MENYIKAPI KRISIS EKONOMI GLOBAL Faisal Basri 18 Februari 2009
Proyeksi pertumbuhan tahun 2009 2009 terus terkoreksi tajam Description
Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 3.8
3.9
3.0
2.2
0.5
-United States
0.6
0.8
0.1
-0.7
-1.6
-Euro Area
1.2
1.2
0.2
-0.5
-2.0
-Japan
1.5
1.5
0.5
-0.2
-2.6
-Developing economies
6.6
6.7
6.1
5.1
3.3
-China
9.5
9.8
9.3
8.5
6.7
-Asean-5 Asean 5
6.0
5.6
5.5
4.5
2.7
5.8
6.0
4.1
2.0
-2.8
World GDP growth, %
World trade growth, %
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues.
Industrial production
Pertumbuhan industri menengah dan besar di Indonesia pada triwulan IV dibandingkan d dengan ttriwulan i l III tahun t h 2008 adalah d l h -3,4 34 persen (Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik, 2 Februari 2009).
Source: Economist, January 17th, 2009: 11-12.
Oil prices dropped to below $40 a barrel Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) March, 2009 2:44 p.m. EDT
US$34.80 =
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118 j by y annual income within G-7 countries = US$134 $ Adjusted Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145 Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150 •
Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.
Oil prices and stock market
(at close) =
7,552.60
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Bagian I Pusat Gempa dan Kemakmuran Semu
The end of the affair … U.S.A.: a nation of borrowers and spenders, not savers Personal savings as a percentage of dipsosable income: 1997 = 8.7% 2007 = 0.6% 0 6%
Over-the-counter derivatives: BIS-data (billions US dollars) D E R IV A T IV E S T O T A L 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
OTC credit default swaps (BIS data) (billions US dollars) CDS 6 0 ,0 0 0
5 0 ,0 0 0
Enormous increase
4 0 ,0 0 0
3 0 ,0 0 0
2 0 ,0 0 0
No data available
1 0 ,0 0 0
0 98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Widening gap: Forex trading & merchandise trade
Alternative attractions
THREE BEARS: the past century’s worst market slumps
Source: Wall Sreet Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122359593027021243.html.
… Recession is coming ¾ ¾
¾
¾ ¾
A Record Decline in October’s Retail Sales in the last 16 years. Th consumer price The i iindex d fell f ll 11.77 percentt iin November, the steepest monthly drop since the government began tracking prices in 1947 (The New York Times, December 16, 2008). Downturn Drags More Consumers Into Bankruptcy—The economy’s deep troubles are ppushingg a ggrowingg number of alreadyy struggling gg g consumers into bankruptcy .., often with far more debt than those who filed in previous downturns. Jobless claim hit 7-year high Tech Companies, Long Insulated, Now Feel Slump—In the span of just a few weeks, orders for both business and consumer tech products have collapsed collapsed, and technology companies have begun laying off workers (nytimes.com, November 15, 2008).
Magnitude kian menggelembung “Bailout Plan: $2.5 Trillion and a Strong U.S. U S Hand” Hand NYTimes, Published: February 10, 2009
The White House plan to rescue the nation’s financial system ... is far bigger than anyone predicted and system, envisions a far greater government role in markets and banks than at any time since the 1930s. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/11/business/economy/11bailout.html?_r=1&8au&emc=au
“To date, the U.S. government has committed, on behalf of taxpayers, more than $7 trillion of capital injections and guarantees to financial st tut o s institutions.” Source: Wall Sreet Journal, February 12, 2009 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123436943967173465.html, downloaded on February 12, 2009.
Off the deep end Total annual deficit or surplus as a share of GDP
Source: Wall Street Journal http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123440436240475615.html, downloaded on February 12, 2009.
Deepening pain: job losses pile up U.S. Economy Shed 598,000 Jobs in January 2009
Source: Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123392627601156735.html?mod=articleoutset-box), downloaded on February 07, 2009.
Kepercayaan konsumen AS turun tajam US- Indeks Kepercayaan Konsumen
120
100
80
60
40
20 2005
2006
2007
2008
Indeks kepercayaan konsumen adalah salah leading economic indicator bagi perekonomian. Meskipun di AS membaik b ik pada d bulan b l November 2008, namun setelah itu IKK masuk k llagii k ke tren yang menurun. Source: Danareksa Research Institute, Januari 2009. 2009 dan BPS, BPS Februari 2009
U.S. Stock market lost
Source: Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122346026975114825.html (October 10, 2008, 1:00 p.m.
Bailout plan
Bailout Fails to Stem Global Stock Slump
Source: Ihttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/business/18markets.html?_r=1&8au&emc=au&oref=slogin
Lebih ideologis
February 16, 2009
COVER STORY
We Are All Socialists Now
The financial crisis is spreading rapidly .. .. to the previously resilient developing world: Global trade is forecast to shrink in 2009 for the first time since 1982. Foreign investment and short-term credit are drying up. Developing country exports are falling; large amounts of capital have been withdrawn. Many M developing d l i countries t i face f sharply h l tighter ti ht credit dit andd higher interest rates. GDP growth in developing countries is expected to fall to 4.5% from a projected 6.4%. Private capital flows are expected to drop from $1 trillion in 2007 to $530 billion in 2009. 2009 (World Bank, November 2008)
Stimulus jangan sampai garami laut How much help government think the economy needs, then add 50 percent. It's much better, in a depressed economy, to err on the side of too much stimulus than on the side of too little. --Paul Krugman, November 2008
All out plan by other countries ¾ China pledges $586 bil. (15% of GDP) to offset slowing growth (economic stimulus plan) ¾ Other fiscal measures in East Asia since Sept. Sept 2008: Malaysia $2 bil. bil (1% of GDP) Thailand $2.86 bil. (1% of GDP) Korea $11 bil. (1% of GDP)
¾ EU got together to support their banking systems with a coordinated €1.5 trillion bailout.
