MINISTRY OF TRADE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
TURKEY-INDONESIA JOINT STUDY GROUP ON THE FEASIBILITY OF A COMPREHENSIVE TRADE AND ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT
FINAL REPORT
Jakarta, January 31, 2012
DAFTAR ISI JSG • Pendahuluan • Kondisi Makroekonomi • Perdagangan dan Investasi: Global, Regional dan Bilateral • Analisis Dampak Pengurangan Tarif terhadap Impor Turki dan Indonesian • Kerjasama yang Prospektif dan Rekomendasi
Pendahuluan • Sidang Komisi Bersama (SKB) ke-7 yang dilaksanakan pada tanggal 18 September 2008 di Ankara, Turki dimana kedua negara menyetujui beberapa komitmen. • Salah satu komitmen antara Indonesia dan Turki, seperti yang tertulis dalam paragraf 3 dari Agreed Minutes, adalah didirikannya Comprehensive Trade and Economic Partnership (CTEP), menindaklanjuti hal tersebut, kedua negara sepakat untuk membentuk kelompok kerja teknis yang mempersiapkan rencana dan kerangka kerja untuk CTEP. • Pertemuan pertama Joint Study Group diadakan pada tanggal 9-10 Maret 2010 di Ankara, Turki. Pertemuan kedua diadakan di Jakarta, Indonesia pada tanggal 7-8 Oktober 2010 dan pertemuan terakhir diadakan di Ankara, Turki pada tanggal 2426 Februari 2011
Kondisi Makroekonomi
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia dan Turkey Percent
12 Turkey 8
6.8
9.4 8.4 6.9
6.2 5.3
4
4.9
4.5
3.6
4.8
5.0
5.7
5.5
6.1
6.1
6.3
4.5
4.7
Indonesia
6.0 0.7
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
-4 -4.7 -5.7 -8
*) Turkish figure is prediction
•
•
Perekonomian Indonesia tumbuh dengan rata-rata 5.1% per tahun dalam periode 2000 dan 2009. Pertumbuhan di tahun 2009 melambat bila dibandingkan dengan tahun 2008, namun tetap mencatat pertumbuhan yang positif sebesar 4,5%. Pada tahun 2010 pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat menjadi 6,1% serta menunjukan trend yang meningkat dengan angka 6,9% di tahun 2010. Selama periode 2002-2007, GDP Turki tumbuh dengan rata-rata 6,8%. Dikarenakan dampak krisis finansial global, pertumbuhan GDP turun ke 0,7% selama tahun 2008 dan menjadi negatif sebesar 4,7% di tahun 2009. pada tahun 2010 pertumbuhan Turki diproyeksikan mencapai lebih dari 6,1%
Distribusi dan Trend GDP (Current Prices) by Expenditure Distribution (%) EXPENDITURE
2005 Indonesia
1 Household onsumption
Trend (%) 2009
Turkey
Indonesia
2005-2009 Turkey
Indonesia
Turkey
64.4
71.7
58.6
71.6
17.15
10.34
8.1
11.8
9.6
14.7
23.61
15.89
23.6
21.0
31.1
16.8
28.23
4.48
1.4
-1.0
-0.1
-2.0
-
-
5 Export of goods and services
34.1
21.9
24.1
23.2
11.32
12.37
6 Import of Goods and services
29.9
25.4
21.3
24.3
13.21
9.88
2 Government consumption 3 Gross fixed capital formation 4 Changes in inventories
• Konsumsi rumah tangga mendominasi GDP baik di Indonesia dan di Turki. • Pelambatan perekonomian global di tahun 2008 berpengaruh terhadap ekspor barang dan jasa Turki ke Indonesia di tahun 2009
Distribution and Trend of GDP (Current Prices) by Sectors Distribution (%) SECTOR
2005 Indonesia
Trend (%) 2009
Turkey
Indonesia
2005-2009 Turkey
Indonesia
Turkey
1
Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fisheries
13.13
10.62
15.29
9.05
24.82
6.76
2
Mining and Quarrying
11.14
1.33
10.54
1.64
18.38
18.00
3
Manufacturing Industries
27.41
19.60
26.38
16.48
19.00
6.70
4
Electricity, Gas and Water Supply
0.96
2.09
0.83
2.63
15.27
18.76
5
Construction
7.03
5.02
9.89
4.23
29.75
7.32
6
Trade, Hotel & Restaurant
15.56
16.57
13.37
14.59
15.35
8.11
7
Transport and Communication
6.51
15.58
6.28
14.67
17.78
10.18
8
Banking, Leasing & Business
8.31
17.67
7.20
24.23
15.44
20.11
9
Services
9.96
11.51
10.22
12.47
19.98
13.07
•
Sektor yang paling penting dalam perekonomian Indonesia adalah manufaktur (26,38%); pertanian, perternakan, kehutanan, perikanan (15,29%); dan perdagangan, hotel serta restoran (13,37%). Sektor favorit di periode 20052009 adalah konstruksi dan pertanian.
•
Perbankan, leasing, dan bisnis paling banyak berkontribusi pada perekonomian Turki di tahun 2009 (24,23% GDP) dan memiliki trend tertinggi sebesar 20,11% dalam lima tahun terakhir.
Indikator Keuangan: Inflasi Percent 80 68.5
60
40
39.0
Indonesia
29.7 18.4
20
9.4
0
9.3
2000
12.5
2001
9.9
2002
5.2 6.4
2003
2004
17.1
7.7
2005
9.7 6.6
2006
8.4 5.4
2007
11.1 6.5 10.1
6.4 6.9
2.8
2008
2009
2010
•
Perekonomian Turki mencatat level inflasi yang tinggi dengan rata-rata 38,9% pada periode 200-2003. Ketatnya disiplin kebijakan moneter dan reformasi berhasil menurunkan inflasi di tahun 2004 dan teatap stabil sampai tahun 2010.
•
Inflasi Indonesia pada tahun 2009 merupakan terendah selama 10 tahun terakhir. Secara rata-rata, inflasi untuk periode 2000-2009 mencapai 8,7%
Financial Indicators : Real Effective Exchange Rate 2005=100 140
120
Indonesia
100
Turkey 80
60 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Bank for International Settlements
•
Semenjak awal tahun 2002, rupiah cukup stabil sampai akhir 2008. dikarenakan aliran modal yang kuat, pada tahun 2011 rupiah berada pada nilai 9000 per US dollar.
•
Semenjak mencapai titik terendah di bulan Oktober 2006, Lira mengalami peningkatan bertahap.
