LAMPIRAN 1. Program Estimasi Model EkonomiRumahtangga PetaniKedelaiMetode 2SLS /*Program SAS913 13022012 UjianTerbuka 31012012*/ Title01 ProSAS 13022012 UT31012012 By : RMS; Data Satu; Input NO LAT LAP PRO PKpPKt JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ JR BS BTK BUK; Label NO = No mo rResponden LAT = Luas Areal Tanam(Ha) LAP = Luas Areal Panen(Ha) PRO = ProduksiKedelai(Kg) PKp = Prodtvts.KPnn(Kg/Ha) PKt = Prodtvts.KTnm(Kg/Ha) JB = Jmlh BenihKedelai(Kg) JPU = JmlhPupuk Urea (Kg) JPS = JmlhPp k.Sp 36/Tsp(Kg) JPK = JmlhPp k.Kcl/Za (Kg) JO = JmlhObat/Pestsd(Lt) JZ = Ju mlah ZPT/ Ppc (Lt) JR = Jmlh Rhizo+ (Sachet) BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp) BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp) BUK = BiayaUt.Kedelai(Rp ); Cards; Data Input Label
Dua; NO TKDK TKLK TKK TKDN TKDL TKD TKL TK CK TKLN TKLL CKL; NO = No mo rResponden TKDK = TK DlmKlrg Kdl (HOK) TKLK = TK LuarKlrgKd l(HOK) TKK = TenagaKerjaKd l(HOK) TKDN = TKDlmKlgNonKdl(HOK) TKDL = TKDlmKlgNUtLain(HOK) TKD = TKDalamKeluarga(HOK) TKL = TK LuarKeluarga(HOK) TK = TenagaKerjaTtl(HOK) CK = CurahKerjaTotal(HOK) TKLN = TKLrKlrgNonKd l(HOK) TKLL = TKLrKlgNUtLain(HOK) CKL = CurahKerjaLrKlg(HOK);
Cards; Data Input Label
Tiga; NO BB BP BO BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT PNK PNL PRT; NO = No mo rResponden BB = BiayaBenih (Rp) BP = BiayaPupuk (Rp) BO = BiayaObat/Pests(Rp) BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp) BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp) BUK = BiayaUt.Kedelai(Rp ) PUK = PenerimaanUt.Kd l(Rp) PUKT = PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) PNK = PndapatnNonKdl (Rp)
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PNL PRT
= PndapatnNUt Lain(Rp) = PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp);
Cards; Data Input Label
Empat; NO PRT PD KPT KNP KT IE IH IS PBB KL; NO = No mo rResponden PRT = PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp) PD = PndptnDisposable(Rp) KPT = KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp) KNP = KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp) KT = KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp) IE = InvestasiPdidikn(Rp) IH = InvestasiKsehatn(Rp) IS = InvestasiSmbrDy(Rp) PBB = PajakBu miBngn (Rp) KL = Konsumsi Lain (Rp );
Cards; Data Input Label
Lima; NO IS IP INV TA B KRE KT BRT PRO KK KJ; NO = No mo rResponden IS = InvestasiSmbrdy(Rp) IP = InvestasiProPert(Rp) INV = InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp) TAB = Tabungan (Rp) KRE = KreditPertanian(Rp) KT = Konsumsi Total (Rp) BRT = Pengeluaran RTTtl(Rp) PRO = ProduksiKedelai(Kg) KK = KonsumsiKedelai(Kg) KJ = Kd lJual/Su rplusP(Kg);
Cards; Data Input Label
Enam; NO HK HG HJ HS HU HKT HKH HTpHTh HHK HTI ; NO = No mo rResponden HK = HargaKedelai(Rp/Kg) HG = HargaGabahKP(Rp/Kg) HJ = HargaJagung (Rp/Kg) HS = HargaSingkong(Rp/Kg) HU = HargaUbiJalar(Rp/Kg) HKT = HargaKacngTnh(Rp/Kg) HKH = HargaKacangHj(Rp/Kg) HTp = HargaTempe(Rp/0.5Kg) HTh = HargaTahu(Rp/0.5Kg) HHK = Hrg Rata2HslKebun(Rp) HTI = Hrg Rata2Tnk/Ikan(Rp);
Cards; Data Input Label
Tujuh; NO HB HPU HPS HPK HO HZ HR UTKL HPH JPH; NO = No mo rResponden HB = HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg) HPU = HargaPpk.Urea(Rp/Kg) HPS = Hrg PSp36/Tsp(Rp/Kg)
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HPK = HargaPKcl/Za(Rp/Kg) HO = HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt) HZ = HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt) HR = HargaRh izo+(Rp/Sch) UTKL = UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK) HPH = Hg PHijau/Kdng(Rp/Kg) JPH = JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg); Cards; Data Input Label
Delapan; NO SB UM ED AKK A K AT PBB KL LAT LAP; NO = No mo rResponden SB = Su kuBungaKredit (%/T) UM = UmurPetani (Th) ED = Lama Pendidikan (Th) AKK = AngktnKerjaKlg(Orng) AK = AnggotaKlrg (Orang) AT = Asset Total (Rp) PBB = PajakBu miBngnn(Rp) KL = KonsumsLainTunai(Rp) LAT = Luas Areal Tanam(Ha) LAP = Luas Areal Panen(Ha);
Cards; Data Input Label
Sembilan; NO KKB KKP KKL KK TKLN TKLL CKL DA DI DG DS; NO = No mo rResponden KKB = KonsumsiKdlBenih(Kg) KKP = KonsumsiKdlPngn(Kg ) KKL = KonsumsiKdlLain(Kg ) KK = KonsumsiKedelai(Kg) TKLN = TKLuarKlgNonKd l(HOK) TKLL = TKLuarKlNUt Lain(HOK) CKL = CurahKerjaLrKlg(HOK) DA = Du mmyArea "MilikSdr=1" DI = Du mmyIrigasi"Teknis=1" DG = Du mmy Gender "Laki2=1" DS = Du mmySkill "TamatSD=1";
Cards; Options NoDateNoNu mberNo Center; Data DELE; Set SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTu juhDelapan Semb ilan; Merge SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTu juhDelapan Semb ilan; BS = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR)); BTK = (TKLK)*(UTKL); PUK = (PRO)*(HK); PUKT = PUK - BS - BTK; PKp = (PRO)/(LAP); Hkpu = (Hk/Hpu); Hkps = (Hk/Hps); Hkp k = (Hk/Hpk); If DA>0 Then DA =1; Else DA=0; If DI>0 Then DI=1; Else DI=0; If DG>0 Then DG=1; Else DG=0; If DS>0 Then DS=1; Else DS=0;
200
Label
DA = Du mmyArea "MilikSdr=1" DI = Du mmyIrigasi"Teknis=1" DG = Du mmy Gender "Laki2=1" DS = Du mmySkill "TamatSD=1" Hkpu = RasioHgKd l/HgPUrea Hkps = RasioHgKd l/HgPSpTsp Hkp k = RasioHgKd l/HgPKclZa BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp) BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp) PUK = PenerimaanUt.Kd l(Rp) PUKT = PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) PKp = ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha);
RUN; Title02 Prosedur SYSLIN ProSAS 13022012; ProcSyslin Data=DELE 2SLS OutEst=Kedelai Simple; Endogenous LAP PRO JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ JR TKDK TKLK TKDN TKDL PNK PNL KPT KNP IE IH IP TAB KRE TKK TKD TKL TK CK BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT PRT PD KT IS INV BRT KJ PKp; Instruments HK HG HJ HS HU HKT HKH HB HPU HPS HPK HO HZ HR HTp HTh HTI HHK UTKL UM ED AKK AK AT SB PBB KL KK TKLN TKLL CKL JPH Da Di Dg Ds Hkpu Hkps Hkp k ; ; LAP: Model LAP = HK HJ hkhhpu AT JB TKDK PRT / DW; PRO: Model PRO = HB hps HZ HR LAP KRE PUK / DW; JB: Model JB = HB HZ HR LAP KRE PUK / DW; JPU: Model JPU = HKPU HB HO HZ jph PNK pnl PUK / DW; JPS: Model JPS = HKPS HB HZ da LAP TKLK PNK / DW; JPK: Model JPK = hkp khb HO hzjph lap PNK PUK / DW; JO: Model JO = HO HB h z HR jph di PNK PUK / DW; JZ: Model JZ = HZ hb HO HR PNK PUK / DW; JR: Model JR = HR hbhpu HO h z JPH LAP prt / DW; TKDK: Model TKDK = utkl UM ED AKK DG LAP JPS TA B / DW; TKLK: Model TKLK = UTKL u m ed DS tkdl JPS PUK / DW; TKDN: Model TKDN = utklhkakk tklk PNK tab / DW; TKDL: Model TKDL = utkl UM ED tklk PNL PUKT / DW; PNK: Model PNK = HKT PNL pukt TAB KRE /Noint DW; PNL: Model PNL = HTP hti at PNK PUKT TA B KRE / Noint DW; KPT: Model KPT = HJ AK KK KNP KRE / DW; KNP: Model KNP = UM AK KPT PNL KT / Noint DW; IE: Model IE = HK hshuhtihhk um edak IP pnl INV / DW; IH: Model IH = hg hth IP KRE INV / DW; IP: Model IP = AT IS pro PRT /No int DW; TAB: Model TA B = SB hti PD / Noint DW; KRE: Model KRE = SB HPU HO JPH tab JB KT IH /Noint DW; ; TKK: Identity TKK = TKDK + TKLK; TKD: Identity TKD = TKDK + TKDN + TKDL; TKL: Identity TKL = TKLK + TKLN + TKLL; TK: Identity TK = TKD + TKL; CK: Identity CK = TKD + CKL;
201
BS: BTK: BUK: PUK: PUKT: PRT: PD: KT: IS: INV: BRT: KJ: PKp: RUN; ;
Identity Identity Identity Identity Identity Identity Identity Identity Identity Identity Identity Identity Identity
BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT PRT PD KT IS INV BRT KJ PKp
= BS + 0; = BTK + 0; = BS + BTK; = PUK + 0; = PUK - BUK; = PUKT + PNK + PNL; = PRT - PBB; = KPT + KNP + KL; = IE + IH; = IS + IP; = KT + INV; = PRO - KK; = PKp + 0;
LAMPIRAN 2. HasilEstimasi Model EkonomiRumahtangga PetaniKedelaiMetode 2SLS ProSAS 13022012 Ujian Terbuka 31012012 By: RMS. Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LAP Dependent Variable LAP Label Luas Areal Panen(Ha) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square Model 8 76.99921 9.624901 Error 241 17.01830 0.070615 Corrected Total 249 98.00149 Root MSE 0.26574 R-Square 0.81899 Dependent Mean 0.65980 Adj R-Sq 0.81298 CoeffVar 40.27516 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Intercept 1 0.066704 0.351519 0.19 HK 1 0.000072 0.000029 2.47 HJ 1 -0.00022 0.000065 -3.45 HKH 1 -0.00002 0.000028 -0.87 HPU 1 -0.00017 0.000263 -0.66 AT 1 2.55E-9 4.55E-10 5.60 JB 1 0.010007 0.000990 10.11 TKDK 1 0.002492 0.000401 6.22 PRT 1 1.66E-8 4.838E-9 3.43 Durbin-Watson 1.439768 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.277378
