PERANCANGAN SISTEM PREDIKSI KEMUNGKINAN BANJIR DI DAERAH JAKARTA PUSAT DENGAN LOGIKA FUZZY
SKRIPSI
Oleh
Maria Edwardus Herman Tri Rahmanto
1200943240
Chiedryan Dennisleo
1200987822
Universitas Bina Nusantara Jakarta 2012
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PERANCANGAN SISTEM PREDIKSI KEMUNGKINAN BANJIR DI DAERAH JAKARTA PUSAT DENGAN LOGIKA FUZZY
SKRIPSI
diajukan sebagai salah satu syarat untuk gelar kesarjanaan pada School of Computer Science Jenjang Pendidikan Strata-1
Oleh
Maria Edwardus Herman Tri Rahmanto
1200943240
Chiedryan Dennisleo
1200987822
Universitas Bina Nusantara Jakarta 2012
vii
PRAKATA
Puji syukur penulis panjatkan kehadirat Tuhan Yang Maha Esa atas rahmat dan karunianya sehingga penulisan skripsi yang berjudul PERANCANGAN SISTEM PREDIKSI KEMUNGKINAN BANJIR DI DAERAH JAKARTA PUSAT DENGAN LOGIKA FUZZY dapat terselesaikan tepat pada waktunya. Skripsi ini merupakan karya ilmiah yang disusun sebagai salah satu syarat kelulusan dalam jenjang pendidikan S1 (Strata Satu) jurusan School of Computer Science di Universitas Bina Nusantara. Penulis menyadari bahwa tanpa adanya bantuan dan bimbingan dari berbagai pihak, penulisan skripsi ini tidak akan selesai. Untuk itu pada kesempatan ini penulis ingin mengucapkan terima kasih yang sebesar-besarnya kepada : 1. Tuhan Yang Maha Esa. 2. Orang tua penulis yang selama ini telah memberikan dukungan baik secara moral maupun materiil. 3. Prof. Dr. Ir. Harjanto Prabowo, MM selaku Rektor Universitas Bina Nusantara. 4. Bapak Fredy Purnomo, S.Kom., M.Kom, selaku Head of School - School of Computer Science. 5. Ibu Yen Lina Prasetio, S.Kom., M.CompSC, selaku Deputy Head of Computer Science School – Academic & Operation. 6. Bapak Michael Yoseph Ricky, S.Kom., MM, selaku Deputy Head of Computer Science School – Student & Alumni. 7. Bapak Tri Djoko Wahjono, Ir., M. Sc., selaku Dosen Pembimbing yang telah memberikan bimbingan dan pengarahan yang sangat membantu dalam penyusunan skripsi ini.
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8. Sahabat-sahabat penulis dan pihak lain yang telah membantu dan memberikan dukungan dalam penulisan skripsi ini yang tidak dapat disebutkan satu per satu.
Penulis menyadari bahwa skripsi ini masih belum sempurna mengingat keterbatasan waktu penulisan dan pengetahuan yang dimiliki penulis, untuk itu penulis mengharapkan saran serta kritik dari berbagai pihak yang sifatnya membangun dan menyempurnakan penulisan skripsi ini. Akhir kata, penulis berharap agar skripsi ini dapat memberikan manfaat bagi para pembaca dan seluruh pihak yang bersangkutan.
