Calderon C and Serven L The Effect of Infrastructure Development on Growth and Income Distribution. Working Paper of the central Bank of

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184 Okpora JO. 2007. Strategic Export Orientation and Internasionization Barriers: Evidence from SMEs in a Developing Economy. Journal of International Business and Cultural Studies. Oktaviani R. 2000. The Impact of APEC Trade Liberalization on Indonesian Economy and Its Agricultural Sektor [disertasi]. The Sidney University. Oktaviani R. 2008. Model Ekonomi Keseimbangan Umum: Teori dan Aplikasinya di Indonesia. Bogor: FEM IPB. Oktaviani R, Dedi BH, Hermanto S, and Sahara. 2007. Impact of a Lower Oil Subsidy on Indonesia Macroeconomic Performance Agricultural Sector and Poverty Incidence: A Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. MPIA Working Paper 2007-08. Peacock AT and Wiseman J. 1961. The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom. London: Oxford University Press. Pei-Sun FZ. 2009. The Relationship between Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Comparing Developing and Developed Countries [tesis]. Dalarna University: School of Economics and Social Sciences. Priyarsono DS, Widyastutik, dan Henny R. 2008. Ekonomi Publik. Jakarta: Universitas Terbuka. Ratnawati A dan Boediarso TW. 2009. Dukungan Kebijakan Fiskal terhadap Pembangunan Ekonomi Berkelanjutan Menghadapi Krisis Ekonomi Global. di dalam: Oktaviani et al, editor. Orange Book: Pembangunan Ekonomi Berkelanjutan dalam Menghadapi Krisis Global. Bogor: IPB Pr. hlm 3-37. Reinhart CM and Vincent MR. 2009. Fiscal Stimulus for Debt Intolerant Countries? Munich Personal RePEc Archive Paper No. 16973. Sahara. 2003. Dampak Kenaikan Harga Bahan Bakar Minyak, Tarif Dasar Listrik, Tarif Telephon dan Penyaluran Dana Kompensasi terhadap Ekonomi Makro dan Sektoral di Indonesia [tesis]. Bogor: Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor. Sahara dan Rina O. 2008. Penggunaan Program GEMPACK untuk Membangun Data Dasar dan Simulasi Model CGE. Bogor: FEM IPB. Sambodo MT. 2009. Stimulus Fiskal dan Efektivitas Kebijakan Fiskal. Harian Seputar Indonesia. Edisi 29 Januari 2009. Silva AK and Horridge M. 1996. Economic of Scale and Imperfect Competition in an Applied General Equilibrium Model of The Australian Economy. Working Paper of Centre of Policy Studies and Impact Project No OP-84. Australia: Monash University. Sitepu RK dan Bonar MS. 2004. Dampak Investasi SDM terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Kemiskinan di Indonesia: Pendekatan Model CGE. Bogor: Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor. Sudarsono. 1995. Pengantar Ekonomi Mikro. Jakarta: LPPPES.

185 Sugema I. 2001. Restrukturisasi Perbankan dan Instabilitas Fiskal dan Moneter. Bisnis dan Ekonomi Politik, 4(4):21-32. Stiglitz JE. 2000. Economics of the Public Sektor. Third Ed. New York: W.W. Norton & Company. Strulik H and Timo T. 2009. Fiscal Stimulus: A Neoclasical Perpective. Discussion Paper No. 421. Leibniz Universitet Hannover. Torrisi G. 2008. Piblic Infrastructure: Definition, Classification and Measurement Issues. DEMQ Working Paper, University of Catania. Yustika AE. 2008. Aneka Masalah Infrastruktur. www.bisnis.com

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187 Lampiran 1

Blok persamaan pada file input tablo Model CGE Indomini.

