Kerangka kerja penghitungan cadangan karbon secara menyeluruh
Andree Ekadinata, Meine van Noordwijk and Ujjwal Pradhan
• Gambaran umum penghitungan cadangan karbon secara menyeluruh dari AFOLU • Penghitungan cadangan karbon dengan Rapid Carbon Stock Appraisal (RACSA) • Contoh hasil penerapan RACSA • Implementasi RACSA pada berbagai kegiatan • Implementasi strategis penghitungan karbon secara menyeluruh: ekonomi, sosial dan tenurial
Gambaran umum penghitungan cadangan karbon secara menyeluruh dari AFOLU
Kuantifikasi dan monitoring • Sebagai dasar untuk menentukan baseline • Untuk menunjukkan bahwa ada additionality (pengurangan emisi dari deforestasi dan degradasi) dibandingkan baseline • Deteksi kebocoran/leakage (terjadinya peningkatan emisi dari deforestasi dan degradasi di tempat lain dikarenakan adanya proyek REDD dalam skala subnasional) • Mendemonstrasikan permanence dalam periode waktu yang disetujui
Total accounting frameworks IPCC Guidelines 2006 for AFOLU •
All carbon pools: living biomass (aboveground and belowground), dead organic matters (litter and necromass) and soil carbon
•
All 6 land use categories: Forest land, cropland, wetland, grassland, settlement, other land
• All transition between land use categories (remains and converted) • Disaggregation-aggregation, stratification by climatic or other ecological regions, forest types, land-use or forestry practices, fuelwood gathering patterns, etc • Tier definitions for methods in AFOLU: from simplest (Tier 1) to the most sophisticated (Tier 3) • Choice of methods (gain-loss vs stock changes) and choice of activity data
Penghitungan cadangan karbon dengan Rapid Carbon Stock Appraisal (RACSA)
Persamaan generik ∆C = ∑ij Aij [∆Cij LB + ∆Cij DOM + ∆Cij SOILS] / Tij ∆C = perubahan tahunan cadangan karbon keseluruhan, ton C/tahun
Aij = luas dari tipe penggunaan lahan i yang berubah menjadi j (ha) ∆Cij LB = perubahan cadangan karbon pada biomasa hidup dari perubahan tipe penggunaan lahan i menjadi j (ton C/ha)
∆Cij DOM = perubahan cadangan karbon pada
bahan oganik mati dari perubahan penggunaan lahan dari tipe i menjadi j (ton C/ha)
∆Cij SOILS = perubahan cadangan karbon dalam tanah dari perubahan penggunan lahan tipe i menjadi j (ton C/ha)
Tij = periode waktu yang ditetapkan untuk pengukuran dan pemantauan, tahun.
1
Initial discussion on land cover land use and land use system
2
Land uses system stratification and zonation
Designing sample plot
3
BIOPHYSIC
C-stock measurement in plot level
Calculation of Time averaged C-stock
4
RACSA
Data acquisition and ground truthing
Satellite image interpretation
Land cover change analysis
5
Scaling up measurement at landscape level
6
SPATIAL ANALYSIS
Variability at landscape level
Sistem Penggunaan Lahan • Penggunaan lahan (land use) mengacu kepada aktifitas manusia pada lahan tertentu • Tutupan lahan (land cover) mengacu pada tipe vegetasi yang ada pada lahan tertentu • Zonasi mengacu pada zonasi biofisik atau kebijakan yang mempengaruhi tutupan dan pengelolaan lahan • Sistem pengunaan lahan (SPL) menggabungkan ketiganya, termasuk siklus perubahan vegetasi dan aktifitas pengelolaan (penanaman, pemanenan)