•
Baik lira dan rupiah meningkat lebih dari 100 poin semenjak krisis global 2008
Financial Indicators : Interest Rates Percent 60 TY-Saving Deposit Rate
50 40 30
ID-Interest Rate Spread
20
ID-Saving Deposit Rate
10 0 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-10 -20
TY-Interest Rate Spread
Notes: Interest rate spread is lending rate minus central bank discount rate Source: IMF, CBRT
•
•
•
Pada periode 2000-2009, tingkat penyimpanan deposito di Turki lebih tinggi dari Indonesia, yang terecermin dari perbedaan tingkat inflasi. Rata-rata tingkat deposito Turki mencapai 27,2% dibandingkan dengan Indonesia sebesar 9,7%. Tingkat deposito Turki umumnya lebih tinggi dari tingkat pinjaman, hal ini mengindikasikan tingkat bunga negarif. Sedangkan di Indonesia tingkat pinjaman lebih tinggi dari tingkat deposito, mengindikasikan biaya intermediasi bank yang tinggi Akan tetapi, tingkat deposito yang agresif memperbolehkan bank untuk mempertahankan rasio pinjaman-deposito yang menguntungkan. Ekses likuiditas di investasikan dalam sekuritas pemerintah dan surat Bank Indonesia, keduanya memiliki tingkat bunga yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan menyimpan deposito
Financial Indicators : Balance of Payments Billion US$ 60
40
20
0
-20
-40
ID-Current Account
ID-Capital & Financial Account
ID-Reserve Assets
TY-Current Account
TY-Capital & Financial Account
TY-Reserve Assets
-60
Source: IMF
•
Sebagai dampak dari melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia dan jatuhnya hargaharga komoditi, neraca pembayaran Indonesia pada tahun 2008 mencatat defisit sebesar 1,9 milyar USD. Seiring dengan membaiknya perekonomian global, neraca pembayaran Indonesia pada tahun 2009 mencatat surplus sebesar 10,6 milyar USD.
•
Pada periode 2002-2010, nereaca pembayaran Turki mencatat defisit di kisaran 0,6 – 48,6 miliar USD. Defisit tertinggi tercatat pada tahun 2007 yang mencapai nilai 48,6 miliar USD. Perdagangan barang merupakan faktor utama defisit Turki
Recent Population and Projection (Million People) Type of Activity
2009
2010
2015*
2020*
Indonesia Population (total) Population 15 Years of Age and Over
231.83 169.33
237.56 171.02
244.19 183.28
254.22 196.04
Turkey Population (total) Population 15 Years of Age and Over
70.54 51.69
73.72 52.86
79.97 60.42
83.87 64.54
Notes: * ILO Estimates Source: Statistics Indonesia, Turkish Statistical Institute, and ILO
•
Indonesia merupakan negara peringkat keempat dengan populasi terbanyak di dunia dengan 237 juta jiwa pada tahun 2010. Sementara populasi Turki mencapai 73 juta jiwa, atau sekitar 30,4% populasi Indonesia
Labor Force Statistics (Million Persons) Type of Activity
2005
2009
2010
Indonesia Working Unemployment Labor Force Participation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%)
93.96 11.89 66.79 11.24
104.87 8.96 67.24 7.87
107.41 8.59 67.83 7.41
Turkey Working Unemployment Labor Force Participation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%)
22.05 2.52 48.30 10.30
21.28 3.47 47.90 14.00
22.85 2.81 48.60 11.00
Source: Statistics Indonesia and Turkish Statistical Institute
•
Pada periode 2000-2009, angka pengangguran rata-rata Indonesia berada di angka 9%.
•
Dari total populasi Turki sebanyak 73 juta jiwa, 24 juta jiwa merupakan tenaga kerja aktif, dan Turki memiliki tenaga kerja ke lima terbesar dibandingkan negara-negara EU.
Unemployment Rates, 2003-2009 Percent 15
Turkey
12 10.4
8.4
9
8.1
10.8
10.5
9.1
9.5
9.9
11.2
10.6
10.3 10.3
10.2
14.0
11.0 9.1
8.4
11.0 7.4
7.9
6.5 6
6.1
Indonesia
3 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Statistics Indonesia and OECD Employment Database
•
Pengangguran merupakan tantangan bagi Indonesia dan Turki. Kedua negara menyusun beragam kebijakan penghapusan pengangguran dengan tujuan memperkuat pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui perdagangan luar negeri, dan investasi secara unilateral, bilateral, regional dan multilateral.
Perdagangan dan Investasi: Global, Regional and Bilateral
Perdagangan Barang, 2000-2009 Billion US$ 350 300
TY-Total Trade
250 ID-Total Trade 200 150
ID-Total Export
100
TY-Total Export
50 0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
ID-Trade Balance
-50 ID-Trade Balance TY-Trade Balance -100
Source: Indonesian Statistics and UN COMTRADE
•
Total Perdagangan Indonesia meningkat secara kuat pada periode 2003-2008. Pada tahun 2009 neraca peradagangan Indonesia memperoleh surplus 19,7 miliar USD atau meningkat 151,6% melebihi tahun sebelumnya.
•
Turki mengalami defisit neraca perdagangan selama perode 2000-2009. Akan tetapi total perdagangan Turki semenjak 2003 menunjukan aktifitas yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan Indonesia. Aktifitas yang tinggi ini menunjukan program perdagangan Turki yang sukses.
Ekspor ke dunia menurut kelompok komoditas Indonesia Description
T otal Animal & Animal P roducts Vegetable P roducts F oods tuffs Mineral P roducts C hemicals & Allied Indus tries P las tics / R ubbers R aw Hides , S kins , L eather, & F urs Wood & Wood P roducts T extiles F ootwear / Headgear S tone / G las s Metals Machinery / E lectrical T rans portation Mis cellaneous
Value (US$ million) 2000 2009 2010*
62,124 1,650 2,803 1,081 17,590 2,349 2,534 403 6,711 8,204 1,780 1,188 2,348 10,303 587 2,585
116,510 1,998 14,124 3,735 38,982 4,869 6,685 301 6,655 9,264 1,914 1,930 6,977 12,564 3,289 3,223
140,949 2,110 16,111 4,060 48,877 6,356 10,358 336 7,832 10,106 2,453 2,158 9,043 14,014 3,800 3,333
Turkey Trend (%) 2000-2009
10.87 3.51 25.52 15.31 12.96 12.16 17.97 -0.59 2.31 3.58 3.21 7.25 21.70 4.35 27.64 5.00
2000
27,485 121 1,898 1,578 914 954 875 450 253 10,013 120 1,269 2,920 3,341 2,385 393
US$ (million) 2009
102,139 779 5,717 4,205 6,664 2,930 4,562 548 1,606 19,089 312 8,362 14,832 14,772 14,270 2,223
2010
113,930 865 6,507 4,680 8,307 4,443 5,613 662 1,890 21,843 422 6,467 17,386 16,878 15,241 2,557
Trend (%) 2000-2009
19.44 21.32 14.95 14.14 32.09 15.97 23.89 3.93 23.39 9.72 14.03 25.21 25.21 21.46 27.27 25.27
Notes: *January-November for Indonesian figures Source: Statistics of Indonesia, Statistics of Turkey
Notes: *January-November for Indonesian figures Source: Statistics of Indonesia, Statistics of Turkey
•
Pada 10 tahun terakhir, ekspor Turki meningkat 19,4% per tahun atau lebih cepat dari ekspor Indonesia.
