Analysis the Effectiveness of Daya Max Plus Tariff Policy for PT.PLN to Control Operational Risk in Java Bali System

”Analysis the Effectiveness of Daya Max Plus Tariff Policy for PT.PLN to Control Operational Risk in Java – Bali System” FINAL PROJECT

By Heryani Intan Prayitno 19004102

Undergraduate Program School of Business and Management Institut Teknologi Bandung 2007

VALIDATION PAGE

ANALYSIS THE EFFECTIVENESS OF DAYA MAX PLUS TARIFF POLICY FOR PT.PLN TO CONTROL OPERATIONAL RISK IN JAVA – BALI SYSTEM

By: HERYANI INTAN PRAYITNO ID No: 19004102

Undergraduate Program School of Business and Management Institut Teknologi Bandung

Validated By

(Dr. Ir. Sudarso Kaderi Wiryono)

ABSTRACT In this modern era, electricity plays important role where most all economic activities especially industry requires electrics to implement the activity. So PTPLN as the only government-owned state corporations that is given the responsibility to fulfill electrical demand must overcome the electrical demand from the community. Problem arises when PTPLN doesn't have enough capacity to fulfill the need. Therefore, PTPLN has to mitigate the risk to suppress electrical consumption by releasing a regulation that is Daya Max Plus. Daya Max Plus is a regulation which is focusing more on industries to reduce the electrical usage to 50% at Waktu Beban Puncak, which is from 5p.m. to 10p.m. Although at WBP, industry and household give the biggest contribution at the time of rapid increase in load. Seen from the amount perspective, the industry is the fewest consumer and households is the biggest consumer. Meanwhile in electrical usage perspective, the industry is the biggest in volume if it is compared to other PT.PLN consumers. This is the reason that the industries are subject to DMP regulation In this case, the writer wants to know how effective is DMP which had been applied since November 2005 until now, and what the impact is after applying DMP for PT.PLN itself and its consumer especially the industry. The methodology process used in this case is first by collecting raw data that comes from internet and newspaper, and then to analyze them. The measurement tools to see the effectiveness DMP is by using statistical analysis. Then to know the future demand at the time of WBP is by using forecasting method. The writer also makes two scenarios in which where the alteration of electrical demand is influenced by the increase in number of consumers. Result from statistical analysis shows that there is a difference in peak load increase at WBP before and after applying DMP. While the result of forecasting, it can be seen that after applying DMP, the peak load at WBP decreases but it is accompanied with faster growth rate if it is compared to the time before applying DMP. From scenarios result, it shows that actual electrical demand growth can exceed the forecasted growth. This happen because of the consumer growth plays a major role. Based on these scenarios, the improvement is more focused on industry because the implementation of DMP is solely enforced to industries. From the result of the analysis, the writer gives some recommendations to PT.PLN to face electrical demand increase by doing investment to develo p new power generator and also suggested that PT.PLN not to make only a regulation which only applies to industries but also to household consumers, that contributes quite significantly to the increase of electrical demand at WBP.

Keywords: PT.PLN, Daya Max Plus, Waktu Beban Puncak, electrical demand.

