ABSTRAK
ANALISA KEEKONOMIAN TARIF PENJUALAN LISTRIK PEMBANGKIT LISTRIK TENAGA SURYA 1 MWp BANGLI DENGAN METODE LIFE CYCLE COST Energi listrik sudah menjadi kebutuhan primer bagi masyarakat modern, kebutuhan energi listrik rata-rat meningkat 8% pertahun sedangkan fosil sebagai sumber energi listrik utama saat ini semakin berkurang ketersediaannya. Pemerintah RI telah mengambil kebijakan dalam pengelolaan energi nasional untuk mengatasi masalah ini, salah satu sasaran kebijakannya adalah untuk mencapai target bauran energi nasional dengan peran energi baru-terbarukan yang optimal sebesar 23% pada tahun 2025. PLTS merupakan salah satu sistem pembangkit listrik energi terbarukan yang mempunyai potensi 0.87 GW di Indonesia. Pembangunan PLTS didorong dengan kebijakan feed-in tariff (FiT) yang ditetapkan melalui Permen ESDM RI No. 17 tahun 2013. Penelitian dilaksanakan di PLTS Bangli, dengan metode Life Cycle Cost (LCC). Metode LCC menghitung seluruh biaya yang diperlukan selama siklus hidup PLTS, mulai dari biaya investasi, operasional & maintenance, penggantian peralatan, sewa lahan, dan asuransi. Tarif penjualan listrik dalam paper ini dihitung dengan menambahkan margin keuntungan pada hasil perhitungan Levelized Cost of Energy (LCoE), sedangkan nilai LCoE adalah total present value LCC dibagi dengan total present value energi yang dibangkitkan. Penentuan besarnya nilai tarif penjualan listrik mengacu kepada Permen ESDM RI no. 17 tahun 2013. Analisa kelayakan ekonomi tarif penjualan listrik dilakukan dengan mempergunakan 4 parameter yaitu PBP, NPV, IRR dan PI. PLTS 1 Mwp Bangli merupakan pilot project dari Kementrian ESDM RI berlokasi di Desa Kayubihi, Kabupaten Bangli Provinsi Bali yang pengelolannya telah dihibahkan ke Pemkab Bangli - Bali. Mulai Nopember 2013 pengelolaan PLTS Bangli dilaksanakan oleh Perusda Bukti Mukti Bhakti milik Pemkab Bangli, dengan rata-rata pembangkitan energi pertahun 1.125.010 kWh. Total present value LCC adalah Rp. 34.303.270.132,- Dari hasil perhitungan LCoE didapatkan nilai tarif penjualan listrik skenario-1 sebesar Rp.4.683 / kWh dan skenario-2 sebesar Rp. 2.201 /kWh. Hanya tarif skenario-2 yang nilainya dibawah patokan tertinggi dari ketentuan Permen. Hasil perhitungan studi kelayakan ekonomi dari tarif skenario-2 (Rp. 2.201 / kWh) dengan parameter PBP, NPV, IRR dan PI memberikan keputusan layak diterima / memenuhi nilai keekonomiannya. Hasil perhitungan skenario-2 (Rp. 2.201,-/kWh § 86 VHQ.:K memenuhi ketentuan Permen, memenuhi nilai keekonomian dan mempunyai nilai keberlanjutan untuk dapat membangun kembali PLTS pada tahun 2033. Keywords—Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya, Feed-in tariff, Levelized Cost of Energy, Life Cycle Cost vi
ABSTRACT
ECONOMIC VALUE ANALYSIS ELECTRICITY TARIFF OF 1 MWP SOLAR POWER STATION IN BANGLI USING LIFE CYCLE COST METHOD Electrical energy has become a primary need for the modern society, the electrical energy needs of average rat increased by 8% per year, while the fossil as the main source of electrical energy is now diminishing availability. The Government of Indonesia has taken in Kebijakan Energi Nasional (KEN) to address this problem, one of the policy objectives are to achieve the national energy mix with renewable energy's role recently optimized by 23% in 2025. Solar Energy Generation (PLTS) is one of the renewable energy power generation system which has the potential to 0.87 GW in Indonesia. PLTS development is driven by feed-in tariff (FIT) policy established through KESDM RI No. 17 in 2013. Research is done in Bangli PLTS, by using a method of Life Cycle Cost (LCC). LCC method is calculating all of its costs during the life cycle PLTS, ranging from the cost of investment, operation & maintenance, replacement of equipment, land rent, and insurance. Electricity sales tariff in this paper is calculated by adding a profit margin in the calculation of Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), while the value of LCOE is the total of present value LCC divided by total present value of energy generated. The determination of the value of electricity sales tariff refers to the Permen ESDM RI no. 17 in 2013. The economic feasibility analysis of sales rates of electricity is done by using four parameters: PBP, NPV, IRR and PI. PLTS 1 MWp Bangli is a pilot project of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia is located in the village of Kayubihi, Bangli Regency Bali Province, who management has been granted to Bangli regency Bali. Starting November 2013 Bangli PLTS management implemented by Perusda Bukti Mukti Bhakti belonging Bangli regency, with an average of 1.12501 million kWh per year energy generation. The total present value of LCC is Rp. 34,303,270,132, - From the calculation results obtained LCOE electricity sales tariff value scenarios-1 of Rp.4.683 / kWh and scenario-2 Rp. 2,201 / kWh. Just a scenario-2 tariff value is less than the highest standards of Permen ESDM. The results of calculation of economic feasibility studies of the tariff scenario-2 (Rp. 2,201 / kWh) with the parameter PBP, NPV, IRR and PI provide a decent decision received / meet economic value. The results of the scenario-2 calculations (Rp. 2,201, - / kWh §86 cents / KWh), comply with Permen ESDM, meet the economic value and has a value of sustainability to be able to rebuild the PLTS in 2033. Keywords - Solar Power Station, Feed-in tariff, Levelized Cost of Energy, Life Cycle Cost.