China: Program details
Road and railroad construction Low-income housing Rural infrastructure Water Electricity Transportation Environment Technological innovation Earthquake reconstruction Reform of VAT Establishment of social safety net
Goncangan dahsyat February 10, 2009
’This is the worst recession for over 100 years' By Nigel Morris, Deputy Political Editor, and Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor
Britain is facing its worst financial crisis for more than a century, century surpassing even the Great Depression of the 1930s, one of Gordon Brown's most senior ministers and confidants has admitted. In an extraordinary d admission d about b the h severity off the h economic downturn, Ed Balls even predicted that its effects would still be felt 15 years from now.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long Ray Dalio, Chief Investment Officer, Bridgewater Associates
Pemulihan butuh waktu lama? “Consensus melts as the crisis heats up”
FT.com. FT com Published: January 27 2009 18:12 | Last updated: January 27 2009 18:12 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6bde8788-ec75-11dd-a5340000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=70261da4-eb4b-11dd-bb6e0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
“THE RETURN OF ECONOMIC NATIONALISM”
fromThe Economist print edition Feb 5th 2009 http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory .cfm?story_id=13061443&fsrc=nwlgafree&sourc e=most_commented
“Buy Buy American American” clauses
“AS TAK MAU BERSIHKAN CEPATCEPAT TOXIC ASSETS: There is no lack of capital in America today, or in the world beyond it. Mr. Geithner can make it flow again, if he only looks to Seoul's example for how to do it. Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123436943967173465.html#printMode
Bagian II Perekonomian k Indonesia
Transmission of global economic and financial crisis to Indonesia Balance of Payments Problems
Global economic slow down (shrinking global trade)) g Declining trend of commodity prices Financial distress and global credit crunch Classical problem of Emerging Markets: Slower global growth Ædeclining commodity prices Æexport slow down Æ deteriorating CA balance Æ Depreciating currency
Gl b l Economic Global E i & Financial Crisis
Indonesia Economy
Financial Markets Channels
Collapse of financial instit tions in institutions the US
Credit crunch, Bail out and liq idit liquidity drying up
Risk aversion capital outflows from Emerging Markets
Financing and Liquidity Problems in Emerging Mkt
Financial Sector Instabilit in Instability Emerging Mkt
Sumber daya tahan ¾ Perekonomian Indonesia dan sektor keuangannya tak terkait erat dengan sektor finansial AS. AS ¾ Harga minyak turun ke level di bawah $40 per barrel. ¾ Current account masih surplus, surplus walau menyusut. menyusut ¾ Peranan ekspor di dalam PDB relatif kecil. ¾ Porsi ekspor Indonesia ke AS, AS Eropa Eropa, dan Jepang sudah menunjukkan penurunan; bergeser ke EM dan Asean. ¾ Sektor pperbankan sudah cukupp terkonsolidasi. Indikator kesehatan perbankan (ROA, ROE, NIM, CAR) di atas rata-rata negara tetangga, bahkan bisa dikatakan yang terbaik, kecuali LDR. (warning: bank BUMN!!!) ¾ Ketahanan pangan terjaga.
East Asia entered the current crisis better prepared than it did the 1997 crisis (in percent of GDP unless indicated otherwise)
Source: The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Update, East Asia: Navigating the Perfect Storm, December 2008.
Countries more dependent on exports will likely be more vulnerable to the slowdown
Source: The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Update, East Asia: Navigating the Perfect Storm, December 2008.
Economic temperature cooler .. Inflation returns 2 digit, y-o-y, % 18
December 2008 closed the year with a monthly drop (deflation) of 0.04% in consumer prices, and continued in Jan 2009 with deflation of 0.07%.
16 14 10
8.81
8
9.17
7.20
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
v No
Ju l
r Ma
v No
Ju l
Ma
v No
Ju l
r Ma
v No
Ju l
r
r
v No
2004
r
5.27
4.60 Ma
v No
r Ma
v No
Ju l
4
Ju l
5.79
Ju l
6
Source: BPS.
14 55 14.55
10.60
Ma
12
18 38 18.38
2008
BI Rate bisa turun lagi? lagi? 13,0 12,5 12,0 11,5 11,0 10,5 10,0 9 5 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 , 7,5
Source: Bank Indonesia.