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ABSTRAK Di jaman modern seperti sekarang ini, listrik berperan penting dimana hampir semua kegiatan perekonomian khususnya perindustrian memerlukan listrik untuk menjalankan aktifitasnya. Sehingga PT.PLN sebagai satu-satunya BUMN yang diberi tanggung jawab untuk memenuhi kebutuhan listrik, harus dapat mengatasi kebutuhan listrik yang terjadi di masyarakat. Masalah timbul ketika PT.PLN tidak memiliki kapasitas yang cukup untuk memenuhi kebutuhan tersebut. Sehingga PT.PLN perlu memitigasi risiko untuk menekan konsumsi listrik dengan mengeluarkan sebuah regulasi yaitu Daya Max Plus. Daya Max Plus adalah sebuah regulasi yang lebih mengkhususkan industri untuk mengurangi pemakaian listrik hingga 50% pada saat Waktu Beban Puncak yaitu pk. 17.00 – 22.00. Walaupun pada saat WBP, industri dan rumah tangga memberikan kontribusi yang terbesar pada saat terjadi lonjakan. Karena jika dilihat dari segi jumlah, industri adalah konsumen terkecil dan konsumen rumah tangga yang terbesar. Namun pemakaian listrik tiap industri merupakan yang terbesar jika dibandingkan dengan konsumen PT.PLN yang lain, sehingga industri yang dikenakan regulasi DMP. Dalam kasus ini, penulis ingin mengetahui seberapa efektif DMP yang telah diterapkan sejak bulan November 2005 hingga sekarang, dan bagaimana dampak yang terjadi setelah penerapan DMP, baik bagi PT.PLN sendiri maupun konsumen khususnya industri. Metodologi yang digunakan dalam kasus ini yaitu dengan cara mengumpulkan data mentah yang berasal dari internet dan koran. Setelah itu menganalisa dari data yang telah dikumpulkan. Pengukuran efektifitas dari DMP adalah dengan menggunakan analisis statistik. Setelah itu untuk mengetahui permintaan yang terjadi pada saat WBP untuk masa yang akan datang, digunakan metode peramalan. Selain itu juga penulis membuat dua buah skenario di mana perubahan permintaan dipengaruhi oleh peningkatan jumlah konsumen listrik. Hasil dari analisis statistik menunjukan bahwa ada perubahan pada peningkatan beban puncak yang terjadi pada saat WBP sebelum dan sesudah diterapkannya DMP. Sedangkan dari hasil peramalan, terlihat bahwa setelah diterapkannya DMP, beban puncak yang terjadi saat WBP mengalami penurunan namun disertai kecepatan pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi jika dibandingkan dengan sebelum diterapkannya DMP. Dari hasil skenario yang telah dibuat, dapat dilihat bahwa pertumbuhan permintaan listrik bisa melebihi dari apa yang diramalkan sebelumnya. Hal ini terjadi dikarenakan pertumbuhan konsumen listrik sangat berperan penting. Berdasarkan skenario yang telah dibuat, peningkatan lebih diutamakan pada industri karena penerapan DMP hanya diberlakukan bagi industri. Hasil dari analisis yang telah dilakukan, penulis memberikan beberapa rekomendasi kepada PT.PLN untuk menghadapi peningkatan permintaan listrik dengan melakukan investasi pembangunan pembangkit listrik baru dan juga disarankan pula agar PT.PLN tidak hanya membuat sebuah peraturan yang hanya berlaku bagi industri tapi juga bagi konsumen rumah tangga, yang berperan cukup besar terhadap peningkatan kebutuhan listrik pada saat WBP.

Kata kunci: PT.PLN, Daya Max Plus, Waktu Beban Puncak, permintaan listrik.

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PREFACE All praise and thanks for God for the blessing so this final project in title “Analysis the Effectiveness of Daya Max Plus Tariff Policy for PT.PLN to Control Operational Risk in Java – Bali System” is done. This final project is a requirement to finish study in SBM (School of Business and Management) – ITB.

In this opportunity, writer would like to thank for, so this final project can finish on time. For that, writer would like to thanks to: 1. Dr. Ir. Sudarso Kaderi Wiryono as a supervisor that already give opportunity, precious guidance, and direction for this final project. 2. Ir. Togar Simatupang M. Tech., Ph.D as an academic counselor in my study that help during the study and support for this final project. 3. All lecture in SBM-ITB that give me additional knowledge and help during the study. 4. All Administration (Mr. Iwan, Mr. Yayat and Mrs. Ikum) and Library staff (Mrs. Wiwiek and Mr. Radjab) that helping and support me during my study. 5. My lovely parents and sister. Thank you for your support and prayer. 6. My SBM friends that study together traverse in happy and sad time. Never forget all of you my friends. 7. All of friends. Thank you for the support.

Hopefully, this final project will useful for the writer and all people that need it.

