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LAMPIRAN

Lampiran 1. Nama dan Keterangan Peubah Yang Digunakan Blok 1. Fiskal

2. Output

3. Tenaga Kerja

4. Pengeluaran Per Kapita 5. Distribusi Pendapatan 6. Kemiskinan

Peubah Lainnya

Nama PJKK RETRK PADL PADK BHPJK BHBPJK DAUK PDKL TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK PDRBA PDRBNA PDRB YCAP TKA TKNA TKT TKASH RURUN URBUN UPHA UPHR UMPR RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI RPL UPL INFL POP AREA URBP AMH PNS DDF

Keterangan Penerimaan pajak daerah Penerimaan retribusi daerah Penerimaan Asli Daerah lain Total Penerimaan Asli Daerah Bagi Hasil Pajak Bagi Hasil Bukan Pajak Dana Alokasi Umum Kab/Kota Penerimaan Daerah Lainnya Total Penerimaan Daerah Pengeluaran Rutin Daerah Pengel.Pembangunan Pertanian Pengel. Pembangunan Non Pertanian Total Pengeluaran Pembangunan Total Pengeluaran Daerah Prod. Domestik Regional Bruto Pertanian Prod. Domestik Regional Bruto Non Pert Total Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Pendapatan (PDRB) Per Kapita Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Pertanian Penyerapatan Tenaga Kerja Non Pert. Total Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Pangsa TKA terhadap Total Tenaga Kerja Tingkat Pengangguran Perdesaan Tingkat Pengangguran Perkotaan Upah Tenaga Kerja Sektor Pertanian Upah Karyawan/Tenaga Kerja Rata-rata Upah Minimum Provinsi Pengeluaran Per Kapita RT Perdesaan Pengeluaran Per Kapita RT Perkotaan Indeks Gini Daerah Perdesaan Indeks Gini Daerah Perkotaan Tingkat Kemiskinan Daerah Rural Indeks Kedalaman Kemiskinan Rural Indeks Keparahan Kemiskinan Rural Tingkat Kemiskinan Daerah Urban Indeks Kedalaman Kemiskinan Urban Indeks Keparahan Kemiskinan Urban Garis Kemiskinan Daerah Rural Garis Kemiskinan Daerah Urban Tingkat Inflasi Jumlah Penduduk Luas Wilayah Derajat Urbanisasi Angka Melek Huruf (Literacy Rate) Jumlah Pegawai Negeri Sipil Dummy Desentralisasi Fiskal

Satuan Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp juta Rp Orang Orang Orang Persen Persen Persen Rp/bulan Rp/bulan Rp/bulan Rp juta/bulan Rp juta/bulan

Persen Persen Persen Persen Persen Persen Rp Rp Persen Orang Km2 Persen Persen Orang 0 = Sebelum 1 = Setelah

Lampiran 2. Data dan Sumber Sumber Data Provinsi (1999) NAD SUMUT SUMBAR RIAU JAMBI SUMSEL BENGKULU LAMPUNG JABAR JATENG DIY JATIM BALI NTB NTT KALBAR KALTENG KALSEL KALTIM SULUT SULTENG SULSEL SULTRA MALUKU PAPUA

BPS, Depkeu PJKK 14388 27199 10039 29113 3163 12015 1539 4939 100297 51181 10785 79383 161500 8093 4049 5467 2251 9922 16568 4975 2039 16606 1461 2921 3508

BPS, Depkeu RETRK 5586 16271 7328 6735 3980 7488 2271 3721 96847 77643 10836 71682 14978 4120 5741 3110 2342 5081 9692 5505 1963 15477 1845 6144 3931

BPS, Depkeu PADL 2201 2963 3818 7046 3743 4990 731 1004 31929 16405 3501 24765 13679 2163 1797 925 2381 5440 4731 1947 1297 5766 1703 2668 2662

BPS, Depkeu BHPJK 38062 72748 28914 73582 20632 46065 7583 19141 173932 94955 14921 159162 37816 12962 26637 21674 36594 37653 77304 14120 8711 50799 7794 21012 50343

BPS, Depkeu BHBPJK 1468 4789 3385 8373 1578 18233 1337 1007 18610 2281 789 3854 623 745 546 3196 11614 25938 78106 3016 1206 8095 2079 8940 19877

BPS, Depkeu DAUK 282698 492533 289113 198673 148611 271881 100224 240468 1046100 1033127 146567 1098131 235974 225401 299354 243281 163202 196388 201610 153236 121310 429068 115592 184290 283295

BPS, Depkeu PDKL 9370 16218 14730 19011 6970 27151 4583 7271 59652 51221 8251 53795 86342 6597 13074 12575 10681 14224 52028 4168 4061 25954 3394 6876 12423

BPS Depkeu PERTK 184339 438037 233430 216420 123130 249814 73163 186956 1050086 1002533 139363 1075826 280208 152277 238565 186786 133979 175631 240931 113380 86454 371850 83342 107662 241354

BPS, Depkeu PEPPBA 4787 9037 5573 8933 3221 8122 1569 3848 16731 14337 2799 17158 5472 6447 9071 3181 4850 4431 5455 1587 1272 10586 3051 2310 5916

BPS, Depkeu PEPBNA 138519 171479 106877 91710 51387 98144 39726 82220 413696 271082 41805 352821 221806 95955 91283 96226 82990 98990 139610 68664 48610 151614 42771 117723 142058

Lampiran 2. Lanjutan Sumber Data

BPS

BPS

Provinsi (1999) NAD SUMUT SUMBAR RIAU JAMBI SUMSEL BENGKULU LAMPUNG JABAR JATENG DIY JATIM BALI NTB NTT KALBAR KALTENG KALSEL KALTIM SULUT SULTENG SULSEL SULTRA MALUKU PAPUA

PDRBA 2488479 7288312 1636619 1664725 880435 2408343 536798 2613954 8497781 8184671 817810 10056430 1423941 1205225 1085397 1705075 1539690 1301378 1745202 780557 964507 3516068 528779 453944 1333075

PDRBNA 3579216 15454708 5940417 7089145 2067359 7198225 1141481 4260433 40575408 28717819 4006636 44839171 5875460 2193137 1748815 5360718 2492535 4752171 9838980 2256339 1322873 6084432 1059678 869301 6631044

Susenas/ BPS RPCE 0.110224 0.113822 0.142149 0.136047 0.112125 0.113548 0.119033 0.102621 0.116551 0.099645 0.111817 0.100888 0.153148 0.100775 0.076390 0.107255 0.132262 0.119276 0.129025 0.122000 0.107799 0.120303 0.102225 0.100261 0.086162

Susenas/ BPS UPCE 0.165968 0.162624 0.187822 0.190276 0.151721 0.157958 0.169955 0.157237 0.169672 0.141001 0.176906 0.156081 0.215692 0.144476 0.131709 0.206620 0.211469 0.180652 0.190328 0.184421 0.160118 0.165618 0.158639 0.156292 0.206726

BPS, BI INFL 5.57 1.68 4.23 4.35 0.49 3.26 0.47 3.34 4.29 1.51 2.51 0.24 4.39 0.59 10.65 4.49 -0.13 1.47 3.69 7.41 3.58 1.64 1.29 8.26 3.49

Sakernas/ BPS TKA 937948 2483811 880538 809393 609209 1885568 482530 1955481 5129385 6345579 480334 7845788 604325 895613 1315886 1120396 431863 663071 362641 600555 582091 1692697 415287 522062 704944

Sakernas/ BPS TKNA 592147 2185940 943434 774705 494762 1410550 250725 1085702 11051640 8279956 1044994 9139833 1107814 820464 373144 575284 357648 881931 676445 561641 386544 1383703 288730 397153 220272

Sakernas/ BPS RURUN 7.05 4.51 4.88 6.06 1.97 2.30 2.29 3.92 7.75 3.21 2.90 3.09 1.98 0.92 1.57 1.04 2.14 1.77 8.72 7.20 3.83 3.70 2.42 2.50 3.20

Sakernas/ BPS URBUN 10.59 12.07 8.94 11.05 6.82 12.25 6.42 8.63 12.75 6.69 4.23 8.89 3.38 3.82 11.31 5.81 8.51 3.98 13.90 10.45 6.55 13.53 10.86 10.89 16.36

Sakernas/ BPS UPHA 173253 115115 82416 228332 111357 82703 75090 70746 53723 58082 69457 59078 103326 60538 55652 105155 217620 89445 220680 96065 53570 85663 101654 134362 173754

Lampiran 2. Lanjutan Sumber Data Provinsi (1999) NAD SUMUT SUMBAR RIAU JAMBI SUMSEL BENGKULU LAMPUNG JABAR JATENG DIY JATIM BALI NTB NTT KALBAR KALTENG KALSEL KALTIM SULUT SULTENG SULSEL SULTRA MALUKU PAPUA

Sakernas/ BPS UPHR 212708 135763 158520 259869 158730 121095 152859 106126 125385 99374 142619 106165 192920 123738 197505 173398 205392 172333 266904 141029 113268 165808 162201 246831 287493

Sakernas/ BPS UMPR 76000 77778 59041 102347 61475 62271 62241 51613 77778 58397 53279 63736 93970 59426 72222 75758 82278 70042 93269 56364 47319 59200 53691 95238 101810

BPS PNS 96787 233608 123804 84774 60724 131270 43991 104617 539071 516887 104891 532471 85942 71150 82210 77161 55005 79429 62509 92065 58487 196341 52527 64660 77344

Susenas/ BPS RHCI 15.415 18.907 9.740 9.620 25.247 27.928 24.551 40.573 31.871 37.756 36.784 40.846 15.608 44.640 66.110 38.042 13.429 26.377 35.065 26.829 32.694 24.938 44.438 59.904 72.192

Susenas/ BPS RPGI 2.271 3.042 1.139 1.866 4.383 4.577 4.160 9.139 5.941 7.070 7.973 8.586 2.687 9.947 18.394 7.822 2.195 4.717 7.139 5.287 7.260 4.165 9.950 16.146 26.113

Susenas/ BPS RPSI 0.523 0.772 0.216 0.599 1.039 1.147 0.950 2.931 1.622 1.970 2.366 2.622 0.730 3.017 6.703 2.288 0.579 1.229 2.174 1.692 2.493 1.059 3.217 5.718 12.523

Susenas/ BPS UHCI 5.426 10.809 8.785 8.534 15.413 14.468 10.409 19.905 20.817 23.720 22.118 19.507 10.666 30.174 28.674 6.170 5.004 7.987 8.744 11.698 16.719 17.416 13.740 18.640 6.065

