Earning Flash
PT Kalbe Farma Tbk. Good Result
06 April 2017 Price (05/04) Target Price Ticker Industry
IDR 1,615 IDR 1,835 KLBF Consumer Goods
Pendapatan KLBF FY16 tumbuh +8.3% YoY menjadi IDR 19.37 triliun didukung naiknya volume penjualan, membaiknya daya beli masyarakat dan tingkat inflasi yang terkendali. Sementara itu, laba bersih bertumbuh +14.7% yoy menjadi IDR 2.3 triliun akibat naiknya laba kotor dan penghasilan bunga. Kami Helen menetapkan target harga saham KLBF sebesar IDR 1,835 per lembar yang
[email protected] mencerminkan PE’17 sebesar 34.25x dan PBV’17E sebesar 6.9x. 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800
KLBF
600
TP
400 200 4/4/20 17
3/4/20 17
2/4/20 17
1/4/20 17
12/4/20 16
11/4/20 16
9/4/20 16
10/4/20 16
8/4/20 16
7/4/20 16
6/4/20 16
5/4/20 16
0 4/4/20 16
Penjualan Meningkat 8.3%. Penjualan bersih KLBF FY16 tumbuh 8.3% yoy, dari IDR 13.13 triliun menjadi IDR 19.37 triliun didukung naiknya volume penjualan, membaiknya daya beli masyarakat dan tingkat inflasi yang terkendali. Laba kotor tumbuh +10.4% menjadi IDR 9.49 triliun dengan GPM 49.0% akibat nilai tukar Rupiah yang relatif stabil. Laba bersih mencapai IDR 2.3 triliun, naik +14.7% YoY didorong naiknya laba kotor dan penghasilan bunga.
Segmen Distribusi Menjadi Kontributor Terbesar. Segmen distribusi berkontribusi terbesar bagi pendapatan KLBF yaitu sebesar 30%, disusul segmen produk Company Description nutrisi sebesar 29%, segmen obat resep sebesar 23% dan segmen produk kesePT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF) hatan sebesar 18%. Namun Segmen Produk Kesehatan Membukukan Kinerja Terbaik. Segmen produk kesehatan membukukan kinerja terbaik dengan tumbuh 11.13% YoY menjadi IDR 3.41 triliun. Gross marjin juga mengalami kenaikan ke 55.9% dari 54.2%. Segmen nutrisi tumbuh 9.7% YoY, distribusi tumbuh +8.8% YoY dan obat resep hanya tumbuh +4.1% YoY dengan gross marjin yang turun dari 59.0% ke 57.7%.
Valuasi. Kami mempertahankan target harga saham KLBF sebesar IDR 1,835 yang mencerminkan PE’17 sebesar 34.25x dan PBV’17E sebesar 6.9x. Dengan membandingkan harga penutupan KLBF (05/04) pada level IDR 1,610 sehingga hanya terdapat upside potential sebesar 13.98%, maka kami merekomendasikan HOLD.
Exhibit 01– Financial Summary Key Metrics FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E Revenue (bn IDR) 13,636 16,002 17,369 17,887 19,374 21,023 COGS (bn IDR) 7,103 8,323 8,893 9,296 9,886 10,718 Gross Profit (bn IDR) 6,533 7,679 8,476 8,592 9,488 10,306 Net Income (bn IDR) 1,734 1,920 2,066 2,004 2,300 2,512 EPS (IDR) 37 41 44 43 49 54 Revenue Growth 24.97% 17.35% 8.54% 2.99% 8.31% 8.51% EPS Growth 16.77% 11.11% 7.32% -2.83% 14.74% 9.21% ROA 18.41% 16.96% 16.61% 14.63% 15.10% 15.01% ROE 23.52% 22.58% 21.16% 18.32% 18.45% 18.29% PE Ratio 49.73 44.76 41.70 42.92 37.40 34.25 PBV 13.20 11.67 10.12 8.81 7.86 6.90 Source : KLBF, MCI Research
didirikan di tahun 1966. Saat ini, perseroan merupakan pemimpin pasar dalam industri farmasi di Indonesia.
Dalam kegiatan usahanya, KLBF memiliki empat divisi utama yaitu: Divisi Obat Resep, Divisi Produk Kesehatan, Divisi Nutrisi dan Divisi Distribusi dan Logistik.