Bandung, July 2007

Heryani Intan Prayitno

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LIST OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT ......................................................................................... i ABSTRAK .......................................................................................... ii PREFACE ........................................................................................... iii LIST OF CONTENTS ......................................................................... iv LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................. vi LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................... vii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................... 1 1.1 Background .......................................................................... 1 1.2 Problem Formulation ........................................................... 2 1.3 Objective .............................................................................. 2 1.4 Limitation.............................................................................. 2 1.5 Writing System .................................................................... 3 CHAPTER 2 BACKGROUND INFORMATION AND THEORITICAL FOUNDATION ................................................................................... 5 2.1 Risk ...................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 Risk Management .................................................. 6 2.1.2 Operational Risk .................................................... 7 2.1.3 Risk Matrix ............................................................ 8 2.2 Electric Power ...................................................................... 8 2.2.1 Hydroelectric Power Plant .................................... 9 2.2.2 Stream-Electric Power Plant ................................. 9 2.2.3 Internal Combustion-Engine Power Plant ............ 9 2.3 Demand Management .......................................................... 10 2.3.1 Forecasting ............................................................ 10 2.3.1.1 Qualitative Forecasting Method ............. 11 2.3.1.2 Quantitative Forecasting Method ........... 12 2.4 Statistic Theory .................................................................... 12 2.4.1 Hypothesis Testing Methodology ......................... 12 2.4.1.1 The Rejection and Non- Rejection Region 13 2.4.1.2 The Risk in Decision Making ................. 13 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY DATA SEQUENCE AND EVENT 15 3.1 The Flow of Problem Solving .............................................. 15 3.2 Problem Identification ......................................................... 16 iv

3.3 Literature Study ................................................................... 16 3.4 Data Collection .................................................................... 16 3.5 Data Analysis ....................................................................... 16 3.5.1 The Coefficient of Correlation .............................. 17 3.5.2 Paired Sample T-Test ........................................... 17 3.5.3 Forecasting ............................................................ 18 3.5.3.1 Trend Linear Model ............................... 18 3.5.4 Sensitivity Analysis .............................................. 18 3.6 Conclusion ........................................................................... 19 CHAPTER 4 DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS ................... 21 4.1 Company Profile .................................................................. 21 4.1.1 Vision .................................................................... 21 4.1.2 Mission ................................................................. 21 4.1.3 Motto ..................................................................... 21 4.1.4 Company Value .................................................... 22 4.2 Data Collection .................................................................... 22 4.2.1 Electric Power System .......................................... 22 4.2.2 WBP (Waktu Beban Puncak) ................................ 23 4.2.3 DMP (Daya Max Plus) .......................................... 24 4.2.4 Consumers of PT.PLN .......................................... 24 4.2.5 Load Power ........................................................... 25 4.2.6 Power Plant in Java – Bali .................................... 25 4.2.7 PLTU in 10,000MW Crash Program .................... 27 4.3 Data Analysis ....................................................................... 28 4.3.1 Paired Sample T-Test ............................................ 28 4.3.2 Trend Line Analysis .............................................. 31 4.3.3 Sensitivity Analysis .............................................. 32 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ............ 35 5.1 Conclusion ........................................................................... 35 5.2 Recommendation ................................................................. 36 REFERENCES ................................................................................... 37 APPENDIX

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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 The Risk Loop ................................................................... 7 Figure 2.2 Two Broad Categories of Operational Risk ....................... 7 Figure 2.3 Probability / Impact Matrix ................................................ 8 Figure 2.4 Forecasting Model ............................................................. 11 Figure 3.1 Methodology ...................................................................... 15 Figure 4.1 Electricity Flow from Power Generator to Consumers ..... 22 Figure 4.2 A Day Loads Java – Bali System ....................................... 23 Figure 4.3 Forecast Before and After DMP ........................................ 32 Figure 4.4 Sensitivity for the Forecast ................................................ 33

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LIST OF TABLES Table 4.1 Peak Loads 2004 - 2005 ...................................................... 25 Table 4.2 Peak Loads 2006 – 2007 ..................................................... 25 Table 4.3 Power Plant for Java – Bali System .................................... 26 Table 4.4 The Power Generator in 10,000MW Program .................... 27 Table 4.5 Peak Load in Java – Bali System ........................................ 28 Table 4.6 Paired Samples Statistics ..................................................... 29 Table 4.7 Paired Samples Correlations ............................................... 29 Table 4.8 Paired Samples Test ............................................................ 29 Table 4.9 The Percentage of Usage Electricity at WBP ..................... 32

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