N ov
03 -J ul
06 -M ar
06 -N op
05 -J ul
06 -M ar
07 -N op
06 -J ul
07 -M ar
01 -N op
05 -J ul
7,0
Apakah landasan ekonomi kita sangat kokoh? Indonesia Korban Tidak Bersalah (Kompas Kamis, (Kompas, Kamis 20 November 2008)
Indonesia berada di urutan teratas dalam daftar korban krisis yang tidak bersalah dalam gejolak ekonomi dunia saat ini. ini Oleh karena itu, Indonesia meminta perhatian dunia untuk mendapat prioritas pertama sebagai negara yang perlu diselamatkan dari kemungkinan terburuk akibat krisis. ”Dalam krisis ini, negara yang bagus, mengelola keuangannya dengan baik, dan memiliki institusi ekonomi yang sehat serta kredibel tetap bisa terkena dampak negatif. Itu tidak fair (adil). Ini yang disebut innocent victim (korban yang tidak bersalah),” ujar Menteri Keuangan sekaligus Pelaksana Jabatan Menko Perekonomian Sri Mulyani Indrawati seusai Rapat Koordinasi Terbatas dengan Gubernur Bank Indonesia Boediono, Rabu (19/11) di Jakarta.
Siapkan kondisi terburuk ¾ Krisis finansial global menyadarkan kita tentang rapuhnya tatanan yang ada Æ muncul tuntutan untuk penataan ulang l sistem i fifinansial i l global l b l ddan iinteraksi k i hubungan ekonomi antarbangsa. ¾ P Perekonomian k i kit kita jjustru t cenderung d mengarahh kke pola l AS yang rapuh itu. Tentu konsekuensinya bisa lebih parah karena kita tak punya kemewahan untuk menjawab j b masalah l h sebagaimana b i yg dialami di l i AS AS. ¾ Perubahan pola pikir yang mendasar agar landasan perekonomian nasional lebih kokoh: Mencapai tujuan secara efektif Lebih L bih stabil t bil atau t volatilitas l tilit bberkurang k Memenuhi rasa keadilan.
Persoalan likuiditas ¾ Sekalipun BI rate sudah urun, bunga deposito d pinjaman dan i j ttakk akan k tturun segera jik jika persoalan likuiditas tak membaik. ¾ Penyebab P b b lik likuiditas idit ketat k t t di Indonesia: I d i Pemerintah tarik dana banyak, tapi spending lamban. Intervensi BI untuk jaga Rupiah Jan-Sep US$16 miliar. Pertumbuhan kredit pada Agustus 08 naik tinggi ke 35% y-o-y (atau 20% ytd); sedangkan pertumbuhan dana masyarakat turun ke 9,6% 9 6% yy-o-y o y (atau 11,0% 0% ytd).
Pemerintah menguras likuiditas Rp Trn
percent
250
14 Rekening Pem erintah di BI
12
Inter Bank Rate
200
BI Rate
10
150
8 6
100
4 50 2 0
0 2003
2004
2005
Source: Danareksa Research Institute, January 2009.
2006
2007
2008
8.500 Jan-221
04-No op
19-Ag gust
06-Ju un
26-Maar
08-Jaan
11-Okkt
01-Ag gust
22-Meei
07-Maar
22-Dees
05-Okkt
24-Ju ul
11-Meei
27-Feeb
15-Dees
29-Seep
19-Ju ul
09-Meei
22-Feeb
09-Dees
23-Seep
09-Ju ul
08-Ap pr
Heart beat has been increasing … (Rupiah per US$)
9.000
9.500
10.000
10.500
11.000
11.500
000 12.000
12.500 Source: Bank Indonesia
Tapi, likuiditas menuju normal .. ¾ Bank Indonesia melakukan beberapa policy measures antara t llain i melalui l l i Penyesuaian P i Gi Giro Wajib Minimum Bank menambah likuiditas cukup k bberarti. ti ¾ Sejak j September p 2008,, ppertumbuhan DPK melampaui pertumbuhan kredit. ¾ Masalah kunci terletak pada aliran dari likuiditas Æ pemecahan paling efektif adalah dengan penjaminan (penuh?) pinjaman antarbank.
1Ja 2F W e 3M W a 4A W p 1Jn W 2W Jl 3 W -Ag 4S W ep 1N W ov 2D W ec 3J W an 4Fe W b 1A W pr 2M W ay 3Ju W n 4W Ju l 1Se W p 2O W ct 3No W 4- v D W ec 231 A p -A r gu 31 s t -J a 29 n 31 Ju -A n gu 05 s t -O 15 kt -N 19 o p -D e 31 s -J 06 an -M a 15 r -A 23 p r -M 30 ei 07 - Ju -A n gu 15 s t -S e 24 p -O kt W
W
Foreign reserves decreased by $6.5 bil. bil. (US$ million)
60000,00
SBY era
55000,00
50000,00
45000,00
40000,00
35000 00 35000,00
30000,00
Source: Bank Indonesia.