Susenas/ BPS UPGI 0.759 1.466 0.954 0.871 2.586 2.615 1.434 3.211 4.349 4.286 4.148 3.223 1.625 6.357 5.754 0.683 0.537 1.050 1.569 1.874 3.083 2.543 2.693 3.206 1.016

Susenas/ BPS UPSI 0.154 0.308 0.166 0.137 0.612 0.691 0.321 0.771 1.350 1.142 1.148 0.801 0.382 1.963 1.642 0.130 0.096 0.221 0.443 0.443 0.940 0.578 0.769 0.809 0.234

Susenas/ BPS RPL 31.382 26.248 29.483 42.736 32.568 28.146 29.861 22.703 27.354 27.561 31.464 26.898 40.933 30.605 33.406 35.126 38.808 30.342 43.120 27.601 23.745 27.607 24.667 49.646 43.010


Susenas/ BPS UPL 37.192 34.193 37.331 44.577 39.624 35.214 43.907 30.497 40.431 35.961 36.223 34.403 45.329 36.822 42.510 44.793 42.290 39.515 47.734 33.083 28.236 34.143 30.354 56.407 42.927

Susenas/ BPS AMH 93.08 95.76 94.70 95.51 93.74 93.39 92.65 91.76 92.10 84.75 85.49 81.32 82.70 72.82 81.17 83.19 94.80 92.77 93.51 97.22 92.63 83.19 87.07 95.77 71.18

BPS

BPS

BPS

POP 3932248 11314035 4190472 4563812 2343855 8658025 1370461 6547871 42599660 30587007 3089542 34278129 3086739 3765269 3858118 3683625 1750092 2922840 2363256 2784018 2022644 7697266 1721225 1951490 2047410

URBP 25.27 44.97 28.68 37.40 31.15 30.62 29.06 18.26 47.68 35.45 67.08 35.37 40.23 20.15 13.16 22.83 27.00 31.19 50.89 28.78 26.11 30.69 25.51 27.88 26.16

AREA 51937 73587 42899 94560 53437 93083 19789 35384 34597 32549 3186 47922 5633 20153 47351 146807 153564 43546 230277 27488 63678 62365 38140 77870 365466

Susenas/ BPS RGINI 0.21 0.22 0.24 0.20 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.28 0.24 0.23 0.28 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.22 0.20 0.24 0.27 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.26 0.22 0.28

Susenas/ BPS UGINI 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.25 0.26 0.29 0.26 0.29 0.31 0.30 0.35 0.31 0.30 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.31 0.31 0.27 0.23 0.30

DDF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


BPS, Depkeu PJKK 6743 25485 10799 27534 2620 14169 1373 4582 87901 41157 9446 66160 122337 5112 4076 4815 2131 10017 13460 7108 1858 16084 1695 2993 1943

BPS, Depkeu RETRK 4278 15898 7805 6125 3771 9375 1831 4113 81019 69073 9803 61180 12778 4161 5066 2897 3084 4047 1027 5180 1586 15500 2367 8088 3779

BPS, Depkeu PADL 2782 2889 1877 6147 3113 5242 524 1409 18381 11770 1954 17419 7509 2011 2330 2828 7352 2168 4728 1490 6276 5705 470 2578 4235

BPS, Depkeu BHPJK 42832 72804 25738 72251 22652 48912 8646 22696 174355 100025 15920 149531 33729 14959 25160 21552 28712 34858 71200 13176 8592 51643 6569 25025 50865


BPS, Depkeu DAUK 438738 467876 219782 225128 142682 313128 91105 223805 922734 866826 127703 1004878 232954 438738 467876 219782 225128 142682 313128 91105 223805 922734 866826 127703 1004878

BPS, Depkeu PDKL 23416 37949 43455 16410 10231 42679 5931 6181 89310 59870 22790 75526 96941 23416 37949 43455 16410 10231 42679 5931 6181 89310 59870 22790 75526

BPS Depkeu PERTK 203366 401193 186138 195553 114055 288702 70345 166846 955476 838620 121172 968151 236894 138464 225747 157530 113963 181331 223814 126064 81868 351644 71043 144306 249802




BPS

BPS


PDRBA 2525972 7617423 1645577 1790260 943282 2980104 567320 2623104 8412880 8455973 901380 10126247 1447768 1211250 1110938 1741180 1648069 1415817 1789306 1110936 1033815 3519653 531161 680666 1399324

PDRBNA 3573062 16226116 6222661 7859616 2116495 7413763 1176930 4480904 43559460 29776701 4116329 46565520 6074073 3165975 1841434 5532820 2444446 4919356 10176880 2386814 1349885 6547254 1141032 853385 6739960

Susenas/ BPS RPCE 0.110224 0.150136 0.179309 0.224728 0.147018 0.155517 0.150063 0.126688 0.157655 0.124184 0.155217 0.133735 0.198412 0.123038 0.136581 0.180581 0.176450 0.173775 0.192826 0.178651 0.162805 0.147366 0.148134 0.100261 0.171318

Susenas/ BPS UPCE 0.165968 0.105420 0.127272 0.137238 0.107402 0.101277 0.104422 0.090376 0.109648 0.091685 0.102367 0.092543 0.147903 0.099103 0.079473 0.105977 0.127409 0.114175 0.124961 0.113017 0.102278 0.098543 0.093738 0.156292 0.079120

BPS, BI INFL 10.57 5.90 10.99 10.34 8.40 8.49 8.21 10.18 8.52 8.73 7.32 10.46 9.81 5.19 10.62 8.34 8.57 7.57 11.91 11.41 8.11 9.73 11.25 8.52 10.23

Sakernas/ BPS TKA 939871 2653101 923563 732679 672440 2001665 508991 1994436 4761529 6198789 556991 7754372 519959 837227 1288446 1077510 427176 747146 401794 681454 594239 1824189 446673 523696 730847








BPS PNS 101497 223907 119816 85223 61269 130534 44660 104620 521076 501587 99429 516465 86180 72051 85520 77095 56651 78765 63148 90070 58956 192839 53231 64438 78263

Susenas/ BPS RHCI 15.415 13.077 7.162 5.730 12.237 12.215 19.463 28.490 19.179 19.776 34.572 23.964 5.916 29.357 56.602 33.283 6.274 17.978 18.915 11.922 14.178 15.124 25.434 59.904 57.039

Susenas/ BPS RPGI 2.271 2.354 1.147 0.957 2.240 1.750 3.335 6.029 3.120 3.004 6.712 4.449 0.820 5.539 14.058 6.194 0.977 3.445 3.051 1.940 2.553 2.531 5.114 16.146 19.645

Susenas/ BPS RPSI 0.523 0.677 0.329 0.262 0.642 0.426 0.881 1.938 0.792 0.735 1.837 1.281 0.167 1.547 4.883 1.726 0.227 0.957 0.812 0.495 0.751 0.675 1.555 5.718 9.155

Susenas/ BPS UHCI 5.426 5.061 5.906 5.323 12.049 7.648 5.695 20.039 8.859 12.110 9.630 8.752 5.284 19.248 32.886 6.015 4.756 1.469 3.719 7.204 6.249 8.121 1.691 18.640 5.787

Susenas/ BPS UPGI 0.759 0.711 0.956 0.887 2.007 1.028 0.833 4.143 1.583 1.895 1.456 1.275 0.781 3.531 7.315 1.165 0.845 0.195 0.529 1.149 1.236 1.215 0.310 3.206 1.266

Susenas/ BPS UPSI 0.154 0.183 0.240 0.230 0.552 0.222 0.208 1.235 0.434 0.470 0.370 0.317 0.173 0.954 2.298 0.381 0.212 0.033 0.115 0.360 0.387 0.309 0.080 0.809 0.411

Susenas/ BPS RPL 32.952 25.110 27.948 38.558 28.818 31.992 27.753 21.695 24.455 23.960 29.466 23.695 37.632 27.020 33.167 33.146 32.887 28.489 41.258 27.114 21.882 24.648 20.638 46.693 39.330


Susenas/ BPS UPL 39.796 32.711 35.388 40.218 35.061 40.025 40.807 29.144 31.197 29.327 36.048 29.106 43.756 32.508 42.207 42.268 35.839 37.102 45.672 32.499 26.021 30.483 25.395 54.063 39.254

Susenas/ BPS BPS AMH POP 93.12 3929233 96.21 11642489 94.99 4248518 95.80 4947972 94.43 2407166 93.98 6899058 91.54 1563804 90.91 6730754 92.49 44025397 85.63 31223269 80.51 3121044 81.74 34765999 84.23 3150058 76.32 4008602 82.83 3823152 85.24 4016353 95.68 1855474 92.21 2984024 93.73 2451895 98.10 2834366 92.89 2175993 83.64 8050788 88.76 1820379 95.81 1895575 70.11 2213831

BPS

BPS

URBP 28.67 42.45 27.83 38.78 28.22 35.22 28.40 21.00 50.72 39.63 57.66 40.89 47.51 35.09 15.92 26.64 28.07 35.94 57.05 24.36 21.57 29.28 21.12 48.89 22.95

AREA 51937 73587 42899 94560 53437 93083 19789 35384 34597 32549 3186 47922 5633 20153 47351 146807 153564 43546 230277 27488 63678 62365 38140 77870 365466



DDF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


BPS, Depkeu PJKK 7695 39677 13693 58743 4350 18893 1413 7251 155687 61449 15609 98226 188533 10069 5148 11905 3240 14464 23127 7738 3263 28091 2896 2161 4006

BPS, Depkeu RETRK 4961 22483 10514 36165 8789 11856 2926 6937 127285 105456 14783 89648 22747 14900 24472 28946 52998 21683 43665 19177 5285 43107 8232 3199 14742

BPS, Depkeu PADL 14653 28422 21168 82865 26492 51120 17488 11876 143555 131909 17579 186590 47438 22195 32256 60473 99816 38211 50179 24766 12193 51195 10779 6299 28960

BPS, Depkeu BHPJK 57237 134563 44563 149197 34325 68758 13154 33047 381962 159587 28402 237387 56793 24078 39130 37592 43122 53884 176535 23301 14172 78868 10008 27521 97524


BPS, Depkeu DAUK 232954 984066 503384 852087 310380 555208 195901 472534 2191788 2306404 314424 2548751 555151 387919 815431 528193 369535 389436 655032 369408 254199 867638 204613 469724 875582

