfession Statistics Multiple R 0.857311

RSquare Adjusted R Square

j ::s £. i?i" ::s

Standard Error

0.734982 0.72394 0.286264

26

Observations

:IJ'"

.....

;:;:

if

o

8"

c ..... :l'

c· c o

::s

C

ac 3 o is

0'

?"

AN OVA

OJ

o o...,

CO

:t>

SS

Of Regression Residual Total

Intercept

t""'t-

X Variable 1

C ...,

F

24 25

5.454394 5.454394 66.55996 1.96673 0.081947 7.421125

Coefficients 2.817164 0.787336

Standard P-va/ue t Stat Error 0.971395 2.900121 0.007856 0.096506 8.158429 2.23E-08

1

CO

::J. C1 C

MS

Signfficance F 2.23E-08

Lower 95%

0.812303 0.588158

Q)

C ~

<

CO ..., (J)

t""'t-

'<

160

. Parameter diBeberapa staslUn M enurutM usun lal° RataRata L amprran 9 N°. Parameter Muslm Staeiun Produksi(ton) Suhu Sallnltas Postal ~ank. 2

Januan Mei Agustus S~ber

3

Januari Mei Agustus

September

4

Januari Mei Agustus Septembec

.. :::l

en

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8

Agustus

"C

September Januari

CD

:+ Q) :::l

tij0

10

:::l

to

o IC o

..::!.

Sanuari Mei

Mei Agustus September

Januari 14

Mej Agustus

September

2833 29,27 2834 2728 2816 29,33 28,52 2766 2827 2946 29,18 2746 28,37 29,38 28,87 2724 28,34 2969 29,69 2755 28,40 2969 2912 2769

3358 28,82 3408 3359 3369 32,27 34,08 22.65 33,85 32.44 34,08 3348 33,71 32,39 34,00 3365 33,74 3253 32,27 3356 33,70 32,69 3409 3357

0,25 0,35 0,19 0,65 0,36 0,14 025 0,37 0,30 0,19 0,22 0,45 016 030 009 031 0,30 017 027 006 0,36 0,22 0,42 031

3096 90900 7988 19481 9350 9350 12793 19964 18252 9798 7050 28096 2592 21860 50627 10014 11046

6822 13749 26993 2}66 23389 13940 26732

3681,14 7095,06 211492 298224 3681,14 7095,06 211492 2982.24 3681,14 7095,06 2114,92 2982,24 3681,14 7095,06 2114,92 298224 3681,14 709506 211492 298224 3681,14 7095,06 211492 298224

Somber: Diolah dari data Wudianto, 2001 'tl (I)

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HOR Cipto Dilindungi Undong-Undong

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Bogor Agricultural University

Hal? Cipta Dilindungi Undang-Undang

1. Dilarang mengutip sebagian atau seluruh Rarya tulis ini tanpo mencantumRon dan menyebutRan sumber:

a. Pengutipon hanya untuR Repentingan pendidiRan, penelitian, penulisan Rarya ilmiah, penyusunan laporan, penulisan RritiR atau tinjauan suatu masalah. b. Pengutipon tidaR merugiRan Repentingan yang wajar IPB. 2. Dilarang mengumumRan dan memperbanyaR sebagian atau seluruh Rarya tulis ini dalam bentuR apapun tanpa izin IPB.

Lampiran 11. Pendugaan Parameter Biologi Perikanan Lemuru eli Selat Bali dgn Algorithma Fox

I

Koefisien Regresi a=2.693225 1>==-.000035 Effort+C6 CPUE

Catch

f4'=(ft+ft+ 1)12

z==..aib -f 148450,73

7/ut 108096,74

@

19n

37870,50

27576

1978

25153,30

27818

0,90

29916,50

146231,23

161722,73

::r III

1979

26776,90

32015

084

23009,00

15313873

183096,75

'"

Q. "C

S' 3

'"

" OJ

" CD

::l III

:J

iii' :J

OJ

o to o

..::!.

2769700

1,37

1980

17281.20

14003

1,23

1762250

15M25,23

12845340

1981

2076800

21242

098

19817,50

156330,23 159340.73

159898.25 m12,28

1982

3795710

18393

2,06

16807,00

1983

4715440

15221

309

14433--,-50

161714~

52199,84

1984

3184780

13646

2,33

11600 50

164547,23

1985 1986 1987 1988

16258150

95M

170

n8000

70504 45 98947,_ 182n3,01 13Ot62,40

,.