Sistem penggunaan lahan dan cadangan karbon • Jenis vegetasi yang membentuk tutupan lahan menentukan besarnya cadangan karbon dan kemampuannya dalam menambat karbon • Aktivitas dalam sebuah tipe penggunaan lahan umumnya berpengaruh pada perubahan cadangan karbon (emisi atau penambatan karbon) • Sistem pengunaan lahan – panjang rotasi dan tipe mempengaruhi rata-rata cadangan karbon (time-averaged Cstock)
Definisi kawasan hutan berdasarkan kanopi
Definisi kawasan hutan berdasarkan institusi
BUKAN KAWASAN HUTAN TANPA POHON
POHON DI LUAR KAWASAN HUTAN
KAWASAN HUTAN DENGAN POHON
KAWASAN HUTAN TANPA POHON
TOTAL AREA Agroforestry, perkebunan, dll
Tebang buka/ penanaman kembali termasuk definisi hutan; tanpa batas waktu penanaman kembali
Landscape: Designation vs Actual
Time averaged C-stock Cadangan C per siklus tanam, Mg ha-1
Hilang viaT&B
Perolehan via aforestasi
230
Tertinggal di lahan
200 Tebang & Bakar 160 120 Agroforest 80
Tebang
80
40
Rata-rata C per siklus tanam, Mg ha-1
240
HUTAN ALAMI
29
0 0
10
20
30
40 (IPCC, 2001, hal 209)
Time averaged C-stock dari berbagai sistem penggunaan lahan 600
C-stock t/ha
500 400 300 200
Degradation, - 300 t/ha Deforestation - 5 t/ha
Trees Understorey Necromass Litter Soil (S) 0-5 cm S, 5-10 cm S, 10-20 cm S, 20-30 cm
100 0
(Tomich et al. , 1998)
Interpretasi citra satelit berbasis objek Spectral info: - Digital number - Texture and variation, etc
Spatial info: - size - shape - location - etc
Neighborhood info: - Distance to - Association with
Objects, levels and hierarchy
Level 3
Level 2
Level 1
• Area is segmented into objects which have less variation within than between objects • Higher segmentation level allows more variation than lower
Contoh hasil penerapan RACSA
Klasifikasi Sistem Penggunaan Lahan
Peta Penutupan Lahan Propinsi Jambi 1990s
Peta Penutupan Lahan Propinsi Jambi 2000s
Peta Peta Penutupan Tutupan Lahan Lahan Propinsi Propinsi Jambi Jambi tahun 2005 2005
Cadangan Karbon Pada Setiap Sistem Penggunaan Lahan
Peta Cadangan Cadangan Karbon Karbon Propinsi Propinsi Jambi Jambi 1990s Tahun 1990
Peta Cadangan Cadangan Karbon Karbon Propinsi Propinsi Jambi Jambi 2000s Tahun 2000
Peta Cadangan Cadangan Karbon Karbon Propinsi Propinsi Jambi Jambi Tahun 2005 2005
Peta Emisi Propinsi Jambi 1990-2005
Implementasi RACSA pada beberapa kegiatan penelitian
Accountability and Local Level Initiative for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in Indonesia (ALLREDDI) To assist Indonesia to account for land-use based greenhouse gas emissions and to be ready to use international economic ‘REDD’ incentives for emission reduction in its decision making at the local and national levels • National baseline using existing data – minimum data gap filling - National Forest Inventory – TSP, PSP • Capacity building – national and regions • Sub-national baselines within a nested system and REDD scheme in 5 areas
National Forest Inventory of Indonesia as part of Forest Resource Assessment
KALIMANTAN SELATAN
2.735 TSP/PSP systematically sampled throughout Indonesia
Sistem Penggunaan Lahan • Natural Forest: undisturbed, low logging intensity, high logging intensity • Swamp forest and mangrove: undisturbed, low logging intensity, high logging intensity
• Timber tree-based system (monoculture): teak, sengon, acacia, eucalyptus, mahogany, rubber, etc.