Jakarta, Juni 2012
Penulis
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DAFTAR ISI
Halaman Judul Luar ............................................................................................................. i Halaman Judul Dalam ......................................................................................................... ii Halaman Persetujuan Hard Cover ...................................................................................... iii Halaman Pernyataan Dewan Penguji ................................................................................. iv Halaman Pemberian Hak Cipta Non Ekslusif......................................................................v Abstrak .............................................................................................................................. vii PRAKATA....................................................................................................................... viii DAFTAR ISI........................................................................................................................x DAFTAR TABEL ..............................................................................................................xv DAFTAR GAMBAR ....................................................................................................... xvi BAB 1 PENDAHULUAN ..................................................................................................1 1.1 Latar Belakang ............................................................................................................1 1.2 Ruang Lingkup............................................................................................................3 1.3 Tujuan dan Manfaat ....................................................................................................3 1.4 Metodologi ..................................................................................................................4 1.5 Sistematika Penulisan .................................................................................................6 BAB 2 LANDASAN TEORI ...........................................................................................8 2.1 Teori Umum ...................................................................................................................8 2.1.1 Interaksi Manusia Komputer....................................................................................8 2.1.2 Delapan Aturan Emas ..............................................................................................8 2.1.3 Software Engineering ............................................................................................11 2.1.4 Model Waterfall ....................................................................................................12
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2.1.5 Unified Modeling Language .................................................................................14 2.1.5.1 Use Case Diagram..........................................................................14 2.1.5.2 Activity Diagram ...........................................................................15 2.1.5.3 Class Diagram ................................................................................17 2.1.5.4 State Transition Diagram ...............................................................18 2.1.5.5 Sequence Diagram .........................................................................19 2.1.6 Database ................................................................................................................20 2.1.6.1 Database Management System (DBMS) .......................................20 2.1.6.2 Entity Relationship Diagram .........................................................20 2.1.6.2.1 Entitas .............................................................................21 2.1.6.2.2 Relationship ....................................................................21 2.1.6.2.3 Atribut .............................................................................21 2.2 Teori Khusus ................................................................................................................22 2.2.1 Pretisipasi/Hujan .......................................................................................................22 2.2.1.1 Pengertian ......................................................................................22 2.2.1.2 Curah Hujan ...................................................................................22 2.2.1.3 Penakar Hujan ................................................................................23 2.2.2 Daerah Aliran Sungai .............................................................................................26 2.2.3 Logika Fuzzy ..........................................................................................................27 2.2.3.1 Pengertian Logika Fuzzy ................................................................27 2.2.3.2 Alasan Digunakannya Logika Fuzzy .............................................28 2.2.3.3 Himpunan Fuzzy ............................................................................29 2.2.3.4 Fungsi Keanggotaan.......................................................................31 2.2.3.4.1 Representasi Linear ..........................................................31 2.2.3.4.2 Representasi Kurva Segitiga ............................................32
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2.2.3.4.3 Representasi Kurva Trapesium ........................................33 2.2.3.4.4 Representasi Kurva Bentuk Bahu ....................................34 2.2.3.4.5 Representasi Kurva-S.......................................................35 2.2.3.4.6 Representasi Kurva Bentuk Lonceng (Bell Curve) ..........37 2.2.3.5 Metode Mamdani ...........................................................................42 BAB 3
ANALISIS DAN PERANCANGAN ...............................................................49
3.1 Gambaran Umum BMKG ............................................................................................49 3.1.1 Sejarah Singkat BMKG ....................................................................49 3.1.2 Latar Belakang BMKG .....................................................................50 3.1.3 Tugas dan Fungsi BMKG .................................................................50 3.1.4 Visi dan Misi BMKG ........................................................................52 3.1.5 Tujuan BMKG ..................................................................................53 3.1.6 Susunan Organisasi BMKG ..............................................................53 3.2 Gambaran Umum Derpartemen Pekerjaan Umum ......................................................54 3.2.1 Sejarah Singkat PU ...........................................................................54 3.2.2 Tugas dan Fungsi ..............................................................................54 3.2.3 Visi dan Misi Departemen Pekerjaan Umum ...................................55 3.2.4 Susunan Organisasi Departemen Pekerjaan Umum .........................57 3.3 Analisis Permasalahan .................................................................................................58 3.4 Usulan Pemecahan Masalah ........................................................................................58 3.5 Algoritma Hasil Prediksi..............................................................................................59 3.6 Input .............................................................................................................................60 3.7 Sistem Inferensi Fuzzy .................................................................................................61 3.7.1 Aplikasi Fungsi Implikasi .................................................................61 3.8 Struktur Menu ..............................................................................................................69
