MANAJEMEN (RISK MANAGEMENT)

MANAJEMEN RESIKO (RISK MANAGEMENT)

D E F I N I S I † Resiko: Ukuran probability dan konsekwensi tidak tercapainya tujuan proyek yang telah ditentukan: could be anything

† Tidak mudah untuk diketahui mengingat probability dan konsekwensi kejadian umumnya sulit diukur Æ memerlukan pendugaan statistik

† Komponen resiko: „ Probability kejadian „ Impact dari kejadian

D E F I N I S I …

Probability

† Resiko = f(probability, impact) Tinggi Resiko Tinggi

Rendah

Resiko Kecil

Resiko Sedang

Kecil Event

Besar I

m

p

a

c

t

D E F I N I S I … † Resiko disebabkan oleh ketidak tahuan akan kejadian di masa yang akan datang Æ opportunity dan risk † Elemen lain dari resiko adalah penyebab (bahaya) dan kehati kehati-hatian hatian (waspada): R ik = f(hazard, Resiko f(h d safeguard) f d)

D E F I N I S I … † Risk averter (avoider): menyukai hasil ( t (outcome) ) yang pasti ti untuk t k dapat d t menerima resiko † Risk neutral: menyukai mengambil tindakan berdasarkan keadaan ( (expected d value) l ) † Risk seeker: menyukai y hasil (outcome) yang tidak pasti dan berani mengambil resiko

KETIDAKPASTIAN RESIKO † Decision making under certainty „ Ada p pilihan y yang g dominan

† Decision making under risk „ Pilihan terbaik didasarkan pada nilai harapan (expected value) yang terbesar

† Decision making under uncertainty „ „ „ „

Maximax: Memaksimumkan profit Maximin: Meminimumkan kerugian Minimax: Meminimumkan regret Laplace: Transform uncertainty to risk

DEFINISI MANAJEMEN RESIKO S O † Adalah Ad l h tindakan ti d k atau t praktek kt k untuk mengatasi resiko, meliputi: „ Perencanaan resiko „ Penilaian ((assessing) g) resiko y yang g mencakup identifikasi dan analisis „ Penanganan g resiko „ Pemantauan resiko

PERENCANAAN RESIKO (RISK PLANNING)

† This is the process of developing and documenting an organized, comprehensive and interactive comprehensive, strategy and methods for identifying and analyzing risk issues, developing risk handling plans and monitoring how risk plans, have changed.

PENILAIAN RESIKO (RISK ASSESSMENT)

† This process involves identifying and analyzing l program area and d criticall technical process risks to increase the likelihood of meeting cost, cost performance, and schedule objective „ Risk identification: examining the program areas and each critical technical process to identify and document the associated risk „ Risk Ri k analysis: l i examining i i each h id identified tifi d risk issue to estimate the likelihood and predict the impact p p of the p project j

PENANGANAN RESIKO (RISK HANDLING)

† This is the process that identifies, evaluates, selects, and p one or more strategies g implements in order to set risk at acceptance levels given program constraints and objectives: what should be done, when it should be accomplished, who is responsible, associated cost and schedule

PEMANTAUAN RESIKO (RISK MONITORING)

† This is the process that systematically tracks and evaluates the performance off risk i k handling h dli actions ti against i t established metrics throughout the acquisition process and provides inputs to updating risk handling strategies as appropriate.

Analisa Resiko (risk analysis)

† † † † † † † † †

Comparison C i with i h similar i il systems Relevant lessons-learned studies Experience Result from tests and prototype development D t from Data f om engineering enginee ing or o other othe models model Specialist and expert judgment Analysis a ys s of o plans p a s and a d related e ated documents docu e ts Modeling and simulation Sensitivity analysis of alternatives

Ketergantungan antar Resiko (risk interdependencies) ( p ) Action

Possible Benefit

Risk

Work overtime

Schedule compression

More mistakes; higher cost and longer schedule

Add resources

Schedule compression

Higher cost and learning curve shift

Parallel work

Schedule compression

Rework and higher cost

Reduce scope

Schedule compression and lower cost

Unhappy customer and no follow-on work

Hire low-cost resources

Lower cost

More mistake and longer time period

Outsource critical work

Lower cost and Contractor p possesses schedule compression critical knowledge at your expense

Developing p g Contingency g y Plan † Risk i k avoidance; id Risk i k prevention: i “foolproofing” † Risk Mitigation or Reduction: Placing air bags in cars † Risk Transfer: Risk prevention through insurance