•
Sementara komoditi utama Indonesia pada tahun 2009 adalah mineral, sayuran, permesinan dan produk elektronik. Komoditi ekspor Turki terkonsetrasi pada tekstil, logam, mesin, elektronik dan transportasi
Impor dari dunia menurut kelompok komoditas Indonesia Description 2000
T otal Animal & Animal P roducts Vegetable P roducts F oods tuffs Mineral P roducts C hemicals & Allied Indus tries P las tics / R ubbers R aw Hides , S kins , L eather, & F urs Wood & Wood P roducts T extiles F ootwear / Headgear S tone / G las s Metals Machinery / E lectrical T rans portation Mis cellaneous S ervice
Value (US$ million) 2009 2010*
33,515 489 1,822 1,108 6,410 4,950 1,576 212 1,527 2,284 94 200 3,013 6,171 2,952 706 -
96,829 1,502 3,826 3,474 19,931 9,186 4,341 300 2,125 4,171 153 515 9,557 25,833 9,168 1,993 -
122,517 1,911 4,498 4,020 25,886 11,348 5,849 432 2,786 5,530 253 758 12,467 32,319 10,345 2,590 1,524
Turkey Trend (%) 2000-2009
17.06 17.50 11.99 15.50 20.78 11.16 15.47 5.90 8.41 7.12 8.74 14.75 20.66 20.35 15.66 17.01 -
2000
Value (US$ million) 2009 2010*
54,150 131 1,272 809 9,808 5,693 2,679 491 1,573 3,454 138 477 4,958 13,828 6,685 2,109 45
140,869 287 4,085 1,980 21,146 14,098 8,501 713 3,427 8,460 623 3,078 17,968 29,367 11,836 4,506 10,795
185,492.9 884 4,481 2,318 39,802 16,890 12,052 964 4,620 11,964 775 4,472 26,040 35,879 18,145 5,842 365
Trend (%) 2000-2009
18.47 15.52 19.98 14.90 16.13 14.77 20.90 6.86 16.29 14.17 26.78 25.04 25.98 15.09 17.73 15.36 82.93
Notes: *January-November for Indonesian figures Source: Statistics of Indonesia, Statistics of Turkey
•
Pada 10 tahun terakhir, Impor Indonesia dan Turki dari dunia memiliki tingkat pertumbuhan yang sama sekitar 17% per tahun.
•
Impor Indonesia dari dunia pada tahun 2009 didominasi produk mesin, elektronik, dan logam, sementara produk impor Turki didominasi mesin, elektronik, minereal dan logam.
Ekspor menurut Destinasi No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
PARTNE R AS IA AS E AN C J K (C hina+J apan+Korea) ANI (Australia+New Zealand+India) E UR OPE AN E uropean Union AME R IC AN United S tates NAFTA ME R C OS UR AFR IC A S outh African Development C ommunity (S ADC ) Australia & Oceania WORL D
2000 Indonesia 40,202 10,884 21,501 2,777 9,183 8,949 9,950 8,489 9,137 377 1,092 324 1,720 62,124
Turkey 3,336 231 371 191 17,845 15,818 3,532 3,074 3,287 85 1,353 93 135 27,485
2009 2010* Trend 2000-2009 Indonesia Turkey Indonesia Turkey Indonesia Turkey 81,849 22,367 100,214 31,898 12.2 27.2 24,624 1,163 30,066 1,478 13.3 21.5 38,219 2,067 48,061 2,837 11.2 23.3 11,047 771 12,907 1,008 18.9 23.0 14,587 61,822 16,543 64,059 8.3 19.1 13,568 47,764 15,174 52,670 7.5 17.3 13,464 4,612 16,582 6,085 6.5 5.8 10,850 3,234 12,854 3,769 5.8 2.9 11,747 3,666 14,141 4,394 5.8 3.7 1,112 516 1,691 850 18.2 24.7 2,754 10,365 3,262 9,302 13.3 27.3 852 1,161 1,002 14.9 41.1 3,790 465 4,332 403 11.3 24.2 116,510 102,139 140,949 113,930 10.9 19.4
Notes: *January-November for Indonesian figures Source: Statistics of Indonesia, Statistics of Turkey
•
Dalam konteks geografi, Asia menjadi sumber impor utama Indonesia pada tahun 2009 (share 70,3%) diikuti dengan Eropa (12,5%) dan Amerika (11,6%).
•
Pasar ekspor utama Turki adalah Eropa, Asia, dan Afrika. Afrika menggantikan Amerika sebagai negara tujuan ekspor ketiga dengan trend 27,3% pertahun selama perode 2000-2009.