F Value 136.30
Pr> F <.0001
Variable Pr> |t | Label 0.8497 Intercept 0.0143 HargaKedelai(Rp/Kg ) 0.0007 HargaJagung (Rp/Kg) 0.3827 HargaKacangHj(Rp/Kg) 0.5125 HargaPpk.Urea(Rp/Kg) <.0001 Asset Total (Rp) <.0001 Jmlh BenihKedelai(Kg) <.0001 TK DlmKlrgKdl (HOK) 0.0007 PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp)
204
Model PRO Dependent Variable PRO Label ProduksiKedelai(Kg) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F Model 7 1.6709E8 23870168 183.23 <.0001 Error 242 31525801 130271.9 Corrected Total 249 2.2944E8 Root MSE 360.93200 R-Square 0.84127 Dependent Mean 853.10400 Adj R-Sq 0.83668 CoeffVar 42.30809 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label Intercept 1 1168.302 320.0019 3.65 0.0003 Intercept HB 1 -0.17114 0.038576 -4.44 <.0001 HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg) HPS 1 -0.19309 0.194336 -0.99 0.3214 Hrg PSp36/Tsp(Rp/Kg) HZ 1 -0.00246 0.001524 -1.62 0.1076 HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt) HR 1 -0.09223 0.027695 -3.33 0.0010 HargaRh izo+(Rp/Sch) LAP 1 250.1141 115.9366 2.16 0.0320 Luas Areal Panen(Ha) KRE 1 0.000458 0.000126 3.64 0.0003 KreditPertanian(Rp) PUK 1 0.000274 0.000034 8.14 <.0001 Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp) Durbin-Watson 1.61638 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.163261
Model JB Dependent Variable JB Label Jmlh BenihKedelai(Kg) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Model 6 185909.2 30984.86 152.85 Error 243 49258.15 202.7084 Corrected Total 249 229920.7 Root MSE 14.23757 R-Square 0.79054 Dependent Mean 31.92800 Adj R-Sq 0.78537 CoeffVar 44.59274 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Intercept 1 50.34381 6.438580 7.82 <.0001 HB 1 -0.00579 0.001520 -3.81 0.0002 HZ 1 -0.00019 0.000059 -3.22 0.0015 HR 1 -0.00634 0.001050 -6.04 <.0001 LAP 1 20.97170 4.425472 4.74 <.0001 KRE 1 7.06E-6 4.95E-6 1.43 0.1551 PUK 1 6.546E-6 1.266E-6 5.17 <.0001 Durbin-Watson 1.35467 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.314543
Pr> F <.0001
Label Intercept HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg) HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt) HargaRh izo+(Rp/Sch) Luas Areal Panen(Ha) KreditPertanian(Rp) Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp)
205
Model JPU Dependent Variable JPU Label JmlhPupuk Urea (Kg) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F Model 8 221451.1 27681.39 10.92 <.0001 Error 241 611111.6 2535.733 Corrected Total 249 845947.5 Root MSE 50.35606 R-Square 0.26599 Dependent Mean 49.22400 Adj R-Sq 0.24162 CoeffVar 102.29982 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label Intercept 1 73.23491 18.01896 4.06 <.0001 Intercept Hkpu 1 10.53485 5.754650 1.83 0.0684 RasioHgKd l/HgPUrea HB 1 -0.01359 0.005822 -2.33 0.0204 HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg) HO 1 -0.00050 0.000139 -3.61 0.0004 HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt ) HZ 1 -0.00055 0.000215 -2.54 0.0118 HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt) JPH 1 0.004604 0.004616 1.00 0.3196 JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg ) PNK 1 4.236E-6 1.504E-6 2.82 0.0052 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) PNL 1 1.128E-6 1.265E-6 0.89 0.3734 PndapatnNUtLain (Rp ) PUK 1 7.359E-6 2.143E-6 3.43 0.0007 Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp) Durbin-Watson 1.677979 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.054992
Model JPS Dependent Variable JPS Label JmlhPp k.Sp 36/Tsp(Kg) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F Model 7 111436.8 15919.54 13.89 <.0001 Error 242 277441.2 1146.451 Corrected Total 249 399138.7 Root MSE 33.85928 R-Square 0.28656 Dependent Mean 35.41600 Adj R-Sq 0.26592 CoeffVar 95.60448 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Label Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Intercept 1 -0.66949 12.26134 -0.05 0.9565 Intercept Hkps 1 11.86229 5.619310 2.11 0.0358 RasioHgKd l/HgPSpTsp HB 1 -0.00573 0.003970 -1.44 0.1501 HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg) HZ 1 -0.00035 0.000148 -2.40 0.0171 HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt) DA 1 4.111293 4.736468 0.87 0.3862 Du mmyAreaMilikSdr=1 LAP 1 13.69883 6.933913 1.98 0.0493 Luas Areal Panen(Ha) TKLK 1 0.131396 0.042733 3.07 0.0023 TK LuarKlrgKd l(HOK) PNK 1 2.203E-6 1.212E-6 1.82 0.0703 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) Durbin-Watson 1.788806 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.044793
206
Model JPK Dependent Variable JPK Label JmlhPp k.Kcl/Za (Kg ) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F Model 8 85252.21 10656.53 15.81 <.0001 Error 241 162479.7 674.1897 Corrected Total 249 244065.8 Root MSE 25.96516 R-Square 0.34413 Dependent Mean 20.21200 Adj R-Sq 0.32236 CoeffVar 128.46409 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label Intercept 1 8.786600 9.349009 0.94 0.3482 Intercept Hkp k 1 1.353340 4.249404 0.32 0.7504 RasioHgKd l/HgPKclZa HB 1 -0.00254 0.003052 -0.83 0.4062 HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg) HO 1 -0.00006 0.000071 -0.89 0.3750 HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt ) HZ 1 -0.00014 0.000114 -1.21 0.2265 HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt) JPH 1 0.001978 0.002378 0.83 0.4065 JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg ) LAP 1 9.972467 9.158262 1.09 0.2773 Luas Areal Panen(Ha) PNK 1 2.379E-6 9.444E-7 2.52 0.0124 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) PUK 1 3.465E-6 2.104E-6 1.65 0.1008 Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp) Durbin-Watson 1.570851 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.135812
Model JO Dependent Variable JO Label Jmlh Obat/Pestsd(Lt) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Model 8 267.5056 33.43820 14.91 Error 241 540.4225 2.242417 Corrected Total 249 794.7492 Root MSE 1.49747 R-Square 0.33110 Dependent Mean 1.21560 Adj R-Sq 0.30890 CoeffVar 123.18774 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Intercept 1 3.927157 0.871148 4.51 <.0001 HO 1 -0.00002 4.138E-6 -4.90 <.0001 HB 1 -0.00032 0.000166 -1.90 0.0582 HZ 1 -7.82E-6 6.433E-6 -1.22 0.2252 HR 1 -0.00033 0.000129 -2.57 0.0108 JPH 1 0.000081 0.000137 0.59 0.5557 DI 1 0.271045 0.294409 0.92 0.3582 PNK 1 8.193E-8 4.641E-8 1.77 0.0788 PUK 1 3.326E-7 6.409E-8 5.19 <.0001 Durbin-Watson 1.78933 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.07583
Pr> F <.0001
Label Intercept HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt ) HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg) HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt) HargaRh izo+(Rp/Sch) JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg ) Du mmyIrigasiTeknis=1 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp)
207
Model JZ Dependent Variable JZ Label Jumlah ZPT/Ppc (Lt) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Model 6 342.2634 57.04390 16.45 Error 243 842.7477 3.468098 Corrected Total 249 1146.934 Root MSE 1.86228 R-Square 0.28883 Dependent Mean 1.18640 Adj R-Sq 0.27127 CoeffVar 156.96923 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Intercept 1 3.282425 0.892788 3.68 0.0003 HZ 1 -0.00003 7.923E-6 -3.63 0.0003 HB 1 -0.00023 0.000206 -1.13 0.2595 HO 1 -0.00001 4.939E-6 -2.67 0.0082 HR 1 -0.00032 0.000127 -2.52 0.0124 PNK 1 2.112E-7 5.483E-8 3.85 0.0002 PUK 1 2.826E-7 7.913E-8 3.57 0.0004 Durbin-Watson 1.646834 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.017281
Pr> F <.0001
Label Intercept HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt) HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg) HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt ) HargaRh izo+(Rp/Sch) PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp)