Blok Persamaan 1 ! Mukti Indomini model 2010 ! ! Excerpt 1 of TABLO input file: ! ! Sets and flows data! Set ! User categories: IO table columns ! IND # Industries # (padi,plwj,tbmln,karet,klpswt,kpteh,tbkckh,kebln,trkhsl,htnhsl,ikanhsl,mykgas,tm bgln,mkmnrk,tklbhn,kykts,kmppk,klgmyk,plkrtlg,smn,indln,lrkgs,air,bttntt,irgjjpe l,bgnln,dgg,htlrst,agkdrt,agkair,agkudr,kom,lbgug,swpsh,pmrth,jsln); ! subscript i ! FINALUSER # Final demanders # (Investment,Households,Government,Exports); USER # All users #= IND union FINALUSER; ! subscript u ! IMPUSER # Non-export demanders: users of imports # (padi,plwj,tbmln,karet,klpswt,kpteh,tbkckh,kebln,trkhsl,htnhsl,ikanhsl,mykgas,tm bgln,mkmnrk,tklbhn,kykts,kmppk,klgmyk,plkrtlg,smn,indln,lrkgs,air,bttntt,irgjjpe l,bgnln,dgg,htlrst,agkdrt,agkair,agkudr,kom,lbgug,swpsh,pmrth,jsln, Investment,Households,Government); Subset IMPUSER is subset of USER; IND is subset of IMPUSER; Set ! Input categories: IO table rows ! COM # Commodities # (padi,plwj,tbmln,karet,klpswt,kpteh,tbkckh,kebln, trkhsl,htnhsl,ikanhsl,mykgas,tmbgln,mkmnrk,tklbhn,kykts,kmppk,klgmyk, plkrtlg,smn,indln,lrkgs,air,bttntt,irgjjpel,bgnln,dgg,htlrst,agkdrt, agkair,agkudr,kom,lbgug,swpsh,pmrth,jsln); ! subscript c ! SRC # Source of commodities # (dom,imp); ! subscript s ! FAC # Primary factors # (Labor, Capital); ! subscript f ! Coefficient (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER) USE(c,s,u) # USE matrix #; (all,f,FAC)(all,i,IND) FACTOR(f,i) # Wages and profits #; (all,i,IND) V1PTX(i) # Production tax revenue #; (all,c,COM) V0MTX(c) # import tax revenue #; File BASEDATA # Flows Data File #; Read USE from file BASEDATA header "USE"; FACTOR from file BASEDATA header "1FAC"; V0MTX from file BASEDATA header "0TAR"; V1PTX from file BASEDATA header "1PTX"; Blok Persamaan 2 ! Excerpt 2 of TABLO input file: ! ! Useful aggregates of the base data !

188 Coefficient (all,c,COM)(all,u,USER) USE_S(c,u) # USE matrix, dom+imp together#; (all,u,USER) USE_CS(u) # Total user expenditure on goods #; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) SALES(c,s) # Total value of sales #; (all,i,IND) V1PRIM(i) # Wages plus profits #; (all,i,IND) V1TOT(i) # Industry Costs #; (all,c,COM) V0CIF(c) # Aggregate imports at border prices #; Formula (all,c,COM)(all,u,USER) USE_S(c,u) = sum{s,SRC,USE(c,s,u)}; (all,u,USER) USE_CS(u) = sum{c,COM,USE_S(c,u)}; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) SALES(c,s) = sum{u,USER,USE(c,s,u)}; (all,i,IND) V1PRIM(i) = sum{f,FAC,FACTOR(f,i)}; (all,i,IND) V1TOT(i) = V1PRIM(i) + sum{c,COM,USE_S(c,i)}; (all,c,COM) V0CIF(c) = SALES(c,"imp") - V0MTX(c); Blok Persamaan 3 ! Excerpt 3 of TABLO input file: ! ! Total demands for commodities ! Variable (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER) x(c,s,u) # Demand by user u for good c, source s #; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) x0(c,s) # Total demand for good c, source s #; Equation E_x0 (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) SALES(c,s)*x0(c,s)= sum{u,USER,USE(c,s,u)*x(c,s,u)}; Blok Persamaan 4 ! Excerpt 4 of TABLO input file: ! ! Import/Domestic sourcing decision for all non-export users! Variable (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC) p(c,s) # User price of good c, source s #; (all,c,COM)(all,u,IMPUSER) p_s(c,u) # User price of composite good c #; (all,c,COM)(all,u,IMPUSER) x_s(c,u) # Use of composite good c #; Coefficient (all,c,COM) SIGMA(c) # elasticity of substitution: domestic/imported #; (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER) SRCSHR(c,s,u) # imp/dom shares #; Read SIGMA from file BASEDATA header "ARM"; Formula (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER) SRCSHR(c,s,u) = USE(c,s,u)/USE_S(c,u); Equation E_x (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,IMPUSER) x(c,s,u) = x_s(c,u) - SIGMA(c)*[p(c,s) - p_s(c,u)]; Equation E_p_s (all,c,COM)(all,u,IMPUSER) p_s(c,u) = sum{s,SRC, SRCSHR(c,s,u)*p(c,s)};