External vulnerability: regional comparison – economic perception Too big, too high
Bloomberg commodity price index
Should be here
Source: CITI’s Asia Macro Views, “Measuring Asia’s External Vulnerability,” 8 October 2008
JSX index dropped significantly
Business Week, 14-21 Maret 2007, hal.18. 2.900 2.800
(Jakarta composite index)
2.700 2.600 2.500 2.400 2.300 2.200 2.100 2.000 1.900 1.800 1.700 1 600 1.600 1.500 1.400 1.300 1.200 1.100 1.000 900
Dec-16
16-Okt
08-Agust
10-Jun
09-Apr
04-Feb
26-Nop
24-Sep
25-Jul
25-Mei
23-Mar
23-Jan
21-Nop
15-Sep
14-Jul
15-Mei
10-Mar
09-Jan
09-Nop
05-Sep
05-Jul
04-Mei
02-Mar
28-Des
22-Okt
800
Kunci penyelesaian
¾ ¾ ¾ ¾
Bursa masih tersandera oleh saham-saham Bakrie Group. T kk ttransparansii dan Tegakkan d kredibilitas k dibilit bbursa. Lindungi pemegang saham minoritas. P lihk bursa Pulihkan b sbg b alternatif lt tif iinvestasi t i Æ bisa bi kkurangii tekanan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah
Sekarang Bakrie, lalu Bukaka dan Bosowa… Wapres: Kelangsungan Hidup Bakrie Perlu j g Dijaga Kompas.com, Jumat, 14 November 2008 | 13:35 WIB
"Pemerintah berkewajiban menjaga k l kelangsungan hid hidup pengusaha h nasional. i l Bukan B k hanya Bakrie, tetapi siapa saja supaya usahanya tetap berjalan," ujar Wapres dalam jumpa ju pa pe pers s usa usai shalat s a at Jumat Ju at di d Istana sta a Wapres, ap es, Jakarta, (14/11). Dengan pemikiran seperti itu, pembelaan pemerintah kepada Bakrie masih dalam kategori wajar. Pemerintah sebelumnya juga membela pengusaha lain seperti Astra, Danamon, BCA, sejumlah bank lain, dan sejumlah konglomerat. "Masakan membantu Bakrie tidak boleh," ujarnya. http://www.kompas.com/read/xml/2008/11/14/13352853/Wapres.Kelangsungan.Hidup.Bakrie.Perlu.Dijaga
Indonesia: direct investment Year
Abroad
In Indonesia
Net
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐3,408 ‐3,065 3 065 ‐2,703 ‐4,790 ‐3,640
4,677 4 677 ‐241 ‐1,865 ‐4,551 ‐2,977 145 ‐597 1,896 8 336 8,336 4,914 6,928 5,704
4,677 4 677 ‐241 ‐1,865 ‐4,551 ‐2,977 145 ‐597 ‐1,512 5 271 5,271 2,211 2,139 2,064
* First semester Source: Bank Indonesia.
The role of FDI in Asia & South America, 2006 FDI flows to GFCF Country Venezuela Bangladesh Sri Lanka Indonesia China India Argentina Taiwan Brazil Vietnam Philippines Thailand Peru Bolivia Malaysia Pakistan Ecuador Chile Cambodia Singapore Asia South America
FDI stocks to GDP
Percent -2.1 3.9 6.2 6.4 8.0 8.7 9.6 10.3 10.5 12.5 14.1 16.5 18.9 19.5 20.1 24.1 24.8 28.3 38.9 79.5 12.9 13.1
Country Indonesia India Bangladesh Sri Lanka China Pakistan Taiwan Philippines Peru Brazil Venezuela Argentina Thailand Malaysia Ecuador Cambodia Bolivia Vietnam Chile S Singapore Asia South America
Percent 5.2 5.7 6.3 10.9 11.1 11.4 14.2 14.6 20.7 20.8 25.0 27.4 33.0 36.0 39.9 41.6 44.6 54.8 55.4 1 90 159.0 24.9 26.0
Notes: FDI = Foreign Direct Investment (inward); GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation; GDP = Gross Domestic Product. Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.
Balance of payments 2007 2008* Q1‐08 Q2‐08 Q3‐08 I. CURRENT ACCOUNT
10,401
796
2,601
‐1,241
‐564
32,754
18,759
7,536
5,443
5,780
1. Exports, f.o.b.
118,014
109,837
34,412
37,345
38,080
2. Imports, f.o.b.
‐85,260
‐91,077
‐26,876
‐31,902
‐32,299
B. Services, net
‐11,797
‐10,310
‐3,173
‐3,564
‐3,573
C. Income, net
‐15,524
‐11,740
‐3,120
‐4,463
‐4,157
4,968
4,086
1,358
1,343
1,385
3,322
1,485
‐1,623
2,599
509
546
325
52
73
200
2,776
1,161
‐1,674
2,526
309
1. Direct investment
2,139
‐506
‐633
40
87
2. Portfolio investment
5,523
6,173
1,923
4,308
‐58
3. Other investment
‐4,885
‐4,506
‐2,964
‐1,822
280
III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS
‐1,008
‐13
54
‐33
‐34
‐12,715
‐2,267
‐1,032
‐1,324
89
A. Goods, net (Trade Balance)
D. Current Transfers, net II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT A. Capital Account B. Financial Account
IV. RESERVES &RELATED ITEMS * January-September. Source: Bank Indonesia.
Indonesia’s post post--crisis journey 5.2
4.7
7
6.5
6.6
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, % 5 3 1
08
Q3 -
08
Q1 -
07
Q3 -
07
Q1 -
06
Q3 -
06
05
Q1 -
Q3 -
05
Q1 -
04
Q3 -
04
Q1 -
03
03
Q3 -
Q1 -
02
Q3 -
02
Q1 -
01
Q3 -
01
Q1 -
00
00
Q3 -
Q1 -
99
Q3 -
99
98
Q1 -
-3
Q3 -
Q1 -
98
-11 -5 -7
Gus Dur: “Erratic/shaky”
-9 -11
Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration
-13 -15
SBY: Throws away Momentum and then made Momentum, correction
-17 17 -19 -21
Crisis peak
Source: BPS.
