Delivering the Future of Tin
ITRI- A Global Tin Industry Network Major tin producers • ITRI Board members • Discuss tin industry strategy • Focal point for tackling issues
Tin users and supply chain • Global networks • ITRI can inform and influence ITRI ‘Developers & Explorers Group’ • Future sustainable supply
ITRI- How we operate Communication with Users
Statistics & Market Studies
Technology
Laboratory
Information to Producers
Sustainability & Regulatory Affairs
Influence & Intervention
ITRI- Working with tin producers
2012 refined tin production, tonnes. ITRI members shown in red.
ITRI Tin User Networks
Growing a sustainable tin industry “Working together to ensure an innovative, competitive, and sustainable supply chain and market for tin”
Accurate market information Future markets for tin Positive promotion of tin
Positive Promotion of Tin Threats from legislation • Tracking and intervention
Need for sustainability data • Supports positive policymaking
Supply chain influence • Preservation of reputation of tin • Reassurance to users
Projects in Indonesia and Africa Tackling concerns about sustainability, environment, communities, and conflict
Tackling tin industry issues- Indonesia
ITRI role – to bring together stakeholders from upstream and downstream
New trade regulations – if implemented rigorously will require greater transparency and traceability
Impacts of tin mining on Bangka – positive (economic) and negative (environment).
Level of confusion/lack of clarity- need to base any assessment on facts.
Bangka Tin Forum – opportunity for discussion, clarification, future initiatives.
ITRI Conferences
Indonesia’s position in the global tin industry
ITRI Indonesia Tin Forum Pangkalpinang, 11 December 2013 Peter Kettle Manager – Markets, ITRI Ltd
Presentation outline
1
Price history: long- and short-term
2
China supply/demand position critical
3
Indonesia’s position in the global industry
4
Demand outlook improving
5
Production costs and prices rising
Long-term movements in tin prices
Tin price histogram 1900-2012
Long-term tin price history US$/tonne, inflation adjusted 2010 prices 40,000 60 35,000
Price range, $000/tonne, 2010 real terms
Number of years in each price band
50
30,000 40 25,000 20,000
30
15,000
20
10,000
10
5,000 0 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
0 to 5 5 to 10 to 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Tin versus other LME metal prices 600
Tin
Nov 2013 vs Nov 2012 price Tin
400
Zinc
Index
500
300
Lead
LME Copper
200
Aluminium 100
LME and Tin price index (2000 =100)
0 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12
Nickel -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
5% 10%
China refined tin and mine output ’000 tonnes 160 140 120 100
Gap between mine and refined tin production filled by raw material imports and secondary production
80 60 40 20
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
China net trade in refined tin
tonnes 60,000
Net Export
Net swing over last decade > 50,000 tpy
50,000 40,000
30,000 20,000 10,000 0
-10,000 -20,000 -30,000
Net Import
10% export duty imposed in 2008. Exports since then estimated from 3rd country import data
World tin supply – major producers ’000t
Leading tin producing countries – long term trends
300
China
250
Indonesia
200
Malaysia
150
Bolivia
100
Peru 50
ROW 0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Data: ITRI
Indonesia import dependence
tonnes, % share Japan S Korea Taiwan USA France Germany Italy Spain UK Total 9 China
Annual imports 27,800 15,400 10,000 36,600 5,100 20,000 4,100 6,000 4,100 129,100
Direct 50.4% 37.9% 68.4% 15.3% 2.7% 7.6% 44.1% 26.8% 7.1% 29.2%
Direct & indirect 79.1% 62.9% 76.8% 24.2% 2.7% 8.2% 54.8% 28.5% 8.9% 46.6%
22,200
47.6%
60.5%
Data: National official import statistics, ITRI estimates