189 Blok Persamaan 5 ! Excerpt 5 of TABLO input file: ! ! Demands for capital and Labor ! Variable (all,i,IND) x1prim(i) # Industry demand for primary-factor composite #; (all,i,IND) p1prim(i) # Price of primary factor composite #; (all,i,IND) x1lab(i) # Employment by industry #; p1lab # Economy-wide wage rate #; (all,i,IND) x1cap(i) # Current capital stock #; (all,i,IND) p1cap(i) # Rental price of capital #; Coefficient (all,i,IND) SIGMA1PRIM(i) # CES substitution, primary factors #; Read SIGMA1PRIM from file BASEDATA header "P028"; Equation E_x1lab (all,i,IND) x1lab(i) = x1prim(i) - SIGMA1PRIM(i)*[p1lab-p1prim(i)]; Equation E_x1cap (all,i,IND) x1cap(i) = x1prim(i) - SIGMA1PRIM(i)*[p1cap(i)-p1prim(i)]; Equation E_p1prim (all,i,IND) V1PRIM(i)*p1prim(i) = FACTOR("Labor",i)*p1lab + FACTOR("Capital",i)*p1cap(i); Blok Persamaan 6 ! Excerpt 6 of TABLO input file: ! ! Demands for composite inputs to production ! Variable (all,i,IND) x1tot(i) # Industry output #; (all,i,IND) a1prim(i) # All primary-factor augmenting technical change #; (all,i,IND) p1tot(i) # Unit cost of production #; Equation E_x1 # demand for commodity composites # (all,c,COM)(all,i,IND) x_s(c,i)= x1tot(i); Equation E_x1prim # demand for primary-factor composites # (all,i,IND) x1prim(i) = a1prim(i) + x1tot(i); Equation E_p1tot # cost of production = cost of all inputs # (all,i,IND) V1TOT(i)*[p1tot(i)+ x1tot(i)] = sum{c,COM,sum{s,SRC, USE(c,s,i)*[p(c,s) + x(c,s,i)]}} + FACTOR("Labor",i)*[p1lab + x1lab(i)] + FACTOR("Capital",i)*[p1cap(i)+ x1cap(i)]; Blok Persamaan 7 ! Excerpt 7 of TABLO input file: ! ! Household demands ! Variable p3tot # Consumer price index #; x3tot # Real household consumption #; w3tot # Nominal total household consumption #; Equation E_x3

190 (all,c,COM) x_s(c,"Households") + p_s(c,"Households") = w3tot; Equation E_x3tot USE_CS("Households")*x3tot = sum{c,COM, USE_S(c,"Households")*x_s(c,"Households")}; Equation E_p3tot USE_CS("Households")*p3tot = sum{c,COM, USE_S(c,"Households")*p_s(c,"Households")}; Blok Persamaan 8 ! Excerpt 8 of TABLO input file: ! ! Export demands ! Variable (all,c,COM) pworld(c) # World prices, measured in foreign currency #; (all,c,COM) f4q(c) # Quantity shift in foreign demand #; phi # Exchange rate, (local $)/(foreign $) #; Coefficient (all,c,COM) EXP_ELAST(c) # Export demand elasticities #; Read EXP_ELAST from file BASEDATA header "P018"; Equation E_x4a (all,c,COM) x(c,"dom","Exports") = f4q(c)-EXP_ELAST(c)*[{p(c,"dom")-phi}- pworld(c)]; Equation E_x4b (all,c,COM) x(c,"imp","Exports") = 0; Blok Persamaan 9 ! Excerpt 9 of TABLO input file: ! ! Market clearing and prices for domestic commodities ! Subset COM is subset of IND; Equation E_x1tot (all,c,COM) x1tot(c) = x0(c,"dom"); Variable (change)(all,c,COM) Delptxrate(c) # Ordinary change in rate of domestic tax #; Equation E_pA (all,c,COM) p(c,"dom") = p1tot(c) + 100*[V1TOT(c)/(V1TOT(c)+V1PTX(c))]*Delptxrate(c); Blok Persamaan 10 ! Excerpt 10 of TABLO input file: ! ! Prices for imported commodities ! Variable (change)(all,c,COM) Delmtxrate(c) # Ordinary change in rate of import tax #; Equation E_pB (all,c,COM) p(c,"imp") = pworld(c)+phi + 100*[V0CIF(c)/SALES(c,"imp")]*Delmtxrate(c); Blok Persamaan 11 ! Excerpt 11 of TABLO input file: !

191 ! GDP from income side ! Variable w0gdpinc # Nominal GDP from income side #; Coefficient V0GDPINC # GDP from income side #; Formula V0GDPINC = sum{i,IND, sum{f,FAC, FACTOR(f,i)}} + sum{c,COM, V1PTX(c) + V0MTX(c)}; Equation E_w0gdpinc V0GDPINC*w0gdpinc = sum{i,IND, FACTOR( "Labor",i)*[p1lab + x1lab(i)]} +sum{i,IND, FACTOR("Capital",i)*[p1cap(i) + x1cap(i)]} +sum{c,COM, 100*V1TOT(c)*Delptxrate(c) + V1PTX(c)*[x1tot(c)+ p1tot(c)]} +sum{c,COM, 100*V0CIF(c)*Delmtxrate(c) + V0MTX(c)*[x0(c,"imp")+pworld(c)+phi]}; Blok Persamaan 12 ! Excerpt 12 of TABLO input file: ! ! Expenditure-side GDP measures ! Variable w0gdpexp # Nominal GDP from expenditure side #; p0gdpexp # GDP price index, expenditure side #; x0gdpexp # Real GDP from expenditure side #; Coefficient V0GDPEXP # GDP from expenditure side #; Formula V0GDPEXP = sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)}} V0CIF(c)}; Equation E_w0gdpexp V0GDPEXP*w0gdpexp = sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)*[p(c,s)+x(c,s,u)]}} - V0CIF(c)*[x0(c,"imp")+ pworld(c)+phi]}; Equation E_p0gdpexp V0GDPEXP*p0gdpexp = sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC,sum{u,FINALUSER, USE(c,s,u)*p(c,s)}} V0CIF(c)*[pworld(c)+phi]}; Equation E_x0gdpexp x0gdpexp = w0gdpexp - p0gdpexp; Blok Persamaan 13 ! Excerpt 13 of TABLO input file: ! ! More macro variables ! Variable x4tot # Export volume index #; p4tot # Export price index #; p2tot # Investment price index #; x0cif_c # Import volume index, CIF prices #; (change) delB # (Balance of trade)/GDP #; Equation E_x4tot sum{c,COM, USE(c,"dom","Exports")*[x4tot - x(c,"dom","Exports")]} = 0;

