Peluang dan Tantangan Import dan Produksi Benih Rekayasa Genetik untuk Pemenuhan Kebutuhan Pakan dan Pangan
Outline • Agricultural Challenges • Innovation of Ag & Seed Technologies • Biotechnology: RR corn and BT corn
• How Seed Industry can enable Farmers to overcome these Challenges
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Agricultural Challenges
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Tantangan
Pertanian berada ditengah perubahan global
PENINGKATAN
9.6M+
PERUBAHAN
7.1M 4.4M
1980
SEKARANG
2050
PENGURANGAN
0.4 HA per orang
1961
4
Kurangdari
0.1 HA per orang 2050
1990 PERUBAHAN
2012
9%
14%
th 1965
th 2030
PERSENTASE KONSUMSI DAGING
Tantangan
Pertumbuhan penduduk membutuhkan inovasi dalam pertanian
PENINGKATAN
9.6M+ 7.1M
4.4M
1980 5 Source: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/
2014
2050
Pertanian Harus memproduksi lebih banyak pangan dengan lebih sedikit sumber daya alam
PENGURANGAN
0.4 HA per orang 1961 6 Source: The World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-STAT), Monsanto Internal Calculations
kurang dari
0.1 HA per orang 2050
Tantangan
Tantangan
Pertumbuhan Kelas menengah global yang bergantung pada protein hewani semakin tinggi
PERUBAHAN
9%
14%
PERSENTASE KONSUMSI DAGING 1965 7
2030
Source: UN FAO Food Balance Sheet, World Health Organization “Global and regional food consumption patterns and trends”
Tantangan
Tanaman Menghadapi Tantangan Berganda disebabkan Perubahan Iklim
PERUBAHAN
Pergeseran Zona tanaman
Peningkatan cuaca yang ekstrim
8 Source: US Third National Climate Assessment (2013)
Ekspansi Dampak Perubahan Peningkatan Kisaran penyakit terhadap Dalam serangga gangguan gulma tanaman Ketersediaan air
Potensi Kehilangan Hasil Karena Gulma Vegetative stages
VE
V1
6
12
V2 V3
V4
V5
21
planting
V6
V7
27
V8
V10
V12
V13-17
VT
33
40
45
46-55
56-60
25-50%
Days after planting
15-30%
10-20%
Reproductive stages
55-90%
Stadia reproductive R1 - Silking
R2 - Blister
57-60
67-72
R3 - Milk
R4 - Dough
R5 - Dent
R6 - Maturity
75-80
81-86
91-96
115-120
Days after planting
30-40%
TOTAL POTENTIAL YIELD LOSS
Stadia vegetative
30-40% 9
Yield loss estimated at 1.5-3% for every corn leaf stage pass the criticial period for weed control. (Data from Knezevic S. Z., et. al., Yield Penalty Due to Delayed Weed Control in Corn and Soybean, 2003)
Serangga hama pada Jagung
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The World in 2014 – Corn Consumption 939m MT
Europe/CIS Production: 124 m MT Consumption: 103 m MT Imports: 10 m MT Exports: 27 m MT Net Exports: 17 m MT
Asia/Oceania Production: 281 m MT Consumption: 322 m MT Imports: 54 m MT Exports: 5 m MT Net Exports: (49) m MT
North America Production: 394 m MT Consumption: 354 m MT Imports: 18 m MT Exports: 43 m MT Net Exports: 25 m MT
11 Source: Monsanto Model
South America Production: 111 m MT Consumption: 82 m MT Imports: 11 m MT Exports: 42 m MT Net Exports: 31 m MT
Africa Production: 64 m MT Consumption: 78 m MT Imports: 16 m MT Exports: 3 m MT Net Exports: (13) m MT
The World in 2025 – Corn Asia, Africa, Lat Am = Consume 20% More in 10 Years Consumption 1074m MT
20% Europe/CIS Production: 126 m MT Consumption: 107 m MT Imports: 8 m MT Exports: 27 m MT Net Exports: 19 m MT 12%, 2m MT Increased Imports
Asia / Asia-Pacific Production: 318 m MT Consumption:388 m MT Imports: 78 m MT Exports: 7 m MT Net Exports: (70 m MT) 43%, 21m MT Increased Imports
North America Production: 432 m MT Consumption: 378 m MT Imports: 23 m MT Exports: 77 m MT Net Exports: 54 m MT 116%, 29m MT Increased Imports
12 Source: Monsanto Model
South America Production: 134 m MT Consumption: 103 m MT Imports: 15 m MT Exports: 46 m MT Net Exports: 31 m MT Consumption & Production Increase