Model JR Dependent Variable JR Label Jmlh Rhizo+ (Sachet) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F Model 8 220.2451 27.53064 9.68 <.0001 Error 241 685.5052 2.844420 Corrected Total 249 875.4240 Root MSE 1.68654 R-Square 0.24316 Dependent Mean 1.95200 Adj R-Sq 0.21804 CoeffVar 86.40066 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label Intercept 1 3.610284 1.996962 1.81 0.0719 Intercept -1.29 0.1989 HargaRh izo+(Rp/Sch) HR 1 -0.00015 0.000115 HB 1 -0.00014 0.000182 -0.75 0.4529 HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg) HPU 1 -0.00126 0.001624 -0.78 0.4387 HargaPpk.Urea(Rp/Kg) HO 1 -8.4E-6 4.674E-6 -1.80 0.0737 HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt ) HZ 1 -5.03E-6 7.306E-6 -0.69 0.4916 HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt) JPH 1 0.000429 0.000156 2.76 0.0063 JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg ) LAP 1 1.228472 0.334269 3.68 0.0003 Luas Areal Panen(Ha) PRT 1 4.458E-8 3.514E-8 1.27 0.2058 PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp) Durbin-Watson 2.022777 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.13027
208
Model TKDK Dependent Variable TKDK Label TK DlmKlrgKdl (HOK) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F Model 8 258911.9 32363.98 9.27 <.0001 Error 241 841474.0 3491.593 Corrected Total 249 1084800 Root MSE 59.08971 R-Square 0.23529 Dependent Mean 102.49600 Adj R-Sq 0.20991 CoeffVar 57.65074 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label Intercept 1 93.41927 27.85522 3.35 0.0009 Intercept UTKL 1 -0.00141 0.002389 -0.59 0.5558 UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK) UM 1 -0.75052 0.395901 -1.90 0.0592 UmurPetani (Th ) ED 1 -3.66962 1.374443 -2.67 0.0081 Lama Pendidikan (Th) AKK 1 5.591721 2.898532 1.93 0.0549 AngktnKerjaKlg(Orng) DG 1 23.91475 11.63580 2.06 0.0409 Du mmy Gender Laki2=1 LAP 1 29.65159 11.97117 2.48 0.0139 Luas Areal Panen(Ha) JPS 1 0.384268 0.221722 1.73 0.0844 JmlhPp k.Sp 36/Tsp(Kg) TAB 1 1.367E-6 1.059E-6 1.29 0.1983 Tabungan (Rp) Durbin-Watson 1.22171 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.373101
Model TKLK Dependent Variable TKLK Label TK LuarKlrgKd l(HOK) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F Model 7 395359.4 56479.91 11.47 <.0001 Error 242 1191913 4925.260 Corrected Total 249 1428711 Root MSE 70.18020 R-Square 0.24908 Dependent Mean 160.75200 Adj R-Sq 0.22736 CoeffVar 43.65743 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label Intercept 1 173.6533 30.88286 5.62 <.0001 Intercept UTKL 1 -0.00545 0.002770 -1.97 0.0502 UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK) UM 1 -0.38456 0.455396 -0.84 0.3993 UmurPetani (Th ) ED 1 -1.49175 1.798996 -0.83 0.4078 Lama Pendidikan (Th) DS 1 25.28731 12.90813 1.96 0.0513 Du mmySkillTamatSD=1 TKDL 1 -0.09211 0.094922 -0.97 0.3328 TKDlmKlgNUt Lain(HOK) JPS 1 1.173357 0.239377 4.90 <.0001 JmlhPp k.Sp 36/Tsp(Kg) PUK 1 5.371E-6 2.901E-6 1.85 0.0653 Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp) Durbin-Watson 1.610027 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.115075
209
Model TKDN Dependent Variable TKDN Label TKDlmKlgNonKdl(HOK) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F Model 6 348074.9 58012.48 10.81 <.0001 Error 243 1303675 5364.917 Corrected Total 249 1614578 Root MSE 73.24559 R-Square 0.21073 Dependent Mean 142.01600 Adj R-Sq 0.19124 CoeffVar 51.57559 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label Intercept 1 90.92766 28.26124 3.22 0.0015 Intercept UTKL 1 -0.00237 0.003088 -0.77 0.4444 UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK) HK 1 0.008825 0.008036 1.10 0.2732 HargaKedelai(Rp/Kg ) AKK 1 3.764380 3.383508 1.11 0.2670 AngktnKerjaKlg(Orng) TKLK 1 -0.08005 0.089692 -0.89 0.3730 TK LuarKlrgKd l(HOK) PNK 1 9.348E-6 2.394E-6 3.90 0.0001 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) TAB 1 1.353E-6 1.383E-6 0.98 0.3290 Tabungan (Rp) Durbin-Watson 1.283914 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.357558
Model TKDL Dependent Variable TKDL Label TKDlmKlgNUt Lain(HOK) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Model 6 361364.4 60227.40 11.74 Error 243 1246706 5130.479 Corrected Total 249 1426037 Root MSE 71.62736 R-Square 0.22472 Dependent Mean 106.41200 Adj R-Sq 0.20558 CoeffVar 67.31136 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Intercept 1 115.1008 32.43410 3.55 0.0005 UTKL 1 -0.00112 0.002960 -0.38 0.7047 0.448221 -1.43 0.1553 -0.63897 UM 1 ED 1 -4.06150 1.653320 -2.46 0.0147 TKLK 1 -0.09087 0.082401 -1.10 0.2712 PNL 1 0.000014 1.882E-6 7.66 <.0001 PUKT 1 5.206E-6 2.862E-6 1.82 0.0702 Durbin-Watson 2.096008 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.0517
Pr> F <.0001
Label Intercept UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK) UmurPetani (Th ) Lama Pendidikan (Th) TK LuarKlrgKd l(HOK) PndapatnNUtLain (Rp ) PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp)
210
Model PNK Dependent Variable PNK Label PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Model 5 6.555E15 1.311E15 162.47 Error 245 1.977E15 8.069E12 UncorrectedTotal 250 8.268E15 Root MSE 2840569.91 R-Square 0.76828 Dependent Mean 4267716.82 Adj R-Sq 0.76356 CoeffVar 66.55948 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | HKT 1 225.3152 141.1018 1.60 0.1116 PNL 1 -0.18535 0.074212 -2.50 0.0132 PUKT 1 -0.11844 0.157170 -0.75 0.4518 TAB 1 0.421136 0.044515 9.46 <.0001 KRE 1 4.800250 0.765457 6.27 <.0001 Durbin-Watson 1.700394 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.144237
Pr> F <.0001
Label HargaKacngTnh(Rp/Kg) PndapatnNUtLain (Rp ) PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) Tabungan (Rp) KreditPertanian(Rp)
Model PNL Dependent Variable PNL Label PndapatnNUtLain (Rp ) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F Model 7 6.395E15 9.135E14 81.38 <.0001 Error 243 2.728E15 1.123E13 UncorrectedTotal 250 1.027E16 Root MSE 3350491.76 R-Square 0.70098 Dependent Mean 4751787.20 Adj R-Sq 0.69237 CoeffVar 70.51014 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label Variable DF HTp 1 1683.705 302.0322 5.57 <.0001 HargaTempe(Rp/0.5Kg) HTI 1 0.481391 0.694317 0.69 0.4888 Hrg Rata2Tnk/Ikan(Rp) AT 1 0.005364 0.006305 0.85 0.3958 Asset Total (Rp) PNK 1 -0.33056 0.132951 -2.49 0.0136 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) PUKT 1 -0.47292 0.211564 -2.24 0.0263 PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) TAB 1 0.426002 0.070642 6.03 <.0001 Tabungan (Rp) KRE 1 1.616235 1.205117 1.34 0.1811 KreditPertanian(Rp) Durbin-Watson 1.998463 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.00688
211
Model KPT Dependent Variable KPT Label KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Model 5 7.168E10 1.434E10 33.09 Error 244 1.057E11 4.3325E8 Corrected Total 249 1.678E11 Root MSE 20814.7596 R-Square 0.40407 Dependent Mean 25458.5600 Adj R-Sq 0.39186 CoeffVar 81.75938 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Intercept 1 15819.43 7394.888 2.14 0.0334 HJ 1 -7.51611 4.704050 -1.60 0.1114 AK 1 1583.559 1078.094 1.47 0.1432 KK 1 376.3395 48.47550 7.76 <.0001 KNP 1 -0.00304 0.001079 -2.82 0.0052 KRE 1 0.015452 0.006903 2.24 0.0261 Durbin-Watson 1.520251 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.232679
Pr> F <.0001
Label Intercept HargaJagung (Rp/Kg) AnggotaKlrg (Orang) KonsumsiKedelai(Kg) KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp) KreditPertanian(Rp)
Model KNP Dependent Variable KNP Label KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F Model 5 8.858E15 1.772E15 1408.68 <.0001 Error 245 3.081E14 1.258E12 UncorrectedTotal 250 9.717E15 Root MSE 1121449.96 R-Square 0.96638 Dependent Mean 5785780.00 Adj R-Sq 0.96570 CoeffVar 19.38287 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label UM 1 15917.22 4620.937 3.44 0.0007 UmurPetani (Th ) AK 1 211566.5 51044.27 4.14 <.0001 AnggotaKlrg (Orang) KPT 1 -7.00978 3.899695 -1.80 0.0735 KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp) PNL 1 0.062295 0.027446 2.27 0.0241 PndapatnNUtLain (Rp ) 0.030000 16.29 <.0001 KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp) 1 0.488622 KT Durbin-Watson 1.917981 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.037948