Low quality — Sectoral growth rate (2000 base year year, yearyear-on on--year growth rate rate, %) 2006 2007 Tradable
2008 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08
3.7
3.8
3.3
3.4
3.2
3.2
2.6
Agriculture
3.0
3.5
4.8
6.0
4.6
2.4
4.7
Mining & Quarrying
2.2
2.0
0.5
-2.3 2.3
-0.9 0.9
1.6
2.1
Manufacturing
4.6
4.7
3.7
4.3
4.1
4.3
1.8
7.4
9.0
9.2
9.5
10.1
9.5
8.1
Electricity, Gas & Water
5.9
10.4
10.9
12.1
11.2
10.6
9.3
Construction
9.0
8.6
7.3
8.3
8.0
7.5
5.7
Trade,, Hotel & Rest.
6.1
8.5
7.2
7.2
7.9
7.6
5.6
Transport & Comm.
13.6
14.4
16.7
19.7
19.6
17.1
15.8
Finance
5.7
8.0
8.2
8.3
8.7
8.5
7.4
S i Services
62 6.2
66 6.6
64 6.4
57 5.7
65 6.5
67 6.7
60 6.0
5.5
6.3
6.1
6.3
6.4
6.1
5.2
Non-Tradable
GDP Source: BPS.
Low quality growth, 2000 2000--2008 (%) 10
8
6
4
2 2000
2001
2002
2003
Tradable
* Jan-Sep (until 3rd quarter). Source: BPS.
2004
2005
2006
Non-tradable
GDP
2007
2008
Foreign merchandise trade: price effects Price increases dominated of the growth in non-oil exports. Billion US$ Growth (yoy) Description 2005 Total export
2006
2007
2008
2006 2007
2008
85.7 100.8 114.1
136.8
17.7
13.1
19.9
Non-oil and gas
66.4
79.6
92.0
107.8
19.8
15.5
78.8
Oil and gas
19.2
21.2
22.1
29.0
10.3
4.1
21.2
Total import*
57.7
61.1
74.5
105.1
5.8
21.9
41.1
Non-oil and gas
40.2
42.1
52.5
74.8
4.6
24.8
42.4
Oil and gas
17 5 17.5
19 0 19.0
21 9 21.9
30 3 30.3
86 8.6
15 5 15.5
38 0 38.0
* Excl free trade zones. Source: BPS.
Trade balance of oil and oil products 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Exports
5,228
5,621
6,241
8,146
8,169
9,226
12,419
Imports
3,217
3,928
5,831
6,797
7,853
9,057
10,044
(X - M)
2,011
1,694
410
1,349
316
169
2,375
Exports
1 308 1,308
1 548 1,548
1 654 1,654
1 932 1,932
2 844 2,844
2 879 2,879
3 379 3,379
Imports
3,309
3,583
5,892
10,646
11,080
12,787
20,165
(X - M)
-2,001
-2,035
-4,238
-8,714
-8,236
-9,908
-16,786
Exports
6,535
7,169
7,896
10,078
11,013
12,105
15,798
Imports
6 526 6,526
7 510 7,510
11 724 11,724
17 443 17,443
18 933 18,933
21 844 21,844
30 209 30,209
(X - M)
10
-342
-3,828
-7,365
-7,920
-9,739
-14,411
Crude Oil
Oil Products
Total
Source: BPS.
Trade balance of oil and gas US$ million
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
-15000
2002
2003
2004
2005
Oil & oil products Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
2006
Gas
2007
Oil & gas
2008
Part III LINGKUNGAN POLITIK DAN KECENDERUNGA KECENDERUNG AN JELANG PEMILU
Kecenderungan umum ¾ Dua kali pemilu pascareformasi berlangsung g damai. sangat ¾ Masih ada euphoria demokrasi sejalan dengan proses konsolidasi demokrasi, utamanya penguatan t kkelembagaan. l b ¾ Tidak terjadi kristalisasi kutub-kutub ekstrem, baik ki i maupun kanan kiri k Æ konvergensi k i id ideologi l i atau, t bahkan, non-ideologis. ¾ Praktis P kti ttakk terjadi t j di perubahan b h rezim. i Y Yang sekarang k bercokol adalah pentolan-pentolan Orde Baru: Presiden, Wapres, Ketua DPR, Ketua DPD, Menko Kesra Æ kompromistik.