192 Equation E_p4tot sum{c,COM, USE(c,"dom","Exports")*[p4tot - p(c,"dom")]} = 0; Equation E_p2tot sum{c,COM, sum{s,SRC, USE(c,s,"Investment")*[p2tot - p(c,s)]}} = 0; Equation E_x0cif_c sum{c,COM, V0CIF(c)*[x0cif_c - x0(c,"imp")]}=0; Equation E_delB 100*V0GDPEXP*delB= sum{c,COM, USE(c,"dom","Exports")*[p(c,"dom")+x(c,"dom","Exports")w0gdpexp] - V0CIF(c)*[x0(c,"imp")+ pworld(c)+phi-w0gdpexp]}; Blok Persamaan 14 ! Excerpt 14 of TABLO input file: ! ! Variables to assist factor market closure ! Variable realwage # Wage rate deflated by CPI #; employ # Aggregate employment #; (all,i,IND) gret(i) # Gross rate of return #; Equation E_realwage realwage = p1lab - p3tot; Equation E_employ sum{i,IND, FACTOR("Labor",i)*[employ - x1lab(i)]}=0; Equation E_gret (all,i,IND) gret(i) = p1cap(i) - p2tot; Blok Persamaan 15 ! Excerpt 15 of TABLO input file: ! ! Updating rules ! Update (all,c,COM)(all,s,SRC)(all,u,USER) USE(c,s,u) = p(c,s)*x(c,s,u); (all,i,IND) FACTOR("Labor",i) = p1lab*x1lab(i); (all,i,IND) FACTOR("Capital",i) = p1cap(i)*x1cap(i); (change)(all,c,COM) V0MTX(c) = V0CIF(c)*Delmtxrate(c) + 0.01*V0MTX(c)*[x0(c,"imp")+ pworld(c)+phi]; (change)(all,c,COM) V1PTX(c) = V1TOT(c)*Delptxrate(c) + 0.01*V1PTX(c)*[x1tot(c)+ p1tot(c)]; Blok Persamaan 16 ! Excerpt 16 of TABLO input file: ! ! Summarize and check data ! File (new) SUMMARY # output file for summary data #; Coefficient (all,c,COM) CHECK(c) # (costs + tax) - sales : should = 0 #; Formula (all,c,COM) CHECK(c) = V1TOT(c) + V1PTX(c) - SALES(c,"dom"); Set COSTCAT # cost categories # = SRC union FAC; Coefficient (all,c,COSTCAT)(all,i,IND) COSTMAT(c,i) # Summary of industry costs #; Formula (all,i,IND)(all,s,SRC) COSTMAT(s,i) = sum{c,COM,USE(c,s,i)};

193 (all,i,IND)(all,f,FAC) COSTMAT(f,i) = FACTOR(f,i); Write CHECK to file SUMMARY header "CHEK"; COSTMAT to file SUMMARY header "COST"; SALES to file SUMMARY header "SALE"; V1PRIM to file SUMMARY header "1PRM"; V1TOT to file SUMMARY header "1TOT"; V0CIF to file SUMMARY header "0CIF"; V0GDPEXP to file SUMMARY header "GDPE"; V0GDPINC to file SUMMARY header "GDPI"; Blok Persamaan 17 ! Excerpt 17 of TABLO input file: ! ! More summary data ! Set MAINUSER # broad user groups # (Intermediate, Investment, Households, Government, Exports); Subset FinalUser is subset of MAINUSER; Coefficient (all,c,COM)(all,u,MAINUSER) MAINSALES(c,u) # Summary of sales #; Formula (all,c,COM) MAINSALES(c,"Intermediate") = sum{i,IND,USE(c,"dom",i)}; (all,c,COM)(all,u,FINALUSER) MAINSALES(c,u) = USE(c,"dom",u); Coefficient (all,i,IND) CAPSHR(i) # Share of capital in primary factor costs #; Formula (all,i,IND) CAPSHR(i) = FACTOR("capital",i)/V1PRIM(i); Coefficient (all,c,COM) IMPSHR(c) # Share imports in local purchases #; Formula (all,c,COM) IMPSHR(c) = sum{u,IMPUSER,USE(c,"imp",u)}/sum{u,IMPUSER,USE_S(c,u)}; Write MAINSALES to file SUMMARY header "MSAL"; CAPSHR to file SUMMARY header "KSHR"; IMPSHR to file SUMMARY header "MSHR"; ! end of file !