BPS, Depkeu PDKL 96941 143206 76918 88629 28906 53822 11241 28215 282998 186564 58247 143623 170509 20729 30899 28172 19943 49125 111542 16113 8682 59199 21898 37452 17029

BPS Depkeu PERTK 442678 909360 451358 838460 265303 521763 167329 431293 2238270 2032623 341400 2156013 559868 307187 547923 404804 273881 380421 724920 315127 172866 787958 191789 386706 583679




BPS

BPS


PDRBA 2535751 7749605 1727447 1935106 980917 3023870 590082 2708911 10081585 8598968 886990 10246977 1487689 1219301 1139041 1782536 1677809 1511019 1886857 1185144 1110597 3558930 551359 671226 1518720

PDRBNA 3658155 17021876 6426515 8211717 2151378 7704123 1224397 4654108 45765190 30844870 4295554 48435174 6289382 3551387 1964018 5627412 2526110 5068044 10969883 2474989 1396866 7007525 1214981 844849 6495612

Susenas/ BPS RPCE 0.110224 0.173709 0.195239 0.257936 0.171341 0.157511 0.161351 0.145968 0.185793 0.148846 0.205163 0.165500 0.266203 0.147481 0.144406 0.182695 0.202699 0.217654 0.239127 0.204012 0.169627 0.182878 0.172880 0.210341 0.194383

Susenas/ BPS UPCE 0.165968 0.120061 0.139232 0.150700 0.127060 0.110654 0.110815 0.102296 0.117708 0.103234 0.117978 0.108719 0.172078 0.102934 0.084650 0.115129 0.145098 0.131419 0.154171 0.125067 0.114721 0.109427 0.097821 0.107923 0.109472

BPS, BI INFL 16.60 15.50 9.86 14.65 10.11 15.15 10.58 12.94 11.91 13.98 11.26 14.13 11.52 14.76 12.34 10.60 13.35 8.36 10.21 13.30 18.73 11.77 12.56 14.12 14.00

Sakernas/ BPS TKA 940972 2654515 913327 822016 675917 2193583 519536 2069185 6234792 2879541 644740 8244894 647257 953604 1287500 1072827 449648 767031 400058 577451 634037 1820423 446381 577955 701163








BPS PNS 101202 223487 119213 85102 60871 130337 44266 104021 520487 500128 99405 515065 85923 72008 105018 77021 56451 78112 63008 89876 58456 192347 52886 64341 78015

Susenas/ BPS RHCI 15.415 8.668 6.619 4.118 10.925 9.693 16.993 20.601 19.094 16.025 26.352 20.488 3.630 31.673 58.908 29.378 5.251 12.325 14.127 16.609 12.753 14.168 34.297 29.268 40.545

Susenas/ BPS RPGI 2.271 1.300 0.847 0.437 1.878 1.307 2.523 3.524 3.172 2.299 4.553 3.264 0.432 5.919 14.511 5.195 0.808 2.040 2.275 3.055 1.987 2.341 7.238 5.309 12.785

Susenas/ BPS RPSI 0.523 0.325 0.194 0.076 0.528 0.290 0.619 0.985 0.806 0.517 1.173 0.801 0.104 1.692 4.988 1.394 0.184 0.540 0.586 0.821 0.462 0.599 2.213 1.452 5.352

Susenas/ BPS UHCI 5.426 1.962 7.877 3.499 8.087 3.176 4.919 17.077 6.937 6.481 5.128 7.083 3.192 17.756 28.560 7.793 2.588 1.565 1.815 4.709 5.999 4.954 3.326 1.622 1.890

Susenas/ BPS UPGI 0.759 0.245 1.124 0.574 1.235 0.449 0.684 2.844 1.160 0.810 0.721 0.953 0.441 2.922 6.671 1.487 0.256 0.284 0.216 0.950 1.129 0.684 0.606 0.179 0.350

Susenas/ BPS UPSI 0.154 0.440 0.260 0.190 0.700 0.190 0.530 1.270 0.360 0.730 0.750 0.650 0.160 1.130 0.860 0.510 0.180 0.150 0.500 0.580 1.000 0.270 0.550 0.970 1.500

Susenas/ BPS RPL 28.031 23.729 27.887 39.261 28.161 24.811 26.754 22.086 24.795 23.445 29.575 23.524 31.583 25.325 32.067 34.344 33.114 28.166 39.591 29.305 20.077 24.349 21.074 44.267 35.928

Lampiran 2. Lanjutan Sumber Data Provinsi (2001) NAD SUMUT SUMBAR RIAU JAMBI SUMSEL BENGKULU LAMPUNG JABAR JATENG DIY JATIM BALI NTB NTT KALBAR KALTENG KALSEL KALTIM SULUT SULTE NG SULSEL SULTRA MALUKU PAPUA

Susenas/ BPS UPL 34.498 30.911 35.311 40.951 34.262 31.041 39.338 29.669 31.631 28.697 36.181 28.897 43.246 30.469 40.807 43.795 36.086 36.681 43.827 35.126 23.875 30.113 25.932 50.296 35.858

Susenas/ BPS BPS AMH POP 93.06 3984834 96.02 11791726 93.46 4273267 93.01 5161004 91.59 2450360 91.88 7969067 90.90 1609482 90.04 6809395 91.69 44789526 82.42 31504436 82.22 3142189 79.50 34995969 80.72 3190064 74.10 4079642 82.23 3883980 82.45 4106367 94.69 1910068 90.67 3025974 92.60 2519875 98.04 2872930 92.27 2230831 79.91 8166923 86.38 1876821 96.41 1899785 68.61 2284040

BPS

BPS

URBP 32.37 40.40 28.23 39.63 28.45 40.00 25.73 21.51 63.23 40.10 58.33 41.63 48.90 34.87 16.56 25.08 27.80 35.66 56.09 48.25 18.97 28.39 20.65 41.88 24.37

AREA 51937 73587 42899 94560 53437 93083 19789 35384 34597 32549 3186 47922 5633 20153 47351 146807 153564 43546 230277 27488 63678 62365 38140 77870 365466



DDF 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1


BPS, Depkeu PJKK 8302 50230 17327 62424 6131 24162 2304 9417 181295 78113 19737 114818 140559 15130 6518 10242 3267 16988 25980 9928 4286 39714 4123 4811 10354

BPS, Depkeu RETRK 6655 35241 12535 26008 16597 14429 3309 7941 148508 124441 17313 104929 27151 9022 12339 7285 4457 10508 28774 2045 3670 33616 5099 4868 7478

BPS, Depkeu PADL 43873 50420 59757 235486 46844 84012 8185 18579 314810 269836 33263 395373 97667 41763 67211 72107 85651 41914 153684 16560 14930 71778 23692 20405 49877

BPS, Depkeu BHPJK 60499 135852 45247 189249 42423 82354 13221 47665 437402 198939 26915 268657 73917 27948 40798 42128 43010 64209 162019 30756 19305 90273 11058 33700 143529


BPS, Depkeu DAUK 691541 1134489 586888 722257 362619 527306 208221 525833 2298777 2246664 358043 2405503 503631 409625 799688 560223 371153 443588 616466 396849 279153 1021031 200969 514764 1202928

BPS, Depkeu PDKL 166178 82158 34986 19572 13153 22920 6127 29535 200348 111087 39534 132253 90655 12307 11789 35807 7074 30223 91990 16117 7542 38591 800 11662 107084

BPS Depkeu PERTK 585514 1027904 514711 1007130 290506 559444 178074 494423 2446389 2047014 369720 2120674 586732 345058 586175 477498 293498 418727 979455 352484 206171 876898 182756 404507 952947




BPS

BPS


PDRBA 2605747 7753800 1871587 2038890 1042125 3153321 616274 2713032 9709382 8623653 835988 10461875 1532017 1235256 1172403 1822116 1807304 1541637 1989340 1244465 1187259 3720606 591356 685734 1596920

PDRBNA 3783864 18020828 6632341 8675466 2229948 8032319 1276661 4942393 48547751 31918466 4521681 50230404 6489652 3711681 2115541 5737067 2534071 5239092 11733391 2575782 1455869 7333609 1289614 873882 7130933

Susenas/ BPS RPCE 0.100261 0.247177 0.285230 0.351486 0.238407 0.240949 0.198381 0.203382 0.269779 0.212034 0.284583 0.233911 0.368264 0.176605 0.217154 0.295838 0.255289 0.269514 0.344328 0.254918 0.242248 0.244718 0.231248 0.194383 0.100261

Susenas/ BPS UPCE 0.156292 0.151131 0.199045 0.198809 0.164774 0.135338 0.131081 0.132134 0.160719 0.143572 0.154472 0.150984 0.222218 0.134892 0.112929 0.148597 0.185235 0.176852 0.210960 0.160132 0.153359 0.137483 0.142603 0.109472 0.156292

BPS, BI INFL 10.14 9.49 10.22 11.66 12.62 12.25 10.11 10.32 11.97 13.56 12.01 9.15 12.49 7.96 9.77 8.61 9.18 9.18 10.26 15.22 13.36 8.25 10.35 9.47 13.91

Sakernas/ BPS TKA 950881 2693844 935004 719080 709899 2240659 518110 2061642 5424127 2714353 640483 8216959 569604 984459 1327769 1091349 483279 733194 379842 558011 640771 1827966 441113 583953 708624








BPS PNS 102214 225722 120405 85953 61480 131640 44709 105061 525692 505129 100399 520216 86782 72728 106068 77791 57016 78893 63638 90775 59041 194270 53415 64984 78795

Susenas/ BPS RHCI 15.415 17.778 3.677 7.430 7.160 18.655 22.429 22.159 14.762 16.726 17.132 18.826 5.332 24.950 53.203 23.477 7.215 11.907 7.949 21.739 15.847 16.052 24.637 29.268 40.545

Susenas/ BPS RPGI 2.271 2.908 0.426 1.027 1.287 2.728 3.264 3.766 2.206 2.548 2.511 2.970 0.734 4.101 13.569 3.782 1.239 1.744 1.086 4.314 2.411 2.624 4.761 5.309 12.785

Susenas/ BPS RPSI 0.523 0.712 0.086 0.225 0.361 0.661 0.745 1.009 0.496 0.582 0.584 0.704 0.156 0.964 4.790 0.903 0.347 0.402 0.237 1.259 0.631 0.692 1.402 1.452 5.352