Ekspor Indonesia ke Turki •
•
•
•
Turki memiliki pangsa pasar 0,6% total ekspor dan 0,5% total impor perdagangan barang Indonesia Trend ekspor ke Turki tercatat positif sebesar 15,8% selama tahun 2005-2009 Perdagangan kedua negara terkonsentrasi pada sejumlah produk. Pada tahun 2009, 20 komoditi ekspor utama Indonesia mencapai 424 juta USD atau sekitar 62,5% total ekspor Indonesia ke Turki. Komoditi utama terdiri dari: Karet, tekstil, dan sayuran
Value (million US$) 2005 2009
Trend Export to Turkey (%) 05-09
Share Export to Turkey (%) 2009
Share Export to the World (%) 2009
No
HS
Description
565.9
678.4
5.6
100.0
1
400122
34.5
64.3
20.7
9.5
100.00 2.66
2 3
550410 540233
20.8 17.0
61.4 45.1
35.6 18.0
9.0 6.6
0.22 0.19
4
151190
74.8
40.7
-14.2
6.0
4.00
5
551011
Natural rubber in other forms :-- Technically specified natural rubber (TSNR) Staple fibres of viscose, not carded or combed Textured yarn nes,of polyester filaments,not put up for retail sale Palm oil and its fractions refined but not chemically modified Yarn,>/=85% of artificial staple fibres, single, not put up
21.3
30.6
7.7
4.5
0.21
6
551311
5.5
19.9
35.5
2.9
0.06
7
540752
8.2
19.7
25.4
2.9
0.09
8 9
852190 382311
0.4 9.3
17.6 13.7
175.6 10.3
2.6 2.0
0.79 0.10
10
390410
16.6
13.5
-3.2
2.0
0.13
11
540772
5.4
13.1
33.1
1.9
0.03
12
847160
0.7
11.6
85.8
1.7
0.98
13
540710
5.4
11.6
23.5
1.7
0.12
14
480257
Plain weave polyest stapl fib fab,<85%,mixd w/cottn,/=85% of textured polyester filaments, dyed, nes Video recording or reproducing apparatus nes Industrial monocarboxylic fatty acids; acid oils from refining :-- Stearic acid Poly(vinyl chloride), not mixed with any other substance, in primary forms Woven fabrics,>/=85% of synthetic filaments, dyed, nes Input or output units, whether or not containing storage units in the same housing Woven fabrics obtained from high tenacity yarn of nylon or other polyamides or of polyesters Paper&paperboard, not containing fibres obtained by a mechanical/chemi-mechanical process/of which not > 10% by weight of the total fibre content consists of such fibres, weighing > 40 g/m¦ but not > 150 g/m¦(excl. of 4802.54-4802.56)
0.0
10.1
-
1.5
0.64
15
540810
0.7
9.6
147.4
1.4
0.01
16
390120
0.3
9.3
-
1.4
0.02
17
551611
4.9
8.5
20.4
1.3
0.02
18
550951
11.1
8.4
-13.4
1.2
0.13
19
550953
8.6
8.3
4.2
1.2
0.07
20
151790
0.5
7.5
124.7
1.1
0.18
246.1 319.8
424.2 254.2
15.8 -4.7
62.5 37.5
Total
Woven fabrics obtained from high tenacity yarn, of viscose rayon Polyethylene having a sp.gr. of 0.94/more, in primary forms Woven fabrics,containg>/=85% of artificial staple fibres,unbleached/bl Yarn of polyester staple fibres mixd w/ arti staple fib,not put up,nes Yarn of polyester staple fibres mixed with cotton, not put up, nes Edible mx/prep of animal/veg fats&oils/of fractions ex hd No 15.16 Subtotal Others
Source: UN COMTRADE
10.7 89.3
Impor Indonesia dari Turki •
•
•
20 Komoditi Impor utama Indonesia pada tahun 2009 tercatat sebesar 546 juta USD atau 93% dari total impor. Volme perdagangan relatif kecil apabila dibandingkan dengan nilai total perdagangan, tetapi trend pertembuhan impor mencatat peningkatan yang signifikan sejumlah 133,7% per tahun selama tahun 2005-2009. Hal tersebut disebabkan oleh meningkatnya impor minyak bumi dan mineral (HS270900) yang memiliki pangsa 58,6% dan tepung terigu dan meslin (HS110100) dengan pangsa 20.1%.
No
HS
1
270900
2 3
110100 240120
4
720711
5 6
290243 240110
7
720712
8
847981
9
890110
10 11
284019 310230
12 13 14 15
721399 720839 281830 721391
16
251512
17
843710
Total
18 19 20
Source: UN COMTRADE
Description Total
Value (million US$) 2005 2009
Trend Import from Turkey (%) 05-09
Share Import from Turkey (%) 2009
Share Import from the World 2009
68.8
587.7
101.9
100.0
0.0
344.4
-
58.6
100.00 7.60
9.4 15.8
118.0 14.6
104.7 4.9
20.1 2.5
0.23 0.23
0.0
9.0
-
1.5
0.22
0.0 3.6
8.4 7.1
25.5
1.4 1.2
0.62 0.06
Semi-fin prod,iron/n-al steel,rect/sq cross sect,cntg by wgt<.25% carb Mach f treatg metal inc electric wire coil-winders nes havg indiv func Cruise ships, excursion boats and similar vessels principally designed for the transport of persons; ferryboats of all kinds Disodium tetraborate (refined borax) hydrated Ammonium nitrate,whether or not in aqeuous sol in pack weighg > 10 kg Hot rolled bar/rod, irregular coils, nes Hot roll iron/steel nes, coil >600mm x <3mm Aluminium hydroxide Bars & rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, of iron/non-alloy steel (excl. of 7213.10 & 7210.20), of circular cross-section measuring <14mm in diameter
0.0
6.4
-
1.1
0.69
0.0
5.7
-
1.0
0.04
0.0
5.2
-
0.9
0.05
3.6 0.0
4.4 3.5
14.3 -
0.7 0.6
0.01 0.21
0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3
70.2 -
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
0.04 0.15 0.02 0.06
Marble & travertine, merely cut, by sawing/othw., into blocks/slabs of a rectangular (incl. square) shape
0.9
2.2
28.1
0.4
0.01
Machines for cleaning, sorting or grading seed, grain or dried leguminous vegetables 252910 Felspar 853521 Automatic circuit breaker f a voltage > 1,000 volts but < 72.5 KV 880220 Aeroplanes and other aircraft, of an unladen weight not exceeding 2,000 kg Subtotal Others
0.0
2.2
-
0.4
0.02
3.1 1.6
2.2 2.1
-4.6 10.6
0.4 0.4
0.02 0.02
0.0
1.4
-
0.2
0.01
38.2 30.6
546.5 41.2
133.7 21.0
93.0 7.0
Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude. Wheat or meslin flour. Tobacco, unmanufactured, partly or wholly stemmed or stripped Semi-finished products of iron/non-alloy steel, containing by weight <0.25% of carbon, of rectangular (incl. square) cross-section, the width measuring < twice the thickness P-xylene Tobacco, unmanufactured, not stemmed or stripped
10.3 89.7
Perdagangan Barang Bilateral (Juta USD) Exports 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
29 47 54 81 85 174 284 251 251
%Change -12.0 64.6 15.2 49.3 5.1 104.5 63.7 -11.9 0.0
Imports 327 450 623 750 1,031 1,360 1,409 1,018 1,477
%Change 61.7 37.7 38.4 20.3 37.5 31.9 3.6 -27.8 45.1
Balance -298 -403 -569 -669 -946 -1,186 -1,124 -767 -1.226
Volume % Exp/Imp 356 497 678 831 1,116 1,534 1,693 1,269 1.727
8.7 10.4 8.7 10.8 8.2 12.8 20.2 24.6 17.0
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute
•
Ekspor Turki ke Indonesia meningkat dari 29 juta di tahun 2002 menjadi 284 juta di tahun 2008. namun dikarenakan krisis global, ekspor Indonesia menurun 11,9% menjadi 251 juta USD di tahun 2009 dan berada di level yang sama pada tahun 2010.
•
Impor dari Indonesia meningkat secara signifikan dari 327 juta USD pada tahun 2002 menjadi 1,4 miliar USD pada tahun 2008. Sama halnya dengan ekspor, pada tahun 2009 nilai impor menurun dengan tingkat 27,8% ke 1 miliar USD. Sedangkan pada tahun 2010, impor turki dari Indonesia meningkat ke nilai 1,5 miliar USD.
