INDONESIA DI TAHUN 2011: MENGHADAPI RENTANNYA EKONOMI GLOBAL
FAUZI ICHSAN MANAGING DIRECTOR & SENIOR ECONOMIST
SEPTEMBER 2011
ISU TERKINI: “KRISIS FINANSIAL EROPA DAN AMERIKA”
•
Pesimisme IMF atas pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia, terutama di AS, Eropa dan Jepang
•
Krisis ekonomi di Yunani, Irlandia, Portugal, Spanyol dan Itali yang memicu krisis finansial global
•
Rentannya perbankan Eropa terhadap risiko gagal bayar Yunani, Irlandia dan Portugal
•
Terbatasnya kemampuan kebijakan fiskal dan moneter untuk keluar dari krisis di AS dan Eropa
•
Konflik politik di AS dan lambannya kesepakatan kebijakan antara pemimpin negara Euro
Major heading
2
EKONOMI GLOBAL: “IMF MEMANGKAS PREDIKSI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI GLOBAL”
Pertumbuhan PDB (%): Cina, India, dan Indonesia terlindungi dari rentannya ekonomi global
2008
2009
2010
2011P
2012P
2013P
Amerika Serikat
0.4
-2.6
2.8
1.6
2.0
2.5
Zona Euro
0.6
-4.1
1.7
1.8
1.5
2.3
Jepang
-0.7
-5.2
3.9
-0.4
2.5
2.0
Cina
9.0
9.2
10.3
9.3
10.0
9.8
India
6.7
8.0
8.5
7.7
8.3
8.5
Korea Selatan
2.3
0.3
6.2
3.5
4.0
4.6
Indonesia
6.1
4.5
6.1
6.5
7.0
7.1
Thailand
2.6
-2.3
7.8
3.2
4.8
5.5
Malaysia
4.6
-1.7
7.2
4.2
4.4
5.0
Singapura
1.1
-0.8
14.5
4.8
4.6
5.0
Dunia*
3.0
-0.7
5.1
4.0
4.0
N/A
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research, * IMF Major heading
3
BURSA SAHAM DI EMERGING MARKETS: “MELEMAH KARENA KRISIS EURO DAN AS”
Indeks bursa saham Cina, India, Brasil, Indonesia dan Amerika Serikat (dalam USD): JanJan 2006 = 100
500
Bursa saham global terpuruk karena krisis Euro dan Yunani
Bursa saham global menguat karena prospek pemulihan ekonomi global di tahun 2010
Krisis KPR sub-prime di AS memukul bursa saham global
400 300 200 100
Indonesia
Cina
India
Brasil
Jul
Apr
Jan-11
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-10
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-09
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-08
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-07
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-06
0
Amerika Serikat
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
4
MATA UANG GLOBAL TERHADAP USD: “MATA UANG SAFE HEAVEN MENGUAT”
“Dipengaruhi aliran modal antar-negara” •
Terpuruknya bursa saham global memicu aliran modal keluar dari emerging markets
•
Keluarnya modal asing dari emerging markets memperlemah mata uang emerging markets dan memperkuat mata uang safe heaven
•
Mata uang safe heaven termasuk yen Jepang, franc Swiss, yuan Cina dan US dolar
•
US dolar menguat terhadap mata uang emerging markets karena US treasury bonds dianggap safe heaven dalam krisis
•
Namun paska-krisis mata uang emerging markets diperkirakan akan pulih kembali
Sumber: Bloomberg Major heading
5
HARGA KOMODITAS GLOBAL: “INFLASI PANGAN DAN LOGAM MULIA”
“Inflasi komoditas” Kenaikan harga komoditas dalam USD Sep-2010 ke Sep-2011 Perak
34
Jagung
•
“Global warming” memukul panen pangan yang memicu inflasi pangan global, yang memicu kenaikan suku bunga di emerging markets tahun 2010
•
Rentannya pasar modal global di tahun 2011, memicu kenaikan harga precious metal, emas dan perak, sebagai “aset aman”
•
Namun prospek melemahnya ekonomi global membatasi kenaikan harga komoditas
•
Harga komoditas diperkirakan stabil atau naik di tahun 2012, sesuai prospek ekonomi yang membaik di 2013
31
Gula
29
Kopi
27
Minyak Brent
25
Emas
24
Gas
24
Kedelai
12
Orange juice
6 0
10
20
30
40
% Sumber: Bloomberg Major heading
6