194

195 Lampiran 2

Hasil simulasi dampak stimulus fiskal bidang infrastruktur padatkarya terhadap output domestik (x0dom), harga output (pdom) dan harga faktor primer komposit (p1prim) sektoral (%) Sektor

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36.

Padi Palawija Tanaman bahan makanan lainnya Karet Kelapa sawit Kopi dan teh Tembakau dan Cengkeh Hasil perkebunan dan pertanian lainnya Peternakan dan hasilnya Kehutanan dan hasilnya Perikanan dan hasilnya Minyak dan gas bumi Pertambangan dan penggalian lainnya Industri makanan, minuman dan rokok Industri tekstil dan bahan tekstil Industri bahan kayu dan kertas Industri kimia dan pupuk Industri pengilangan minyak Industri plastik, karet dan bukan logam Industri semen Industri lainnya Listrik dan gas Air bersih Bangunan tempat tinggal dan bukan tempat tinggal Irigasi, jalan, jembatan dan pelabuhan Bangunan lainnya Perdagangan Hotel dan restoran Angkutan darat dan penunjangnya Angkutan air Angkutan udara Komunikasi Lembaga keuangan Persewaan dan jasa perusahaan Pemerintahan umum Jasa lainnya

Keterangan: SR = jangka pendek (short-run) LR = jangka panjang (long-run)

Output domestik

Harga domestik

Harga faktor primer komposit

SR 4.59 5.17 3.80 3.88 4.55 3.58 4.37 3.78

LR 5.76 5.47 4.85 4.01 5.49 4.25 5.59 4.40

SR -3.88 -3.59 -4.34 -2.12 -3.62 -4.32 -3.53 -4.16

LR -0.42 -0.40 -0.15 -1.66 -1.27 -1.00 -0.98 -0.67

SR -1.65 -1.27 -2.12 0.67 -0.59 -1.91 -1.01 -1.68

LR 2.16 2.09 2.34 0.60 1.52 1.63 1.66 1.97

3.61 2.96 3.17 5.61 1.19

6.14 2.48 4.97 -3.26 1.42

-3.77 -4.52 -4.49 -1.4 4.78

-1.25 -0.63 -0.52 2.36 1.23

-0.89 -2.23 -2.17 -1.44 7.06

1.35 1.95 2.06 2.54 1.97

4.59

5.77

-5.03

-1.69

-2.42

1.60

4.48 3.95 5.31 4.54 3.85

4.16 3.47 4.47 3.29 4.04

-5.1 -5.51 -2.86 -4.76 -4.19

-2.19 -2.09 -0.89 -1.21 -1.71

-2.54 -3.01 -1.59 -2.52 -3.3

1.49 1.62 1.36 2.12 1.31

0.73 5.92 12.70 9.53 0.51

0.68 5.15 11.20 10.79 0.62

-4.28 -3.44 -5.35 -7.94 -6.46

-1.23 -1.71 -3.07 -5.23 -1.68

-5.82 -1.10 -0.80 -2.41 -8.67

1.60 1.51 1.91 0.78 1.53

0.26

0.44

-7.95

-1.71

-13.62

0.92

0.55 4.12 4.54 6.32 5.83 6.21 6.77 6.76 7.93 2.64 3.60

0.65 4.94 6.43 6.37 4.44 6.71 7.46 7.49 7.44 10.29 6.29

-7.51 -5.91 -5.15 -7.69 -7.69 -6.64 -7.87 -7.43 -6.89 -0.7 -2.16

-1.92 -2.35 -2.03 -3.34 -2.58 -2.68 -3.99 -4.04 -3.40 -2.63 -1.78

-13.42 -2.41 -1.89 -6.37 -10.55 -8.37 -2.44 -2.31 -2.00 4.35 1.61

0.85 1.62 1.28 1.06 1.31 0.76 2.04 1.62 2.20 -1.04 0.24

196 Lampiran 3

Hasil simulasi dampak stimulus fiskal bidang infrastruktur padatkarya terhadap permintaan tenaga kerja (x1lab) dan faktor primer komposit (x1prim) sektoral (%) Sektor

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36.