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DAFTAR ISI Halaman SAMPUL DALAM.................................................................................................. i PERSYARATAN GELAR MAGISTER................................................................ ii LEMBAR PERSETUJUAN PEMBIMBING........................................................ iii PENETAPAN PANITIA PENGUJI TESIS........................................................... iv UCAPAN TERIMA KASIH................................................................................. v ABSTRAK ............................................................................................................. vi ABSTRACT............................................................................................................ vii DAFTAR ISI....................................................................................................... viii DAFTAR GAMBAR ........................................................................................... xiii DAFTAR TABEL............................................................................................... xiv DAFTAR ISTILAH & SINGKATAN............................................................... xv BAB I PENDAHULUAN .................................................................................... 1 1.1 Latar Belakang.......................................................................................... 1 1.2 Rumusan Masalah..................................................................................... 6 1.3 Batasan Masalah ....................................................................................... 7 1.4 Tujuan Penelitian ...................................................................................... 7 1.5 Manfaat Penelitian .................................................................................... 7 BAB II TINJAUAN PUSTAKA............................................................................ 8 2.1 State Of The Art Review............................................................................ 8 2.1.1 Penggunaan Metode Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) Untuk Penghitungan Efisiensi Energi Pada Gedung Depo Penyimpan Arsip Di Lembaga Arsip Nasional Republik Indonesia, Wulan Diah Puspitowati, Tesis Universitas Gajah Mada 2013............................................................ 8 2.1.2 Dynamic Life Cycle Costing in Asset Management of Production Equipments With Emphasis on Maintenance, Erdem Yksek, Osman Chaudhary, Master Thesis Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, 2011. .............. 9 2.1.3 Penentuan tarif listrik berdasarkan metode revenue requirement dan metode LRMC, Lisa Ambasari, Tesis Universitas Indonesia. ................ 10 2.1.4 Studi Tarif Listrik Dengan Menggunakan Metode Long Run Marginal Cost Di Edtl Timor Leste, Norberto Soares, Tesis Universitas Udayana 2011............................................................................................ 11
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2.1.5 Perumusan Tarif Pembelian Listrik Pada Regulasi Feed in Tariff untuk Teknologi Photovoltaic Serta Analisa Penerapannya di Indonesia, Ashadi, Tesis Universitas Indonesia 2012. ............................................... 12 2.2 Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya ( PLTS )............................................ 13 2.2.1 Sistem Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya ....................................... 14 2.2.2 Komponen PLTS............................................................................. 14 a. Generator Sel Surya (Photovoltaic Generator) ............................... 14 b. Modul Surya (Solar PV Modules) ................................................... 18 c. Inverter............................................................................................. 20 d. Charge Controller............................................................................ 23 e. Baterai.............................................................................................. 23 2.2.3 Variasi dalam Produksi Energi Modul Surya ................................. 25 a. Iradiasi (Irradiance).......................................................................... 25 b. Temperatur modul surya (temperature of the module).................... 26 c. Bayangan (Shading)......................................................................... 27 2.3 Sumber Energi Surya .............................................................................. 28 2.3.1 Sumber Energi Surya di Indonesia.................................................. 30 2.3.2 Produksi Energi per Tahun yang Diharapkan ................................. 31 2.4 Life Cycle Cost........................................................................................ 31 2.4.1 Life Cycle Cost Pada Majemen Aset.............................................. 33 2.4.2 . Life Cycle Costs Pada Sistem Energi ............................................ 35 2.4.3 Life Time PLTS ............................................................................... 36 2.5 Regulasi Feed in Tariff di Indonesia....................................................... 37 2.6 Regulasi Feed in Tariff Berbagai Negara di Dunia ................................ 40 2.7 Ekonomi Teknik...................................................................................... 