SOVEREIGN CDS: “CDS NEGARA ASIA NAIK, CDS NEGARA PIGS NAIK TAJAM” Sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) negara Asia naik, namun CDS negara PIGS naik tajam akibat krisis Euro
Sovereign CDS untuk SUN jangka 5 tahun 5000 Lehman brothers bankrut, memicu panik di pasar finansial
4000 3000 2000 1000
Indonesia
Thailand
Portugal
Spanyol
Jul
Apr
Jan-11
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-10
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-09
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-08
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-07
Oct
Jul
Apr
0 Jan-06
bps
Krisis Euro memburuk, kemungkinan pemerintah Yunani menunggak membesar
Yunani Sumber: Bloomberg
Major heading
7
PROYEKSI SUKU BUNGA GLOBAL: “SUKU BUNGA GLOBAL DIPERKIRAKAN TETAP RENDAH”
Suku bunga yang mendekati nol di Amerika Serikat, Eropa, dan Jepang membantu mempertahankan suku bunga global yang rendah, serta mengurangi tekanan terhadap BI untuk segera menaikkan BI rate
26/9/2011
T3P
T4P
T1 T1-12P
T2P
T3P
T4P
Tren
USD (FFTR)
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
↔
EUR (Refi)
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.75
2.00
↑
JPY (O/N)
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
↔
GBP (Base rate)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
↔
AUD (RBA call)
4.75
4.75
4.75
5.00
5.25
5.25
5.25
↑
IDR (BI rate)
6.75
6.75
6.75
7.25
7.25
7.25
7.25
↑
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
8
PROYEKSI MATA UANG GLOBAL: PELEMAHAN SEMENTARA MATA UANG ASIA” ASIA “PELEMAHAN
Semester 2,, 2011: mata uang Asia bergejolak karena krisis Eropa dan AS Semester 1, 2012: mata uang Asia kembali menguat ditopang dit pertumbuhan PDB dan aliran masuk modal asing
26/9/2011
T3-11P
T4P
T1 T1-12P
T2
T3
T4
Tren
EUR/USD
1.35
1.34
1.28
1.30
1.35
1.38
1.42
↑
USD/JPY
76
77
76
76
75
74
74
↓
AUD/USD
0.98
0.96
0.91
0.94
0.96
1.00
1.05
↑
GBP/USD
1.56
1.52
1.48
1.51
1.55
1.60
1.65
↑
USD/CNY
6.40
6.39
6.31
6.24
6.18
6.12
6.06
↓
USD/KRW
1,193
1,200
1,200
1,120
1,075
1,025
1,000
↓
USD/IDR
9,125
9,300
9,500
9,200
9,000
8,800
8,500
↓
USD/SGD
1.29
1.32
1.35
1.32
1.30
1.28
1.24
↓
USD/THB
31.1
31.0
32.0
31.0
30.5
30.0
29.5
↓
USD/MYR
3.18
3.20
3.30
3.20
3.15
3.10
3.00
↓
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
9
PROYEKSI KOMODITAS GLOBAL: “HARGA ENERGI AKAN TETAP TINGGI”
Tingginya harga komoditas global menguntungkan neraca pembayaran dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia
21/9/2011
T3P
T4P
T1-12P
T2P
Tren
Minyak bumi (NYMEX WTI) – USD/bl
86
90
95
97
102
↑
Batubara (API4) – USD/tonne
117
119
125
129
130
↑
1,782
1,725
1,950
1,900
1,800
↑
619
600
615
575
550
↓
3,077
3,150
3,200
3,400
3,600
↑
Emas (spot) – USD/oz Beras – Thailand USD/tonne CPO – MYR/tonne
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
10
KESIMPULAN FAKTOR GLOBAL: “RENTANNYA EKONOMI DUNIA”
•
Rapuhnya ekonomi AS dan Zona Eropa tidak akan berujung pada resesi global jilid kedua
•
Namun rendahnya suku bunga global dan melimpahnya elimpahnya likuiditas global tidak cukup untuk mendukung bursa saham global
•
Resiko terbesar adalah memburuknya volatilitas pasar global (akibat krisis Euro dan AS) yang memicu pelarian modal dari emerging markets, markets termasuk Indonesia
•
Kuncinya adalah seberapa efektif Uni Eropa, IMF dan ECB dapat meredam krisis Eropa yang bisa dipicu oleh menunggaknya Yunani
Major heading
11
Ekonomi domestik Indonesia: “Konsumsi domestik, komoditas, dan investasi infrastruktur”
Major heading
12