212
Model IE Dependent Variable IE Label InvestasiPdidikn(Rp) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Model 11 7.112E11 6.466E10 51.32 Error 238 2.999E11 1.2599E9 Corrected Total 249 2.627E12 Root MSE 35495.2215 R-Square 0.70343 Dependent Mean 64235.4000 Adj R-Sq 0.68972 CoeffVar 55.25804 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Intercept 1 -74899.8 21011.88 -3.56 0.0004 HK 1 11.02389 4.088518 2.70 0.0075 HS 1 17.55448 21.90169 0.80 0.4236 HU 1 11.21535 18.58377 0.60 0.5467 HTI 1 0.004974 0.007300 0.68 0.4963 HHK 1 1.106450 2.074445 0.53 0.5943 UM 1 179.7959 229.3207 0.78 0.4338 ED 1 1094.343 838.6213 1.30 0.1932 AK 1 1392.739 1790.101 0.78 0.4373 IP 1 -0.81980 0.045379 -18.07 <.0001 PNL 1 0.000898 0.000963 0.93 0.3524 INV 1 0.817995 0.045067 18.15 <.0001 Durbin-Watson 2.02147 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.01207
Pr> F <.0001
Label Intercept HargaKedelai(Rp/Kg ) HargaSingkong(Rp/Kg) HargaUb iJalar(Rp/Kg) Hrg Rata2Tnk/Ikan(Rp) Hrg Rata2HslKebun(Rp) UmurPetani (Th ) Lama Pendidikan (Th) AnggotaKlrg (Orang) InvestasiProPert(Rp) PndapatnNUtLain (Rp ) InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp)
Model IH Dependent Variable IH Label InvestasiKsehatn(Rp) Analysis of Variance Mean Sum of Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F Model 5 2.345E10 4.6892E9 3.67 0.0032 Error 244 3.121E11 1.2793E9 Corrected Total 249 3.973E11 Root MSE 35766.6412 R-Square 0.06987 Dependent Mean 27338.0000 Adj R-Sq 0.05081 CoeffVar 130.83123 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label Intercept 1 -18268.7 21241.87 -0.86 0.3906 Intercept HG 1 17.95468 16.37675 1.10 0.2740 HargaGabahKP(Rp/Kg) HTh 1 4.569207 5.578002 0.82 0.4135 HargaTahu(Rp/0.5Kg) IP 1 -0.11150 0.041650 -2.68 0.0079 InvestasiProPert(Rp) KRE 1 0.016546 0.009100 1.82 0.0703 KreditPertanian(Rp) INV 1 0.111192 0.041353 2.69 0.0077 InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp) Durbin-Watson 1.94772 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.02582
213
Model IP Dependent Variable IP Label InvestasiProPert(Rp) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Model 4 3.986E14 9.965E13 19.86 Error 246 1.234E15 5.017E12 UncorrectedTotal 250 1.624E15 Root MSE 2239873.41 R-Square 0.24413 Dependent Mean 668290.000 Adj R-Sq 0.23184 CoeffVar 335.16489 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | AT 1 0.007940 0.004378 1.81 0.0710 IS 1 -3.70737 2.469641 -1.50 0.1346 PRO 1 336.1520 281.6674 1.19 0.2338 PRT 1 0.042096 0.030789 1.37 0.1728 Durbin-Watson 1.895376 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.11819
Model TAB Dependent Variable TAB Label Tabungan (Rp) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Model 3 9.633E15 3.211E15 116.28 Error 247 6.821E15 2.761E13 UncorrectedTotal 250 2.023E16 Root MSE 5254943.72 R-Square 0.58545 Dependent Mean 4407145.48 Adj R-Sq 0.58042 CoeffVar 119.23690 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | SB 1 -103469 29648.50 -3.49 0.0006 HTI 1 1.177352 0.982198 1.20 0.2318 PD 1 0.690053 0.060566 11.39 <.0001 Durbin-Watson 1.718713 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.129546
Pr> F <.0001
Label Asset Total (Rp) InvestasiSmbrDy(Rp) ProduksiKedelai(Kg) PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp)
Pr> F <.0001
Label SukuBungaKred it(%/T) Hrg Rata2Tnk/Ikan(Rp) PndptnDisposable(Rp )
214
Model KRE Dependent Variable KRE Label KreditPertanian(Rp) Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Model 8 9.367E13 1.171E13 74.06 Error 242 3.826E13 1.581E11 UncorrectedTotal 250 1.305E14 Root MSE 397627.951 R-Square 0.71000 Dependent Mean 556787.500 Adj R-Sq 0.70041 CoeffVar 71.41467 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | SB 1 11827.49 3537.559 3.34 0.0010 HPU 1 -175.960 107.4666 -1.64 0.1029 HO 1 -2.06696 1.102620 -1.87 0.0621 JPH 1 52.14107 38.05726 1.37 0.1719 TAB 1 0.004139 0.005591 0.74 0.4598 JB 1 4173.824 1103.497 3.78 0.0002 KT 1 0.047838 0.010441 4.58 <.0001 IH 1 2.799003 1.566713 1.79 0.0753 Durbin-Watson 1.750627 Nu mber of Observations 250 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.123013
Pr> F <.0001
Label SukuBungaKred it(%/T) HargaPpk.Urea(Rp/Kg) HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt ) JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg ) Tabungan (Rp) Jmlh BenihKedelai(Kg) KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp) InvestasiKsehatn(Rp)
LAMPIRAN 3. Program Validasi Model EkonomiRumahtangga PetaniKedelaidenganMetodeSolusi Newton Options NoDateNoNu mberNo Center; Data DELE; Set SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTu juhDelapan Semb ilan; Merge SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTu juhDelapan Semb ilan; BS = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR)); BTK = (TKLK)*(UTKL); PUK = (PRO)*(HK); PUKT = PUK - BS - BTK; PKp = (PRO)/(LAP); Hkpu = (Hk/Hpu); Hkps = (Hk/Hps); Hkp k = (Hk/Hpk); If DA>0 Then DA =1; Else DA=0; If DI>0 Then DI=1; Else DI=0; If DG>0 Then DG=1; Else DG=0; If DS>0 Then DS=1; Else DS=0; Label DA = Du mmyArea "MilikSdr=1" DI = Du mmyIrigasi"Teknis=1" DG = Du mmy Gender "Laki2=1" DS = Du mmySkill "TamatSD=1" Hkpu = RasioHgKd l/HgPUrea Hkps = RasioHgKd l/HgPSpTsp Hkp k = RasioHgKd l/HgPKclZa BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp) BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp) PUK = PenerimaanUt.Kd l(Rp) PUKT = PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) PKp = ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha); ; Title04 Prosedur SIMNLIN ProSA S 13022012 UT31012012 by:RMS; Proc SIMNLIN Data=DELE Type=N2SLS Newton MaxIter=50 Converge=1E-8 Simu late Stats Out=KedeleOutactualOutpredictTheilNoprint ; Endogenous LAP PRO JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ JR TKDK TKLK TKDN TKDL PNK PNL KPT KNP IE IH IP TAB KRE TKK TKD TKL TK CK BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT PRT PD KT IS INV BRT KJ PKp ; Exogenous HK HG HJ HS HU HKT HKH HB HPS HPK HO HZ HR HTp HTh HPU HTI HHK UTKL UM ED AKK AK AT SB PBB KL KK TKLN TKLL CKL JPH DA DI DG DS Hkpu Hkps Hkp k ; Parms a0 0.066704 a1 0.000072 a2 -0.00022 a3 -0.00002 a4 -0.00017 a5 2.55E-9 a6 0.010007 a7 0.002492 a8 1.66E-8 b0 1168.302 b 1 -0.17114 b2 -0.19309 b3 -0.00246 b4 -0.09223 b5 250.1141 b 6 0.000458 b7 0.000274 c0 50.34381 c1 -0.00579 c2 -0.00019 c3 -0.00634 c4 20.97170 c5 7.06E-6 c6 6.546E-6 d0 73.23491 d 1 10.53485 d2 -0.01359 d3 -0.00050 d4 -0.00055 d5 0.004604 d 6 4.236E-6 d7 1.128E-6 d8 7.359E-6
216
e0 -0.66949 e1 11.86229 e2 -0.00573 e3 -0.00035 e4 4.111293 e5 13.69883 e6 0.131396 e7 2.203E-6 f0 8.786600 f1 1.353340 f2 -0.00254 f3 -0.00006 f4 -0.00014 f5 0.001978 f6 9.972467 f7 2.379E-6 f8 3.465E-6 g0 3.927157 g 1 -0.00002 g2 -0.00032 g3 -7.82E-6 g 4 -0.00033 g5 0.000081 g 6 0.271045 g7 8.193E-8 g 8 3.326E-7 h0 3.282425 h 1 -0.00003 h2 -0.00023 h3 -0.00001 h4 -0.00032 h5 2.112E-7 h6 2.826E-7 i0 3.610284 i1 -0.00015 i2 -0.00014 i3 -0.00126 i4 -8.4E-6 i5 -5.03E-6 i6 0.000429 i7 1.228472 i8 4.458E-8 j0 93.41927 j1 -0.00141 j2 -0.75052 j3 -3.66962 j4 5.591721 j5 23.91475 j6 29.65159 j7 0.384268 j8 1.367E-6 k0 173.6533 k1 -0.00545 k2 -0.38456 k3 -1.49175 k4 25.28731 k5 -0.09211 k6 1.173357 k7 5.371E-6 l0 90.92766 l1 -0.00237 l2 0.008825 l3 3.764380 l4 -0.08005 l5 9.348E-6 l6 1.353E-6 m0 115.1008 m1 -0.00112 m2 -0.63897 m3 -4.06150 m4 -0.09087 m5 0.000014 m6 5.206E-6 n1 225.3152 n 2 -0.18535 n3 -0.11844 n4 0.421136 n 5 4.800250 o1 1683.705 o 2 0.481391 o3 0.005364 o4 -0.33056 o 5 -0.47292 o6 0.426002 o 7 1.616235 p0 15819.43 p 1 -7.51611 p2 1583.559 p3 376.3395 p 4 -0.00304 p5 0.015452 q1 15917.22 q 2 211566.5 q 3 -7.00978 q4 0.062295 q 5 0.488622 r0 -74899.8 r1 11.02389 r2 17.55448 r3 11.21535 r4 0.004974 r5 1.106450 r6 179.7959 r7 1094.343 r8 1392.739 r9 -0.81980 r10 0.000898 r11 0.817995 s0 -18268.7 s1 17.95468 s2 4.569207 s3 -0.11150 s4 0.016546 s5 0.111192 t1 0.007940 t 2 -3.70737 t 3 336.1520 t4 0.042096 u1 -103469 u2 1.177352 u3 0.690053 