42 2.7.1 Biaya (Cost) .................................................................................... 43 a. Jenis-Jenis Biaya (Cost Types) ........................................................ 45 b. Komponen Biaya (Cost Components) ............................................. 46 c. Elemen Biaya (Cost Elements) ........................................................ 47 2.7.2 Pendapatan (Revenues).................................................................... 48 2.7.3 Konsep Nilai Uang Terhadap Waktu .............................................. 50 a. Present Value (P) ............................................................................. 50 b. Future Value (F)............................................................................... 51 c. Faktor Diskonto ............................................................................... 51 2.7.4 Kriteria Penilaian Investasi ............................................................. 52 ix
a. Metode Net Present Value (NPV) ................................................... 53 b. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) .......................................................... 54 c. Metode Pay Back Period.................................................................. 55 d. Metode Profitability Index............................................................... 55 2.7.5 Salvage Value.................................................................................. 56 2.7.6 Asuransi PLTS ................................................................................ 57 2.7.7 Trend penurunan harga PV ............................................................. 58 2.8 Levelized Cost of Energy ( LCoE) .......................................................... 60 BAB III KERANGKA BERPIKIR, KONSEP, DAN HIPOTESIS PENELITIAN ....................................................................................................... 62 3.1 Kerangka Berpikir................................................................................... 62 3.2 Konsep .................................................................................................... 63 3.3 Hipotesis Penelitian ................................................................................ 66 BAB IV METODE PENELITIAN ....................................................................... 67 4.1 Tempat dan Waktu Penelitian................................................................. 67 4.1.1 Tempat Penelitian............................................................................ 67 4.1.2 Waktu .............................................................................................. 67 4.2 Teknik Pengumpulan Data...................................................................... 68 4.3 Jenis dan Sumber Data............................................................................ 68 4.4 Variabel Penelitian.................................................................................. 69 4.5 Perangkat Keras dan Perangkat Lunak Pendukung ................................ 72 4.6 Tahapan Penelitian.................................................................................. 72 4.6.1 Tahap identifikasi dan pengumpulan data....................................... 72 4.6.2 Tahap pengolahan data.................................................................... 73 4.6.3 Tahap analisa................................................................................... 73 a. Tinjauan Tarif Penjualan Listrik terhadap Permen ESDM No. 17 tahun2013 ............................................................................................. 74 b. Analisa Kelayakan Ekonomi .......................................................... 74 4.6.4 Diagram alur penelitian................................................................... 74 BAB V HASIL PENELITIAN.............................................................................. 76 5.1 PLTS Bangli........................................................................................... 76 5.2 Sistem PLTS Bangli................................................................................ 77
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5.3 Peralatan / Komponen PLTS Bangli....................................................... 78 5.3.1 PV Array ......................................................................................... 78 5.3.2 Modul Surya.................................................................................... 78 5.3.3 Penyangga Modul (Support Module).............................................. 80 5.3.4 Inverter ............................................................................................ 81 5.3.5 Array Protection Panel .................................................................... 83 5.3.6 Panel Distribusi ............................................................................... 83 5.3.7 Transformator Penaik Tegangan (Step Up Transformer) ............... 84 5.3.8 Penyalur Petir Konvensional.......................................................... 85 5.3.9 Remote Monitoring System ............................................................ 86 5.3.10 Environmental Monitoring Device ................................................. 87 5.4 Pengelolaan PLTS Bangli ....................................................................... 