Susenas/ BPS UHCI 5.426 3.356 0.719 2.999 4.169 4.637 7.158 9.119 5.929 7.485 7.186 7.239 0.928 18.485 17.735 7.842 1.415 0.360 1.310 5.599 3.285 0.666 5.545 1.622 1.890

Susenas/ BPS UPGI 0.759 0.454 0.059 0.359 0.555 0.933 1.136 1.234 0.940 1.081 1.319 1.117 0.080 2.621 4.276 1.280 0.261 0.014 0.052 1.152 0.315 0.078 0.826 0.179 0.350

Susenas/ BPS UPSI 0.154 0.098 0.007 0.060 0.094 0.248 0.308 0.251 0.227 0.241 0.371 0.264 0.009 0.585 1.256 0.322 0.049 0.001 0.004 0.336 0.042 0.010 0.165 0.970 1.500

Susenas/ BPS RPL 31.914 26.566 32.124 43.017 28.525 26.263 28.122 25.540 28.708 27.102 33.417 25.966 43.071 28.663 31.360 32.350 34.970 28.712 50.949 33.848 23.693 26.588 22.748 39.931 44.065


Susenas/ BPS UPL 40.931 39.262 42.571 49.917 41.249 36.959 40.594 34.597 37.555 33.828 40.194 33.046 52.956 36.620 45.430 48.284 38.421 44.552 54.990 39.820 30.815 36.512 28.257 48.064 44.817

Susenas/ BPS AMH 95.76 96.11 95.14 96.46 94.71 94.11 93.04 93.00 93.12 85.66 85.90 83.19 84.19 77.80 84.13 86.93 96.36 93.29 95.19 98.79 93.32 83.54 88.24 96.28 74.40

BPS

BPS

BPS

POP 4040873 11941903 4297802 5382778 2494118 8142294 1656357 6888966 45775414 31785575 3163231 35224648 3231637 4151613 3945421 4198035 1966104 3068261 2589531 2911783 2286852 8284034 1934846 1903952 2356267

URBP 32.53 43.03 29.87 44.86 29.14 40.46 30.55 22.35 65.00 42.40 59.37 42.93 53.49 37.96 15.96 25.30 28.91 37.42 56.89 49.49 19.51 29.84 21.04 50.77 29.23

AREA 51937 73587 42899 94560 53437 93083 19789 35384 34597 32549 3186 47922 5633 20153 47351 146807 153564 43546 230277 27488 63678 62365 38140 77870 365466


Susenas/ BPS UGINI DDF 0.28 1 0.30 1 0.28 1 0.32 1 0.27 1 0.31 1 0.27 1 0.29 1 0.31 1 0.30 1 0.39 1 0.32 1 0.30 1 0.31 1 0.31 1 0.34 1 0.27 1 0.29 1 0.32 1 0.28 1 0.29 1 0.29 1 0.27 1 0.22 1 0.30 1

Lampiran 3. Program Komputer Estimasi Model Transfer Fiskal dan Kemiskinan Menggunakan SAS/ETS Versi 6.12 Prosedur SYSLIN Metode 2SLS OPTION NODATE NONUMBER; DATA FISKAL; SET DFKBI DFKTI; PADK = PJKK + RETRK + PADL; TPDK = PADK + BHPJK + BHBPJK + DAUK +PDKL; PEPBK = PEPBA + PEPBNA; TPEK = PERTK + PEPBK; TKT = TKA + TKNA; TKASH = (TKA/TKT)*100; PDRB = PDRBA + PDRBNA; YCAP = PDRB/POP; RUN; PROC SYSLIN 2SLS DATA=FISKAL; ENDOGENOUS PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK PDRBA PDRBNA PDRB YCAP TKA TKNA TKT RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI; INSTRUMENTS URBP PNS AREA UPHA UPHR UMPR POP TKASH BHPJK BHBPJK DAUK PDKL AMH RPL UPL RURUN URBUN INFL DDF; MODEL PJKK = PDRBNA DDF /DW; MODEL RETRK = PDRBNA DDF /DW; MODEL PADL = PDRBNA DDF /DW; MODEL PERTK = PADK BHPJK BHBPJK DAUK PNS DDF /DW; MODEL PEPBA = PADK BHPJK BHBPJK DAUK AREA DDF /DW; MODEL PEPBNA= PADK BHPJK BHBPJK DAUK AREA DDF /DW; MODEL PDRBA = TKA PEPBA DDF /DW; MODEL PDRBNA= TKNA PEPBNA DDF /DW; MODEL TKA = PDRBA UPHA DDF /DW; MODEL TKNA = PDRBNA UPHR DDF /DW; MODEL RPCE = YCAP AMH UMPR INFL DDF /DW; MODEL UPCE = YCAP AMH UMPR INFL DDF /DW; MODEL RGINI = YCAP TKASH URBP AMH RURUN DDF /DW; MODEL UGINI = YCAP TKASH URBP AMH URBUN DDF /DW; MODEL RHCI = RPCE RGINI RPL DDF /DW; MODEL RPGI = RPCE RGINI RPL DDF /DW; MODEL RPSI = RPCE RGINI RPL DDF /DW; MODEL UHCI = UPCE UGINI UPL DDF /DW; MODEL UPGI = UPCE UGINI UPL DDF /DW; MODEL UPSI = UPCE UGINI UPL DDF /DW; PADK TPDK PEPBK TPEK TKT PDRB YCAP RUN;

= PJKK + RETRK + PADL; = PADK + BHPJK + BHBPJK + DAUK +PDKL; = PEPBA + PEPBNA; = PERTK + PEPBK; = TKA + TKNA; = PDRBA + PDRBNA; = PDRB/POP;

Lampiran 4. Hasil Estimasi Model Transfer Fiskal dan Kemiskinan Menggunakan SAS/ETS Versi 6.12 Prosedur SYSLIN Metode 2SLS

Persamaan Pajak Daerah (PJKK) : The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: PJKK Dependent variable: PJKK PJKK Analysis of Variance Sum of Squares

Mean Square

Source

DF

Model Error C Total

2 77489174565 38744587282 97 90572739906 933739586.66 99 169021806890 Root MSE Dep Mean C.V.

30557.15279 27284.86000 111.99307

R-Square Adj R-SQ

F Value

Prob>F

41.494

0.0001

0.4611 0.4500

Parameter Estimates Variable

DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error

T for H0: Parameter=0

Prob > |T|

INTERCEP PDRBNA DDF

1 1 1

1842.207472 0.002226 9734.032084

4851.947656 0.000250 6114.901744

0.380 8.911 1.592

0.7050 0.0001 0.1147

Durbin-Watson (For Number of Obs.) 1st Order Autocorrelation

Variable Label Interc PDRBNA DDF

2.199 100 -0.101

Persamaan Retr ibusi Daerah (RETRK) : The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: RETRK Dependent variable: RETRK RETRK Analysis of Variance Source

DF

Model Error C Total

2 97 99

Sum of Squares

Mean Square

85655014930 42827507465 15134215622 156022841.46 94258198137

F Value

Prob>F

274.495

0.0001

Root MSE Dep Mean C.V.

12490.91035 21533.22000 58.00763

R-Square Adj R-SQ

0.8498 0.8467


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


INTERCEP PDRBNA DDF

1 1 1

-5858.998309 0.002326 11782

1983.340648 0.000102 2499.600994

-2.954 22.780 4.714


Prob > |T|

Variable Label

0.0039 Interc 0.0001 PDRBNA 0.0001 DDF

1.576 100 0.204

Persamaan Penerimaan Asli Daerah LainLain-lain (PADL) :

The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: PADL Dependent variable: PADL PADL Analysis of Variance Sum of Squares

Mean Square

Source

DF

Model Error C Total

2 244399859908 122199929954 97 191313118660 1972300192.4 99 434662297726 Root MSE Dep Mean C.V.

44410.58649 38095.96000 116.57558

R-Square Adj R-SQ

F Value

Prob>F

61.958

0.0001

0.5609 0.5519


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

INTERCEP PDRBNA DDF

1 1 1

-21345 0.003036 62750

7051.633459 0.000363 8887.162185

-3.027 8.363 7.061

0.0032 0.0001 0.0001


1.705 100 0.147

Variable Label Interc PDRBNA DDF

Persamaan Pengeluaran Rutin Daerah (PERTK) :

The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: PERTK Dependent variable: PERTK PERTK Analysis of Variance Sum of Squares

Mean Square

Source

DF

Model Error C Total

6 2.5053533E13 4.1755889E12 93 491939756767 5289674803.9 99 2.5517786E13 Root MSE 72730.15058 Dep Mean 489349.91000 C.V. 14.86261

R-Square Adj R-SQ

F Value

Prob>F

789.385

0.0001

0.9807 0.9795


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

INTERCEP PADK BHPJK BHBPJK DAUK PNS DDF

1 1 1 1 1 1 1

-60082 0.938524 1.299269 0.085812 0.379402 0.724085 117572

14353 0.199215 0.299178 0.039179 0.035003 0.107367 19270

-4.186 4.711 4.343 2.190 10.839 6.744 6.101

0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0310 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001


1.539 100 0.215

Persamaan Pengeluaran Pembangunan Pertanian (PEPBA) :

The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: PEPBA Dependent variable: PEPBA PEPBA Analysis of Variance Sum of

Mean

Variable Label Interc PADK BHPJK BHBPJK DAUK PNS DDF

Source

DF

Square

F Value

Prob>F

Model Error C Total

6 11346487052 1891081175.4 93 6632881260.4 71321303.875 99 17676990384

26.515

0.0001


Squares

8445.19413 11971.04000 70.54687

R-Square Adj R-SQ

0.6311 0.6073


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

INTERCEP PADK BHPJK BHBPJK DAUK AREA DDF

1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1214.458093 -0.033303 0.059957 0.030549 0.007941 0.011286 4757.709125

1594.965791 0.028533 0.038150 0.004414 0.003874 0.014136 2004.103779

0.761 -1.167 1.572 6.920 2.050 0.798 2.374

0.4483 0.2461 0.1194 0.0001 0.0432 0.4267 0.0197


Variable Label Interc PADK BHPJK BHBPJK DAUK AREA DDF

1.700 100 0.088

Persamaan Pengeluaran Pembangunan Pembangunan Non Pertanian (PEPBNA) :

The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: PEPBNA Dependent variable: PEPBNA PEPBNA Analysis of Variance Sum of Squares