Tenaga kerja

Faktor primer komposit

SR 2.66 3.43 1.64 3.16 3.17 1.69 2.77 1.79 1.92 0.76 1.00 6.21 1.59 0.16 0.01 -0.71 1.23 0.08 -0.94 -5.02 2.04 3.90 0.15

LR 2.92 2.60 2.14 0.45 2.34 0.86 2.51 1.56 3.05 -0.37 2.11 -3.46 1.38 0.75 -0.93 -1.53 -0.70 -1.50 -1.13 -4.20 0.02 1.09 0.15

SR 2.18 2.75 1.41 1.49 2.14 1.2 1.97 1.39 1.23 0.59 0.8 5.61 1.19 0.11 0.01 -0.5 0.8 0.06 -0.6 -3.58 1.38 2.98 0.08

LR 3.33 3.04 2.44 1.62 3.07 1.85 3.17 2.00 3.70 0.12 2.56 -3.26 1.42 1.23 -0.30 -0.96 -0.01 -1.13 -0.42 -3.63 0.65 1.61 1.23

-4.27 -5.56 -5.25 0.25 0.92 -0.65 -1.26 -0.91 0.04 0.43 1.68 3.95 3.54

-3.19 -3.48 -3.28 0.30 1.56 -0.46 -2.22 -0.17 0.62 0.32 0.56 5.82 2.64

-3.02 -3.26 -2.98 0.18 0.58 -0.39 -0.84 -0.49 0.03 0.3 1.4 0.45 1.39

-2.92 -3.09 -2.88 0.96 2.40 -0.34 -2.15 -0.02 0.68 0.98 0.94 7.94 4.02

197 Lampiran 4

Hasil simulasi dampak stimulus fiskal bidang infrastruktur padatkarya terhadap ekspor dan impor sektoral (%) Sektor

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36.



Ekspor

Impor

SR 48.44 15.24 23.74 11.28 19.68 20.10 11.59 17.97 15.29 23.70 10.80 27.90 -8.59 23.75 47.23 39.02 20.75 106.97 37.38 38.34 29.71 36.07 58.70

LR 4.27 1.58 0.71 8.73 6.42 4.27 3.04 2.63 4.75 2.94 1.16 -33.48 -2.33 7.27 17.75 13.06 6.00 19.90 13.70 9.66 13.72 19.07 34.97

SR -14.53 -6.21 -2.90 -1.55 -4.60 -7.91 -5.18 -0.43 -4.27 -8.20 -3.22 -3.79 19.48 -5.47 -9.76 -9.47 -0.89 -1.99 -7.66 -14.59 -5.22 -26.19 -9.80

LR 3.52 3.89 4.47 -0.23 2.43 2.96 3.51 3.98 3.68 3.25 4.20 16.89 7.78 3.23 0.72 0.20 3.25 3.50 1.43 -3.92 0.41 -10.25 -0.76

28.71 36.97 34.52 25.88 22.25 35.56 35.53 29.63 36.31 34.07 31.14 2.67 8.67

6.60 6.75 7.63 9.40 8.10 13.79 10.44 10.80 16.66 16.97 14.04 10.62 7.06

-2.55 -2.55 -2.55 -5.22 -4.85 -6.07 -4.96 -5.47 -6.16 -6.15 -4.75 -1.34 -3.26

4.28 4.28 4.28 3.17 3.29 2.43 2.58 2.98 2.34 1.91 1.84 1.60 3.29

198 Lampiran 5

1

Hasil uji signifikansi produktivitas (elastisitas) masing-masing peubah dalam penelitian menurut sektor PDB lapangan Usaha.

Sektor pertanian

Dependent Variable: LNO1 Variable C LNTK1 LNIG1 LNIS1

Coefficient 23.97797 -0.701072 0.162314 -0.091151

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

2

Std. Error

0.940682 0.905090 0.027713 0.003840 22.14732 26.43025 0.001708

10.36325 0.586146 0.030700 0.035452

t-Statistic 2.313751 -1.196071 5.287078 -2.571070

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat

Prob. 0.0686 0.2853 0.0032 0.0500 12.41778 0.089955 -4.032738 -3.945082 -4.221898 1.722880

Sektor pertambangan dan penggalian

Dependent Variable: LNO2 Variable C LNTK2 LNIG2 LNIS2 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Coefficient 12.38326 -0.027583 0.007037 -0.001345 0.039877 -0.536196 0.026778 0.003585 22.45616 0.069223 0.973926

Std. Error 0.824062 0.061489 0.038282 0.011227

t-Statistic 15.02710 -0.448580 0.183816 -0.119811


Prob. 0.0000 0.6725 0.8614 0.9093 12.03056 0.021605 -4.101369 -4.013713 -4.290529 0.793868

199

3

Sektor industri pengolahan

Dependent Variable: LNO3 Variable

Coefficient

C LNTK3 LNIG3 LNIS3

-1.252117 0.751016 0.304841 0.031265


4

0.891813 0.826901 0.054993 0.015121 15.97956 13.73878 0.007533

Std. Error 11.56373 0.667927 0.098855 0.074478

t-Statistic -0.108280 1.124397 3.083705 0.419794


Prob. 0.9180 0.3119 0.0274 0.6921 13.04967 0.132178 -2.662125 -2.574470 -2.851285 1.575487

Sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih


Coefficient 4.237303 0.110364 0.423527 0.023180 0.897495 0.835992 0.075637 0.028604 13.11094 14.59272 0.006597