Komposisi Perdagangan Bilateral Turki - Indonesia (Juta USD) Export
1- AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS i-Food ii-Agricultural Raw Materials 2- MINING PRODUCTS i- Metalliferous ores and metal scrap ii- Mineral fuels ii-Non-ferrous metals 3- MANUFACTURES i-Iron and steel ii-Chemicals iii-Other semi-manufactures iv- Machinery and transport eqp, Automotive products Office machines and tele,eqp, Other machinery-transport eqp, Power generating machinery Other non-electrical machinery Other transport equipment Electrical machinery and apar. v- Textiles vi- Clothing vii - Other consumer goods 4- OTHER PRODUCTS TOTAL
Import
2009
2010
% Change
2009
2010 % Change
142 141 1 7
172 167 5 6
21.2 18.4 387.5 -4.1
319 171 148 13
533 231 303 50
67.1 35.2 103.8 269.1
5 2 0 102 29 23 8 30 1 0 29 0 14 11 4 11 0 1 0 251
6 0 0 72 7 15 9 19 1 0 18 1 13 0 3 20 0 1 0 251
32.3 -94.5 -29.4 -75.2 -37.1 18.8 -35.5 87.8 -38.6 239.5 -12.3 -91.5 -17.3 89.8 -7.6 0.0
0 0 13 685 3 71 80 80 7 53 21 0 3 0 17 302 47 102 0 1,018
0 27 22 894 8 63 113 104 9 52 44 7 5 0 32 444 40 122 0 1,477
67.0 30.4 150.8 -10.6 40.0 29.3 26.3 -3.0 -112.7 60.7 9.2 86.0 47.1 -14.3 19.4 24.9 45.1
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute
•
Berkenaan dengan komposisi perdagangan barang antara Turki dan Indonesia, sektor pertanian merupakan sektor utama dalam ekspor Turki ke Indonesia, dan dalam sektor tersebut, produk makanan memiliki peran yang penting.
Ekspor dan Impor dalam Jasa Komersial (Juta US$) Description Communications services Computer and information services Construction services Financial services Government services, n.i.e. Insurance services Personal, cultural and recreational services Royalties and license fees Transportation Travel Other business services Total services
2004 Export Import 835.4 359.2 137.8 468.0 463.0 707.9 296.5 593.6 290.7 236.1 8.0 352.6 47.2 183.7 221.2 990.3 2,278.9 5,473.5 4,797.8 3,507.0 2,669.0 7,984.4 12,045.4 20,856.3
Indonesia Turkey 2008 2009 2004 2008 2009 Export Import Export Import Export Import Export Import Export Import 1,096.3 776.0 1,030.8 452.5 346.0 207.0 726.9 298.3 633.0 247.0 177.5 713.1 125.8 641.5 13.0 32.1 12.0 30.0 666.7 749.3 585.5 798.1 743.0 19.0 1,149.2 172.1 1,279.0 189.0 304.2 341.6 178.1 384.7 288.0 377.0 843.3 979.1 464.0 826.0 514.8 250.8 537.1 260.5 254.0 975.0 461.3 1,239.5 460.0 1,306.0 20.3 682.8 20.6 1,129.5 274.0 839.0 754.1 1,418.7 663.0 1,200.0 77.2 125.9 75.3 126.2 1,418.0 176.0 1,227.3 181.3 774.0 207.0 27.2 1,327.7 38.1 1,530.1 362.0 729.8 648.0 2,800.2 13,791.3 2,442.5 12,044.5 3,267.0 4,331.0 7,797.0 7,546.2 7,579.0 6,545.0 7,374.0 5,396.6 6,317.6 5,164.9 15,888.0 2,524.0 22,010.4 3,510.2 21,250.0 4,147.0 2,184.3 3,828.8 2,427.4 5,354.1 482.0 353.0 91.3 1,379.7 104.0 1,568.0 15,242.7 27,984.0 13,778.8 27,886.6 22,960.0 10,163.0 35,073.7 17,487.4 33,218.0 16,913.0
Source: International Trade Centre
•
Selama tahun 2004-2009 Indonesia terus mengalami defist dalam perdagangan jasa, secara kontras berlawanan dengan Turki yang mengalami surplus.
•
Ekspor jasa Indonesia untuk tahun 2009 didominasi oleh travel yang tercatat sebesar 6.317 juta USD atau sebesar 45,8% dari total ekspor jasa. Sedangkan impor Indonesia dalam sektor jasa didominasi oleh transportasi yang mencatat 12 miliar USD atau sebesar 43,2% dari total impor jasa.
•
Secara khusus sektor jasa penyumbang terbesar di Turki adalah turisme. Warisan sejarah serta kebijakan dan manajemen yang baik berhasil mendorong sejumlah besar wisatawan datang ke Turki
MFN Tariff Rates, 2009 European Union
Percent 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 -
Indonesia
Turkey
45.5 37.6
37.7
26.7 23.0
20.7 20.0
23.7
17.4 13.9 7.5
0
>0 - 5
>5 - 10
6.6
6.3
>10 - 15
1.4 1.0 2.0
0.3 0.4 0.5
>15 -20
>20 -25
0.1 0.9
>25
3.4
0.2
3.3
Specific & other tariff
Notes:
* Turkey has 39 tariff lines in 6 digit HS which also has specific tariff in addition on it advalorem tariff * EU has 127 tariff lines in 6 digit HS which also has specific tariff in addition on it advalorem tariff * Indonesia has 1 tariff lines in 6 digit HS which also has specific tariff in addition on it advalorem tariff Source: UNTAD TRAINS
•
Pola tarif MFN Turki serupa dengan EU karena Turki merupakan anggota dari EU Custom Union
•
Indonesia and Turkey have lots of tariff rates in the range of 0% and 5%. However, Turkey still has a number of tariffs higher than 25%, especially in agricultural products.