Africa Production: 76 m MT Consumption: 98 m MT Imports: 25 m MT Exports: 3 m MT Net Exports: (22 m MT) 69%, 9m MT Increased Imports
Corn Grain Consumption is Projected to Outpace Production Corn - Domestic Consumption Less Domestic Production 16,000 14,000
1,000 MT
12,000
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024 Indonesia
Malaysia
Pakistan
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
• Gap b/w Domestic Production & Consumption expected to Widen, driven by increasing population 13 & income,
Indonesia - Corn Import Volume & Value up 10X in 5 Years 4,000,000 3,500,000
3,000,000 2,500,000
2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000
500,000 -
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014*
Import (Ton)
333,936
1,907,765
3,144,420
1,687,075
3,180,480
3,600,000
Value Import (KUS$)
97,145
554,986
914,740
490,785
925,231
1,047,273
GPMT : Indonesia Feed Mills Company Association 14 : BPS (Indonesia Statistic Bureau) and GPMT Data source
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Innovation of Ag & Seed Technologies
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INOVASI 16
Bagaimana Inovasi dirancang untuk menjawab tantangan tersebut?
MENINGKATKAN Hasil MENGURANGI Dampak Hama & penyakit serta cekaman abiotik 17
Inovasi Menggandakan keuntungan inovasi dengan menggabungkan semua kemampuan untuk mengatasi masalah and meningkatkan efisiensi BIOLOGICALS
BREEDING
Derived from natural materials to support plant health and pest protection
Highest yielding genetics for the environment: conventional breeding gains and natural disease resistance
CHEMISTRY BIOTECHNOLOGY AGRONOMICS
Complementary agronomic and yield-enhancing traits
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Optimizing farm management practices, including rotations, soil management, cover crops
Seed treatments and selective chemistries protect the crop from pests, weeds and diseases
Biotechnology: RR corn and BT corn
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Inovasi
BIOTEKNOLOGI
hasil Jagung tahan Roundup, tahan terhadap hama dan tahan hama penggerek batang
BIOTEKNOLOGI PERTANIAN SUDAH DITELITI LEBIH DARI 30 TAHUN DAN DITANAM SECARA KOMERSIAL SELAMA 17 TAHUN 20
Tanaman GMO menghasilkan pangan yang sama aman dan kandungannya dengan jagung konvensional
1.8 M
HA LUAS TANAM
USED FOR GMO CROPS SINCE 1996
600+
KAJIAN BEBAS
SUPPORT THAT GMO CROPS ARE JUST AS SAFE AS THOSE DEVELOPED THROUGH TRADITIONAL BREEDING
30 TAHUN
THAT GMO CROPS HAVE BEEN RESEARCHED AND DEVELOPED
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30 NEGARA
Inovasi
AROUND THE WORLD WHERE GM CROPS ARE GROWN TODAY
12 TAHUN
REQUIRED TO DEVELOP AND TEST GMO SEEDS BEFORE THEY’RE GROWN COMMERCIALLY IN THE U.S. (MORE THAN MANY MEDICATIONS)
Benefits of Corn Seeds for Weed Management
E.g. Roundup Ready Corn 2® Tech (NK603) offer farmers a choice to better manage weeds, improve efficiency of farm operations, optimize yield potential Corn Seeds for Weed Management Benefits (Corn Brand + RoundUp Ready Protein) + Roundup Over-the-Top Weedicide) Efficacy, Convenience & Flexibility in Weed Control • Manage Broad Spectrum of Weeds • Wide Application Window (Pre-Sowing to Harvest vs. current Selective Herbicides) Environmental Benefits • Nil Soil Residual activity
• Low Toxicity
Unweede
Excellent Fit in Low Tillage Systems Economic Benefits • Scale-Neutral Tool for Small & Large Farmers (cost of cultivation only as per individual land holding & weed pressure)
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Benefits of Corn Seeds for Weed Management
E.g. Roundup Ready Corn 2® Tech (NK603) offer farmers a choice to better manage weeds, improve efficiency of farm operations, optimize yield potential