5525,90

6005

0,92

7957,00

168367-.J3 168190,73

12649,10

9909

1~

9992,00

166155,73

29131,50

10075

289

11188 50

164959,23

57050,42

Z4042i 20

12302

h95

15133,00

161014,73

8238860

1990

33307,40

17984

1.85

184H,00

157648,73

8502ti.21

1991

49679 80

19034

2,61

111242,00

157905 73

1992

49551

2,84

13972,50

162175~

1993

43709.66

4,16

11376,50

3,74

1994

45844,30

17450 10495 12258

10644,00

164n1,23 165503,73

1995

1841430

9030

2,04

949250

166655,23

60498 99 57111,13 39562 74 44252,93 8172435

1996

1153410

9956

1,18

11699 00

164448 73

141~,54

1997

,-------

6305650

13443

469

28357,50

147790,23

3150738

1998

76795.53

43272

1,n

26687,00

149460,73

84216,68

1999

18413,54

10102

11106,00

16M41,73

90544 85

2000

13229,89

12110

1.82 1,09

10155,50

165992,23

151941,24

2001

7547,49

8201

092

14762,00

161385,73

175359,54

2002

70843,64

21323

3,32

10661,50

165486,23

49809,17

n

avgq=

ziut+ 1

CD

o o ...,

(C

~

(C

::J.

(')

C

lib

ziut+llb

geomtric avg ~=

164177.36

-28571,43

79525,31

17483700

-2857143

133151.31

124088,70

-28571.043

154524,32

16214335

·28571,43

99881 97

75753,47

-28571,43

131326.82

5143370

-28671,43

4t64O 85

69290,58

-28571,43

2362842 41933 02

9670260

-2857143

182966,35

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1. Dilarang mengutip sebagian atau seluruh Iwrya tulis ini tanpa mencantumRan dan menyebutl?an sumber: a. Pengutipan hanya untul? I?epentingan pendidil?an, penelitian, penulisan I?arya ilmiah, penyusunan laporan, penulisan I?ritil? atau tinjauan suatu masalah. b. Pengutipan tidal? merugil?an I?epentingan yang wajar IPB. 2. Dilarang mengumuml?an dan memperbanyal? sebagian atau seluruh I?arya tulis ini dalam bentul? apapun tanpa izin IPB.

Lampiran 12. Value (000 Rp.) Perikanan l.emuru di Selat Bali Tabun 1988-1997 TotaI(rata· Tahun

@ ::I:

III

.." n

"C III

3

dl

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Muncar 2937904 5,398003 4,771,306 4,820,658 4419101 6,574,320 6845,299 3,251,601 2231842 5223700

.

Jembrana 2720,673 2,491209 3,125,934 4,071,872 4088645 .2,965,826 4,859,016 7,275,876 3,702 425 6,084 265

rata) 2,829288.5 3,944,606.0 3,948,620.0 4,446,265.0 4253,873.0 4,770,073.0 5852,157.5 5,263,738.5 2,967133.5 5653982.5 ... "lin .973.7S

.

Sumber : Dinas Penkanan PrOV1DSl Bah dan Kabupaten Banyuwangi

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Ha~ Cipta Dilindungi Undang-Undang

1. Dilarang mengutip sebagian atau seluruh I:?arya tulis ini tanpa mencantumlKln don menyebutRan sumber: a. Pengutipan hanya untuR Repentingan pendidiRan, penelitian, penulisan Rarya ilmiah, penyusunan laporan, penulisan Rritil:? otau tinjauan suatu masalah. b. Pengutipan tidal:? merugiRan Repentingan yang wajar IPB.

2. Dilarang mengumuml:?an don memperbanyaR sebagian atau seluruh Rarya tulis ini dalam bentuR apapun tanpo izin IPB.

• , .,~. '.'\' ,

ampiran 14. Analisis model Schaefer file 11 c:\shazamw\lemsch.txt

NIT 11 IS NOW ASSIGNED TO: c:\shazamw\lemsch.txt sample 1 26 -read(ll} Year Catch Effort CPUE / skiplines=2 - 4 VARIABLES AND 26 OBSERVATIONS STARTING AT OBS

1

yrint Year Catch Effort CPUE

If>'

~

1917.000 1978.000

37870.50

1979.000

26776.90

32015.00

1980.000 1981. 000

17281.20

14003.00

20768.00

1982.000

37957.10

1983.000

47154.40 31847.80

21242.00 18393.00 15221.00 13646.00

16258.60 5525.900 12649.10

9555.000 6005.000 9909.000

29131.50

10075.00 12302.00

1984.000 1985.000 1986.000

.. ..