Krisis ekonomi dan politik? Dampak krisis keuangan global bakal muncul pada tahun 2009 jika pemerintah tidak melakukan antisipasi sejak sekarang. sekarang Bahkan Bahkan, krisis yang menimpa Indonesia tahun 2009 akan lebih berat dibandingkan dengan krisis ekonomi di Asia tahun 1998. Demikian dikatakan Ketua Dewan Perwakilan Daerah Ginandjar Kartasasmita dalam Silaturahmi Kerja Nasional Ikatan Cendekiawan Muslim Indonesia Indonesia, Sabtu (13/12) di Palembang, Palembang Sumatera Selatan. Ginandjar mengungkapkan, tahun 2009 Indonesia bisa mengalami dua krisis sekaligus, yaitu krisis ekonomi dan politik, seperti tahun 1998. Pada tahun 2009 akan dilaksanakan pemilu dan tidak ada yang menjamin bahwa stabilitas politik akan lebih baik. baik (“Dampak Krisis Akan Muncul Tahun 2009,” Kompas, Minggu, 14 Desember , hal.1 dan 15.)
Ekonomi dan siklus politik ¾ Penguasa yang hendak bertarung kembali untuk masa jjabatan kedua akan makin ppeduli dengan g kinerja ekonomi yang langsung dirasakan masyarakat banyak Æ kebijakan-kebijakan populis. populis ¾ Alokasi anggaran untuk publik meningkat. ¾ Politisi P liti i sangatt ttakut k t terhadap t h d inflasi, i fl i terutama t t menjelang pemilu. Mereka akan berusaha keras menekan inflasi Æ harga BBM tak dinaikkan dinaikkan, harga obat dipatok, redam kenaikan harga pangan dengan pemotongan pajak, bea masuk, dan pemberian b i subsidi. b idi
Manajemen perekonomian ¾ Tim inti yang bertanggung jawab atas makroekonomi seluruhnya teknokrat nonpartai dan berkarakter konservatif. ¾ Mereka tak akan berkampanye secara terselubung, terselubung apalagi terang-terangan. ¾ Akan jadi kekuatan peredam/pengerem pendulum politik ke arah destruktif. g mereka teruji; j ; theyy can sayy no to the boss. ¾ Integritas ¾ Pengalaman Pemilu 2004? ¾ Makin banyak rambu dan kekuatan pengimbang (checks and balances)
Perbaikan alamiah ¾ Tak ada perbedaan mndasar antar partai dan antarkandidat presiden Æ lagi-lagi lagi lagi faktornya nonideologis. ¾ Calon-calon presiden dari generasi lama yang sulit diajak dengan mindset baru. ¾ Tapi, Tapi siapa pun yang berkuasa, berkuasa tentu ingin lebih baik dari pendahulunya. ¾ Jadi jangan terlalu pusingkan siapa pemenang pemilu. ¾ Harapan lebih pada 2014.
Penciutan jumlah partai ¾ Jumlah partai di DPR akan menciut dengan pemberlakuan parliamentary threshold 2,5 persen. ¾ Berdasarkan hasil pemilu 2004 hanya ada 8 partai. ¾ Pengelompokan antara partai berkuasa dan partai oposisi akan lebih tegas. tegas ¾ Bisa menghasilkan pemerintahan dan checks & balances yang lebih efektif.
Part IV PROSPEK 2009
Projections of GDP by several agencies No Agency
Date
2008
2009
1
Gov’tt of Indonesia Gov
January 2009
6.2
5.0
2
Bank Indonesia
January 2009
6.2
4.9
3
Economist
January 2009
6.1
3.5
4
W ld Bank World B k
D December b 2008
60 6.0
44 4.4
5
ADB
December 2008
6.1
5.0
6
IMF
October 2008
6.1
5.5
Projection of selected economic indicators 2006 2007 2008 2009 GDP growth, %
5.5
6.3
6.0
5.7
Inflation, %
6.6
6.6
11.5
7.5
Current account, % of GDP
3.0
2.5
1.0
-0.1
BI rate rate, period average, average %
11 6 11.6
86 8.6
88 8.8
7 50 7.50
Rp/US$ (period average) Open unemployment, %
9,203 9,185 9,691 9,950 10.3
9.8
8.3
8.7
Projections of GDP by expenditures
Deskripsi
2008
2009 BI
Pemerintah
FB
5,3
4,4
4,8
5,0
Konsumsi Pemerintah Konsumsi Pemerintah
10 4 10,4
98 9,8
10 4 10,4
15 0 15,0
Investasi
11,7
7,0
6,5
0,0