25 Days After Planting Corn Field from Corn Hybrid Seeds with In-theSeed Weed Management Protein (Roundup Ready Corn) + Roundup Weedicide Spray 10 Days After Roundup Application at 2L / ha
25 Days After Planting Un-weeded Corn Field
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Source: Monsanto Technology Department, Luzon Philipp
POTENSI NILAI MANFAAT ROUNDUP READY CORN DI INDONESIA Monsanto - Technology Development 2014
PROVINSI YANG DISURVEY Sumatera Utara
Lampung
Jawa Tengah
Jawa Timur
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Efisiensi Biaya Pengendalian (Rp/ha) minus Rp. 220,000
Potensi Persen Peningkatan Hasil Panen dan Nilai Rupiah Potensi Manfat Panen/ha Total/ha
15% / Rp 3,500,000
Rp. 3,280,000
Herbisida: Minus Rp. 180,000 Manual/ kombinasi:
Herbisida: 15%/Rp 2,200,00 Manual/ kombinasi:
Rp. 2,020, 000
plus Rp. 50,000
13% / Rp 2,000,000
Rp. 2,050, 000
Manual: plus Rp. 600,000
Manual: 10% / Rp 1,600,000
Rp. 2,200,000
Herbisida/ Kombinasi
Herbisida/ Kombinasi
plus Rp. 320,000
15 % / Rp. 2,500,000
Rp. 2,820,000
Manual: Rp. 460,000
Manual: 10% / Rp 2.100,000
Rp. 2,560,000
Asian Corn Borer Pest reduces Yield Corn Hybrid Seeds with In-the-Seed Insect Protection reduce Insecticide Sprays, help optimize Yield Potential
Asian Corn Borer (ACB) is the #1 major pest of Corn in South East Asia. 25
Corn Earworm, Army worm, & Cut worm are also sporadic pests, which impact yield.
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Asian Corn Borers cause Significant Yield Loss Comparison of Corn Stalk Tunneling Corn borers tunnel into the stalk & ear shank to create extensive damage, many times not visible until farmer harvest less yield / lost yield.
Corn protected with In-the-seed YieldGard technology Protects against corn borers ensuring superior stalk quality. 26 Source: Monsanto Technology Department, 2010
Corn Stalks from Corn Stalks from Corn Hybrid Seeds Hybrid Seeds with In-the-Seed Conventional Insect Protection Proteins
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Hasil Survey Tingkat Serangan Hama Penggerek Batang di Indonesia (2011-2013)
POTENSI TAHU KEHILANGAN N MUSIM PROVINSI SURVEI HASIL (%) 2011 KEMARAU JAWA TIMUR 25 2012 KEMARAU 2013 KEMARAU
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5 4
5,356,585 1,067,775 748,650
7
1,089,625
20
3,944,040
10
1,897,500 750,030 842,145
2011
HUJAN
2012
HUJAN
JAWA TIMUR JAWA TENGAH SUMATERA UTARA SUMATERA UTARA SUMATERA UTARA
2013
HUJAN
JAWA TIMUR
4
2013
HUJAN
LAMPUNG
5
2013 KEMARAU
NILAI TAMBAH BILA MENGGUNAKAN JAGUNG BT TAHAN HAMA
Corn Pipeline Technologies Address Stress Tolerance, Nutrient Utilization and Next-Generation Insect and Weed Control GLYPHOSATE TOLERANT CORN INSECT TOLERANCE CORN FOPs-TOLERANT CORN
1996
GOSS’S WILT-RESISTANT CORN* GRAY LEAF SPOT-RESISTANT CORN* NITROGEN UTILIZATION CORN
Weed Management Solutions
Yield & Stress Next Generation Insect Control
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DICAMBA- AND GLUFOSINATE-TOLERANT CORN CORN BORER III 2ND-GENERATION DROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN
HIGHER YIELDING CORN ROOTWORM III ROUNDUP® HYBRIDIZATION SYSTEM FOR CORN
DROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN REFUGE-IN-A-BAG REDUCED REFUGE FAMILY
2011+
*Denotes a breeding project
Commercialization dependent on many factors, including successful conclusion of regulatory process
How Seed Industry can enable Indonesia’s Farmers to Overcome these Challenges
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Indonesia Corn Landscape
46% 54% 30 Major Corn Area 2.487.980 ha Hybrid 62% OPV 38%
