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RISK MANAGEMENT AT BUILDING PROJECT Presented on CPD Workshop 19-20 Sept 2016 By Ir. Andi Taufan Marimba, MM. MBA. IPM. MPM. ©WISE2016
Tujuan Pembelajaran & Daftar Isi Section No. Tujuan Pembelajaran
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Slide Name Peserta dapat mengerti definisi dan Jenis dari Risiko, dan Bagaimana Mengatasinya
1.
Definisi Resiko
2.
Dimensi Risiko
3.
Manajemen Risiko Pada PMBOK
4.
Aplikasi Manajemen Resiko
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DEFINISI
TUJUAN RESIKO: KEJADIAN DI MASA DEPAN YANG BELUM PASTI
• • • •
RUANG LINGKUP BIAYA WAKTU KUALITAS
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DEFINISI
+ RESIKO: KEJADIAN DI MASA DEPAN YANG BELUM PASTI
PELUANG
ANCAMAN
-
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WISE KESADARAN AKAN RESIKO
TIDAK TAHU KALAU TAHU
TAHU KALAU TAHU
TIDAK TAHU KALAU TIDAK TAHU
TAHU KALAU TIDAK TAHU
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DIMENSI RESIKO
IMPAK
RESIKO
KEJADIAN
PROBABILITAS
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PMBOK ®
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WISE RISK MANAGEMENT STEPS IN PMBOK
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Risk Management 1. Merencanakan Manajemen Risiko 2. Mengidentifikasi Risiko
Memantau dan Mengendalikan Risiko
3. Melakukan Analisis Kualitatif Risiko 4. Melakukan Analisis Kuantitatif Risiko 5. Merencanakan Tindakan Risiko
Monitoring & Controlling Process Group
Planning Process Group ©WISE2016
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WISE RISK MANAGEMENT STEPS
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Plan Risk Management Identify Risk Analyse Risk Plan Risk Response Monitor and Control Risk
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WISE RISK MANAGEMENT STEPS Plan Risk Management
Identify Risk
Analyse Risk
Plan Risk Response
Terms & Definitions
Brainstorming
Qualitative Analysis
Negative Risk
Roles & Responsibilities
Ishikawa Diagram
Quantitative Analysis
Positive Risk
Tools & Templates
Flow Diagram
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Monitor & Control Risk
SWOT Diagram
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Probabilty
PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT: PROBABILITY AND IMPACT MATRIX Low Impact/High Probabilty
High Impact/High Probabilty
Low Impact/Low Probabilty
High Impact/Low Probabilty
Impact ©WISE2016
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Probabilty
PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT: PROBABILITY AND IMPACT MATRIX 1
3
5
7
9
9
9
27
45
63
81
7
7
21
35
49
63
5
5
15
25
35
45
3
3
9
15
21
27
1
1
3
5
7
9
HIGH MEDIUM
Impact
LOW ©WISE2016
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PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT: BRAIN STORMING
Identifial Risks: Hjfdhsgk
Hjfdhgk
Hjdsgk
Hjdhsgk
Hjfdhsgk
KjaJVhfdo
KjaJVhfdo
Hjfsgk
KjaJVdo
KjVhfdo KJVhfdo
Hjfdhsgkj Khfdo
KjaJVhfdo
KjaJVhfdo
KjaJfdo
Kjafdip
Kjado
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PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT: BRAIN STORMING
Identifial Risks: 9
1
3
9
27
KjaJVhfdo Hjfdhsgk
5 Hjdhsgk KjaJVhfdo
7
7
21
5
5
15
3
3
Hjfdhsgkj
Hjfsgk
9
45
1
KjaJVhfdo Kjafdip
3
Hjdsgk
35 25
9
63
81
KjaJVdo
Hjfdhgk
Hjfdhsgk
49
15 Khfdo
1
7
35
63 KJVhfdo
45
21
27
7
9
KjaJVhfdo
5
Kjado
KjVhfdo
KjaJfdo
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WISE PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT: ISHIKAWA DIAGRAM
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WISE PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT: FLOW DIAGRAM
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ANALYSE RISK Qualitative Analysis
Quantitative Analysis
Quick & Easy to Perform
Detailed & Time Consuming
Subjective
Analytic
Probability &
TOOLS
EMV Analysis Monte Carlo Analysis
Impact Analysis Decision Tree ©WISE2016
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QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS: 1- Rank the severity of consequences Personnel Illness Consequences Injury
Equipment Loss (€)
Down Time
I Catastrophic
Death
> 1M
> 4 months
Long-term (5 years or greater) or requiring > €1 M to correct and/or in penalties
II Critical
Several injury 250K or severe to occupational 1M illness
2 weeks to 4 months
Medium-term(1-5 yrs) or requiring €250K- 1M to correct and/or in penalties
III Marginal
Minor injury or minor occupational illness
1K to 250K
1 day to 2 weeks
IV Negligible
No injury or illness
<1K
<1day
Category
Courtesy to BVI
Assets Loss
Values as for equipment loss
Environmental Effect/Impact
Short-term(<1 yr) or requiring €1K- 250K to correct and/or in penalties Damage readily repaired or requiring <€1K to correct and/or in penalties
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WISE QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
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2- Rank the “probability” of occurrence
Level
Descriptive Word
F
Frequent
Likely to occur repeatedly in system life cycle
E
Probable
Likely to occur several times in system life cycle
D
Occasional
Likely to occur sometimes in system life cycle
C
Remote
Not likely to occur in system life cycle, but possible
B
Improbable
So unlikely it can be assumed occurrence may not be experimented
A
Impossible
Courtesy to BVI
Definition
Physically impossible to occur ©WISE2016
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WISE QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS: EXPECTED MONETARY VALUE (EMV) ANALYSIS
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STRONG DEMAND Rp. 30 M
BUILD NEW BUILDING Rp. 20 M
WEAK DEMAND Rp. 15 M
UPGRADE OR RENOVATE?
STRONG DEMAND Rp. 20 M
RENOVATE BUIDING Rp. 10 M
WEAK DEMAND Rp. 8M
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WISE PLAN RISK RESPONSE Negative Risk or Threat
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Positive Risk or Opportunities
Avoid
Exploit
Mitigate
Exchange
Transfer
Accept
Accept
Share
Share
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RISK IMPACT TO SCHEDULE
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RISK IMPACT TO SCHEDULE
Critical Path 5
A
10
B
F
10
10
C
G
10
15
D
10
I
20 H
10
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100 d 95 d
135 d
Task duration (d)
RANGE of Duration
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Current Practice Schedule Forecast
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Mostly the Actual Schedule
Reducing Risks
Reducing Uncertainty
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