Profil Tarif Indonesia Product groups
Animal products
MFN applied duties Duty-free AVG in % 4.4 16.2
Turkey Imports
MFN applied duties
Share in Duty-free Max % in % 25.0 0.5 63.6
Duty-free AVG in % 127.6 7.2
Imports
Share Duty-free Max in % in % 225.0 0.0 87.4
Dairy products
5.5
0.0
10.0
0.7
0.0
119.1
0.0
170.0
0.1
0.0
Fruit, vegetables, plants
5.9
6.2
25.0
0.7
0.3
33.1
9.0
146.0
0.5
19.2
Coffee, tea
8.3
4.2
15.0
0.2
0.3
32.6
8.3
145.0
0.2
38.3
Cereals & preparations Oilseeds, fats & oils
5.8
6.8
150.0
2.5
71.2
26.4
7.4
130.0
1.4
6.2
3.9
38.2
10.0
1.6
87.1
14.9
15.3
50.0
1.8
9.5
Sugars and confectionery Beverages & tobacco
8.0
0.0
21.0
0.4
0.0
82.6
3.8
135.0
0.0
4.9
51.8
1.1
150.0
0.4
0.0
35.9
21.7
75.0
0.3
3.9
Cotton
4.0
20.0
5.0
0.9
97.8
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.5
100.0
Other agricultural products Fish & fish products
4.3
22.3
15.0
0.7
67.7
10.7
40.4
75.0
0.6
33.1
5.8
4.9
15.0
0.1
32.2
33.8
9.5
375.0
0.1
15.2
Minerals & metals
6.4
19.7
30.0
16.5
47.2
2.7
39.2
23.0
26.7
53.7
Petroleum
0.3
95.0
5.0
23.2
99.1
2.4
38.6
5.0
14.3
58.8
Chemicals Wood, paper, etc.
5.2
21.1
150.0
10.6
38.7
4.6
21.7
17.0
13.2
27.3
5.0
27.8
15.0
2.4
57.8
0.9
79.9
10.0
2.8
84.5
Textiles
9.3
1.0
25.0
3.0
4.8
6.5
2.1
12.0
4.0
1.8
Clothing
14.4
0.0
15.0
0.2
0.0
11.5
0.0
12.0
1.1
0.0
Leather, footwear, etc. Non-electrical machinery
9.0
12.7
25.0
1.5
15.3
4.1
25.6
17.0
1.9
32.2
2.3
70.7
15.0
14.1
70.2
1.7
26.7
10.0
12.3
24.2
Electrical machinery
5.8
32.5
15.0
10.1
66.8
2.5
30.1
14.0
7.1
38.0
10.6
39.3
50.0
7.3
32.6
4.1
16.9
22.0
8.2
6.6
6.9
18.2
15.0
2.6
11.2
2.6
23.6
14.0
3.0
44.6
Transport equipment Manufactures, n.e.s.
Source: WTO, World Tariff Profiles 2010
•
Applied average tariff rate di Indonesia relatif rendah dibandingkan negara berkembang lainnya. Walaupun dalam beberapa pos tarif masih berada dalam angka yang tinggi
•
Berdasarkan WTO Tariff Profiles 2010, rata-rata MFN applied tarif tertinggi di Indonesia berada pada komoditi beverage & tobacco (51,8%), clothing (14,4%) dan transport equipment (10,6%)
Nilai Impor menurut tingkat tarif 2009 Indonesia import from Turkey Tariff 0 >0 - 5 >5 - 10 >10 - 15 >15 -20 >20 -25 >25 Specific & other tariff Total
Value (thousand US$) 398,645.5 167,946.4 10,922.4 10,054.5 138.3 587,707.1
Share (%) 67.8 28.6 1.9 1.7 0.0 100.0
Turkey import from Indonesia Value (thousand US$) 179,595.6 302,883.2 311,968.0 58,282.7 85,062.4 18,297.1 55,671.9 4,909.2 1,016,670.1
Share (%) 17.7 29.8 30.7 5.7 8.4 1.8 5.5 0.5 100.0
Source: UN-COMTRADE (calculated)
•
Dalam perdagangan bilateral, nilai impor (c.i.f) Turki dari Indonesia lebih tinggi daripada impor Indonesia dari Turki. 67,8% komoditi-komoditi yang diimpor Indonesia dari Turki telah dikenakan nol tarif dan sisanya 28,6% dikenakan tarif sampai dengan 5%. 28% komoditi-komoditi impor terbesar Turki dari Indonesia dikenakan tarif lebih besar dari 5% dan 30,7% komoditi Turki dikenakan tarif rata-rata 10%.
•
Perdagangan bilateral Indonesia – Turki masih subjek pengenaan tarif yang diantaranya cukup tinggi, sehingga terdapat ruang untuk melakukan penurunan tarif dari berbagai pendekatan, termasuk perjanjian preferensial bilateral, dengan mempertimbangkan komitmen multilateral dan regional dari kedua negara.
FDI Statistics Description
FDI Inward Million US$ Trend 2004 2009 2004-2009
FDI Outward Million US$ Trend (%) 2004 2009 2004-2009
Stock Indonesia Turkey
15,857.9 38,597.8
72,841.4 77,729.0
43.0 21.7
10,867.4 7,073.7
30,182.5 14,790.4
25.4 18.6
Indonesia Turkey
1,896.0 2,778.7
4,877.4 7,610.7
35.0 57.5
3,408.0 778.2
2,949.1 1,551.1
16.4 35.6
Flow
Source: UNCTAD
•
FDI inward on stock both Indonesia and Turkey reached grater than 70 billion USD, but Indonesia showing more progressive trend of 43.0% in 2009. Aliran FDI dalam saham yang masuk ke Indonesia dan Turki mencapai lebih dari 70 miliar USD, akan tetapi Indonesia menunjukan tren progresif sebesar 43% di tahun 2009.
•
Aliran FDI dalam saham yang keluar dari Indonesia lebih tinggi dari Turki secara keseluruhan.
Statistik Realisasi Penanaman Modal Asing menurut Sektor No.
Sector
Million US$ 2006
Trend (%)
2009
2006-2009
I
Primary Sector
532.4
462.6
-9.5
1
Food Crops & Plantation
351.9
122.3
-30.0
2
Livestock
18.8
2.5
-56.7
3
Forestry
31.0
-
-
4
Fishery
32.8
5.1
-54.7
5
Mining
II
Secondary Sector
6
98.0
332.7
36.8
3,619.7
3,831.1
1.3
Food Industry
354.4
552.1
10.2
7
Textile Industry
424.0
251.4
-10.4
8
Leather Goods & Footwear Industry
51.8
122.6
35.0
9
Wood Industry
58.9
62.1
0.9
10
Paper and Printing Industry
747.0
68.7
-55.0
11
Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry
264.6
1,183.1
42.6
12
Rubber and Plastic Industry
112.7
208.1
26.9
13
Non Metallic Mineral Industry
94.8
19.5
-22.0
14
955.7
654.9
-5.3
15
Metal, Machinery & Electronic Medical Preci. & Optical Instru,Industry Watches & Clock Industry Motor Vehicles & Other Transport Equip.