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Indonesia Agriculture Summary Indonesia Key Challenges in Agriculture 1. Rising population – 15% by 2025, 47% by 2050 (248 M in 2013 to 284* M in 2025) 2. Changing Economics & Diet – growing middle class is choosing more protein (animal) 3. Shrinking arable land – more than 100 K Ha / year converted in to other function – Agriculture uses 55% arable land. Daily area equal to 36% of Jakarta (approx. 27,000 Ha) abandoned due to soil loss/degradation 4. Climate Change – low yield, pest & disease pressure 5. 80% of the bottom fifth of income earners reside in rural areas. 72% (172 Million) face acute food insecurity & live in rural & semi-rural areas. 60% of the poorest live on small farms. 43% are employed in farming. 6. Agriculture Import contribute to Trade Balance Negative Indonesia Key Opportunity in Agriculture – Corn 1. Improve Lives of Farmers & Farm Labour in Rural Areas …. create Jobs in Villages 2. Support Feed Industry Need & Growth 3. Feed the Nation, maybe ASEAN / World as Net Exporter of Corn
4. Net Positive Environmental Impact – Stop Deforestation for Food Production 31
*
BPS data
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Suggestions/Recommendations
1.
Encourage Farmers to convert from OPV to Hybrid
2.
Public Private Partnership (PPP) • PISAgro Corn Ecosystem Partnership Model – Better Inputs esp. Lower Bank Loan Interest Rates (8x Less!),
Better Seeds & Practices, Post Harvest & Guaranteed Procurement
3.
Better Market Linkages
4.
Transfer / Access to Technology
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How to Reduce Corn Import – Two Paths : IPB Two Options/Paths to Create additional 6.7 Mio MT + 2.3 Mio MT = 9 Mio MT
• Current Hybrid Farmers adopt Hybrids with Biotech = 10-17% Yield Increase* – Hybrids on 1.955 Mio Ha land X 1.2 MT/Ha (Incremental Yield of 17% of 7 MT) = + 2.3 Mio MT + Increase Farmer Income by 20%, Optimize Cost by 15% How To: Approve Corn Seeds with Biotech, Seed & Feed Industry can enable
• Govt. Incentivises Current OPV Farmers to Convert to Hybrid = 3-7 MT/Ha – OPV on 1.666 Mio Ha land X 4 MT/Ha = + 6.7 Mio MT – How to: • Needs Massive Implementation of Government Subsidy Program Targeted at each OPV Farmer to transition & use Right Farming Behaviors
• Create/Incentivize Feed Industry to Develop Market Linkages & Infrastructure, Silos & Roads • Transfer Technology = Biotech + Good Farming/ Agronomic Practices
*LPPM 33 – Care IPB
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Executive Summary
• We believe Indonesia can achieve Self-Sufficiency in Corn • We believe Indonesia can support Asia Pacific in Corn Grain
• There are existing technologies farmers use in other parts of the world that can support production growth • A Collaborative Ecosystem Approach & Shared Responsibility from Policy + Products + Practices + Partnerships can make this reality • Need to put Farmers @ the Centre
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TERIMA KASIH
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Indonesian Farmers Impact Forecast of Corn Hybrid Seeds with Traits : PG Economics, UK • Farmers’ Average Corn Yield Increase upto +15% • Addl Income of $200 – 500/ha vs. Conventional Corn Hybrid Seeds or Open Pollinated Varietal (OPV) Seeds • Cumulative Farmers Addl Income around $350 Million at 40% Trait Adoption in 10 years (Monsanto Forecast 80% Trait Adoption at 65% of Hybridization) • Farmers’ Addl Income = Improve quality of life – Improving diets, home improvements, purchase of goods & services, healthcare & children’s education – Women reduced time hand weeding = Childcare, alternative agricultural or non-agricultural employment – Children stop hand weeding = spend more time on education 37
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