Ekspor Barang & Jasa Ekspor Barang & Jasa
95 9,5
52 5,2
59 5,9
00 0,0
Impor Barang & Jasa
10,0
6,3
6,1
‐5,0
61 6,1
45 4,5
50 5,0
57 5,7
Konsumsi Swasta
Produk Domestik Bruto Produk Domestik Bruto * Projection
Part V Dampak terhadap Industri Manufaktur
Kinerja industri manufaktur 2008 L j pertumbuhan, Laju t b h %
2008 Q4-08 Q4-08 Sumbangan g (y.o.y) (y.o.y) (q.o.q) 2008 Manufaktur f k
3 3.7
1.8 8
‐2.5 2
1.0 0
PDB
61 6.1
52 5.2
‐3.6 36
61 6.1
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Real GDP growth: tradables (%) 1. Agriculture a. Farm Food Crops b Non Food Crops b. c. Others 2. Mining and Quarrying a. Oil & Gas b. Non Oil & Gas c. Quarrying 3. Manufacturing Industries a Oil & Gas a. b. Non Oil & Gas * Food, Bev. & Tobacco * Textile, Leath & Footw * Wood & Forest Prod. * Paper & Printing * Fertilizer, Chem.& Rubber * Cement/Non-Metal Cement/Non Metal Quarry * Iron & Steel * Transport/Machine Equip. Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
2004 2.8% 2.9% 0 4% 0.4% 3.9% -4.5% -4.3% -8.0% 7.5% 6.4% -2.0% 2 0% 7.5% 1.4% 4.1% -2.1% 7.6% 9.0% 9 5% 9.5% -2.6% 17.7%
2005 2.7% 2.6% 2 5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.2% -1.8% 12.2% 7.7% 4.6% -5.7% 5 7% 5.9% 2.7% 1.3% -0.9% 2.4% 8.8% 3 8% 3.8% -3.7% 12.4%
2006 3.4% 3.0% 3 8% 3.8% 3.7% 1.7% -1.1% 4.8% 8.3% 4.6% -1.7% 1 7% 5.3% 7.2% 1.2% -0.7% 2.1% 4.5% 0 5% 0.5% 4.7% 7.6%
2007 3.5% 3.5% 3 5% 3.5% 3.5% 2.0% -1.2% 5.5% 8.6% 4.7% -0.1% 0 1% 5.2% 5.1% -3.7% -1.7% 5.8% 5.7% 3 4% 3.4% 1.7% 9.7%
H1-2008 5.3% 6.5% 6 6% 6.6% -1.4% 0.0% -6.5% 8.1% 4.1% 0 7% 0.7% 4.5% -2.4% -3.4% 0.3% 0.4% 3.5% -0.5% 0 5% 3.0% 15.8%
Share 14.0% 7.5% 1 9% 1.9% 4.6% 8.3% 4.6% 2.7% 0.9% 26.9% 2 3% 2.3% 24.5% 6.4% 2.6% 1.0% 1.3% 3.3% 0 8% 0.8% 0.4% 8.6%
Real GDP growth: non non--tradables (%) 4. Utilities 5. Constructions 6 Trade, 6. Trade Hotel & Rest. Rest a. Wholesale & Retail b. Hotel c. Restaurant 7. Transport & Comm. a. Transport * Railways * Road * Air Transport b. Communication 8. Finance a. Banks b. Non Bank Financial 9. Services Non Oil & Gas GDP Real GDP Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
2004 5.3% 7.5% 5 7% 5.7% 5.5% 7.9% 6.1% 13.4% 8.8% -0.9% 5 0% 5.0% 30.1% 22.9% 7.7% 6.0% 9.2% 5.4%
2005 6.3% 7.5% 8 3% 8.3% 8.8% 6.2% 5.9% 12.8% 6.3% -3.0% 4 8% 4.8% 10.4% 24.6% 6.7% 4.5% 8.3% 5.2%
2006 5.8% 8.3% 6 4% 6.4% 6.6% 5.2% 5.8% 14.4% 6.6% 6.4% 5 0% 5.0% 10.7% 26.4% 5.5% 1.6% 7.1% 6.2%
2007 10.4% 8.6% 8 5% 8.5% 8.9% 5.3% 6.8% 14.4% 2.8% 1.3% 3 6% 3.6% 8.3% 29.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.1% 6.6%
Share 0.7% 6.2% 17 3% 17.3% 14.3% 0.7% 2.3% 7.3% 3.7% 0.0% 1 6% 1.6% 0.6% 3.6% 9.4% 4.0% 0.8% 9.3%
6.0% 5.0%
6.6% 5.7%
6.1% 5.5%
6.9% 6.3%
92.7% 100.0%
Sumbangan manufaktur terhadap PDB, % 39
Swaziland
35
Thailand
Indonesia 29,0
28,0
27,0
26,0
32
Belarus Ireland
31
Malaysia
31
Romania
31
Korea
29
Singapore
29 28
Indonesia Source: BPS. BPS
Slovenia Source: World Bank.
27
Jumlah penyerapan tenaga kerja Sektor Pertambangan & Penggalian & Penggalian Industri Pengolahan Listrik, Gas, Air Bersih Konstruksi Perdagangan Besar dan Eceran Akomodasi, Makan, Minum T Transportasi, Gudang, Komunikasi t i G d K ik i Perantara Keuangan Real Estat, Usaha Persewaan J Jasa Pendidikan P didik Jasa Kesehatan dan Kegiatan Sosial Jasa Kemasyarakatan, Sosbud, Hiburan J Jasa Perseorangan layani rumahtangga P l i h Jumlah Sumber : BPS, Sensus Ekonomi 2006.