Std. Error 2.727228 0.234522 0.068625 0.023712

t-Statistic 1.553703 0.470592 6.171618 0.977593


Prob. 0.1810 0.6577 0.0016 0.3732 9.309000 0.186767 -2.024653 -1.936998 -2.213813 2.267359

200

5

Sektor bangunan


Coefficient

C LNTK5 LNIG5 LNIS5

-9.083024 1.266579 0.157672 -0.032035


6

Std. Error

0.868198 0.789116 0.086629 0.037523 11.88968 10.97854 0.012227

6.404151 0.421901 0.049861 0.045946

t-Statistic -1.418303 3.002078 3.162227 -0.697243


Prob. 0.2153 0.0300 0.0250 0.5167 11.49211 0.188643 -1.753262 -1.665607 -1.942422 1.409524

Sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran


Coefficient -6.401133 1.062670 0.226282 -0.013886 0.966345 0.946152 0.039283 0.007716 19.00729 47.85516 0.000418

Std. Error 5.270312 0.321688 0.054224 0.022513

t-Statistic -1.214564 3.303421 4.173098 -0.616800


Prob. 0.2788 0.0214 0.0087 0.5644 12.53633 0.169285 -3.334954 -3.247298 -3.524114 1.887078

201

7

Sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi


Coefficient

C LNTK7 LNIG7 LNIS7

-11.16761 1.144965 0.476475 0.041610


8

0.991965 0.987145 0.036989 0.006841 19.54870 205.7694 0.000012

Std. Error 3.302337 0.228055 0.036856 0.015082

t-Statistic -3.381729 5.020568 12.92810 2.758962


Prob. 0.0196 0.0040 0.0000 0.0399 11.50522 0.326239 -3.455267 -3.367611 -3.644427 3.492572

Sektor keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan


Coefficient 11.85505 -0.086006 0.346747 0.017258 0.908514 0.853622 0.070273 0.024692 13.77287 16.55106 0.004986

Std. Error 3.809222 0.280789 0.060006 0.015861

t-Statistic 3.112198 -0.306300 5.778532 1.088102


Prob. 0.0265 0.7717 0.0022 0.3262 11.92222 0.183676 -2.171748 -2.084093 -2.360908 2.368201

202

9

Sektor jasa-jasa


Coefficient -4.084067 0.936403 0.134441 -0.049905 0.986002 0.977603 0.020887 0.002181 24.69224 117.3963 0.000047

Std. Error 2.299357 0.148779 0.034975 0.010600

t-Statistic -1.776178 6.293910 3.843876 -4.707929


Prob. 0.1359 0.0015 0.0121 0.0053 11.95167 0.139566 -4.598275 -4.510620 -4.787435 2.288838

203

Lampiran 6

PDB Indonesia menurut lapangan usaha (atas dasar harga konstan 2000) tahun 2000-2008 (miliar rupiah)

Lapangan Usaha

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

1. Pertanian

216,831.5

223,891.5

231,613.5

240,387.3

247,163.6

253,881.7

262,402.8

271,586.9

284,337.8

2. Pertambangan dan penggalian

167,692.2

168,244.4

169,932.0

167,603.8

160,100.5

165,222.6

168,028.9

171,361.7

172,300.0

3. Industri pengolahan

385,597.9

398,323.8

419,387.8

441,754.9

469,952.4

491,561.4

514,100.3

538,077.9

557,765.6

8,393.8

9,058.3

9,868.2

10,349.2

10,897.6

11,584.1

12,251.1

13,525.2

14,993.7

76,573.4

80,080.4

84,469.8

89,621.8

96,334.4

103,598.4

112,233.6

121,901.0

130,815.7

224,452.2

233,307.9

243,266.6

256,516.6

271,142.2

293,654.0

312,520.8

338,945.7

363,314.0

4. Listrik, gas dan air bersih 5. Bangunan 6. Perdagangan, hotel dan restoran 7. Pengangkutan dan komunikasi

65,012.1

70,275.9

76,173.1

85,458.4

96,896.7

109,261.5

124,975.7

142,944.5

166,076.8

8. Keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan

115,463.0

123,266.0

131,523.0

140,374.4

151,123.3

161,252.2

170,074.3

183,659.3

198,799.6

9. Jasa-jasa

129,753.8

133,957.5

138,982.4

145,104.9

152,906.1

160,799.3

170,705.4

181,972.1

193,700.5

1,389,769.9

1,440,405.7

1,505,216.4

1,577,171.3

1,656,516.8

1,750,815.2

1,847,292.9

1,963,974.3

2,082,103.7

Total

Sumber: BPS, 2008-2009 (diolah)

204 Lampiran 7

Jumlah tenaga kerja menurut lapangan usaha tahun 2000-2008 (jiwa)