INDONESIA DI TAHUN 2011 DAN 2012: “OPTIMISME DOMESTIK VERSUS PESIMISME GLOBAL”
2008
2009
2010
2011P
2012P
1) Pertumbuhan PDB
6.0%
4.5%
6.1%
6.5%
7.0%
2) Inflasi (akhir tahun)
11.1%
2.8%
7.0%
6.0%
6.5%
9.8%
4.9%
5.1%
5.9%
6.9%
11,120
9,404
8,996
9,500
8,500
5) USD/IDR (rata-rata)
9,778
10,359
9,078
8,900
8,875
6) BI rate (akhir tahun)
9.25%
6.50%
6.50%
6.75%
7.25%
22.9
30.9
30.6
30.0
29.0
0.1
10.6
5.7
4.0
1.0
51.6
66.1
96.4
128.0
150.0
3) Inflasi (rata-rata) 4) USD/IDR (akhir tahun)
7) Neraca perdagangan (USD milyar) 8) Neraca transaksi berjalan (USD milyar) 9) Cadangan devisa (USD milyar)
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
13
PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: “LAJU PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI 2011 AKAN MENCAPAI RATA-RATA RATA PRA-KRISIS ASIA
Laju pertumbuhan PDB Rata-rata pertumbuhan PDB pra-krisis Asia: 6.5%
Devaluasi IDR akibat jatuhnya harga minyak dunia
Krisis finansial Asia yang berujung pada krisis ekonomi dan politik
Krisis finansial global yang bermuara pada krisis ekonomi global
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik, Standard Chartered Research Major heading
14
SEKTOR-SEKTOR BISNIS: “YANG TERBAIK DAN YANG TERBURUK”
Prospek sektor bisnis berdasarkan sektor ekonomi dan lingkungan usaha
Resiko & prospek
Karakteristik sektor
Sektor
Paling kebal terhadap krisis, sekarang tumbuh ditopang pertumbuhan PDB dan suku bunga global yang rendah
Melayani konsumer ritel secara langsung atau tidak langsung
Otomotif, rokok, semen, telekomunikasi, jasa persewaan, farmasi, pengepakan
Diuntungkan secara langsung oleh kenaikan harga komoditas global Sangat potensial namun bergantung pada kebijakan pemerintah Sangat potensial namun terhambat oleh kurang kondusifnya iklim invetasi domestik Industri yang sedang surut, dengan atau tanpa perdagangan bebas dengan Cina
Sektor pengekspor komoditas
CPO, batu bara, karet, coklat
Bagian dari paket kebijakan stimulus stimu & program infrastruktur pemerintah
Infrastruktur: jalan tol, listrik, pelabuhan, air bersih
Sektor pengekspor komoditas yang sarat regulasi, kerap menghadapi ketidakpastian ketidakp hukum dan masalah otonomi daerah
Minyak bumi, gas, pertambangan
Padat tenaga kerja, bersaing dengan Cina, C India, Vietnam,, dan Kamboja
Pakaian jadi, tekstil, sepatu, mainan, elektronik hilir
Major heading
15
PASAR SAHAM: “FUNDAMENTAL LOKAL BAIK, SENTIMEN GLOBAL BURUK”
“Dampak krisis Eropa dan Amerika” Rasio price-earning bursa saham – 26 September 2011 (berdasarkan estimasi laba 2011)
15 10
14
14
13
12
12
11
10
9
•
Krisis finansial global memiliki dua dampak bagi Indonesia: di sektor rill dan sektor finansial
•
Walaupun fundamental ekonomi Asia lebih baik dari AS dan Eropa, krisis finansial di AS dan Eropa berdampak buruk bagi pasar finansial Asia, termasuk Indonesia
•
Akibat pelarian modal global ke aset safe heaven, IDR dan IHSG terpuruk, walaupun fundamental ekonomi Indonesia baik
•
Dalam jangka pendek, sentimen investor menentukan. Jangka panjang, fundamental ekonomi menentukan
•
Setelah krisis Eropa mereda, aliran modal global ke Indonesia akan kembali
9 5
5 0
Sumber: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Major heading
16
PASAR SAHAM: “FUNDAMENTAL LOKAL POSITIF, TAPI SENTIMEN GLOBAL NEGATIF”
Perubahan
Harga
Target
PE ratio
9/10 ke 9/11
26/9/2011(IDR) (IDR)
Konsensus (IDR)*
(perkiraan laba 2011)
JSE Indeks
-4.4%
3,316
N/A
12.9
Adaro
0.0%
1,520
2,680
10.2
Adira Finance
2.5%
9,600
N/A
N/A
Astra Int.