v1 11827.49 v 2 -175.960 v3 -2.06696 v4 52.14107 v5 0.004139 v6 4173.824 v 7 0.047838 v8 2.799003 ; ; LAP = a0 +a1*HK +a2* HJ +a3*hkh +a4*hpu +a5*AT +a6*JB +a7*TKDK +a8*PRT; PRO = b0 +b1* HB +b 2*hps +b3*HZ +b4*HR +b5* LAP +b6* KRE +b7*PUK; JB = c0 +c1*HB +c2*HZ +c3* HR +c4* LAP +c5* KRE +c6*PUK; JPU = d0 +d1* (HK/HPU) +d 2*HB +d3* HO +d4* HZ +d5*jph +d6*PNK +d7*pnl +d8*PUK; JPS = e0 +e1*(HK/ HPS) +e2* HB +e3*HZ +e4*da +e5*LAP +e6*TKLK +e7*PNK; JPK = f0 +f1*(hk/hpk) +f2*hb +f3*HO +f4*h z +f5*jph +f6* lap +f7*PNK +f8*PUK; JO = g0 +g1* HO +g 2*HB +g3*hz +g4* HR +g 5*jph +g 6*di +g7*PNK +g 8*PUK; JZ = h0 +h1* HZ +h2*hb +h3* HO +h4* HR +h 5*PNK +h6*PUK; JR = i0 +i1* HR +i2*hb +i3*hpu +i4*HO +i5*hz +i6*JPH +i7* LAP +i8*prt; TKDK = j0 +j1*utkl +j2*UM +j3*ED +j4*AKK +j5*DG +j6* LAP +j7*JPS +j8*TA B; TKLK = k0 + k1*UTKL +k2*u m +k3*ed +k4*DS +k5*t kdl +k6*JPS +k7*PUK; TKDN = l0 +l1*utkl +l2*hk +l3*akk +l4*tklk +l5*PNK +l6*tab; TKDL = m0 +m1*utkl +m2*UM +m3* ED +m4*tklk +m5*PNL +m6*PUKT; PNK = n1* HKT +n2* PNL +n 3*pukt +n4*TAB +n 5*KRE; PNL = o1* HTP +o2*hti +o3*at +o 4*PNK +o5*PUKT +o6*TAB +o 7*KRE; KPT = p0 +p1* HJ +p2*AK +p3* KK +p4* KNP +p5*KRE; KNP = q1* UM +q 2*AK +q 3*KPT +q 4*PNL +q 5*KT; IE = r0 +r1*HK +r2*hs +r3*hu +r4*hti +r5*hhk +r6*um +r7*ed +r8*ak +r9*IP +r10*pnl +r11*INV; IH = s0 +s1*hg +s2*hth +s3*IP +s4*KRE +s5*INV; IP = t1*AT +t2*IS +t 3*pro +t4*PRT; TAB = u1*SB +u2*hti +u3*PD; KRE = v1*SB +v2* HPU +v3*HO +v4*JPH +v5*tab +v6*JB +v7* KT +v8*IH;
217
; TKK TKD TKL TK CK BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT PRT PD KT IS INV BRT KJ PKp RUN;
= TKDK + TKLK; = TKDK + TKDN + TKDL; = TKLK + TKLN + TKLL; = TKD + TKL; = TKD + CKL; = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR)); = (TKLK)*(UTKL); = BS + BTK; = (PRO)*(HK); = PUK - BUK; = PUKT + PNK + PNL; = PRT - PBB; = KPT + KNP + KL; = IE + IH; = IS + IP; = KT + INV; = PRO - KK; = (PRO)/(LAP);
LAMPIRAN 4. HasilValidasi Model EkonomiRumahtangga PetaniKedelaidenganMetodeSolusi Newton ProSAS 13022012 Ujian Terbuka 31012012 By: RMS. The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simul taneous Simulation Descripti ve Statistics Actual Predicted Vari able Nobs N Mean StdDev Mean
StdDev
Label
LAP 250 PRO 250 JB 250 JPU 250 JPS 250 JPK 250 JO 250 JZ 250 JR 250 TKDK 250 TKLK 250 TKDN 250 TKDL 250 PNK 250 PNL 250 KPT 250 KNP 250 IE 250 IH 250 IP 250 TAB 250 KRE 250 TKK 250 TKD 250 TKL 250 TK 250 CK 250 BS 250 BTK 250 BUK 250 PUK 250 PUKT 250 PRT 250 PD 250 KT 250 IS 250 INV 250 BRT 250 KJ 250 PKp 250
2.2916 5454.2 161.30 155.80 73.674 100.10 6.1802 6.4668 3.7367 115.20 169.60 86.717 35.529 8629986 2491605 21031 1699883 181797 34575 2539331 14214360 835539 283.80 231.50 203.80 423.70 283.60 1469621 1218663 2649050 16504283 13924625 20529124 20520707 3089718 214598 2607414 4044894 5449.60 1393.47
Luas Areal Panen(Ha) ProduksiKedelai(Kg) Jmlh BenihKedelai(Kg) JmlhPupuk Urea (Kg) JmlhPp k.Sp 36/Tsp(Kg) JmlhPp k.Kcl/Za (Kg ) Jmlh Obat/Pestsd(Lt) Jumlah ZPT/Ppc (Lt) Jmlh Rhizo+ (Sachet) TK DlmKlrgKdl (HOK) TK LuarKlrgKd l(HOK) TKDlmKlgNonKdl(HOK) TKDlmKlgNUt Lain(HOK) PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) PndapatnNUtLain (Rp ) KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp) KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp) InvestasiPdidikn(Rp) InvestasiKsehatn(Rp) InvestasiProPert(Rp) Tabungan (Rp) KreditPertanian(Rp) TenagaKerjaKdl(HOK) TKDalamKeluarga(HOK) TK LuarKeluarga(HOK) TenagaKerjaTtl(HOK) CurahKerjaTotal(HOK) BiayaSaranaProd(Rp) BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp) BiayaUt.Kedelai(Rp) Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp) PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp) PndptnDisposable(Rp ) KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp) InvestasiSmbrDy(Rp) InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp) PengeluaranRTTt l(Rp) KdlJual/ SurplusP(Kg ) ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha)
250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250
0.6598 853.10 31.928 49.224 35.416 20.212 1.2156 1.1864 1.9520 102.50 160.80 142.00 106.40 4267717 4751787 25459 5785780 64235 27338 668290 4407145 556788 263.20 350.90 397.50 748.40 745.80 333315 900822 1234163 1848492 614355 9633834 9599719 8056117 91573 759863 8815980 804.40 1292.96
0.6274 959.90 30.387 58.287 40.037 31.308 1.7866 2.1462 1.8750 66.005 75.748 80.525 75.677 3862284 4311062 25957 2327017 102722 39943 2464677 7857649 461375 107.40 162.30 138.70 234.60 261.80 312840 471315 633164 2290849 1966327 6937665 6912464 3216638 114082 2475576 4515198 928.30 800.90
0.7867 1054.8 38.535 56.327 39.583 25.062 1.4669 1.6732 2.1468 109.60 168.50 148.70 109.10 4870966 4979984 26020 5758605 61977 27461 1064774 5680085 586007 278.10 367.40 405.20 772.60 762.30 400467 992536 1393003 2419060 1026057 10877007 10842893 8029504 89438 1154212 9183716 1006.1 1340.8
220
The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simul taneous Simulation Statistics of fi t Mean Mean% MeanAbs MeanAbs RMS Vari able N Error Error Error % Error Error LAP 250 PRO 250 JB 250 JPU 250 JPS 250 JPK 250 JO 250 JZ 250 JR 250 TKDK 250 TKLK 250 TKDN 250 TKDL 250 PNK 250 PNL 250 KPT 250 KNP 250 IE 250 IH 250 IP 250 TAB 250 KRE 250 TKK 250 TKD 250 TKL 250 TK 250 CK 250 BS 250 BTK 250 BUK 250 PUK 250 PUKT 250 PRT 250 PD 250 KT 250 IS 250 INV 250 BRT 250 KJ 250 PKp 250
0.1269 201.70 6.6072 7.1032 4.1671 4.8500 0.2513 0.4868 0.1948 7.1043 7.7146 6.7204 2.6469 603249 228197 561.50 27175 2258.0 122.80 396484 1272939 29220 14.819 16.472 7.7146 24.186 16.472 67152 91713 158840 570568 411703 1243174 1243174 26613 2135.2 394349 367735 201.70 1367.9
16.101 60.580 12.177 641.50 759.80 580.30 124.70 710.00 51.976 41.646 40.774 53.525 191.90 100.50 144.00 73.091 9.8962 632.40 367.10 848.10 89219 2519.5 20.043 27.598 6.3746 7.8368 7.3635 32.416 40.774 28.914 60.580 61.381 47.151 47.454 4.2026 148.60 439.00 12.431 90.167 56.707
0.8631 1916.6 58.936 72.751 41.618 42.292 2.4656 2.8539 1.8707 70.553 91.337 77.096 63.375 4479782 3418043 14468 1587527 139013 32583 1642665 8367244 500758 135.60 163.60 91.337 214.00 163.60 559161 544562 1020731 5314639 4464397 9205839 9205839 1585816 162822 1601239 2428880 1916.6 3563.9
149.00 417.10 279.00 1023.5 962.60 1426.3 325.00 985.00 113.60 89.914 80.653 86.999 223.80 164.70 187.40 100.90 30.093 4039.4 464.30 1161.7 129712 2590.2 57.823 59.330 23.932 28.746 23.545 198.80 80.653 88.680 417.10 2087.7 112.30 112.90 20.810 621.30 618.00 28.747 478.00 461.20
RMS% Error 2.2164 5426.1 160.00 175.00 84.996 104.50 6.6698 7.1362 4.1679 126.00 180.90 108.00 77.674 8547061 4743953 23853 2199270 186913 53262 3539954 15579921 927786 292.20 258.90 180.90 409.60 258.90 1509476 1250789 2679959 16413444 13838743 20283226 20283226 2196402 223528 3561434 3965284 5426.1 25965
341.00 1369.6 823.20 4953.6 3160.8 4462.8 992.40 4016.3 277.90 169.30 272.70 144.20 542.90 324.90 395.10 207.50 41.973 8405.5 1320.2 2167.3 3910.0 1003.6 153.20 95.186 43.677 49.162 36.340 504.20 272.70 236.40 1370.0 1184.0 229.10 230.20 27.508 1745.4 1030.9 39.858 1647.9 3132.6
221
The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simul taneous Simulation Theil Forecast Error Statistics MS E Decomposition Proporti ons Corr Bi as RegDistVarCovarInequalCoef Vari able N MS E (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1
U