Mean Square

Source

DF

Model Error C Total

6 6.3459607E12 1.0576601E12 93 407292824206 4379492733.4 99 6.8049618E12 Root MSE 66177.73593 Dep Mean 236160.14000 C.V. 28.02240

R-Square Adj R-SQ

F Value

Prob>F

241.503

0.0001

0.9397 0.9358


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

INTERCEP PADK BHPJK BHBPJK DAUK AREA DDF

1 1 1 1 1 1 1

15191 0.306028 0.623783 0.693151 0.155524 0.188256 12987

12498 0.223589 0.298951 0.034592 0.030355 0.110770 15704

1.215 1.369 2.087 20.038 5.124 1.700 0.827

0.2273 0.1744 0.0397 0.0001 0.0001 0.0926 0.4104

Variable Label Interc PADK BHPJK BHBPJK DAUK AREA DDF


1.979 100 -0.019

Persamaan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Sektor Pertanian (PDRBA):

The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: PDRBA Dependent variable: PDRBA PDRBA Analysis of Variance Sum of Squares

Mean Square

Source

DF

Model Error C Total

3 7.019248E14 2.3397493E14 96 1.2380391E14 1.289624E12 99 7.8472215E14 Root MSE1135616.14731 Dep Mean2738051.24000 C.V. 41.47534

R-Square Adj R-SQ

F Value

Prob>F

181.429

0.0001

0.8501 0.8454


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

INTERCEP TKA PEPBA DDF

1 1 1 1

164721 1.499616 13.253858 125366

196531 0.068041 11.451897 259165

0.838 22.040 1.157 0.484

0.4040 0.0001 0.2500 0.6297


Variable Label Interc TKA PEPBA DDF

1.804 100 0.094

Persamaan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Sektor Non Pertanian (PDRBNA): (PDRBNA):

The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure

Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: PDRBNA Dependent variable: PDRBNA PDRBNA Analysis of Variance Sum of Squares

Mean Square

Source

DF

Model Error C Total

3 1.4447078E16 4.8156927E15 96 1.0190717E15 1.061533E13 99 1.5494357E16 Root MSE3258117.59084 Dep Mean9244727.93000 C.V. 35.24298

R-Square Adj R-SQ

F Value

Prob>F

453.655

0.0001

0.9341 0.9321


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

INTERCEP TKNA PEPBNA DDF

1 1 1 1

357020 4.023543 7.966116 184338

518664 0.135158 1.591092 738068

0.688 29.769 5.007 0.250

0.4929 0.0001 0.0001 0.8033


Variable Label Interc TKNA PEPBNA DDF

2.112 100 -0.056

Persamaan Penyerapatan Tenaga Kerja Sektor Pertanian (TKA):

The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: TKA Dependent variable: TKA TKA Analysis of Variance Sum of Squares

Mean Square

Source

DF

Model Error C Total

3 2.8703716E14 9.5679054E13 96 4.7476587E13 494547784198 99 3.3721271E14 Root MSE 703240.91476 Dep Mean1568391.06000 C.V. 44.83837

R-Square Adj R-SQ

F Value

Prob>F

193.468

0.0001

0.8581 0.8536


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

INTERCEP

1

726936

271560

2.677

0.0087

Variable Label Interc

PDRBA UPHA DDF

1 1 1

0.581530 -6.009317 -154698

0.027774 1.935457 140815

20.938 -3.105 -1.099


0.0001 0.0025 0.2747

PDRBA UPHA DDF

1.977 100 0.011

Persamaan Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Sektor Non Pertanian (TKNA):

The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: TKNA Dependent variable: TKNA TKNA Analysis of Variance Sum of Squares

Mean Square

Source

DF

Model Error C Total

3 7.156112E14 2.3853707E14 96 6.2849998E13 654687479554 99 7.8055276E14 Root MSE 809127.60400 Dep Mean1718450.56000 C.V. 47.08472

R-Square Adj R-SQ

F Value

Prob>F

364.353

0.0001

0.9193 0.9167


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

INTERCEP PDRBNA UPHR DDF

1 1 1 1

706311 0.211284 -4.108443 -266362

341884 0.007116 1.655460 174851

2.066 29.693 -2.482 -1.523

0.0415 0.0001 0.0148 0.1310


2.074 100 -0.037

Variable Label Interc PDRBNA UPHR DDF

Persamaan Pengeluaran Pengeluaran Rumahtangga Per Kapita Perdesaan (RPCE):

The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: RPCE Dependent variable: RPCE RPCE Analysis of Variance Source

DF

Sum of Squares

Mean Square

F Value

Prob>F

Model Error C Total

5 94 99

0.20621 0.16861 0.37660

0.04124 0.00179

22.992

0.0001


0.04235 0.17413 24.32175

R-Square Adj R-SQ

0.5502 0.5262


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

INTERCEP YCAP AMH UMPR INFL DDF

1 1 1 1 1 1

-0.065352 0.006982 0.001488 0.000000702 0.000278 0.057388

0.056419 0.005893 0.000615 0.000000231 0.001410 0.012403

-1.158 1.185 2.418 3.036 0.197 4.627

0.2497 0.2390 0.0175 0.0031 0.8439 0.0001


Variable Label Interc YCAP AMH UMPR INFL DDF

1.325 100 0.283

Persamaan Pengeluaran Rumahtangga Per Kapita Perkotaan (UPCE):

The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: UPCE Dependent variable: UPCE UPCE Analysis of Variance Source

DF

Sum of Squares

Mean Square

F Value

Prob>F

Model Error C Total

5 94 99

0.05091 0.06506 0.11706

0.01018 0.00069

14.711

0.0001

Root MSE Dep Mean

0.02631 0.14051

R-Square Adj R-SQ

0.4390 0.4091

C.V.

18.72264 Parameter Estimates

Variable

DF

Parameter Estimate

INTERCEP YCAP AMH UMPR INFL DDF

1 1 1 1 1 1

0.031281 0.010473 0.001260 0.000000216 -0.005789 0.023984

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

0.035046 0.003660 0.000382 0.000000144 0.000876 0.007704

0.893 2.861 3.295 1.503 -6.611 3.113

0.3744 0.0052 0.0014 0.1361 0.0001 0.0025


Variable Label Interc YCAP AMH UMPR INFL DDF

1.684 100 0.153

Persamaan Indeks Gini Perdesaan (RGINI):

The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: RGINI Dependent variable: RGINI RGINI Analysis of Variance Source

DF

Sum of Squares

Mean Square

F Value

Prob>F

Model Error C Total

6 93 99

0.00951 0.03578 0.04588

0.00159 0.00038

4.121

0.0010


0.01961 0.24050 8.15538

R-Square Adj R-SQ

0.2100 0.1591


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

INTERCEP YCAP TKASH URBP AMH RURUN DDF

1 1 1 1 1 1 1

0.348908 0.006001 -0.000263 -0.000355 -0.001088 0.001070 -0.000812

0.035438 0.002656 0.000252 0.000271 0.000318 0.001239 0.005023

9.846 2.260 -1.041 -1.311 -3.423 0.864 -0.162

0.0001 0.0262 0.3004 0.1932 0.0009 0.3900 0.8720


1.568 100 0.189

Variable Label Interc YCAP TKASH URBP AMH RURUN DDF

Persamaan Indeks Gini Perkotaan (UGINI):

The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: UGINI Dependent variable: UGINI UGINI Analysis of Variance Source

DF

Sum of Squares

Mean Square

F Value

Prob>F

Model Error C Total

6 93 99

0.02413 0.06125 0.08538

0.00402 0.00066

6.106

0.0001


0.02566 0.28680 8.94805

R-Square Adj R-SQ

0.2826 0.2363


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

INTERCEP YCAP TKASH URBP AMH URBUN DDF

1 1 1 1 1 1 1

0.481338 0.000012464 -0.000892 0.000068640 -0.001762 0.000541 0.006923

0.046729 0.003429 0.000368 0.000362 0.000386 0.000880 0.005558

10.301 0.004 -2.427 0.189 -4.562 0.615 1.246

0.0001 0.9971 0.0172 0.8502 0.0001 0.5402 0.2160


1.793 100 0.081

Persamaan Tingkat Kemiskinan Perdesaan (RHCI): (RHCI):

The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: RHCI Dependent variable: RHCI RHCI Analysis of Variance Sum of

Mean

Variable Label Interc YCAP TKASH URBP AMH URBUN DDF

Source

DF

Squares

Square

F Value

Prob>F

Model Error C Total

4 95 99

8807.06560 12107.72264 22325.20416

2201.76640 127.44971

17.276

0.0001


11.28936 23.24903 48.55842

R-Square Adj R-SQ

0.4211 0.3967


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

INTERCEP RPCE RGINI RPL DDF

1 1 1 1 1

-40.417661 -216.951396 310.403438 0.729623 8.717601

18.129851 33.944211 75.322494 0.179322 3.532264

-2.229 -6.391 4.121 4.069 2.468

0.0281 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0154


Variable Label Interc RPCE RGINI RPL DDF

1.432 100 0.241

Persamaan Indeks Kedalaman Kemiskinan Perdesaan Perdesaan (RPGI): The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: RPGI Dependent variable: RPGI RPGI Analysis of Variance Source

DF

Sum of Squares

Mean Square

F Value

Prob>F

Model Error C Total

4 95 99

979.78385 1083.28052 2109.24127

244.94596 11.40295

21.481

0.0001


3.37683 4.78991 70.49873

R-Square Adj R-SQ

0.4749 0.4528


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|


1 1 1 1 1

-20.861998 -68.957637 112.812218 0.291401 3.136890

5.422924 10.153247 22.530142 0.053638 1.056556

-3.847 -6.792 5.007 5.433 2.969

0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0038


1.492 100 0.212

Variable Label Interc RPCE RGINI RPL DDF

Persamaan Indeks Keparahan Kemiskinan Kemiskinan Perdesaan (RPSI): The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: RPSI Dependent variable: RPSI RPSI Analysis of Variance Source

DF

Sum of Squares

Mean Square

F Value

Prob>F

Model Error C Total

4 95 99

186.53006 200.61013 378.80174

46.63252 2.11169

22.083

0.0001


1.45316 1.51669 95.81154

R-Square Adj R-SQ

0.4818 0.4600


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error



1 1 1 1 1

-10.632097 -29.533894 51.713047 0.133890 1.475586

2.333670 4.369290 9.695493 0.023082 0.454672

-4.556 -6.759 5.334 5.801 3.245


1.531 100 0.195

Persamaan Tingkat Kemiskinan Perkotaan (UHCI): The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation

Prob > |T|

Variable Label

0.0001 Interc 0.0001 RPCE 0.0001 RGINI 0.0001 RPL 0.0016 DDF

Model: UHCI Dependent variable: UHCI UHCI Analysis of Variance Source

DF

Sum of Squares

Mean Square

F Value

Prob>F

Model Error C Total

4 95 99

981.40608 3885.78007 5075.21123

245.35152 40.90295

5.998

0.0002


6.39554 8.84700 72.29051

R-Square Adj R-SQ

0.2016 0.1680


DF

Parameter Estimate

INTERCEP UPCE UGINI UPL DDF

1 1 1 1 1

0.693599 -26.451185 48.213897 0.030619 -6.228351

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

10.441740 29.437800 32.919096 0.121435 1.301072

0.066 -0.899 1.465 0.252 -4.787

0.9472 0.3712 0.1463 0.8015 0.0001


Variable Label Interc UPCE UGINI UPL DDF

1.343 100 0.324

Persamaan Indeks Indeks Kedalaman Kemiskinan Perkotaan (UPGI): The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: UPGI Dependent variable: UPGI UPGI Analysis of Variance Source

DF

Sum of Squares

Mean Square

F Value

Prob>F

Model Error C Total

4 95 99

34.96288 171.22969 219.35703

8.74072 1.80242

4.849

0.0013


1.34254 1.51331 88.71557

R-Square Adj R-SQ

0.1696 0.1346


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

INTERCEP UPCE

1 1

-0.072909 -9.798456

2.191913 6.179535

-0.033 -1.586

0.9735 0.1161

Variable Label Interc UPCE

UGINI UPL DDF

1 1 1

9.445315 0.021884 -1.145072

6.910323 0.025491 0.273119

1.367 0.859 -4.193


0.1749 0.3928 0.0001

UGINI UPL DDF

1.344 100 0.325

Persamaan Persamaan Indeks Keparahan Kemiskinan Perkotaan (UPSI): The SAS System SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model: UPSI Dependent variable: UPSI UPSI Analysis of Variance Source

DF

Sum of Squares

Mean Square

F Value

Prob>F

Model Error C Total

4 95 99

1.47048 17.18196 20.14161

0.36762 0.18086

2.033

0.0960


0.42528 0.49544 85.83876

R-Square Adj R-SQ

0.0788 0.0400


DF

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error


Prob > |T|

INTERCEP UPCE UGINI UPL DDF

1 1 1 1 1

0.415235 -4.840247 1.734368 0.008658 -0.128244

0.694337 1.957504 2.188997 0.008075 0.086516

0.598 -2.473 0.792 1.072 -1.482

0.5512 0.0152 0.4302 0.2864 0.1416

Durbin-Watson 1.249 (For Number of Obs.) 100 1st Order Autocorrelation

Variable Label Interc UPCE UGINI UPL DDF

0.335

Lampira n 5. Program Komputer Validasi Model Transfer Fiskal dan Kemiskinan Menggunakan SAS/ETS Versi 6.12 Prosedur SIMNLIN Metode Newton

OPTION NODATE NONUMBER; DATA FISKAL; SET DFKBI DFKTI; PADK = PJKK + RETRK + PADL; TPDK = PADK + BHPJK + BHBPJK + DAUK +PDKL; PEPBK = PEPBA + PEPBNA; TPEK = PERTK + PEPBK; TKT = TKA + TKNA; PDRB = PDRBA + PDRBNA; TKASH = (TKA/TKT)*100; YCAP = PDRB/POP; RUN; PROC SIMNLIN DATA=FISKAL SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK PDRBA PDRBNA PDRB YCAP TKA TKNA TKT RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI; INSTRUMENTS URBP PNS A REA UPHA UPHR UMPR POP TKASH BHPJK BHBPJK DAUK PDKL AMH RPL UPL RURUN URBUN INFL DDF; Parm a0 1842.207472 a1 0.002226 a2 9734.032084 b0 -5858.998309 b1 0.002326 b2 11782 c0 -21345 c1 0.003036 c2 62750 d0 -60082 d1 0.938524 d2 1.299269 d3 0.085812 d4 0.379402 d5 0.724085 d6 117572 e0 1214.458093 e1 -0.033303 e2 0.059957 e3 0.030549 e4 0.007941 e5 0.011286 e6 4757.709125 f0 15191 f1 0.306028 f2 0.623783 f3 0.693151 f4 0.155524 f5 0.188256 f6 0.188256 g0 164721 g1 1.499616 g2 13.253858 g3 125366 h0 357020 h1 4.023543 h 2 7.966116 h3 184338 i0 726936 i1 0.581530 i2 -6.009317 i3 -154698 j0 706311 j1 0.211284 j2 -4.108443 j3 -266362 k0 -0.065352 k1 0.006982 k2 0.001488 k3 0.000000702 k4 0.000278 k5 0.057388 l0 0.031281 l1 0.010473 l2 0.001260 l3 0.000000216 l4 -0.005789 l5 0.023984 m0 0.348908 m1 0.006001 m2 -0.000263 m3 -0.000355 m4 -0.001088 m5 0.001070 m6 -0.000812 n 0 0.481338 n1 0.000012464 n2 -0.000892 n3 0.000068640 n4 -0.001762 n5 0.000541 n6 0.006923 o0 -45.169944 o1 -253.018115 o2 306.463607 o3 0.788444 o4 5.821000 o5 -0.044200 p0 -22.650797 p1 -81.620429 p2 111.003775 p3 0.311766 p4 2.198002 p5 -0.248015 q0 -11.480562 q1 -35.065234 q2 50.68598 q3 0.142627 q4 1.046162 q5 -0.175139 r0 4.685812 r1 -60.185741 r2 58.432252 r3 0.154513 r4 -4.516275 r5 2.627834 s0 0.773742 s1 -16.107637 s2 11.130973 s3 0.045167 s4 -0.871469 s5 0.566193 t0 0.843661 t1 -7.348768 t2 2.197669 t3 0.018017 t4 -0.371109 t5 0.602584;

PJKK = a0 + a1*PDRBNA + a2*DDF; RETRK = b0 + b1*PDRBNA + b2*DDF; PADL = c0 + c1*PDRBNA + c2*DDF; PERTK = d0 + d1*PADK + d2*BHPJK + d3*BHBPJK + d4*DAUK + d5*PNS + d6*DDF; PEPBA = e0 + e1*PADK + e2* BHPJK + e3*BHBPJK + e4*DAUK + e5*AREA + e6*DDF; PEPBNA = f0 + f1*PADK + f2*BHPJK + f3*BHBPJK + f4*DAUK + f5*AREA + f6*DDF; PDRBA = g0 + g1*TKA + g2*PEPBA + g3*DDF; PDRBNA = h0 + h1*TKNA + h2*PEPBNA + h3*DDF; TKA = i0 + i1*PDRBA + i2*UPHA + i3*DDF; TKNA = j0 + j1*PDRBNA + j2*UPHR + j3*DDF; RPCE = k0 + k1*YCAP + k2*AMH + k3*UMPR + k4*INFL + k5*DDF; UPCE = l0 + l1*YCAP + l2*AMH + l3*UMPR + l4*INFL + l5*DDF; RGINI = m0 + m1*YCAP + m2*(TKA/TKT)*100 + m3*URBP + m4*AMH + m5*RURUN + m6*DDF; UGINI = n0 + n1*YCAP + n2*(TKA/TKT)*100 + n3*URBP + n4*AMH + n5*URBUN + n6*DDF; RHCI = o0 + o1*RPCE + o2*RGINI + o3*RPL + o4*TTR + o5*DDF; RPGI = p0 + p1*RPCE + p2*RGINI + p3*RPL + p4*TTR + p5*DDF; RPSI = q0 + q1*RPCE + q2*RGINI + q3*RPL + q4*TTR + q5*DDF; UHCI = r0 + r1*UPCE + r2*UGINI + r3*UPL + r4*TTR + r5*DDF; UPGI = s0 + s1*UPCE + s2*UGINI + s3*UPL + s4*TTR + s5*DDF; UPSI = t0 + t1*UPCE + t2*UGINI + t3*UPL + t4*TTR + t5*DDF; PADK = PJKK + RETRK + PADL; TPDK = PADK + BHPJK + BHBPJK + DAUK +PDKL; PEPBK = PEPBA + PEPBNA; TPEK = PERTK + PEPBK; TKT = TKA + TKNA; PDRB = PDRBA + PDRBNA; YCAP = PDRB/POP; RUN;

Lampiran 6. Hasil Validasi Model Transfer Fiskal dan Kemiskinan Menggunakan SAS/ETS Versi 6.12 Prosedur SIMNLIN Metode Newton

The SAS System SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables Endogenous Parameters Equations

27 27 102 27

Number of Statements

27

The SAS System SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Solution Summary Dataset Option DATA=

Dataset FISKAL

Variables Solved

27

Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 0.00005 Maximum CC 5.5742E-14 Maximum Iterations 2 Total Iterations 200 Average Iterations 2 Observations Processed Read 100 Solved 100 Variables Solved For: PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK PDRBA PDRBNA PDRB YCAP TKA TKNA TKT RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI

The SAS System SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics Actual Variable PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK

Predicted

Nobs

N

Mean

Std

Mean

Std

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

27285 21533 38096 86914 825687 489350 11971 236160 248131 737481

41319 30856 66261 121580 810891 507696 13362 262177 273485 731640

26412 20620 36902 83933 822706 486553 12071 228754 240825 727377

29868 31354 51109 109035 802209 484830 10241 255599 265378 710287

Label PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK

PDRBA PDRBNA PDRB YCAP TKA TKNA TKT RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

2738051 9244728 11982779 1.7060 1568391 1718451 3286842 0.1741 0.1405 0.2405 0.2868 23.2490 4.7899 1.5167 8.8470 1.5133 0.4954

2815402 12510342 15186749 0.9299 1845586 2807912 4564972 0.0617 0.0344 0.0215 0.0294 15.0169 4.6158 1.9561 7.1599 1.4885 0.4511

2748344 8851078 11599422 2.0477 1574376 1635277 3209652 0.1765 0.1441 0.2464 0.3011 25.3263 5.5096 1.8380 9.2270 1.5788 0.5105

2857388 13233526 14957667 3.7232 1887176 2882601 4206395 0.0484 0.0438 0.0456 0.0971 17.6769 6.0842 2.7010 4.3082 0.9347 0.3252