Lapangan Usaha 1. Pertanian 2. Pertambangan dan penggalian

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

38,822,252

40,570,453

40,633,700

43,042,100

40,608,000

41,814,200

42,323,190

41,206,474

44,751,010

851,905

783,213

631,800

732,800

1,034,700

808,800

947,097

994,614

967,423

11,026,019

11,319,555

12,110,000

11,495,900

11,070,500

11,652,400

11,578,141

12,368,729

12,454,773

176,168

183,097

178,300

151,800

230,800

186,800

207,102

174,884

203,716

4,349,677

4,200,781

4,273,900

4,054,700

4,540,100

4,417,100

4,373,950

5,252,581

4,847,473

6. Perdagangan, hotel dan restoran

17,966,153

17,680,871

17,795,000

17,249,500

19,119,200

18,896,900

18,555,057

20,554,650

20,208,193

7. Pengangkutan dan komunikasi

5,258,719

4,926,803

4,672,600

4,939,700

5,480,500

5,552,500

5,467,308

5,958,811

5,866,795

8. Keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan

1,113,645

1,117,481

991,700

1,306,500

1,125,100

1,042,800

1,153,292

1,399,490

1,290,575

10,273,161

10,025,146

10,360,200

9,837,800

10,513,100

10,576,600

10,571,965

12,019,984

11,459,897

89,837,700

90,807,400

91,647,200

92,810,800

93,722,000

94,948,100

95,177,102

99,930,217

102,049,857

3. Industri pengolahan 4. Listrik, gas dan air bersih 5. Bangunan

9. Jasa-jasa Total

Sumber: BPS, 2000-2008 (diolah)

205 Lampiran 8

Investasi pemerintah menurut lapangan usaha tahun 2000-2008 (miliar rupiah)

Lapangan Usaha 1. Pertanian

2000 4136.0


2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

7159.6

8594.5

11587.3

12461.7

17731.5

29130.7

29621.7

33823.4

53.5

88.3

105.4

134.7

146.6

199.1

331.6

324.4

350.1

150.3

248.1

296.1

378.2

411.6

559.2

931.5

911.2

983.3

4. Listrik, gas dan air bersih

2628.8

4585.5

5509.6

7488.8

8039.8

11516.3

18883.1

19305.3

22209.2

5. Bangunan

4298.5

4727.6

6554.4

11521.9

11719.1

41505.7

53939.7

32868.9

36189.5

3. Industri pengolahan


128.2

211.6

252.4

322.5

351.0

476.9

794.2

777.0

838.4


5812.9

10247.3

12328.4

16942.8

18146.5

26226.5

42892.1

44166.2

51308.8

11.8

18.6

27.9

30.2

35.8

32.3

66.1

95.0

107.2

7321.9

12087.3

14422.1

18424.5

20052.6

27242.0

45374.2

44389.1

47898.1

24541.9

39373.9

48090.8

66831.0

71364.6

125489.4

192343.1

172458.8

193707.9

8. Keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan 9. Jasa-jasa Total

Sumber: APBN, 2000-2008 (Kemenkeu), diolah

206 Lampiran 9

Investasi swasta menurut lapangan usaha tahun 2000-2008 (miliar rupiah)

Lapangan Usaha 1. Pertanian

2000 8,399.0


2001 5,395.2

2002 5,556.4

2003 3,443.5

2004 4,910.8

2005 7,606.9

2006 7,497.9

2007 6,412.8

2008 2,734.0

59.4

2,443.0

1,244.3

903.5

1,278.3

1,924.9

909.5

3,609.4

2,277.3

185,879.6

97,929.6

44,929.6

95,104.6

79,509.7

55,400.9

45,664.8

70,530.8

59,678.2

103.8

387.9

811.8

3,538.2

11,356.9

675.3

1,037.8

1,870.1

780.5

3,004.2

2,516.8

4,145.9

8,441.6

10,335.7

11,448.7

1,839.3

6,332.3

5,016.8


16,459.4

77,760.9

11,295.2

9,035.6

11,717.0

5,904.0

5,446.4

6,103.9

7,996.8


13,686.2

5,424.7

36,322.6

37,238.1

7,336.3

29,604.5

7,062.7

31,417.9

83,101.0

3,119.5

6,142.1

68.4

88.6

3,154.9

2,094.5

2,336.7

607.5

1,695.9

3. Industri pengolahan 4. Listrik, gas dan air bersih 5. Bangunan

8. Keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan 9. Jasa-jasa Total

Sumber: BKPM, 2000-2008 (diolah)

9,654.1

17,397.1

8,448.0

2,490.1

3,040.2

3,658.4

2,905.9

5,399.6

1,219.5

240,365.3

215,397.4

112,822.2

160,283.7

132,639.7

118,318.1

74,700.9

132,284.3

164,499.9

207 Lampiran 10 Surat Edaran Menteri Keuangan RI Nomor: SE-883/MK-02/2009

208

209

210

211

Calderon C and Serven L The Effect of Infrastructure Development on Growth and Income Distribution. Working Paper of the central Bank of

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