LAP 250 4.9125 0.25 0.00 0.92 0.07 0.56 0.44 2.4367 0.6660 PRO 250 29443042 0.11 0.00 0.97 0.03 0.68 0.32 4.2300 0.7948 JB 250 25593 0.13 0.00 0.96 0.04 0.67 0.33 3.6330 0.7633 JPU 250 30611 0.17 0.00 0.89 0.11 0.31 0.69 2.2960 0.7242 JPS 250 7224.4 0.03 0.00 0.78 0.22 0.16 0.84 1.5919 0.6209 JPK 250 10917 0.01 0.00 0.91 0.09 0.43 0.57 2.8078 0.7453 JO 250 44.486 0.15 0.00 0.93 0.07 0.43 0.57 3.0908 0.7849 JZ 250 50.925 0.16 0.00 0.91 0.09 0.37 0.63 2.9145 0.7828 JR 250 17.372 0.01 0.00 0.80 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.5413 0.5948 TKDK 250 15871 0.12 0.00 0.73 0.27 0.15 0.84 1.0340 0.4488 TKLK 250 32715 0.07 0.00 0.82 0.17 0.27 0.73 1.0182 0.4343 TKDN 250 11661 0.17 0.00 0.46 0.54 0.00 0.99 0.6618 0.3221 TKDL 250 6033.3 0.17 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.27 0.73 0.5953 0.3168 PNK 250 7.31E13 0.25 0.00 0.80 0.19 0.31 0.69 1.4863 0.5463 PNL 250 2.25E13 0.10 0.00 0.18 0.81 0.15 0.85 0.7401 0.3961 KPT 250 5.69E8 0.50 0.00 0.11 0.89 0.04 0.96 0.6567 0.3420 KNP 250 4.84E12 0.44 0.00 0.10 0.90 0.08 0.92 0.3528 0.1797 IE 250 3.49E10 0.23 0.00 0.71 0.29 0.18 0.82 1.5450 0.5977 IH 250 2.84E9 0.02 0.00 0.44 0.56 0.01 0.99 1.1019 0.5762 IP 250 1.25E13 0.01 0.01 0.50 0.48 0.00 0.99 1.3888 0.6682 TAB 250 2.43E14 0.10 0.01 0.74 0.25 0.17 0.83 1.7320 0.6418 KRE 250 8.61E11 0.06 0.00 0.75 0.25 0.16 0.84 1.2841 0.5327 TKK 250 85400 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.13 0.36 0.63 1.0282 0.4290 TKD 250 67015 0.17 0.00 0.62 0.38 0.07 0.92 0.6698 0.3155 TKL 250 32715 0.50 0.00 0.56 0.44 0.13 0.87 0.4298 0.2069 TK 250 167782 0.34 0.00 0.71 0.29 0.21 0.78 0.5224 0.2460 CK 250 67015 0.55 0.00 0.29 0.71 0.01 0.99 0.3276 0.1615 BS 250 2.28E12 0.03 0.00 0.96 0.04 0.58 0.41 3.3052 0.7635 BTK 250 1.56E12 0.13 0.01 0.86 0.14 0.36 0.64 1.2308 0.4837 BUK 250 7.18E12 0.07 0.00 0.94 0.06 0.56 0.43 1.9329 0.6126 PUK 250 2.69E14 0.10 0.00 0.98 0.02 0.75 0.25 5.5827 0.8379 PUKT 250 1.92E14 0.10 0.00 0.98 0.02 0.74 0.26 6.7299 0.8654 PRT 250 4.11E14 0.20 0.00 0.88 0.11 0.45 0.55 1.7097 0.5785 PD 250 4.11E14 0.20 0.00 0.89 0.11 0.45 0.55 1.7158 0.5796 KT 250 4.82E12 0.76 0.00 0.09 0.91 0.00 1.00 0.2533 0.1272 IS 250 4.99E10 0.18 0.00 0.75 0.25 0.20 0.80 1.5299 0.5910 INV 250 1.27E13 0.03 0.01 0.51 0.48 0.00 0.99 1.3778 0.6557 BRT 250 1.57E13 0.58 0.01 0.13 0.86 0.01 0.98 0.4005 0.1989 250 29443042 0.10 0.00 0.97 0.03 0.69 0.31 4.4226 0.8029 KJ PKp 250 6.74E8 0.02 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.94 0.06 16.615 0.9444
LAMPIRAN 5. Program SimulasiKebijakan Model Ekonomi RumahtanggaPetaniKedelai Options NoDateNoNu mberNo Center; Data DELE; Set SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTu juhDelapan Semb ilan; Merge SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTu juhDelapan Semb ilan; BS = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR)); BTK = (TKLK)*(UTKL); PUK = (PRO)*(HK); PUKT = PUK - BS - BTK; PKp = (PRO)/(LAP); Hkpu = (Hk/Hpu); Hkps = (Hk/Hps); Hkp k = (Hk/Hpk); If DA>0 Then DA =1; Else DA=0; If DI>0 Then DI=1; Else DI=0; If DG>0 Then DG=1; Else DG=0; If DS>0 Then DS=1; Else DS=0; Label DA = Du mmyArea "MilikSdr=1" DI = Du mmyIrigasi"Teknis=1" DG = Du mmy Gender "Laki2=1" DS = Du mmySkill "TamatSD=1" Hkpu = RasioHgKd l/HgPUrea Hkps = RasioHgKd l/HgPSpTsp Hkp k = RasioHgKd l/HgPKclZa BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp) BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp) PUK = PenerimaanUt.Kd l(Rp) PUKT = PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) PKp = ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha); ; Title03 KenaikanHargaKedelai25.0% ; HK = (1.25* HK); RUN; ; Title04 Prosedur SIMNLIN ProSA S 13022012 UT31012012 by: RM S; Proc SIMNLIN Data=DELE Type=N2SLS Newton MaxIter=50 Converge=1E-8 Simu late Stats Out=KedeleOutactualOutpredictTheilNoprint ; Endogenous LAP PRO JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ JR TKDK TKLK TKDN TKDL PNK PNL KPT KNP IE IH IP TAB KRE TKK TKD TKL TK CK BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT PRT PD KT IS INV BRT KJ PKp ; Exogenous HK HG HJ HS HU HKT HKH HB HPU HPS HPK HO HZ HR HTp HTh HTI HHK UTKL UM ED AKK AK AT SB PBB KL KK TKLN TKLL CKL JPH DA DI DG DS Hkpu Hkps Hkp k ; Parms a0 0.066704 a1 0.000072 a2 -0.00022 a3 -0.00002 a4 -0.00017 a5 2.55E-9 a6 0.010007 a7 0.002492 a8 1.66E-8 b0 1168.302 b 1 -0.17114 b2 -0.19309 b3 -0.00246 b4 -0.09223 b5 250.1141 b 6 0.000458 b7 0.000274
224
c0 50.34381 c1 -0.00579 c2 -0.00019 c3 -0.00634 c4 20.97170 c5 7.06E-6 c6 6.546E-6 d0 73.23491 d 1 10.53485 d2 -0.01359 d3 -0.00050 d4 -0.00055 d5 0.004604 d 6 4.236E-6 d7 1.128E-6 d8 7.359E-6 e0 -0.66949 e1 11.86229 e2 -0.00573 e3 -0.00035 e4 4.111293 e5 13.69883 e6 0.131396 e7 2.203E-6 f0 8.786600 f1 1.353340 f2 -0.00254 f3 -0.00006 f4 -0.00014 f5 0.001978 f6 9.972467 f7 2.379E-6 f8 3.465E-6 g0 3.927157 g 1 -0.00002 g2 -0.00032 g3 -7.82E-6 g 4 -0.00033 g5 0.000081 g 6 0.271045 g7 8.193E-8 g 8 3.326E-7 h0 3.282425 h 1 -0.00003 h2 -0.00023 h3 -0.00001 h4 -0.00032 h5 2.112E-7 h6 2.826E-7 i0 3.610284 i1 -0.00015 i2 -0.00014 i3 -0.00126 i4 -8.4E-6 i5 -5.03E-6 i6 0.000429 i7 1.228472 i8 4.458E-8 j0 93.41927 j1 -0.00141 j2 -0.75052 j3 -3.66962 j4 5.591721 j5 23.91475 j6 29.65159 j7 0.384268 j8 1.367E-6 k0 173.6533 k1 -0.00545 k2 -0.38456 k3 -1.49175 k4 25.28731 k5 -0.09211 k6 1.173357 k7 5.371E-6 l0 90.92766 l1 -0.00237 l2 0.008825 l3 3.764380 l4 -0.08005 l5 9.348E-6 l6 1.353E-6 m0 115.1008 m1 -0.00112 m2 -0.63897 m3 -4.06150 m4 -0.09087 m5 0.000014 m6 5.206E-6 n1 225.3152 n 2 -0.18535 n3 -0.11844 n4 0.421136 n 5 4.800250 o1 1683.705 o 2 0.481391 o3 0.005364 o4 -0.33056 o 5 -0.47292 o6 0.426002 o 7 1.616235 p0 15819.43 p 1 -7.51611 p2 1583.559 p3 376.3395 p 4 -0.00304 p5 0.015452 q1 15917.22 q 2 211566.5 q 3 -7.00978 q4 0.062295 q 5 0.488622 r0 -74899.8 r1 11.02389 r2 17.55448 r3 11.21535 r4 0.004974 r5 1.106450 r6 179.7959 r7 1094.343 r8 1392.739 r9 -0.81980 r10 0.000898 r11 0.817995 s0 -18268.7 s1 17.95468 s2 4.569207 s3 -0.11150 s4 0.016546 s5 0.111192 t1 0.007940 t 2 -3.70737 t 3 336.1520 t4 0.042096 u1 -103469 u2 1.177352 u3 0.690053 v1 11827.49 v 2 -175.960 v3 -2.06696 v4 52.14107 v5 0.004139 v6 4173.824 v 7 0.047838 v8 2.799003 ; ; LAP = a0 +a1*HK +a2* HJ +a3*hkh +a4*hpu +a5*AT +a6*JB +a7*TKDK +a8*PRT; PRO = b0 +b1* HB +b 2*hps +b3*HZ +b4*HR +b5* LAP +b6* KRE +b7*PUK; JB = c0 +c1*HB +c2*HZ +c3* HR +c4* LAP +c5* KRE +c6*PUK; JPU = d0 +d1* (HK/HPU) +d 2*HB +d3* HO +d4* HZ +d5*jph +d6*PNK +d7*pnl +d8*PUK; JPS = e0 +e1*(HK/ HPS) +e2* HB +e3*HZ +e4*da +e5*LAP +e6*TKLK +e7*PNK; JPK = f0 +f1*(hk/hpk) +f2*hb +f3*HO +f4*h z +f5*jph +f6* lap +f7*PNK +f8*PUK; JO = g0 +g1* HO +g 2*HB +g3*hz +g4* HR +g 5*jph +g 6*di +g7*PNK +g 8*PUK; JZ = h0 +h1* HZ +h2*hb +h3* HO +h4* HR +h 5*PNK +h6*PUK; JR = i0 +i1* HR +i2*hb +i3*hpu +i4*HO +i5*hz +i6*JPH +i7* LAP +i8*prt; TKDK = j0 +j1*utkl +j2*UM +j3*ED +j4*AKK +j5*DG +j6* LAP +j7*JPS +j8*TA B; TKLK = k0 + k1*UTKL +k2*u m +k3*ed +k4*DS +k5*t kdl +k6*JPS +k7*PUK; TKDN = l0 +l1*utkl +l2*hk +l3*akk +l4*tklk +l5*PNK +l6*tab; TKDL = m0 +m1*utkl +m2*UM +m3* ED +m4*tklk +m5*PNL +m6*PUKT; PNK = n1* HKT +n2* PNL +n 3*pukt +n4*TAB +n 5*KRE; PNL = o1* HTP +o2*hti +o3*at +o 4*PNK +o5*PUKT +o6*TAB +o 7*KRE; KPT = p0 +p1* HJ +p2*AK +p3* KK +p4* KNP +p5*KRE; KNP = q1* UM +q 2*AK +q 3*KPT +q 4*PNL +q 5*KT; IE = r0 +r1*HK +r2*hs +r3*hu +r4*hti +r5*hhk +r6*um +r7*ed +r8*ak +r9*IP +r10*pnl +r11*INV;
225
IH IP TAB KRE ; TKK TKD TKL TK CK BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT PRT PD KT IS INV BRT KJ PKp RUN; ;
= s0 +s1*hg +s2*hth +s3*IP +s4*KRE +s5*INV; = t1*AT +t2*IS +t 3*pro +t4*PRT; = u1*SB +u2*hti +u3*PD; = v1*SB +v2* HPU +v3*HO +v4*JPH +v5*tab +v6*JB +v7* KT +v8*IH; = TKDK + TKLK; = TKDK + TKDN + TKDL; = TKLK + TKLN + TKLL; = TKD + TKL; = TKD + CKL; = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR)); = (TKLK)*(UTKL); = BS + BTK; = (PRO)*(HK); = PUK - BUK; = PUKT + PNK + PNL; = PRT - PBB; = KPT + KNP + KL; = IE + IH; = IS + IP; = KT + INV; = PRO - KK; = (PRO)/(LAP);
LAMPIRAN 6. HasilSimulasiKebijakan Model Ekonomi RumahtanggaPetaniKedelai ProSAS 13022012 Ujian Terbuka 31012012 By: RMS. KenaikanHargaKedelai 25.0% The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simul taneous Simulation Descripti ve Statistics Actual Predicted Vari able Nobs N Mean StdDev Mean StdDev
Label