Based on import data for the last three years. Indirect imports take into account tin re-refined in Malaysia and Thailand
Mine output by scale of operation ’000 tonnes t-i-c, 2012 Indonesia China
Peru Bolivia
Larger
Small
Brazil Artisanal and small mines accounted for 43% of world production
DR Congo Rest 0
20
40
60
80
100
Fluctuations in Indonesian exports 12-month moving total of tonnage of metal checked prior to export New regulation from 1 July / 30 August
110,000
105,000 100,000 95,000 90,000 Export Halt – Q4 ’11
85,000
2012 price low in August
Global Financial Crisis
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
80,000
Shares in Indonesian production Quarterly estimated production of tin-in-concentrate, ’000tonnes 40
Private /TI PT Koba Tin PT Timah
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
ICDX prices and volumes
24,000
900
Prices, US$/tonne
Combined volumes in all ICDX tin contracts, tonnes
800 23,500 700
23,000
600 500
22,500 400 ICDX TINPB300 22,000
300 LME Cash Settlement 200
21,500 100 01-Dec
21-Nov
11-Nov
01-Nov
22-Oct
12-Oct
02-Oct
22-Sep
12-Sep
0 02-Sep
01-Dec
21-Nov
11-Nov
01-Nov
22-Oct
12-Oct
02-Oct
22-Sep
12-Sep
02-Sep
21,000
Global tin use by industry sector
Consumer electronics Packaging
Solder - electronic Solder - industrial
Transport
Tinplate
Construction
Chemicals
Industrial equipment
Brass & Bronze Float Glass
Other
Others 0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Global growth in use of LME metals 200
Index of world usage, base 2000 = 100 Aluminium
180
Lead 160
Nickel Zinc
140 Copper Tin
120 100
Data: ITRI for tin, CRU for other LME metals
80 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
ITRI tin use survey – initial results
% change in refined tin use
NB: Based on un-weighted, incomplete sample of companies outside China 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0%
2012 -4.0%
2013e
-6.0% -8.0% -10.0%
Total
Others
Chemicals
Tinplate
Solders
Supply deficits for five years
Forecast world supply/demand position and prices Forecast 000 tonnes
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
World Refined Production 335.6 DLA Sales 0.0 World Refined Consumption 325.3 Global Market Balance 10.3 Reported stocks: LME 26.8 Producers 7.7 Consumer/other 11.6 Total 46.1 World Stock Ratio (week s consumption) 7.4 LME cash price (US$/tonne) Actual/Central Forecast 13,592
354.6 0.0 362.0 -7.4
355.2 0.0 360.2 -5.0
334.3 0.0 337.2 -2.9
333.3 0.0 340.7 -7.4
339.3 0.0 351.7 -12.4
16.4 7.8 11.1 35.3
12.1 8.2 9.6 29.9
12.8 9.2 10.7 32.7
10.0 8.0 10.0 28.0
5.0 7.0 8.0 20.0
5.1
4.3
5.0
4.3
3.0
20,447
26,025
21,093
22,300
26,000
Data: ITRI
Technology Threats and Opportunities Main potential gains or losses in global tin use tpy Lead-free electronics Niche solder opportunities Lithium ion batteries Stainless steel Catalysts
Glass coatings
A range of small positive factors offset one big negative over next 5 – 10 years. Net effect: +2,000 tpy
Lead-acid batteries Fuel catalysts PVC stabilisers Solder competitors Low coating weight tinplate Miniaturisation -40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000
0
10,000
20,000
Tin research portfolio
Energy a dominant market driver
Battery technologies with tin
• Lead-acid • Lithium-ion • Magnesium-ion
• Sodium-ion
Recycling contribution to tin use
35.0%
Secondary refined tin
Recycling Input Rate (RIR)
33.0%
Solder alloy/scrap
31.0%
Bronze alloy/scrap
29.0%
27.0%
Other alloy/scrap 25.0% '000 tonnes 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
RIR = Secondary refined tin metal plus secondary alloys, scrap and drosses as a proportion of total tin use in all forms.
World tin reserves by country
4.9%
China
3.7%
30.5%
6.3%
Indonesia Malaysia
7.1%
Thailand Brazil Bolivia
8.1%
USSR/Russia
Peru Australia Other countries 16.3%
14.5% 3.5% Data: USGS
5.1%
*No estimates for African countries made by USGS.