Produk perseroan antara lain adalah Promag, Mixagrip, Extra Joss, Komix, Woods, Entrostop, Procold, Fatigon, Hydro Coco, Prenagen, Morinaga, Milna dan Diabetasol.
Stock Data 52-week Range (IDR) Mkt Cap (IDR tn) JCI Weight Shares O/S (mn) YTD Change
PT Gira Sole Prima PT Santa Seha Sanadi PT Diptanala Bahana PT Lucasta Murni Cemerlang PT Ladang Ira Panen PT Bina Arta Charisma Public
1,295 | 1,815 75.70 1.22% 46,875 6.6%
10.17% 9.71% 9.49% 9.47% 9.21% 8.66% 43.29%
Exhibit 02– Financial Summary in IDR bn Revenue - Cost of Revenue Gross Profit Operating Income Net Income Basic Earnings per Share (IDR) Gross Margin Operating Margin Profit Margin Source : KLBF, Bloomberg, MCI Research
Exhibit 03– Comparative Returns
Source : Bloomberg, MCI Research
Q4 2015 4,760 2,579 2,181 671 505 10.77 45.82% 14.09% 10.61%
Q3 2016 4,820 2,449 2,372 734 556 11.87 49.20% 15.23% 11.54%
Q4 2016 4,998 2,544 2,454 771 597 12.74 49.09% 15.43% 11.95%
QoQ 3.69% 3.90% 3.47% 5.04% 7.30% 7.30%
YoY 5.01% -1.34% 12.52% 15.00% 18.23% 18.23%
FY2015 17,887 9,296 8,592 2,647 2,004 42.48 48.03% 14.80% 11.20%
FY2016 19,374 9,886 9,488 2,985 2,300 49.07 48.97% 15.41% 11.87%
YoY 8.31% 6.35% 10.43% 12.76% 14.74% 15.50%
Exhibit 04-Pharma Industry 80.0
Exhibit 05-Market Share 16%
14.3%
70.0
13.0%
12.5%
10.8%
60.0 50.0
11%
14% 12%
6% Kalbe
10%
8%
7.5%
40.0
5%
6%
4%
20.0
4%
3%
10.0
2%
4.9%
30.0
37.0
41.7
47.6
53.8
59.6
62.5
67.2
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Pasar Farmasi Indonesia (IDR tn)
b c d Others
71%
0% 2010
a
8%
2016
Growth
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
Source : IMS Health, KLBF, MCI Research
Exhibit 06- Revenue
Exhibit 07-Segment Contribution
25.0% 20,000 25.0% 18,000 16.4% 17.3% 20.0% 15.4% 15.4% 16,000 12.5% 12.5% 15.0% 8.5% 14,000 6.7% 10.0% 12,000 3.4% 3.0% 5.0% 10,000 0.0% 8,000 -5.0% 6,000 -10.0% 4,000 -15.0% 2,000 -20.0% FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Revenue (IDR bn)
17%
16%
16%
17%
17%
18%
25%
24%
24%
25%
24%
23%
22%
22%
24%
26%
29%
29%
35%
38%
36%
32%
30%
30%
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015A
2016A
Growth
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
Distribution & Packaging
Nutritional Food
Prescription Drugs
Consumer Health
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
Exhibit 08-Sales - Prescription Drugs
Exhibit 09-Market Share Prescription Pharmaceuticals
12% Kalbe Group 8%
a b 6%
4,468
4,293
c d
4% 60%
FY2015
3% 3%
FY2016 Prescription Drugs (IDR bn)
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
4%
Source : IMS Health, KLBF, MCI Research
e f Others
Exhibit 10-Sales - Consumer Health
Exhibit 11-Kalbe’s Brand
3,408 3,066
Therapeutic
Kalbe's Products
Market Share
Class
FY2016
Antacid
Promag, Waisan
75.2%
Anti Diarrhea
Neo Entrostop
44.8%
Cough Remedies
Komix, Woods, Mextril, Mixadin
33.9%
Cold Remedies
Mixagrip Reg, Mixagrip FB
41.0%
Procold Multivitamin FY2015
Fatigon, Sakatonik Liver
FY2016 Consumer Health (IDR bn)
Children Multivitamin Cerebrofoot, Sakatonik ABC
30.6%
Energy Drink
29.0%
Extra Joss
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
Exhibit 12- Sales - Nutritionals Division
Exhibit 13-Market Share
3,408
Kalbe's Products
Market Share FY2016
3,066
FY2015
15.8%
Cerebrovit
FY2016 Nutritionals Division (IDR bn)
Diabetasol
90.0%
Milna
65.9%
Prenagen
54.2%
Morinaga Chil Mil
11.0%
Morinaga BMT
11.0%
Entrasol
11.3%
Morinaga Chil Kid
7.2%
Zee
10.6%
Morinaga Child School
3.4%
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
Exhibit 14-Sales - Distribution & Logistic Division
Exhibit 15-Gross Profit 10,000
3,408 3,066