LAP 250 250 0.6598 0.6274 0.9866 1.9002 Luas Areal Panen(Ha) PRO 250 250 853.10 959.90 1392.3 4617.7 ProduksiKedelai(Kg) JB 250 250 31.928 30.387 49.260 137.10 Jmlh BenihKedelai(Kg) JPU 250 250 49.224 58.287 71.533 132.10 JmlhPupuk Urea (Kg) JPS 250 250 35.416 40.037 50.572 62.387 JmlhPp k.Sp 36/Tsp(Kg) JPK 250 250 20.212 31.308 32.476 84.303 JmlhPp k.Kcl/Za (Kg ) JO 250 250 1.2156 1.7866 1.8308 5.3322 Jmlh Obat/Pestsd(Lt) JZ 250 250 1.1864 2.1462 2.0912 5.5550 Jumlah ZPT/Ppc (Lt) JR 250 250 1.9520 1.8750 2.4595 3.1993 Jmlh Rhizo+ (Sachet) TKDK 250 250 102.50 66.005 121.20 97.898 TK DlmKlrgKdl (HOK) TKLK 250 250 160.80 75.748 186.00 146.20 TK LuarKlrgKd l(HOK) TKDN 250 250 142.00 80.525 160.70 73.589 TKDlmKlgNonKdl(HOK) TKDL 250 250 106.40 75.677 111.00 32.591 TKDlmKlgNUt Lain(HOK) PNK 250 250 4267717 3862284 5639699 7295401 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) PNL 250 250 4751787 4311062 4941169 2317412 PndapatnNUtLain (Rp ) KPT 250 250 25459 25957 27427 19092 KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp) KNP 250 250 5785780 2327017 5735941 1689426 KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp) IE 250 250 64235 102722 158433 192468 InvestasiPdidikn(Rp) IH 250 250 27338 39943 41219 33196 InvestasiKsehatn(Rp) IP 250 250 668290 2464677 833103 2197014 InvestasiProPert(Rp) TAB 250 250 4407145 7857649 6720436 12118508 Tabungan (Rp) KRE 250 250 556788 461375 672570 713618 KreditPertanian(Rp) TKK 250 250 263.20 107.40 307.20 242.80 TenagaKerjaKdl(HOK) TKD 250 250 350.90 162.30 392.80 197.30 TKDalamKeluarga(HOK) TKL 250 250 397.50 138.70 422.70 169.30 TK LuarKeluarga(HOK) TK 250 250 748.40 234.60 815.50 352.10 TenagaKerjaTtl(HOK) CK 250 250 745.80 261.80 787.70 254.50 CurahKerjaTotal(HOK) BS 250 250 333315 312840 492584 1242310 BiayaSaranaProd(Rp) BTK 250 250 900822 471315 1027506 824959 BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp) BUK 250 250 1234163 633164 1520090 2010115 BiayaUt.Kedelai(Rp) PUK 250 250 1848492 2290849 3323869 13888710 Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp) PUKT 250 250 614355 1966327 1803779 11952441 PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) PRT 250 250 9633834 6937665 12384647 17443364 PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp) PD 250 250 9599719 6912464 12350533 17443431 PndptnDisposable(Rp ) KT 250 250 8056117 3216638 8008246 3082782 KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp) IS 250 250 91573 114082 199652 223921 InvestasiSmbrDy(Rp) INV 250 250 759863 2475576 1032755 2215133 InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp) BRT 250 250 8815980 4515198 9041001 3860070 PengeluaranRTTt l(Rp) KJ 250 250 804.40 928.30 1343.6 4613.8 KdlJual/ SurplusP(Kg ) PKp 250 250 1292.97 800.90 1411.2 643.17 ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha)
228
The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simul taneous Simulation Statistics of fi t Mean Mean% MeanAbs MeanAbs RMS RMS% Vari able N Error Error Error % Error Error Error LAP 250 0.3268 101.70 0.9734 202.50 1.9600 398.20 PRO 250 539.20 94.765 2125.4 408.50 4626.5 838.60 JB 250 17.332 96.245 64.914 286.80 135.90 545.80 JPU 250 22.309 661.00 77.3836 1224.0 147.70 6609.3 JPS 250 15.156 944.40 42.2357 1020.2 72.915 3964.3 JPK 250 12.264 1666.2 46.7804 2287.8 92.319 7369.8 JO 250 0.6152 153.70 2.7412 452.00 5.6807 1324.8 JZ 250 0.9048 832.60 3.0747 1368.3 6.0421 4416.5 JR 250 0.5075 81.374 2.0310 137.20 3.7255 288.10 TKDK 250 18.674 65.613 77.2205 101.00 116.90 158.30 TKLK 250 25.292 41.750 91.4560 72.902 157.90 131.10 TKDN 250 18.644 73.546 83.5082 101.70 109.20 174.60 TKDL 250 4.5550 215.10 66.1794 246.50 79.094 721.90 PNK 250 1371982 153.80 4908609 221.60 8343180 437.70 PNL 250 189382 142.90 3328475 186.10 4494840 389.40 KPT 250 1968.0 83.551 15101 112.90 23001 228.00 KNP 250 49839 9.2578 1573240 29.911 2149160 41.775 IE 250 94197 3642.1 164137 5259.3 215843 1154.7 IH 250 13881 562.00 36884 604.30 54218 1704.1 IP 250 164813 890.50 1772947 1373.8 3410452 2816.3 TAB 250 2313291 105149 8891633 132651 14815286 2999.7 KRE 250 115782 2426.0 497420 2714.8 805407 8926.7 TKK 250 43.966 31.539 149.00 61.445 258.80 102.40 TKD 250 41.874 42.389 181.00 69.084 255.30 114.50 TKL 250 25.292 12.942 91.456 27.143 157.90 52.444 TK 250 67.166 16.802 238.40 34.802 383.10 56.956 CK 250 41.873 12.105 181.00 26.359 255.30 37.117 BS 250 159269 95.778 628124 240.40 1287373 544.40 BTK 250 126684 41.750 522221 72.902 884598 131.10 BUK 250 285927 47.435 1078493 100.00 2079347 204.20 PUK 250 1475377 143.50 6245839 515.10 14040684 1051.4 PUKT 250 1189425 198.40 5259477 6885.7 12057083 4652.2 PRT 250 2750814 91.277 10266528 149.50 18918519 312.20 PD 250 2750814 91.894 10266528 150.40 18918519 313.90 KT 250 47871 3.7809 1573203 20.723 2148060 27.351 IS 250 108078 535.90 192006 718.30 253966 1588.6 INV 250 272892 502.40 1733011 743.00 3400502 1428.7 BRT 250 225021 11.471 2502897 29.899 3975379 45.905 KJ 250 539.20 101.10 2125.4 455.10 4626.5 949.20 PKp 250 2018.3 243.30 4302.8 534.40 1545.0 2217.9
229
The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simul taneous Simulation Theil Forecast Error Statistics MS E Decomposition Proporti ons Corr Bi as RegDistVarCovarInequalCoef Vari able N MS E (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1
U
LAP 250 3.8418 0.11 0.03 0.87 0.10 0.42 0.55 2.1549 0.6432 PRO 250 21404747 0.12 0.01 0.94 0.04 0.62 0.36 3.6066 0.7588 JB 250 18477 0.18 0.02 0.94 0.05 0.61 0.37 3.0869 0.7176 JPU 250 21801 0.04 0.02 0.82 0.16 0.25 0.73 1.9376 0.6528 JPS 250 5316.6 0.08 0.04 0.66 0.30 0.09 0.86 1.3656 0.5457 JPK 250 8522.9 0.06 0.02 0.87 0.11 0.33 0.65 2.4809 0.7247 JO 250 32.270 0.02 0.01 0.89 0.10 0.39 0.60 2.6325 0.7296 JZ 250 36.507 0.02 0.02 0.85 0.13 0.32 0.66 2.4677 0.7216 JR 250 13.879 0.01 0.02 0.73 0.25 0.13 0.86 1.3777 0.5532 TKDK 250 13671 0.04 0.03 0.66 0.32 0.07 0.90 0.9596 0.4214 TKLK 250 24947 0.12 0.03 0.75 0.23 0.20 0.78 0.8891 0.3814 TKDN 250 11917 0.02 0.03 0.43 0.54 0.00 0.97 0.6690 0.3212 TKDL 250 6255.9 0.11 0.00 0.10 0.90 0.30 0.70 0.6061 0.3214 PNK 250 6.96E13 0.00 0.03 0.76 0.21 0.17 0.80 1.4508 0.5577 PNL 250 2.02E13 0.19 0.00 0.11 0.88 0.20 0.80 0.7012 0.3788 KPT 250 5.29E8 0.52 0.01 0.06 0.93 0.09 0.90 0.6333 0.3299 KNP 250 4.62E12 0.46 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.09 0.91 0.3447 0.1760 IE 250 4.66E10 0.25 0.19 0.60 0.21 0.17 0.64 1.7841 0.5834 IH 250 2.94E9 0.02 0.07 0.39 0.54 0.02 0.92 1.1217 0.5356 IP 250 1.16E13 0.07 0.00 0.48 0.52 0.01 0.99 1.3380 0.6968 TAB 250 2.20E14 0.03 0.02 0.70 0.28 0.08 0.89 1.6470 0.6489 KRE 250 6.49E11 0.13 0.02 0.66 0.32 0.10 0.88 1.1147 0.4732 TKK 250 66984 0.10 0.03 0.80 0.17 0.27 0.70 0.9106 0.3831 TKD 250 65197 0.02 0.03 0.57 0.40 0.02 0.95 0.6607 0.3092 TKL 250 24947 0.50 0.03 0.40 0.58 0.04 0.94 0.3753 0.1803 TK 250 146764 0.22 0.03 0.61 0.36 0.09 0.88 0.4885 0.2291 CK 250 65197 0.52 0.03 0.21 0.76 0.00 0.97 0.3231 0.1578 BS 250 1.66E12 0.00 0.02 0.93 0.06 0.52 0.47 2.8188 0.7189 BTK 250 7.83E11 0.17 0.02 0.71 0.27 0.16 0.82 0.8705 0.3792 BUK 250 4.32E12 0.07 0.02 0.89 0.09 0.44 0.54 1.4997 0.5327 PUK 250 1.97E14 0.04 0.01 0.96 0.03 0.68 0.31 4.7757 0.8166 PUKT 250 1.45E14 0.05 0.01 0.96 0.03 0.68 0.31 5.8635 0.8539 PRT 250 3.58E14 0.00 0.02 0.84 0.13 0.31 0.67 1.5946 0.5694 PD 250 3.58E14 0.00 0.02 0.85 0.13 0.31 0.67 1.6004 0.5704 KT 250 4.61E12 0.77 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.00 1.00 0.2477 0.1245 IS 250 6.45E10 0.20 0.18 0.63 0.19 0.19 0.63 1.7382 0.5697 INV 250 1.16E13 0.05 0.01 0.47 0.53 0.01 0.99 1.3156 0.6767 BRT 250 1.58E13 0.56 0.00 0.11 0.88 0.03 0.97 0.4015 0.2015 0.11 0.01 0.95 0.04 0.63 0.35 3.7709 0.7681 KJ 250 21404747 0.01 0.02 0.98 0.00 0.88 0.10 9.8867 0.8974 PKp 250 2.39E8
LAMPIRAN 7. HasilAnalisisUsahataniKedelai di Indonesia Dalam analisis usahatani kedelai, untuk menghitung nilai R/C atau rasio antara produksi dan pengeluaran dalam persen, perlu diperhitungkan nilai produksi, pendapatan, dan pengeluaran- nya, seperti terlihat pada Tabel 7.1.dan Tabel 7.2. berikut ini. Jika produksi usahatani kedelai di Indonesia adalah 100%, maka jumlah pendapatan mencapai 24.60%, dan pengeluaran-nya 75.40%, sehingga diperoleh nilai R/C sebesar 1.33 (go-project), sesuai upa h tenaga-kerja luar keluarga yang dibayarkan. Jika memperhitungkan upah tenaga-kerja dalam keluarga, maka jumlah pendapatan mencapai 17.20%, dan pengeluaran-nya 82.80%, sehingga diperoleh nilai R/C sebesar 1.21 (go-project). Berdasarkan analisis nilai R/C, maka usahatani kedelai untuk Kabupaten Garut dan Kabupaten Ponorogo adalah tidak- layak (no-go- Project), dengan nilai R/C <1.