0.2
5.1
174.0
16
Industry
438.5
583.4
15.8
17
Other Industry
III
Tertiary Sector
18
117.1
120.1
2.2
1,839.5
6,521.2
56.6
Electricity, Gas & Water Supply
105.3
349.2
23.5
19
Construction
144.2
512.7
45.6
20
Trade & Repair
434.2
706.1
17.9
21
Hotel & Restaurant
111.5
306.5
37.3
22
Transport, Storage & Communication Real Estate, Ind. Estate & Business Activities
646.0
4,170.3
92.4
23
254.0
315.1
17.9
24
Other Services
144.4
161.2
-10.0
5,991.7
10,815.0
23.8
Total
Source: UNCTAD
Perusahaan Indonesia yang berinvestasi di Turki Name of the Company
SPA Dreams, Tourism, Textiles, Construction, Industry and Trade Limited Company Products, Foreign Trade Industry Limited Company
City Muğla
İstanbul
Manufacturing of wood and cork products (excluding furniture); manufacturing of the substance of straw and similar materials
motorcycles
Makra Makina İnşaat Gida Sanayi Ve Ticaret Ltd.Şti.
İstanbul
Samudra Pasifik Orman Ürünleri Diş Tic. Ve San. Ltd. Şti.
İstanbul
Total Customer Care Engineering, Tourism, Real Estate and
Wholesale trade and commission trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles Forestry, logging and related service activities Hotels and Restaurants
Management Consulting Limited Company Limited Company
Transportation Activities; Activities of Travel Agencies6
Commission trade and wholesale trade excluding motor vehicles and
Indosan Textiles, Plastic and Food Trade Limited Company
Wahe MM Real Estate Consulting, Investment and Trade
Sector
İstanbul
Real Estate Activities
•
Pada saat ini perkembangan investasi antara Indonesia dan Turki masih terbatas.
•
Menurut sumber data Turki, terdapat tujuh perusahaan Indonesia yang berada di pasar Turki. Total modal dari ketujuh perushaan tersebut mencapai 963.927 USD. Di sisi lain Investasi Turki di Indonesia pada periode 2005-2009 mencapai 2,4 juta USD
•
Pada tahun 2009 Turki menempati rangking ke-28 dengan nilai 1,2 juta USD, mencakup perdagangan grosir, impor dan ekspor, jasa convention, pameran dan travel. Baik Turki dan Indonesia adalah negara resipien investasi
Investasi Turki di Indonesia menurut Sektor NO 1
BUSINESS FIELDS Wholesale, import export trade
and
TOTAL COMPANY
VALUE OF INVESTMENTS (in $. 000)
6
2.040
LOCATION -
Kotamadya Jakarta Pusat dan Kotamadya Jakarta Selatan, Prov. DKI Jakarta;
-
Kab. Badung, Provinsi Bali;
-
Depok, Prov. Jawa Barat.
2
Convection services, exhibitions and incentive travel as well impesarlat
1
250
-
Kab. Badung, Provinsi Bali;
3
Furniture trade
1
200
-
Kab. Sleman, Yogyakarta;
8
2.490
industry
TOTAL
and
Provinsi
D.I.
•
Menurut data BKPM, total nilai realisasi investasi Turki di Indonesia pada tahun 2009 mencapai rangking ke-28, dan memiliki nilai 1,2 juta USD dengan dua izin usaha yang meningkat dibandingkan tahun 2008 dimana nilai investasi mencapai 3000 USD dengan satu izin usaha.
•
Terdapat delapan perushaan Turki yang telah berinvestasi di Indonesia selama periode 20052009 dengan total investasi 2,4 miliar USD. Detail dari bidang usaha adalah sebagaimana tercantum diatas.
Analisis Dampak Pengurangan Tarif terhadap impor Indonesia/Turki
Simulasi FTA Indonesia-Turki Tools : GTAP ver. 7.1
Simulasi
Deskripsi
Sim1a
Liberalisasi Tarif untuk kedua negara
Sim1b
Liberalisasi bertahap dalam 10 tahun bagi kedua negara
Focus Point : Welfare (Million USD), Trade Balance (Million USD), Terms of Trade (%), Real GDP (%), Inflation (%), Consumption (%), Investment (%), Government Expenditure (%), Export (%), Import (%), Labor demand (%)
Impact of Implementation of Bilateral FTA Indonesia-Turkey on Indonesian Macroeconomic Performance Welfare (Million USD) Sim1a
Sim1b
Trade Balance (Million USD)
Terms of Trade (%)
Sim1a
Sim1b
Sim1a
Sim1b
Sim1a
Real GDP (%) Sim1b
Inflation (%) Sim1a
Sim1b
Indonesia
36,153
6,607
0,247
2,595
0,039
0,007
0,002
0,000
0,059
0,011
Turkey
-0,648
-5,226
-13,722
-1,921
-0,005
-0,002
0,001
-0,001
-0,006
-0,004
EU_25
-14,190
-1,369
6,229
-0,130
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
-0,001
0,000
-8,725
-2,146
-1,243
-0,936
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
-0,001
0,000
Rest of World
Consumption (%) Sim1a
Investment (%)
Sim1a
Sim1b
Export (%)
Sim1b
Sim1a
0,065
0,013
0,031
0,001
0,061
0,011
0,047
Turkey
-0,006
-0,005
0,022
0,003
-0,003
-0,005
EU_25
-0,001
0,000
0,000
0,000
-0,001
ROW
-0,001
0,000
0,000
0,000
-0,001
Indonesia
Sim1b
Government Expenditure (%)
Sim1a
Sim1b
Import (%) Sim1a
Sim1b
0,008
0,097
0,014
0,092
0,019
0,087
0,017
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
Note: Sim1a: simulation of tariff elimination to zero percent Sim1b: simulation of gradual tariff elimination for 10 years
•
Indonesia diprediksi hanya mengalami kenaikan di GDP ril kurang dari 1% dalam Sim1a dan pertumbuhan GDP Turki akan berada pada level 0,001%.
•
Welfare Indonesia diperkirakan akan mengalami peningkatan signifikan berdasarkan Sim1a
Dampak Penghilangan Tarif dan Penurunan Bertahap pada Perubahan Output. (20 Commodities) No.
Sim1a Sector
? Output 0,550 0,315 0,153 0,114 0,049
No.