Tenaga Kerja Persentase 633.711 633 711 11.785.057 161.775 724 521 724.521 17.207.494 5.137.200 3 561 066 3.561.066 905.088 1.833.224 4 027 744 4.027.744 732.557 2.756.960 203 77 203.77 49.670.167
1,3 1 3 23,8 0,3 15 1,5 34,5 10,3 72 7,2 1,8 3,7 81 8,1 1,5 5,6 04 0,4 100,0
Pertumbuhan manufaktur besar & sedang KLBI Uraian 15 Makanan & minuman 16 Pengolahan tembakau 17 Tekstil 18 Pakaian jadi 20 Kayu dan brg dr kayu 24 Kimia & brg dr kimia 26 Brg galian bkn logam 27 Logam dasar 29 Mesin & perlengkapannya 31 Mesin listrik lainnya dan perlengkapannya 32 Radio, TV & peralatan komunikasi 34 Kendaraan bermotor 35 Alat angkutan, selain kendaraan bermotor roda‐4 36 Furnitur i & pengolahan & l h lainnya l i Total industri manufaktur *Triwulan ketiga. Sumber: BPS, 3 November 2008. .
2006 11.9 ‐0.9 6.0 67.3 ‐41.0 25.8 11.8 22.1 ‐2.9 ‐1.3 87.1 ‐46.5 ‐36.6 ‐1.9 9 ‐1.6
2007 5.2 15.9 11.2 ‐23.0 ‐16.4 35.8 0.3 12.1 43.0 ‐22.1 50.5 29.6 ‐8.9 ‐14.1 5.6
2008* ‐4.9 6.8 4.7 ‐30.6 0.6 ‐13.0 ‐15.1 ‐2.6 ‐17.3 12.2 12.7 16.6 48.0 43.4 3 1.6
Perkiraan dampak krisis versi pemerintah Kode Deskripsi 1Tanaman bahan makanan 2Perkebunan 3Peternakan 4Kehutanan 5Perikanan 6P t b 6Pertambangan migas i 7Pertambangan nonmigas 8Penggalian 9Industri nonmigas 10Industri migas 10Industri migas 11Listrik, gas, air bersih 12Bangunan 13Perdagangan 14Restoran dan hotel 15Pengangkutan 16Komunikasi 17Keuangan 18Pemerintahan umum 19J 19Jasa lainnya l i 20Kegiatan tak jelas batasnya PDB
Orientasi produksi Domestik Ekspor
Laju pertumbuhan, % 2005 2007 2008 2009
100 89 100 92 95 50 39 98 75 57 100 100 85 100 93 100 100 100 100 99
0 11 0 8 5 50 61 2 25 43 0 0 15 0 7 0 0 0 0 1
2,6 2,5 2,1 ‐1,5 5,4 ‐1,8 18 12,1 7,4 5,9 ‐5 5,9 9 6,3 7,4 8,9 6,7 6,3 25,1 6,8 1,9 79 7,9 7,9
3,5 3,5 3,3 ‐1,7 5,8 ‐1,0 10 5,5 8,6 5,2 ‐0 0,1 1 10,4 8,6 8,9 5,3 2,8 29,5 8,0 5,4 76 7,6 7,6
5,4 4,0 3,5 ‐0,8 3,0 00 0,0 0,0 7,8 4,0 00 0,0 10,5 7,5 7,5 5,0 3,5 15,0 8,5 5,0 75 7,5 7,5
4,5 2,5 2,1 ‐1,5 2,0 25 2,5 2,5 5,0 2,5 50 5,0 6,5 5,0 6,5 4,0 3,0 10,0 5,0 5,0 50 5,0 5,0
85
15
5,7
6,3
6,2
5,0
Which industries are most at risk?
Sumbangan nilai tambah Value Added Contribution to Medium and Large Mfg Industries
High local contents & export oriented (14.42%)
High import contents & export oriented (16.17%)
Highh local Hi l l contents t t & domestic oriented (36.88%)
Highh import Hi i t contents t t & domestic oriented (32.45%)
Sumbangan NT dan tenaga kerja, 2005 Kelompok Industri Penggunaan bahan Orientasi ekspor p 1 baku impor tinggi Orientasi (> 29,3%) domestik Penggunaan bahan baku impor rendah (<= 29,3%) Total
Orientasi ekspor Orientasi domestik
Nilai tambah
Penyerapan tenaga kerja
15,1
26,1
33,2
20,4
36,5
33,2
15,2
20,3
100
100
Catatan: 1. Persentase hasil produksi yang diekspor lebih besar dari rata-rata seluruh industri (21,4%). Sumber: Diolah dari Statistik Industri Desar dan Sedang, Badan Pusat Statistik.
5 besar penyumbang nilai tambah Kandungan impor
Rendah
Tinggi
Ekspor
Plywood; y Pulp; p Karet Garmen; Tabungg dan remah; Minyak goreng komponen elektrik; dr kelapa; Pembekuan Pemintalan benang; ikan Sepatu; Lembaran kaca
Domestik
Kretek;; Minyak y kasar;; Semen; Minyak goreng dr sawit; pupuk
Orientasi pasar
Kendaraan roda 4;; Kertas budaya; Farmasi; Radio, TV dan alat perekam; Autopart
Instrumen kebijakan Kandungan impor
Rendah
Ekspor Orientasi pasar
Domestik
Tinggi
Bea keluaran untuk Penurunan ekspor bahan baku bak Pen r nan tarif bea Kelancaran pasokan masuk bahan baku bahan baku Galakkan FDI Penetrasi pasar ekspor Pembebasan P b b PPN? Iklim persaingan
Penurunan bea k masukk komponen Pengamanan pasar domestik Sentuhan teknologi
Terima Kasih Email:
[email protected] faisal basri@gmail com