1987.000 1988.000 1989.000 1990.000

;::;:

1991. 000 1992.000 1993.000

"tl

1995.000

~

1996.000 1997.000

:::l III

c:

3.

iii"

1998.000

~

OJ

1999.000 2000.000

o

2001.000 2002.000

~

~

49551.77 43709.66

45844.30 18414.30 11534.10 63056.50 76195.53 18413.54 13229.89

12258.00 9030.000

3.739949 2.039236

9955.000

1.158624

13443.00 43272.00

4.690657

8201.000

7547.490

NAME

N

CATCH EFFORT

CPUE

MEAN

VARIANCE

MINIMUM

58.500

1977.0

MAXIMUM 2002.0

0.37122E+09

5525.9

76796.

0.73328E+08 1.1584

6005.0

43272 •

0.83639

4.6907

ST. DEV

26 26

1989.5 32090.

19267.

26 26

16246.

8563.2

2.0613

1.0763

7.6485

CORRELATION MATRIX OF VARIABLES -

III ::::l

1. 774716 1. 822762 1.092476 0.9203134 3.322405

10102.00 12110.00

70843.64 21323.00 I STAT Yea%: Catch Effort CPUE I peor

YEAR

'tl

24042.20 33307.40 49679.80

1994.000

17964.00 19034.00 17450.00 10495.00

1.373314 0.9042095 0.8363861 1.234101 0.9776857 2.063671 3.097983 2.333856 1. 701580 0.9202165 1.276526 2.891464 1. 954333 1.854119 2.610056 2.839643 4.164808

27576.00 27818.00

25153.30

26 OBSERVATIONS

§,

C

::::l

1.0000

YEAR

...::a-

CATCH

:if

EFFORT

r+

~ c

....

a: 0

c

0

::::l

'" c

.... c 0

OJ

..,0

»

(Q

::!.

0

e ..,e

9

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CPUE

-0.24203 0.33550 YEAR

0

(Q

3

0"

0.22577

I~OLS

Q)

C

~

<

..,CD -. (J)

I"""+'

'<

1.0000

-0.15782 EFFoRT

1.0000 CPUE

CPUE Effort/ rstat anova

2 CURRENT

REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAROLS ESTIMATION 26 OBSERVATIONS

500

PAR~

DEPENDENT VARIABLE " .• NOTE •• SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 26

(')

I"""+'

1.0000 0.55354 0.68807 CATCH

R-SQUARE

=

0.0249

R-5QUARE ADJUSTED

~

= CPUE -0.0157

VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 1.1766 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTDMATE-SIGMA 1.0847 SUM OF SQUARED

ERROR5-SSE~

28.238

MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE 2.0613 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION ~ -37.9658

169

• ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE - FRW MEAN OF 55 MS 0.72131 0.12131 1. 28.238 24. 1. 1766 28.959 25. 1. 1584

;SSION t

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE S5 111. 20

E:SSION R

@L

rn~

DF

F 0.613 P-VALOE 0.441

ZERO

55.600

F 47.255

28.238

2. 24.

1.1766

P-VALUE

139.44

26.

5.3630

0.000

MS

I

III

~

ABLE

£!. ME

ESTIMATED COEFFICIENT

STANDARD

PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY P-VALVE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS

T-RATIO 24 DF

ERROR

~ mT -0.19836£-04 0.2533£-04 -0.7830 ; iTANT 2.3836 0.4633 5.145

0.441-0.158 0.000 0.724

-0.1578 0.0000

-0.1563 1.1563

~ ~IN-WATSON = 1.4214 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 1.4783 RHO = 0.27041 =ij {DUAL SUM = -0.2 2204E-14 RESIDUAL VARIANCE '" 1. 17 66 aJ OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS>e 22.340 ~ 2UARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.0249 ~ 5 TEST: 10 RUNS, 11 POS, 0 ZERO, 15 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = -1.5155 ~ ~

plot CPUE/ time nowide plot Effort/t~e nowide

"

~ oint CPUE Effort ~ NOTE •• SAMPLE RANGE SET TO:

1,

26

::l

2: g-

~. !UlRED MEMORY IS PAR"" 4 CURRENT PAR= aJ NOTE .. TEST LAG ORDER AUTOMATICALLY SET

3

cg

o

o )TAL NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS

=

500

26

~

\RIABLE : CPUE

[CKEY-FULLER TESTS - NO.LAGS NULL fiYPOTHESIS

ONSTANT, NO TREND • ( 1 ) =0 Z-TEST .(1)-0 T-TEST , ( a) "A (1 ) .. 0

N'

S'

~

~

o

NO.OBS

=

TEST STATISTIC

ASY. CRITICAL

-lB.377

-11.2

-3.5751 6.4565

-2.57

25

VALUE 10%

3.78 AlC =

SC '"

.... .2: o c o

::J

C

....co 3 o

9

o

?"

0.220 0.318

00·------------------------------------------------------------------------:ONSTANT, TREND ,Q \.(1)=0 Z-TEST -20.234 -18.2 ~

\(1)=0

T-TEST

O A (0)=A(1)=A(2)=0 " .~(I)""A(2):<0

-3.8266

-3.13

4.9387

4.03

7.3406

5.34

}>

AlC ""

0.231

SC =

0.377

(Q

~. --------------------------------------------------------------------------

() VARIABLE ; EFFORT TESTS - NO. LAGS =

£. DICKEY-FULLER .-+ C

OJ

NULL

HYPOTHESIS

TEST STATISTIC

1

NO.OBS =

24

ASY. CRITICAL

VALUE 10%

C

170

:J

<

CD

_

Ci1 . .-+

'<

-------

~. ",_.

• ..

:\

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,

STANT I TREND )=0 T-TEST ) =A( 1) =A(2)=0 )=A{2)=O

-2.8933 3.0594 4.5220

-3.13 4.03 5.34 AlC SC

=

18.287 18.484

=

~oint

CPUE Effortl type=df ndiff=l nlaq=4 ~oint CPUE Effort/ type=df ndiff=2 nlaq=4 ::I:

~ to CPUE Effortl rstat

..

o -t;' II RED MEMORY IS PAR=

3 CURRENT PAR=

500

III

3 NDENT VARIABLE = CPUE : ITE .. R-SQUARE,ANOVA,RESIDUALS DONE ON ORIGINAL VARS

;J;

26 OBSERVATIONS "O JT SQUARES ESTIMATION 0.00100 ~ :OCHRANE-ORCUTT TYPE PROCEDURE WITH CONVERGENCE

.. .. :::l C/I

1

0.00000

2

0.21041

LOG L.F. -37.9658 -31.0145

3

0.27083

-37.0745

ITERATION

;:;:

c:

"0 (I)

RHO

~

~ ; L.F.

0.27083

AT RHO

-37.0745

SSE 28.238 26.290 26.290

Di'

:::l ASYMPTOTIC ASYMPTOTIC ASYMPTOTIC to VARIANCE ST.ERROR T-RATIO ESTIMATE o 0.18879 1.43458 0.27083 0.03564 CO ..,o ...... ;QUARE 0.0922 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED 0.0544 [ANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 1.0954 ~DARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 1.0466 OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 26.290 ~ OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE 2.0613 L OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUKCTION = -37.0745

[ABLE !\ME

F

ORT STANT

ESTIMATED STANDARD T-RATIO ERROR COEFFICIENT 24 DF -O.20SB6E-04 0.2501£-04 -0.8230 2.4084

COSIN-WATSON

=

1.7721

0.4968

4.848

PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY P-VALUE CORR. COEFFICIENT AT MEANS 0.419-0.166 0.000 0.703

VON NEUMANN RATIO = 1.8430

o IDUAL SUM = 0.12660 RESIDUAL VARIANCE "'" (Q OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS"" 21 . 617 o QUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.0922

-, 5 TEST: 10 RUNS, 9 POS, 0 ZERO, 17 NEG BIN H STATISTIC (ASYMPTOTIC NORMAL) = 1.1495 DIFIED FOR AUTO ORDER~l (Q top

»

-0.1636 0.0000

RHO

-0.1622

1.1684

0.06100

1. 0961

NORMAL STATISTIC - -1.2299

~.

(')

C

...... C -,

Q)

C

:J

<

CO -, CJ)

......

'<

171

DAFTAR PUSTAKA. Department of Finance and Management Science Saint Mary's University

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