Sector
? Output 0,155 0,068 0,027 0,021 0,003
1 2 3 4 5
Textiles Crops nec Leather products Wearing apparel Vegetable oils and fats
6
Beverages and tobacco products
0,026
6
Crops nec Textiles Leather products Wearing apparel Public Administration, Defense, Education, Health Transport equipment nec
7 8
Construction Public Administration, Defense, Education, Health Transport equipment nec Mineral products nec Water Trade Fishing Petroleum, coal products Air transport Paddy rice Recreational and other services Insurance Electricity Processed rice
0,025 0,004
7 8
Construction Beverages and tobacco products
0,001 0,000
0,002 0,001 -0,002 -0,002 -0,006 -0,006 -0,011 -0,014 -0,015 -0,016 -0,017 -0,018
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Water Petroleum, coal products Mineral products nec Trade Air transport Recreational and other services Fishing Coal Oil Gas Insurance Electricity
0,000 -0,001 -0,001 -0,001 -0,001 -0,001 -0,002 -0,002 -0,002 -0,002 -0,002 -0,003
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1 2 3 4 5
Sim1b
0,001
•
FTA Indonesia – Turki dalam output Sim1b dan Sim1a memberikan dampak tertinggi untuk komoditi tekstil, tanaman, dan karet berupa peningkatan output sebesar 0,550%, 0,315% dan 0,153% untuk Sim1a dan 0,0155%, 0,068% dan 0,027% untuk Sim1b
•
Dampak dari Sim1a terhadap perubahan output lebih progresif daripada Sim1b
Impact of Tariff Elimination and Reduction with a gradual change on Export and Import (20 Commodities) No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Sector Crops nec Food products nec Vegetables, fruit, nuts Leather products Wearing apparel Fishing Beverages and tobacco products Bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses Vegetable oils and fats Mineral products nec Transport equipment nec Textiles Metal products Forestry Wood products Motor vehicles and parts Electronic equipment Ferrous metals Chemical, rubber, plastic products Manufactures nec
∆ Export (%) Sim1a Sim1b 4,202,936 61,162 259,257 15,901 167,365 11,588 160,105 10,509 122,538 8,709 93,177 7,736 93,080 7,692 72,821 5,829 71,916 59,295 52,226 51,904 25,927 25,400 25,313 22,534 22,227 21,921 21,750 18,350
5,651 4,937 4,382 4,362 2,357 2,324 2,304 2,083 2,039 2,033 1,994 1,704
No.
Sector
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Beverages and tobacco products Metal products Wearing apparel Manufactures nec Motor vehicles and parts Textiles Ferrous metals Mineral products nec
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Wood products Electronic equipment Dairy products Chemical, rubber, plastic products Machinery and equipment nec Crops nec Vegetable oils and fats Paper products, publishing Leather products Food products nec Vegetables, fruit, nuts Animal products nec
∆ Import (%) Sim1a Sim1b 819,067 41,598 161,014 10,697 155,668 10,456 126,975 8,995 99,662 7,590 98,109 7,396 96,710 7,385 91,507 7,071 74,101 62,800 43,146 41,010 36,603 35,492 33,377 31,378 23,867 21,450 20,042 13,674
5,925 5,130 3,809 3,591 3,442 3,230 3,017 2,823 2,221 2,026 1,961 1,357
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Hasil simulasi menunjukan konsistensi dengan dampak dalam output dimana komoditi yang mengalami meningkatan output juga mengalami peningkatan ekspor
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Perubahan dalam ekspor dipengaruhi oleh peningkatan ouput dan tingkat tarif dalam komoditi. Sayuran, buah-buahan, dan kacang adahal komoditas yang menjadi subjek penerapan tarif tinggi oleh Turki
Kerjasama Prospektif dan Rekomendasi
Priority Issues of Trade and Investment in respect to Turkey – Indonesia Relations • In view of the dynamism of the both markets, an FTA will provide the parties to secure market access and to increase their presence further in the respective markets. Without having an FTA, the parties may lose their market due to the preferential access provided for the other FTA partners of each country. • To increase investment flows between Turkey and Indonesia, the following measures may be adopted: – Organization of seminars for businessmen in Turkey and Indonesia to introduce investment opportunities in both countries; – Organization of bilateral visits to increase the awareness of businessmen with regard to the potentials of both countries, – Organization of seminars or fairs for matchmaking to promote joint investments.
Economic Co-operation • •
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Future cooperation can take the form of resources pooling from Both Sides. Possible areas of co-operation include defense industries, manufacturing technologies such as machinery and equipments, electronics, automotive, renewable energies like geothermal plants, mining, extraction of crude oil and natural gas and a wide range of services such as tourism, health and tertiary education. In all areas, priorities should be attached to human resources development such as exchange of faculties and students in tertiary education and exchange of technical experts in some other areas. Given that Indonesia and Turkey are both members of G20 and OIC, exchanges of views on certain global issues such as progress in multilateral trade negotiations, a new international financial architecture and the very complex issues related to climate change can contribute to consensus building in various international organizations.
Recommendations a.
Indonesia and Turkey constitute a significant part of the world economy with a strongly improving prospect for a sustaining acceleration of development. Both are members of the G20 and the OIC, implying opportunities to influence developments in the world economy. Governments are expected to operate more closely to raise the level of cooperation in relevant international fora.
b.
The transformation of the two economies offers further opportunities for expanding trade in goods and services as well as the investments. The JSG recommends that policy initiatives are taken to determine the ways and means for encouraging the private sector of Both Sides in exploiting the opportunities to the fullest extent.
c.
Indonesia and Turkey as being both open economies are suggested to play more active roles in and to abide with the principles and the rules of the WTO, including Article XXIV on Regional Economic Integration.
d.
The relations between Indonesia and Turkey although having been accelerated recently is proposed to be improved with a view to reach a size corresponding with the size of the two economies.
e.
Trade constitutes a major element in the Indonesia-Turkey economic relations. It is growing at an increasing pace, but is yet to be tapped at full potential in terms of magnitude and product diversity.
f.
Indonesia trades primarily with East Asia and Turkey with the European Union. The JSG underlines the presence of opportunities for further cooperation with a view to maximize the benefits of each others’ positions in their respective regions.
Recommendations (continued) g.
Indonesia and Turkey have engaged in regional trade agreements. On one hand Turkey has a Customs Union with the EU where Indonesia is also studying a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with the EU in which an FTA is projected to be among the core elements. Considering the intensive relations of Turkey and Indonesia with the EU, the JSG recommends Both Sides to exhaust every opportunity to collaborate in upgrading their relations with the EU.
h.
The JSG calls for new initiatives to raise the bilateral FDI to a satisfactory level which is currently even more limited than their bilateral trade relations, through taking advantage of a prospective CTEP Agreement.
i.
With a view to tapping more fully existing opportunities as well as to creating new opportunities for sustainable growth of output, employment, trade in goods and services, and investments, the JSG recommends to elevate the relationship into a CTEP Agreement with three core elements: Free Trade Agreement, Capacity Building and Trade and Investment Facilitation.
j.
The JSG recognizes the need on Both Sides towards improving the level of information on each other’s economies and recommends exchanging information through intensifying seminars and conferences as well as trade and investment missions in both directions. Increased contacts among traders and investors are expected to narrow the information gap.
k.
The JSG recommends Both Sides to approve the Report according to their relevant internal procedures, noting among others the opportunity presented by the forthcoming visit of the President of the Republic of Turkey to the Republic of Indonesia.
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