88 5.5 Energi Yang Dibangkitkan ..................................................................... 89 BAB VI PEMBAHASAN..................................................................................... 94 6.1 Life Cycle Cost PLTS Bangli.................................................................. 94 6.1.1 Biaya Investasi Awal ....................................................................... 94 6.1.2 Biaya Investasi Pembangunan PLTS pada tahun 2033.................... 95 6.1.3 Biaya Operasional dan Maintenance (O&M) .................................. 96 6.1.4 Biaya Penggantian Peralatan (Inverter) ........................................... 98 6.1.5 Biaya Sewa Lahan ......................................................................... 100 6.1.6 Biaya Asuransi ............................................................................... 101 6.1.7 Total LCC ...................................................................................... 103 6.2 Total Pembangkitan Energi................................................................... 104 6.3 Levelized Cost of Energi (LCoE) PLTS Bangli .................................... 107 6.4 Tarif Penjualan Listrik PLTS Bangli ................................................... 109 6.5 Hasil Penjualan Tenaga Listrik ............................................................. 112 6.6 Tinjauan terhadap Permen ESDM No. 17 Tahun 2013 ........................ 114 6.7 Analisa Kelayakan Ekonomi................................................................. 114 6.4.1 Pay Back Period (PBP) ................................................................. 115 6.4.2 Net Present Value (NPV) .............................................................. 116 6.4.3 Internal Rate of Return (IRR)........................................................ 117 6.4.4 Profitability Index ( PI) ................................................................. 118 BAB VII SIMPULAN DAN SARAN ............................................................... 119 xi
7.1 SIMPULAN .......................................................................................... 119 7.2 SARAN ................................................................................................. 120 DAFTAR PUSTAKA ......................................................................................... 121
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DAFTAR GAMBAR Gambar 1.1 Milestone PLTS.................................................................................. 2 Gambar 2.1 Contoh penerapan sel surya kedalam paparan panel surya ............... 13 Gambar 2.2 Struktur sel surya ............................................................................... 16 Gambar 2.3 Proses Kerja Sel Surya ...................................................................... 16 Gambar 2.4 Efek Fotovoltaik ................................................................................ 17 Gambar 2.5 Tahapan Generator Surya .................................................................. 18 Gambar 2.6 Bagian Modul surya crystalline silicon............................................. 19 Gambar 2.7 Modul surya mono-crystalline (kiri) dan poly-crystaline (kanan) .... 20 Gambar 2.8 Skema prinsip kerja inverter satu fasa............................................... 21 Gambar 2.9 Prinsip kerja teknologi PWM ............................................................ 22 Gambar 2.10 Pengaruh iradiasi terhadap tegangan dan arus modul surya ........... 26 Gambar 2.11 Pengaruh temperatur modul terhadap produksi energi modul surya 27 Gambar 2.12 Pengaruh shading terhadap modul surya ........................................ 28 Gambar 2.13 The word atlas of the average solar irradiance .............................. 29 Gambar 2.14 Hubungan modul surya dengan ketinggian matahari ...................... 29 Gambar 2.15 Ketinggian dan azimut matahari ..................................................... 30 Gambar 2.16 Top level of LCC tree...................................................................... 33 Gambar 2.17 Stage of a product life cycle ............................................................ 34 Gambar 2.18 Prosentase kerusakan pada bagian PLTS ........................................ 37 Gambar 2.19 Trend penurunan harga sistem PV .................................................. 60 Gambar 4.1 Diagram alir (flow chart) alur penelitian........................................... 75 Gambar 5.1 Foto satelit lokasi PLTS Bangli ........................................................ 76 Gambar 5.2 Tampak atas denah PLTS Bangli ...................................................... 77 Gambar 5.3 1 Unit PV Array PLTS Bangli .......................................................... 78 Gambar 5.4 Modul surya PLTS Bangli................................................................. 80 Gambar 5.5 Support Module dengan bahan besi metal digalvanis ....................... 81 Gambar 5.6 SUNGROW Grid-connected inverter tipe SG20KTL ...................... 82 Gambar 5.7 Array panel protection yang diletakkan di bawah modul PV ........... 83 Gambar 5.8 Panel distribusi ( 5 unit ) ................................................................... 84 Gambar 5.9. Gardu portal dengan Step up transformator 5 x 250 kVA............... 85 Gambar 5.10. Penyalur Petir PLTS Bangli ........................................................... 86 Gambar 5.11 Rumah monitoring PLTS Bangli..................................................... 87 Gambar 5.12 Meja monitoring PLTS Bangli ........................................................ 88 Gambar 5.13 Struktur organisasi pengelola PLTS Bangli .................................... 89