Tabel 7.1. Analisis Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001, Berdasarkan Upah Tenaga Ke rja yang Dibayarkan (%) PETANI
Pengeluaran Pendapatan Benih Pestisida Pupuk
1.LampungTengah 2.Garut 3.Gunung-Kidul 4.Wonogiri 5.Ponorogo 6.Pasuruan Indonesia
41.1 -13.7 39.2 36.2 -21.6 15.2 24.6
4.8 6.0 5.8 4.2 8.4 5.7 5.4
4.4 6.2 4.7 4.0 11.0 6.4 5.5
8.3 24.4 10.8 7.8 28.0 6.7 10.8
R/C Upah TKLK 11.9 33.2 13.2 8.8 28.4 18.7 16.0
Biaya Total 29.5 44.0 26.3 39.1 45.8 47.3 37.8
1.70 0.88 1.64 1.57 0.82 1.18 1.33
Tabel 7.2. Analisis Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001, Berdasarkan Upah Tenaga Ke rja yang Diperhitungkan (%) PETANI 1.LampungTngh 2.Garut 3.Gunung-Kidul 4.Wonogiri 5.Ponorogo 6.Pasuruan Indonesia
Pendapatan 31.9 -27.2 31.0 29.5 -34.5 12.2 17.2
Pengeluaran Benih Pestisida 4.8 4.4 6.0 6.2 5.8 4.7 4.2 4.0 8.4 11.0 5.7 6.4 5.4 5.5
R/C Pupuk 8.3 24.4 10.8 7.8 28.0 6.7 10.8
Upah TKDK 9.2 13.4 8.3 6.6 12.9 3.1 7.4
Upah TKLK 11.9 33.2 13.2 8.8 28.4 18.7 16.0
Biaya Total 29.5 44.0 26.3 39.1 45.8 47.3 37.8
1.47 0.79 1.45 1.42 0.74 1.14 1.21
232
Pada Diagram 7.1. dan Diagram 7.2, nilai R/C usahatani kedelai di Indonesia, berdasarkan upah tenaga kerja yang dibayarkan adalah 1.33, sedangkan berdasarkan upah tenaga kerja yang diperhitungkan adalah 1.21.
Diagram 7.1.
Nilai R/C Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001, Berdasarkan Upah Tenaga Ke rja yang Dibaya rkan
Indonesia : R/C = 1.33 5,5 5,4
24,6
10,8 16,0
37,8
Benih
Diagram 7.2.
Pestisida
Pupuk
Upah TKLk
Biaya
Pendapatan
Nilai R/C Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001, Berdas arkan Upah Tenaga -Kerja yang Diperhitungkan
Indonesia : R/C = 1.21
5,5 17,2
5,4 10,8 16,0
37,8
Benih
Pestisida
Pupuk
7,4
Upah TKLk
Upah TKDk
Biaya
Pendapatan
233
Tabel 7.3. memperlihatkan status pemilikan dan type lahan di Indonesia, berdasarkan skala usaha kecil (<=0.50 ha, sedang (0.51-0.99 ha), dan menengah (>=1.00 ha). Luas areal tanam / panen mencapai 0.78 ha, dimana status lahannya adalah
lahan milik sendiri 0.64 ha dan lahan sakap / sewa
0.16 ha,
sedangkan type lahan-nya adalah lahan sawah irigasi 0.60 ha dan lahan tada h hujan / tegal-pekarangan 0.20 ha. Tabel 7.3. Status Pe milikan dan Type Lahan di Indonesia Tahun 2001 Petani
1.LampungTengah 2.Garut
3.GunungKidul 4.Wonogiri
5.Ponorogo
6.Pasuruan
Indonesia
Skala Usaha (Ha) <=0.5 0.51-0.99 >=1.0 <=0.5 0.51-0.99 >=1.0 <=0.5 0.51-0.99 >=1.0 <=0.5 0.51-0.99 >=1.0 <=0.5 0.51-0.99 >=1.0 <=0.5 0.51-0.99 >=1.0 Rata-2
Luas Areal Tanam (Ha) 0.43 0.68 1.84 0.32 0.67 1.21 0.34 0.77 1.59 0.39 0.73 1.25 0.29 0.71 1.21 0.34 0.71 2.25 0.78
(Ha) LuasLhn Milik Sendiri (Ha) 0.34 0.58 1.66 0.22 0.44 0.95 0.17 0.54 1.37 0.31 0.56 1.13 0.21 0.58 0.79 0.32 0.55 1.94 0.64
LuasLhn Sakap & Sewa (Ha) 0.11 0.12 0.20 0.11 0.26 0.28 0.19 0.25 0.24 0.09 0.19 0.14 0.09 0.15 0.43 0.04 0.18 0.33 0.16
LuasLhn Sawah Irigasi (Ha) 0.39 0.64 1.41 0.02 0.02 0.09 0.25 0.63 1.10 0.40 0.74 1.26 0.26 0.61 1.04 0.35 0.72 2.26 0.60
LuasLhn TdhHjn& Tgl/Pkrngn (Ha) 0.07 0.07 0.46 0.33 0.68 1.15 0.12 0.18 0.52 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.20 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.20
234
Untuk menghitung tenaga-kerja dalam dan luar keluarga, dapat diukur dengan hari orang kerja perhari (HOK), sehingga diperlukan perhitungan jam kerja pada usahatani kedelai, seperti terlihat pada Tabel 7.4. dan Tabel 7.5. berikut ini. Lamanya jam kerja perhari untuk tenaga kerja dalam dan luar keluarga adalah 5.00 HOK dan 4.90 HOK. Tabel 7.4. Jam Kerja Rata-Rata Tenaga Kerja Dalam Keluarga Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001 Jam PETANI 1.Lampung-Tengah 2.Garut 3.Gunung-Kidul 4.Wonogiri 5.Ponorogo 6.Pasuruan Indonesia
Jam Kerja TKDK Laki2 Wani ta 7.2 7.2 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.1 6.6 6.6 4.4 4.4 4.9 4.9 5.6 5.6
Anak2
Ternak 7.1 5.3 4.9 6.4 4.3 6.3 5.6
3.7 0.0 2.5 3.5 2.4 2.3 3.1
Jam Kerja TKDK Ratarata 6.3 4.0 4.4 5.8 3.9 4.6 5.0
Tabel 7.5. Jam Kerja Rata-Rata Tenaga Kerja Luar Keluarga Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001 Jam PETANI 1.Lampung-Tengah 2.Garut 3.Gunung-Kidul 4.Wonogiri 5.Ponorogo 6.Pasuruan Indonesia
Jam Kerja TKLK Laki2 Wani ta 7.2 7.2 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.1 6.6 6.6 4.4 4.4 4.9 4.9 5.6 5.6
Anak2
Ternak 7.9 5.5 4.7 6.7 4.3 5.0 5.4
3.7 2.7 2.5 3.4 2.3 2.5 2.8
Jam Kerja TKLK Ratarata 6.5 4.8 4.3 5.8 3.8 4.3 4.9
235
Luas areal tanam / panen usahatani kedelai di Indonesia dapat digambarkan seperti pada Diagram 7.3, dimana rata-rata-nya adalah seluas 0.78 ha. Kabupaten terdiri dari: (1) LampungTenga h – Lampung, (2) Garut – Jawa Barat, (3) GunungKidul – DIY, (4) Wonogiri – Jawa Tengah, (5) Ponorogo – Jawa Timur, (6) Pasuruan – Jawa Timur, dan (7) Indonesia (jumlah total).
Diagram 7.3.
Luas Areal Tanam/Panen Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001 (Ha) Luas Lahan Garapan Indonesia
(HA) 1,00 0,90 0,80 0,70 0,60 0,50 0,40 0,30 0,20 0,10 0,00
1
2
3
4
5
6
Kabupaten LArTn
LMlkS
LSw/LSk
LSwIr
LTH/LTP
7