17.7%
9,000 8,000
20.0%
17.5%
18.0%
14.5%
16.0%
7,000
14.0%
6,000 5,000 4,000
10.4%
10.4%
10.0%
7.4%
8.0%
3,000
6.0%
2,000
1.4%
1,000 FY2015
FY2016 Nutritionals Division (IDR bn)
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
12.0%
4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 Gross Profit (IDR bn)
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
Growth
Exhibit 16-Net Income
Exhibit 17-Margin
2,500
50.0% 38.5%
50.5%
50.9%
12.6%
FY2010
47.9%
48.0%
48.8%
48.0%
49.0%
13.6%
12.7%
12.0%
11.9%
11.2%
11.9%
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
40.0%
2,000
30.0% 1,500
17.0%
15.2%
10.7%
14.7% 7.6%
20.0% 10.0%
1,000 -3.0%
0.0%
500
-10.0% 1,286
1,482
1,734
1,920
2,066
2,004
2,300
-
-20.0% FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 Net Income (IDR bn)
GPM
Growth
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
Exhibit 18-Dividend Payment 950
NPM
Exhibit 19-Capital Expenditure 70%
60%
42%
43%
44%
850
1,039
994
60%
51%
900
50%
903
852
783
40%
800
891
891
891
891
30% 20%
750
797
10% 0%
700 FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
Total Dividend (IDR bn)
FY2015
FY2012
FY2013
Payout Ratio
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
Capital Expenditure
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
Exhibit 20– Total Debt/Equity
Exhibit 21-Total Debt & Gearing Ratio 8.0%
6.9%
700
7.2%
7.0%
600
6.0%
500
5.0% 3.6% 2.8%
2.3%
2.2%
3.0%
400
3.8%
4.0%
3.0%
3.2%
2.9%
2.4%
2.3%
200
2.0% 0.4%
1.0%
100 141
205
584
296
394
283
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
0.0% FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
Total Debt/Equity
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
FY2015
FY2016
300
0
Total Debt (IDR bn)
Source : KLBF, MCI Research
Gearing Ratio
Research Division Danny Eugene Helen Vincentia Fikri Syaryadi Leonardo Teo Adrian M. Priyatna Novilya Wiyatno Dhian Karyantono Fadlillah Qudsi
Strategist, Construction, Cement, Automotive Consumer Goods, Retail Banking Telco, Transportation, Property, Hospital Mining, Media, Plantation Economist Technical Analyst
[email protected]
+62 21 7917 5599
62431
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
+62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599
62035 62035 62134 62425 62425 62134 62035
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
+62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599
62038 62441 62126 62408 62164 62045 62161 62179
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
+62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599 +62 21 7917 5599
62402 62055 62409
Retail Equity Sales Division Hendry Kuswari Dewi Suryani Brema Setyawan Ety Sulistyowati Fadel Muhammad Iqbal Andri Sumarno Harini Citra Syaifathir Muhamad
Head of Sales, Trading & Dealing Retail Equity Sales Retail Equity Sales Retail Equity Sales Retail Equity Sales Retail Equity Sales Retail Equity Sales Retail Equity Sales
Corporate Equity Sales Division Rachmadian Iskandar Z Ratna Wijayanti Reza Mahendra
Corporate Equity Sales Corporate Equity Sales Corporate Equity Sales
Fixed Income Sales & Trading Tel. +62 7917 5559-62 Fax. +62 21 7917 5965
Kantor Pusat Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2 Jl. Kapt P. Tendean, Kav 12-14 A Jakarta Selatan 12790
Investment Banking Tel. +62 21 7917 5599 Fax. +62 21 7919 3900
Pondok Indah Plaza 5 Pondok Indah Blok D No. 15 Lt. 2 Jl. Margaguna Raya Pondok Indah Jakarta Selatan
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DISCLAIMER This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Mega Capital Sekuritas.