-1.9%
57,000
77,441
14.2
Bank BCA
9.7%
7,350
8,385
19.1
-15.9%
5,500
8,572
11.1
Bank Rakyat Ind.
5.4%
5,350
7,974
10.8
Bumi Resources
-12.1%
2,000
3,614
10.7
Holcim
-30.0%
1,680
2,442
14.1
Indocement
-37.4%
11,950
18,832
13.1
Indofood
-17.4%
4,500
6,357
12.5
London Sumatra
-12.4%
1,760
2,945
8.2
United Tractors
0.0%
19,700
28,738
14.8
Bank Mandiri
Sumber: Bloomberg, * Target harga rata-rata para analis yang disurvei oleh Bloomberg Major heading
17
RESIKO DOMESTIK: “PELARIAN MODAL DARI INDONESIA”
“Ancaman pelarian modal” Investasi asing di obligasi pemerintah Indonesia dan SBI (USD milyar)
•
Sampai dengan akhir Agustus 2011, investasi asing di obligasi pemerintah Indonesia dan SBI mencapai USD 35.2 milyar
•
Sementara itu, investor asing menguasai hampir sekitar 40% dari kapitalisasi bursa saham Indonesia (USD 405 milyar)– walaupun lebih dari separuh invetasi asing ini adalah investasi jangka panjang
•
Resiko pelarian modal selalu ada karena krisis finansial global terjadi, yang mendorong investor global untuk beralih ke aset-aset yang lebih aman
•
Perlu diperhatikan bahwa sebagian besar investasi asing ke bursa saham lebih bersifat “strategis” (jangka panjang) ketimbang jangka pendek
•
BI harus terus meningkatkan cadangan devisa yang dimilikinya untuk meminimumkan resiko pelarian modal
Feb Feb-09 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-11 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Govt. bonds
SBI
Cadangan devisa (USD milyar): terus meningkat dengan masuknya arus modal
150 120 90 60
Jul
Apr
Jan-11
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-10
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-09
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-08
30
Sumber: Kementrian Keuangan, Bank Indonesia Major heading
18
BEBERAPA INDIKATOR RESIKO INDONESIA: “LEBIH BAIK DIBANDING BANYAK NEGARA DENGAN PERINGKAT INVESTMENT-GRADE” INVESTMENT
Sebagian besar indikator resiko Indonesia menunjukkan perbaikan dalam 10 tahun terakhir
Rasio defisit fiskal terhadap PDB (%)
2011P -1.5
-1.6
-1.3
-0.6 2010
2009
-0.1 2008
2007
2006 -0.9
-2.4
-2.0 -2.5
-1.1 -1.7
-1.3
-1.5
-1.2
-1.0
-0.52005
2004
2003
2002
2001
-0.5
2000
0.0
-3.0
Sumber: Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik Major heading
19
PERINGKAT SOVEREIGN RISK INDONESIA: “PERINGKAT INVESTASI PALING LAMBAT TAHUN 2012” Akumulasi cadangan devisa, manajemen kebijakan fiskal yang baik, dan surplus neraca pembayaran memungkinkan Indonesia untuk meraih status investment grade selambat-lambatnya selambat di tahun 2012
A+
A1
A
A2
A-
A3
BBB+
Baa1
BBB
Baa2
Investment grade
BBB-
Baa3
Caa3
CC
Ca
S&P (LHS)
Fitch (LHS)
2011
CCC-
2010
Caa2
2009
CCC
2008
Caa1
2007
CCC+
2006
B3
2005
B-
2004
B2
2003
B
2002
B1
2001
B+
2000
Ba3
1999
BB-
1998
Ba2
1997
BB
1996
Ba1
1995
BB+
Moody's (RHS)
Major heading
20
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