The SAS System SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Statistics of Fit Variable PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK PDRBA PDRBNA PDRB YCAP TKA TKNA TKT RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI

N

Mean Error

Mean % Error

Mean Abs Error

Mean Abs % Error

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

-873.1372 -913.6112 -1194 -2981 -2981 -2797 99.4921 -7406 -7306 -10104 10293 -393650 -383357 0.3417 5985 -83174 -77189 0.002392 0.003628 0.005888 0.0143 2.0772 0.7197 0.3213 0.3800 0.0654 0.0151

158.2190 47.2327 23.3064 70.6213 0.7705 2.5707 37.0114 9.5068 9.6922 3.5692 72.3081 10.4170 31.1233 31.1233 38.9756 9.8249 30.2996 6.9236 6.2413 2.7659 6.4316 64.6762 134.1215 223.0777 135.8919 368.5715 1391

21093 16494 27734 56016 56016 71197 5182 46641 48515 103053 2242751 7079830 8508470 2.3168 1405352 1712399 2685704 0.0311 0.0321 0.0307 0.0582 13.5631 4.3056 1.8559 5.6855 1.1945 0.4024

220.72645 174.84434 332.53165 161.33623 8.89347 25.15070 60.90791 27.51570 27.09659 22.21365 157.47460 174.01596 144.10640 144.10640 173.79985 260.49125 166.69987 19.53705 23.04517 12.83877 21.21253 101.41282 204.22483 346.59642 164.71576 413.33587 1582

PDRBA PDRBNA PDRB YCAP TKA TKNA TKT RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI

The SAS System SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Statistics of Fit Variable PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK PDRBA PDRBNA PDRB YCAP TKA TKNA TKT RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI

RMS Error

RMS % Error

R-Square

Label

37869 24260 44475 86976 86976 103346 8033 75527 79181 160212 2790865 10432717 11681404 3.5410 1748386 2501294 3485111 0.0417 0.0449 0.0444 0.1039 21.2087 6.8434 2.9617 8.0509 1.7495 0.5245

415.4720 277.0785 738.6713 306.8498 12.3433 54.9611 92.1456 50.2283 49.3073 49.9054 229.1968 290.0994 221.9671 221.9671 255.6113 442.8315 246.6839 27.8371 32.8254 18.7532 38.9712 234.9472 562.1823 990.8243 516.4161 2458 12456

0.1516 0.3756 0.5449 0.4831 0.9884 0.9581 0.6349 0.9162 0.9153 0.9516 0.0074 0.2975 0.4024 -13.6478 0.0935 0.1985 0.4113 0.5382 -0.7238 -3.2920 -11.6443 -1.0148 -1.2204 -1.3156 -0.2771 -0.3954 -0.3657

PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK PDRBA PDRBNA PDRB YCAP TKA TKNA TKT RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI

The SAS System SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation

Theil Forecast Error Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions Inequality Coef Variable PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK PDRBA PDRBNA PDRB YCAP TKA TKNA TKT RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI

N

MSE

Corr (R)

Bias (UM)

Reg (UR)

Dist (UD)

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

1434039028 588570710 1978012011 7564836200 7564836200 1.06803E10 64530647 5704264583 6269667848 2.5668E10 7.78893E12 1.08842E14 1.36455E14 12.53902 3.05685E12 6.25647E12 1.2146E13 0.00174 0.00202 0.00197 0.01080 449.80888 46.83262 8.77149 64.81769 3.06090 0.27507

0.467 0.693 0.739 0.718 0.994 0.979 0.797 0.958 0.957 0.976 0.511 0.670 0.697 0.315 0.557 0.610 0.684 0.736 0.357 0.300 -.073 0.166 0.205 0.224 0.073 0.001 0.108

0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.010 0.009 0.004 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.009 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.007 0.018 0.019 0.010 0.011 0.012 0.002 0.001 0.001

0.077 0.167 0.002 0.062 0.002 0.014 0.003 0.004 0.002 0.000 0.256 0.214 0.139 0.929 0.239 0.216 0.096 0.005 0.487 0.770 0.902 0.508 0.558 0.578 0.219 0.282 0.275

0.922 0.832 0.997 0.937 0.997 0.985 0.997 0.987 0.989 0.996 0.744 0.784 0.860 0.062 0.761 0.783 0.904 0.992 0.506 0.212 0.079 0.483 0.431 0.410 0.779 0.717 0.724

Var Covar (US) (UC) 0.091 0.000 0.115 0.021 0.010 0.048 0.150 0.008 0.010 0.018 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.616 0.001 0.001 0.010 0.101 0.043 0.291 0.420 0.016 0.046 0.063 0.124 0.099 0.057

0.909 0.998 0.884 0.978 0.989 0.951 0.850 0.983 0.981 0.978 1.000 0.994 0.999 0.375 0.999 0.998 0.989 0.896 0.950 0.691 0.561 0.975 0.943 0.926 0.874 0.899 0.942

U1

U

0.7675 0.6469 0.5841 0.5839 0.0753 0.1469 0.4490 0.2146 0.2150 0.1546 0.7125 0.6729 0.6057 1.8246 0.7240 0.7626 0.6216 0.2259 0.3106 0.1838 0.3604 0.7674 1.0313 1.2003 0.7088 0.8262 0.7846

0.4250 0.3239 0.3200 0.3040 0.0378 0.0744 0.2385 0.1088 0.1091 0.0781 0.3546 0.3326 0.3062 0.5736 0.3594 0.3800 0.3203 0.1135 0.1522 0.0902 0.1719 0.3627 0.4617 0.5175 0.3739 0.4429 0.4120

The SAS System SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics Relative Change Variable PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK PDRBA PDRBNA PDRB

MSE Decomposition Proportions Inequality Coef

N

MSE

Corr (R)

Bias (UM)

Reg (UR)

Dist (UD)

99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99

134.32667 12.73810 72.28498 19.88480 0.03547 0.23379 1.98196 0.40484 0.39738 0.17528 4.72715 15.17405 7.58191

0.166 0.665 0.602 0.541 0.995 0.963 0.852 0.965 0.964 0.972 0.627 0.507 0.594

0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.002 0.000

0.082 0.176 0.837 0.197 0.014 0.127 0.006 0.004 0.004 0.064 0.264 0.539 0.387

0.914 0.824 0.163 0.803 0.979 0.873 0.994 0.996 0.996 0.936 0.733 0.459 0.613

Var Covar (US) (UC) 0.273 0.000 0.509 0.002 0.004 0.052 0.042 0.005 0.006 0.019 0.011 0.120 0.051

0.722 0.999 0.491 0.998 0.989 0.948 0.958 0.995 0.994 0.981 0.986 0.878 0.948

U1

U

0.9889 0.7743 1.8713 0.8822 0.0968 0.2699 0.4888 0.2448 0.2480 0.2269 0.8601 1.1556 0.9434

0.6624 0.3841 0.5655 0.4509 0.0482 0.1311 0.2557 0.1234 0.1251 0.1118 0.4096 0.4895 0.4300

YCAP TKA TKNA TKT RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI

99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99

6.79355 5.80576 17.94376 5.27192 0.06877 0.11911 0.03410 0.14316 2.36656 13.01221 59.78162 7.53189 30.28784 1315

0.213 0.582 0.381 0.567 0.672 0.325 0.467 0.228 0.471 0.279 0.081 0.398 0.547 0.571

0.007 0.000 0.009 0.001 0.024 0.008 0.019 0.025 0.032 0.021 0.009 0.027 0.013 0.000

0.884 0.164 0.630 0.334 0.176 0.443 0.669 0.847 0.559 0.780 0.915 0.312 0.590 0.943

0.109 0.836 0.361 0.665 0.800 0.549 0.312 0.128 0.409 0.200 0.076 0.660 0.397 0.057

0.455 0.004 0.153 0.022 0.001 0.019 0.232 0.406 0.132 0.300 0.494 0.001 0.183 0.715

0.538 0.996 0.838 0.977 0.975 0.973 0.749 0.570 0.835 0.679 0.497 0.972 0.804 0.285

2.8942 0.8503 1.4311 0.9530 0.8217 1.2687 1.5768 2.7176 1.3277 2.0487 3.4106 1.0971 1.2877 3.3534

0.7300 0.4363 0.5704 0.4476 0.4023 0.5797 0.5669 0.7205 0.5242 0.6484 0.7745 0.5265 0.5012 0.6959

Lampiran 7. Program Komputer Simulasi Model Transfer Fiskal dan Kemiskinan Menggunakan SAS/ETS Versi 6.12 Prosedur SIMNLIN Metode Newton

OPTION NODATE NONUMBER; DATA FISKAL; SET DFKBI DFKTI; PADK = PJKK + RETRK + PADL; TPDK = PADK + BHPJK + BHBPJK + DAUK +PDKL; PEPBK = PEPBA + PEPBNA; TPEK = PERTK + PEPBK; TKT = TKA + TKNA; PDRB = PDRBA + PDRBNA; TKASH = (TKA/TKT)*100; YCAP = PDRB/POP; Skenario Kebijakan 1 (S1) : Menaikan Bagian Bagi Hasil Pajak (BHPJK) Sebesar 10 Persen : BHPJK = 1.10*BHPJK; RUN; PROC SIMNLIN DATA=FISKAL SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK PDRBA PDRBNA PDRB YCAP TKA TKNA TKT RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI; INSTRUMENTS URBP PNS AREA UPHA UPHR UMPR POP TKASH BHPJK BHBPJK DAUK PDKL AMH RPL UPL RURUN URBUN INFL DDF; Parm a0 1842.207472 a1 0.002226 a2 9734.032084 b0 -5858.998309 b1 0.002326 b2 11782 c0 -21345 c1 0.003036 c2 62750 d0 -60082 d1 0.938524 d2 1.299269 d3 0.085812 d4 0.379402 d5 0.724085 d6 117572 e0 1214.458093 e1 -0.033303 e2 0.059957 e3 0.030549 e4 0.007941 e5 0.011286 e6 4757.709125 f0 15191 f1 0.306028 f2 0.623783 f3 0.693151 f4 0.155524 f5 0.188256 f6 0.188256 g0 164721 g1 1.499616 g2 13.253858 g3 125366 h0 357020 h1 4.023543 h2 7.966116 h3 184338 i0 726936 i1 0.581530 i2 -6.009317 i3 -154698 j0 706311 j1 0.211284 j2 -4.108443 j3 -266362 k0 -0.065352 k1 0.006982 k2 0.001488 k3 0.000000702 k4 0.000278 k5 0.057388 l0 0.031281 l1 0.010473 l2 0.001260 l3 0.000000216 l4 -0.005789 l5 0.023984 m0 0.348908 m1 0.006001 m2 -0.000263 m3 -0.000355 m4 -0.001088 m5 0.001070 m6 -0.000812 n 0 0.481338 n1 0.000012464 n2 -0.000892 n3 0.000068640 n4 -0.001762 n5 0.000541 n6 0.006923 o0 -45.169944 o1 -253.018115 o2 306.463607 o3 0.788444 o4 5.821000 o5 -0.044200 p0 -22.650797 p1 -81.620429 p2 111.003775 p3 0.311766 p4 2.198002 p5 -0.248015 q0 -11.480562 q1 -35.065234 q2 50.68598 q3 0.142627 q4 1.046162 q5 -0.175139 r0 4.685812 r1 -60.185741 r2 58.432252 r3 0.154513 r4 -4.516275 r5 2.627834 s0 0.773742 s1 -16.107637 s2 11.130973 s3 0.045167 s4 -0.871469 s5 0.566193 t0 0.843661 t1 -7.348768 t2 2.197669 t3 0.018017 t4 -0.371109 t5 0.602584;