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3.9 Perancangan Database .................................................................................................70 3.9.1 Spesifikasi dari File Data ..................................................................70 3.10 Perancangan Aplikasi.................................................................................................72 3.10.1 Entity Relationship Diagram ..........................................................73 3.10.2 Use Case Diagram...........................................................................74 3.10.3 State Diagram..................................................................................78 3.10.4 Activity Diagram ............................................................................80 3.10.5 Class Diagram .................................................................................82 3.10.6 Sequence Diagram ..........................................................................82 3.11 Perancangan Layar .....................................................................................................83 3.11.1 Perancangan Layar Menu Utama ....................................................84 3.11.2 Perancangan Layar Menu Help .......................................................85 3.11.3 Perancangan Layar Input Data ........................................................86 3.11.4 Perancangan Layar Hasil ................................................................87 BAB 4
IMPLEMENTASI DAN EVALUASI .............................................................62
4.1 Spesifikasi Sistem ........................................................................................................88 4.1.1 Spesifikasi Perangkat Keras ..............................................................88 4.1.2 Spesifikasi Perangkat Lunak .............................................................89 4.2 Sistem Inference Fuzzy ................................................................................................89 4.3 Prosedur Penggunaan ...................................................................................................91 4.4 Tampilan Layar ............................................................................................................92 4.4.1 Halaman Utama ................................................................................93 4.4.2 Halaman menu Help .........................................................................94 4.4.3 Halaman menu Input data ................................................................94 4.4.4 Messages Box Hasil .........................................................................96
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4.5 Evaluasi ........................................................................................................................96 BAB 5
SIMPULAN DAN SARAN...............................................................................99
5.1 Simpulan ...................................................................................................................99 5.2 Saran .........................................................................................................................99 DAFTAR PUSTAKA RIWAYAT HIDUP LAMPIRAN SURAT SURVEI
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DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 3.1 Tabel Curah Hujan .............................................................................................39 Tabel 3.2 Tabel Debit Sungai ............................................................................................39 Tabel 3.3 Tabel Hari ..........................................................................................................40 Tabel 3.4 Tabel Hasil .........................................................................................................40 Tabel 3.5 Tabel definisi use case Menu Help ....................................................................44 Tabel 3.6 Tabel definisi use case Input atau Import Data .................................................45 Tabel 3.7 Tabel definisi use case Lihat Hasil ....................................................................47 Tabel 4.1 Tabel evaluasi dengan PC dengan sistem operasi Windows XP .......................64 Tabel 4.2 Tabel evaluasi dengan PC dengan sistem operasi Windows 7 ..........................65
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DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 2.1 Model Waterfall ...............................................................................................9 Gambar 2.2 Recording Rain Gauge ...................................................................................14 Gambar 2.3 Recording Bucket Rain Gauge .......................................................................15 Gambar 2.4 Weighing Type Rain Gauge ...........................................................................16 Gambar 2.5 Float Type Rain Gauge ..................................................................................17 Gambar 2.6 Daerah Aliran Sungai .....................................................................................19 Gambar 2.7 Peta Topografi ................................................................................................20 Gambar 2.8 Pembagian DAS .............................................................................................21 Gambar 2.9 Susunan Organisasi BMKG ...........................................................................30 Gambar 2.10 Susunan Organisasi Departemen Pekerjaan Umum.....................................34 Gambar 3.1 Flowchart algoritma perhitungan persentase banjir .......................................37 Gambar 3.2 Entity Relationship Diagram .........................................................................41 Gambar 3.3 Struktur menu aplikasi ...................................................................................42 Gambar 3.4 Use case diagram ...........................................................................................43 Gambar 3.5 State Diagram menu utama............................................................................47 Gambar 3.6 State Diagram menu help ..............................................................................48 Gambar 3.7 State Diagram input data ...............................................................................48 Gambar 3.8 Activity Diagram menu help ..........................................................................49 Gambar 3.9 Activity Diagram input data ...........................................................................50
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Gambar 3.10 Class Diagram ..............................................................................................52 Gambar 3.11 Sequence Diagram Sistem ...........................................................................53 Gambar 3.12 Perancangan Layar Menu Utama .................................................................54 Gambar 3.13 Perancangan Layar menu Help ....................................................................55 Gambar 3.14 Perancangan Layar Input data ......................................................................56 Gambar 3.15 Perancangan Layar Hasil .............................................................................57 Gambar 4.1 Menjalankan aplikasi Sistem Prediksi Banjir ................................................59 Gambar 4.2 Halaman utama ..............................................................................................60 Gambar 4.3 Halaman Menu Help ......................................................................................61 Gambar 4.4 Halaman Menu Input data ..............................................................................64 Gambar 4.5 Hasil Persentase Prediksi Banjir ....................................................................65
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