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DAFTAR TABEL Tabel 2.1 Secondary battery type and carakteristic .............................................. 24 Tabel 3.1 Model penyusunan Tarif Penjualan Listrik ........................................... 65 Tabel 5.1. Electrical Characteristics .................................................................... 79 Tabel 5.2 Mechanical Characteristics .................................................................. 79 Tabel 5.3 Temperature Characteristics ................................................................ 80 Tabel 5.4 Pembangkitan energi PLTS Bangli tahun 2013 .................................... 90 Tabel 5.5 Pembangkitan energi PLTS Bangli tahun 2014 .................................... 91 Tabel 5.6 Jumlah hari pembangkitan energi PLTS Bangli tahun 2013 dan 2014. 93 Tabel 6.1. Biaya Operasi dan Maintenance PLTS Bangli .................................... 97 Tabel 6.2 Biaya penggantian inverter PLTS Bangli ............................................. 98 Tabel 6.3 Present Value total biaya penggantian inverter .................................... 99 Tabel 6.4 Biaya sewa lahan PLTS Bangli ........................................................... 101 Tabel 6.5 Biaya Asuransi PLTS Bangli ............................................................. 102 Tabel 6.6 Total LCC PLTS Bangli ..................................................................... 103 Tabel 6.7 Pembangkitan energi bulan Mei 2013 dan 2014................................. 104 Tabel 6.8 Rata-rata produksi energi PLTS Bangli pertahun .............................. 105 Tabel 6.9 Jumlah total pembangkitan energi PLTS Bangli selama 20 tahun ..... 106 Tabel 6.10 Tarif penjualan listrik skenario-1 dengan biaya investasi ................. 110 Tabel 6.11 Tarif penjualan listrik skenario-2 + biaya investasi th 2033 ............ 111 Tabel 6.12 Perhitungan penjualan tenaga listrik skenario-1 ............................... 112 Tabel 6.13 Perhitungan penjualan tenaga listrik skenario-2 ............................... 113 Tabel 6.14 Perhitungan Pay Back Period............................................................ 115 Tabel 6.15 Perhitungan NPV Tarif Penjualan Listrik ......................................... 116 Tabel 6.16 Perhitungan IRR Tarif Penjualan Listrik .......................................... 117
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DAFTAR ISTILAH & SINGKATAN Array
susunan dari modul surya
Azimuth
sudut putar dari arah Barat hingga Timur
Balance of system
komponen pendukung yang digunakan dalam sistem PLTS seperti inverter, baterai, sistem kontrol dan lainlain
Blueprint
cetak biru, rancangan
Bypass diode
dioda baypass, paralel terhadap modul surya
Centralized PV plant
PLTS sentral, terpusat
Charge
pengisian energi listrik
Charge controller
alat kontrol pengisian dan pengosongan energi listrik pada baterai
Conduction losses
rugi-rugi pada sambungan / hantaran
Depth of discharge
batasan pengosongan suatu baterai
Discharge
pengosongan muatan energi listrik pada baterai
Distributed PV plant
PLTS pola tersebar
Feed-in tariff
tarif pembelian energi listrik yang terkirim ke jaringan listrik (PLN)
Frame
bingkai
Grid-connected PV plant PLTS terhubung dengan jaringan listrik Inklinasi
sudut antara bidang yang menjadi acuan dengan bidang yang diukur kemiringannya
Irradiance
iradiasi, jumlah tenaga surya tersedia per satuan luas selama periode waktu tertentu
Junction box
kotak sambung
Kwh-meter
alat ukur dan pencatat energi listrik
Life time
usia pakai
Mono-Crystalline
Kristal silikon yang bersifat homogen, murni
Overdischarge
pengosongan berlebih
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Photovoltaic
fotovoltaik, proses perubahan energi matahari secara langsung menjadi energi listrik melalui sel surya
Present Value
Nilai saat ini
Short circuit
hubung singkat
Stand-alone
berdiri sendiri, tidak terhubung jaringan utilitas
Standard test conditions kondisi pengujian / pengetesan standar String
deret
Thermal pyranometer
alat ukur radiasi matahari secara langsung
Tracking system
sistem pelacak (untuk memposisikan array sesuai arah gerak matahari)
µm
micrometer
AC
alternating current
Ah
ampere hour
BOS
balance of system
CEI
Contained Energy Indonesia
CO2
karbon dioksida
DC
direct current
DOD
depth of discharge
ESDM
energi dan sumber daya mineral
FiT
feed-in tariff
IEC
Internasional Electrotechnical Commission
KEN
kebijakan energi nasional
Kepmen
Keputusan Menteri
KESDM
Kementrian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral
kV
kilovolt
kVA
kilovolt-ampere
kW
kilowatt
kWh
kilowatt-hours
kWp
kilowatt peak
LEN
Lembaga Elektronika Nasional (sekarang PT. LEN)
LV
low voltage
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m dpl
meter diatas permukaan laut
MCB
miniature circuit breaker
MW
megawatt
MWp
megawatt peak
Permen
Peraturan Menteri
Perpres
Peraturan Presiden
Pilot project
Proyek percontohan
PLN
Perusahaan Listrik Negara
PLTS
pembangkit listrik tenaga surya
PV
photovoltaic
PWM
pulse width modulation
r.m.s
root mean square
RI
Republik Indonesia
SEI
Surya Energi Indotama
Si
silicon
STC
standard test conditions
V
volt
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