PJKK = a0 + a1*PDRBNA + a2*DDF; RETRK = b0 + b1*PDRBNA + b2*DDF; PADL = c0 + c1*PDRBNA + c2*DDF; PERTK = d0 + d1*PADK + d2*BHPJK + d3*BHBPJK + d4*DAUK + d5*PNS + d6*DDF; PEPBA = e0 + e1*PADK + e2*BHPJK + e3*BHBPJK + e4*DAUK + e5*AREA + e6*DDF; PEPBNA = f0 + f1*PADK + f2*BHPJK + f3*BHBPJK + f4*DAUK + f5*AREA + f6*DDF; PDRBA = g0 + g1*TKA + g2*PEPBA + g3*DDF; PDRBNA = h0 + h1*TKNA + h2*PEPBNA + h3*DDF; TKA = i0 + i1*PDRBA + i2*UPHA + i3*DDF; TKNA = j0 + j1*PDRBNA + j2*UPHR + j3*DDF; RPCE = k0 + k1*YCAP + k2*AMH + k3*UMPR + k4*INFL + k5*DDF; UPCE = l0 + l1*YCAP + l2*AMH + l3*UMPR + l4* INFL + l5*DDF; RGINI = m0 + m1*YCAP + m2*(TKA/TKT)*100 + m3*URBP + m4*AMH + m5*RURUN + m6*DDF; UGINI = n0 + n1*YCAP + n2*(TKA/TKT)*100 + n3*URBP + n4*AMH + n5*URBUN + n6*DDF; RHCI = o0 + o1*RPCE + o2*RGINI + o3*RPL + o4*TTR + o5*DDF; RPGI = p0 + p1*RPCE + p2*RGINI + p3*RPL + p4*TTR + p5*DDF; RPSI = q0 + q1*RPCE + q2*RGINI + q3*RPL + q4*TTR + q5*DDF; UHCI = r0 + r1*UPCE + r2*UGINI + r3*UPL + r4*TTR + r5*DDF; UPGI = s0 + s1*UPCE + s2*UGINI + s3*UPL + s4*TTR + s5*DDF; UPSI = t0 + t1*UPCE + t2*UGINI + t3*UPL + t4*TTR + t5*DDF; PADK = PJKK + RETRK + PADL; TPDK = PADK + BHPJK + BHBPJK + DAUK +PDKL; PEPBK = PEPBA + PEPBNA; TPEK = PERTK + PEPBK; TKT = TKA + TKNA; PDRB = PDRBA + PDRBNA; YCAP = PDRB/POP; RUN;

Lampiran 8. Contoh Hasil Simulasi Skenario Kebijakan (S1) : Bagi Hasil Pajak (BHPJK) Dinaikan Sebesar 10 Persen The SAS System SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables Endogenous Parameters Equations

27 27 108 27

Number of Statements

27

The SAS System SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Solution Summary Dataset Option DATA=

Dataset FISKAL

Variables Solved

27

Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 0.00005 Maximum CC 0.00002157 Maximum Iterations 2 Total Iterations 199 Average Iterations 1.99 Observations Processed Read 100 Solved 100 Variables Solved For: PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK PDRBA PDRBNA PDRB YCAP TKA TKNA TKT RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI

The SAS System SIMNLIN Procedure Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics Actual Variable PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK PDRBA

Predicted

Nobs

N

Mean

Std

Mean

Std

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

27285 21533 38096 86914 825687 489350 11971 236160 248131 737481 2738051

41319 30856 66261 121580 810891 507696 13362 262177 273485 731640 2815402

26972 21205 37666 85842 831266 496986 12406 233487 245893 742879 2783075

30343 31852 51741 110685 810785 495560 10543 259638 269719 726114 2874974

Label PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK PDRBA

PDRBNA PDRB YCAP TKA TKNA TKT RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

9244728 11982779 1.7060 1568391 1718451 3286842 0.1741 0.1405 0.2405 0.2868 23.2490 4.7899 1.5167 8.8470 1.5133 0.4954

12510342 15186749 0.9299 1845586 2807912 4564972 0.0617 0.0344 0.0215 0.0294 15.0169 4.6158 1.9561 7.1599 1.4885 0.4511

9102625 11885700 2.1007 1594572 1688425 3282997 0.1769 0.1447 0.2484 0.3056 24.9683 5.4403 1.8198 9.6926 1.6550 0.5060

13436834 15189921 3.7426 1896485 2923543 4260249 0.0486 0.0440 0.0395 0.1190 12.1520 4.4433 2.0340 7.7811 1.5801 0.4502

PDRBNA PDRB YCAP TKA TKNA TKT RPCE UPCE RGINI UGINI RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI

Lampiran 9. Hasil Lengkap Simulasi Model Dampak Kebijakan Transfer Fiskal Terhadap Kemiskinan di Indonesia Peubah Endogen

Nilai Dasar

S1

S2

S3

S4

S5

S6

S7

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

2.12 2.84 2.07 2.27 1.04 2.14 2.78 2.07 2.10 2.13

2.30 3.08 2.25 2.47 1.04 0.51 1.07 2.25 2.19 1.07

0.56 0.74 0.54 0.60 0.91 0.64 0.32 0.54 0.53 0.61

4.42 5.92 4.32 4.74 2.08 2.66 3.84 4.32 4.29 3.20

2.68 3.58 2.61 2.87 1.95 2.79 3.10 2.61 2.64 2.74

2.86 3.83 2.79 3.07 1.96 1.16 1.39 2.79 2.72 1.68

4.98 6.66 4.86 5.34 3.00 3.30 4.17 4.86 4.83 3.81

Penerimaan Pajak Daerah Penerimaan Retribusi Penerimaan PAD lainnya Total Penerimaan Asli Daerah Total Penerimaan Daerah Pengel. Rutin Daerah Pengel. Pemb. Sektor Pertanian Pengel. Pemb.Sektor Non Pert. Pengel. Pemb. Daerah Total Pengel. Daerah

1.26 2.84 2.47 2.59

0.49 3.09 2.47 3.95

0.15 0.75 0.61 0.68

1.75 5.93 4.94 6.53

1.41 3.59 3.07 3.27

0.64 3.83 3.08 4.62

1.90 6.68 5.54 7.21

PDRB Sektor Pertanian PDRB Sektor Non Pertanian PDRB Total Pendapatan Per Kapita

1.28 3.25 2.29

0.50 3.53 2.04

0.15 0.85 0.51

1.78 6.78 4.33

1.43 4.10 2.79

0.65 4.38 2.55

1.93 7.63 4.84

Penyerapan TK. Pertanian Penyerapan TK. Non Pertanian Penyerapan TK. Total

0.34 0.62

0.06 0.14

0.57 0.97

0.28 0.49

0.40 0.69

0.62 1.11

Pengeluaran Per Kapita Rural Pengeluaran Per Kapita Urban

0.93 1.53

0.41 0.56

0.28 0.46

1.62 2.59

1.22 2.06

0.73 1.10

2.03 3.35

Indeks Gini Daerah Perdesaan Indeks Gini Daerah Perkotaan

3.06 4.82 6.41 1.62 1.87 1.72

0.96 1.55 2.09 0.44 0.32 0.04

0.96 1.51 2.00 0.51 0.60 0.57

5.06 8.00 10.67 2.63 2.90 2.49

4.13 6.50 8.66 2.19 2.54 2.37

2.02 3.23 4.32 1.01 0.99 0.67

6.58 10.39 13.85 3.45 3.88 3.43

Rural Poverty Headcount Index Rural Poverty Gap Index Rural Poverty Severity Index Urban Poverty Headcount Index Urban Poverty Gap Index Urban Poverty Severity Index

Blok Fiskal Daerah PJKK RETRK PADL PADK TPDK PERTK PEPBA PEPBNA PEPBK TPEK

26412 20620 36902 83933 822706 486553 12071 228754 240825 727377

Blok Output/PDRB PDRBA PDRBNA PDRB YCAP

2748344 8851078 11599422 2.0477

Blok Tenaga Kerja TKA TKNA TKT

1574376 1635277 3209652

Blok Pengeluaran Per Kapita RPCE UPCE

0.1765 0.1441

0.23 0.42

Blok Distribusi Pendapatan RGINI UGINI

0.2464 0.3011

Blok Kemiskinan RHCI RPGI RPSI UHCI UPGI UPSI

25.3263 5.5096 1.838 9.227 1.5788 0.5105

Keterangan : S1 : S2 : S3 : S4 :

Bagi Hasil Pajak (BHPJK) dinaikan sebesar 10 persen Bagi Hasil Bukan P ajak (BHBPJK) dinaikan sebesar 10 persen Dana Alokasi Umum (DAUK) dinaikan sebesar 1.25 persen Kombinasi Simulasi S1 dan S2

Keterangan / Definisi Peubah

S5 : Kombinasi Simulasi S1 dan S3 S6 : Kombinasi Simulasi S2 dan S3 S7 : Kombinasi Simulasi S1, S2 & S3

DAFTAR PUSTAKA. and C. T. Morris Economic Growth and Social Equity in Developing Countries. Stanford University Press, Oxford

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