• Non-timber tree-based system (monoculture): oil palm, coconut, horticulture, etc
• Mixed/multistrata tree-based system dominated by non-timber species: coffee, cocoa, coconut
• Mixed/multistrata tree-based system dominated by timber species: rubber
• • • • •
Mixed/multistrata system: no dominant species Bush/shrub Grassland: imperata, savanna Bareland Settlement
Implementasi strategis penghitungan karbon secara menyeluruh: ekonomi, sosial dan tenurial
Abatement cost analysis Remote sensing data interpretation and spatial analysis Time-averaged Cstock of land use systems
LULCC matrix
Land use/ cover C-stock
Land use/ cover
Net present value Time 1
Private and social profitability: Net Present Value of land use
3.67 *
C-stock Net present value
∆ timeaveraged C-stock= CO2 emission
Time 2
NPVTime 2 – NPVTime1 CstockTime 1 – CstockTime 2
∆ NPV= economic gain
in $ / t CO2eq
Jambi (lahan gambut tidak diperhitungkan) Total: 7.3 t CO2 / ha / year, Abatement costs ($/t CO2-eq) (log scale)
1000
f to a r
63.6% below 5$/t CO2
e bb r u R be rub
r ve ber o t to ged rub s e r Log t to o f es er fo r ov
100
r ve ub o ed shr g ing ged g t to g o g g L es Lo Lo palm fo r oil
10
1
Kelapa sawit dan karet pada tanah mineral 0.1 0
1
2
3
4
5
Net cumulative emissions (t CO2-eq/ha/year)
6
7
8
Jambi (emisi dari lahan gambut diperhitungkan)
Total : 31.2 t CO2 / ha / year, Abatement costs ($/t CO2) (log scale)
1000
92.7% below 5$/t CO2
100
l ua n an o b t a t h ru e s d p nd e t a es ing r Fo opp cr
10
1
er v r o o e d tt bb a alm u ge ber e p r g l p oi d t Lo rub t to e o t a t n s t to pe re me ea r o e p e F ttl d ov e t se d s e e g r g Fo Lo
0.1
0.01
0.001 0
5
10
15
20
Net cumulative emissions (t CO2-eq/ha/year)
25
30
f
es or
t
Abatement costs ($/t CO2) (log scale)
1000
l
ua nn a to rub eat d sh p ted an respping o F ro c
100 10 1 0.1
0.01
Abatement costs ($/tCO2-eq) (log scale)
100
est For
10
t
te
ed gg Lo
o
ra to g
and ssl
g gin Log
t res r fo e v o n ged atio Log plant to
Large differences in per ha emissions between the three provinces
0.1 0.01
East Kalimantan Logged over forest to shrub Logging Logged over forest to oil palm Logged over forest to rubber
100
Rubber AF to rubber
10 1 0.1 0.01
Jambi (excl. peat)
0.001 1000
l nua o an t AF t fee es For pping to cof cro orest ging F Log
100
(log scale)
lm
1
0.001 1000
Abatement costs ($/t CO2-eq) (log scale)
at
pa
t to
Jambi (incl. peat lands)
0.001 1000
Abatement costs ($/t CO2-eq)
r es Fo
e dp
il oo
eat
p ver a b o e b p ed r ru gg ubbe to ted ent o s t e a L r m r pe to Fo ettle s ver er
10 1 0.1 0.01
Lampung
0.001 0
5
10
15
20
25
Net cumulative emissions (t CO2-eq/ha/year)
30
Questions regarding carbon rights • Carbon markets has brought the issue of carbon right to the forefront • Key questions are: 1. Who has, or can claim the right to carbon or “sell carbon” or engage in co-investment in emission reduction efforts (local communities, concessionaire, forest management unit, local government, national government)? 2. Who has or can claim the right to receive payments for avoided damage? and 3. Who decide who has the right to carbon? • These question point to the need for resolving land tenure and other natural resource rights, forest management rights, stakeholders rights, understanding customary norms and practices, perhaps free and prior informed consent, and/or a process of negotiation an compromise over shared benefits
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