Tin projects at different stages Numbers of projects Commissioning Construction
Financing
Typical timescale from maiden resource to production is 10 – 12 years
Permitting Feasibility Pre-feasibility Scoping Advanced exploration Early exploration 0
10
20
30
New tin supply in the next decade
Potential production from new projects, 2014-2023, tonnes 100,000 90,000
Others*
80,000 70,000
Peru
60,000
Germany
50,000 40,000
Morocco
30,000
Russia
20,000
Australia
10,000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
* Egypt, DR Congo, Kazakhstan, Canada, Argentina, UK
Capital intensity of new projects
Costs per tonne - Company estimates Company
Project
Consolidated Tin Mines Mt Garnet**
Capex (million) Currency* 76.0 Aus$
Capacity (tpy Sn) Capex/tpy Source/Date 2,940 24,605 PFS 2013
Kasbah Resources
Achmmach
166.8
US$
6,900
24,200
PFS 2012
Metals X
Rentails
194.0
Aus$
5,300
36,600
BFS 2009
Minsur
San Rafael Tailings
170.0
US$
6,340
26,800
SS 2013
Northern Tin
Pyrkakay
298.5
US$
11,100
26,900
BFS 2011
Pravourmiyskoye
Pravourmiyskoye
81.3
US$
2,690
30,200
SS 2011
Stellar Resources
Heemskirk**
114.0
US$
4,330
26,300
PFS 2013
Venture Minerals
Mount Lindsay***
198.0
Aus$
2,750
72,000
BFS 2012
42,350
30,700
Total and average
1298.6
*Assumed that 1 Aus$ = 1 US$, except where stated otherwise ** Mt Garnet PFS based on Au$/US$0.95, Heemskirk PFS based on Au$/US$0.90 *** Mount Lindsay will have significant tungsten and magnetite co-product revenues Sources: SS = Scoping Study, PFS = Pre-feasibility Study, BFS = Bankable Feasibility Study, ITRI estimates
Price influences to 2020
Increased substitution and economisation
45,000 LME price, US$/tonne 40,000 35,000 Rapid demand growth and rising production costs
30,000
25,000 20,000
Oversupply – large Chinese exports
15,000 10,000
Stock drawdown - lack of new mine supply
5,000
Resource depletion in main producer countries. High costs for new mines
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
POTRET EKONOMI DAN SOSIAL KEPULAUAN BANGKA BELITUNG berdasarkan data BPS disampaikan pada
ITRI INDONESIA TIN FORUM 11 Desember 2013
Badan Pusat Statistik • • • •
Pengumpulan Data Statistik Dasar Pembinaan dibidang statistik, antara lain: melakukan penyebarluasan informasi statistik mengajak masyarakat untuk memahami arti dan kegunaan statistik • meningkatkan penggunaan dan pemanfaatan hasil statistik untuk mendukung pembangunan
Potret yang disajikan
• Tabel I-O Kep. Babel 2010 DP dan DK • Ekonomi PDRB, Ekspor, Inflasi dan ITK • Sosial Penduduk dan Tenaga Kerja
Tabel Input-Output (I-O) 2010 Dari hasil plot 60 sektor dalam tabel I-O diperoleh sektor-sektor yang mempunyai Daya Penyebaran (DP) dan Derajat Kepekaan (DK) yang tinggi
Plot Indeks Daya Penyebaran dan Indeks Derajat Kepekaan
Sektor dengan Indeks DP dan Indeks DK >1 SEKTOR
DP
IDP
DK
IDK
18
Industri Makanan
1,72228
1,33739
1,34667
1,04573
48
Penyediaan Makan Minum
1,48883
1,15612
1,57892
1,22607
41
Angkutan Darat
1,47588
1,14606
1,62300
1,26031
39
Konstruksi (Gedung, Bangunan Sipil, Khusus)
1,47119
1,14242
1,66852
1,29565
44
Angkutan Udara
1,47030
1,14173
1,33839
1,03929
37
Pengadaan Listrik dan Gas
1,47027
1,14170
1,78400
1,38533
25
Industri Kayu, Barang dari Kayu dan Gabus (Tidak Termasuk Furnitur) dan Barang Anyaman dari Bambu, Rotan dan Sejenisnya
1,36602
1,06075
1,49802
1,16325
40
Perdagangan Besar dan Eceran, dan Reparasi Mobil dan Sepeda Motor
1,33153
1,03397
3,97946
3,09016
Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) PDRB Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung baik harga berlaku maupun konstan dari tahun 2008– 2013*) mengalami perkembangan positif
Perkembangan PDRB adhb 2008–2013***) (Persen) Selama kurun waktu 5 tahun (2008-2012) secara rata-rata PDRB atas dasar harga berlaku mengalami peningkatan sebesar 13,99 persen Sampai dengan Triwulan III-2013, PDRB meningkat 12,99 persen
19.71 16.15 12.85 13.86
12.99
7.36
2008
2009
2010
2011*) 2012**) 2013**)
2011 *) = Angka Sementara; 2012**) = Angka Sangat Sementara; 2013***) = s.d Triwulan 3 2013
PDRB adhb Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Tahun 2008 – 2012 (Juta Rupiah) Dengan Migas
ADHB ADHK
2008 21,421,340 9,899,926
2009 22,997,899 10,270,106
2010 26,712,971 10,884,947
2011*) 30,415,637 11,587,749
2012**) 34,325,420 12,251,022
2008 20,846,416 9,713,204
2009 22,434,697 10,100,230
2010 26,107,443 10,714,794
2011*) 29,778,686 11,414,911
2012**) 33,676,668 12,079,670
Tanpa Migas
ADHB ADHK
Ekonomi Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Triwulan III-2013 tumbuh 4,7 persen (y-on-y) atau 1,2 persen (q-to-q) 8 770,1
4,7%
9 570,7
1,2%
9 885,5
3 107,7
3 215,0
3 252,8 ADHK ADHB
Triwulan III-2012 Triwulan II-2013 Triwulan III-2013 http://babel.bps.go.id/
PDRB adhb Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Januari-September Tahun 2008 – 2013 (Juta Rupiah) Dengan Migas
2008 ADHB 15,892,192 ADHK 7,441,236
2009 17,169,440 7,638,540
2010 19,491,252 8,088,476
2011*) 22,491,841 8,630,288
2012**) 25,350,801 9,113,702
2013***) 28,644,971 9,606,719
Tanpa Migas
2008 ADHB 15,418,985 ADHK 7,287,911
2009 16,738,245 7,507,860
2010 19,048,944 7,962,928
2011*) 22,011,882 8,500,140
2012**) 24,868,198 8,986,576
2013***) 28,118,704 9,472,470
Struktur Ekonomi menurut Lapangan Usaha (Persen) 2012
1. Pertanian 2. Pertambangan & Penggalian 3. Industri Pengolahan 4. Listrik, Gas & Air Bersih 5. Konstruksi
2013
6. Perdagangan, Hotel & restoran 7. Pengangkutan & Komunikasi 8. Keuangan, Persewaan & Jasa Perush 9. Jasa-jasa
Struktur Ekonomi menurut Pengelompokkan Sektor (Primer, Sekunder, Tersier) (Persen) Dalam kurun waktu 5 tahun terakhir, kontribusi sektor primer dan sekunder terus menurun, sedangkan sektor tersier meningkat. Berdasarkan data sampai dengan triwulan III maka struktur tahun 2013 sbb: Primer 34,04% ; Sekunder 28,17% dan Tersier 37,80%
2012
34.41
28.30
37.29
2011
34.93
28.83
36.24
2010
36.18
28.97
34.85
2009
36.88
29.09
34.03
2008
37.11
29.52
33.37
Primer
Sekunder
Tersier
Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Tahun 2008 – 2013*) (Persen) Tanpa Migas 6.08
6.53
6.46
5.82 5.99
5.41 5.72
4.93
Pertumbuhan ekonomi 6 tahun terakhir cukup stabil rata-rata 5,32 persen dengan migas dan 5,46 persen tanpa migas
5.41
Pertumbuhan ekonomi di Januari-September tahun 2013 melambat 5,41 persen dengan migas maupun tanpa migas
4.60
3.98
3.74
Dengan Migas
Ket : 2013*) Data sd Triwulan III 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*)
Lapangan Usaha
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 *)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
1. Pertanian
4.07
3.67
7.77
4.65
7.81
8,08
2. Pertambangan dan Penggalian
-0.81
1.46
0.81
3.67
1.14
-0,35
3. Industri Pengolahan
2.87
2.81
3.72
3.10
2.17
4,06
4. Listrik, Gas, dan Air Bersih
6.00
8.21
7.96
13.59
7.47
5,45
5. Konstruksi
13.37
9.03
9.52
13.37
10.96
5,39
6. Perdagangan, Hotel, & Restoran
6.69
2.06
6.77
8.98
5.96
4,03
7. Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi
10.27
4.71
7.78
9.40
9.47
8,13
8. Keuangan, Real Estat, dan Jasa Perusahaan
4.15
8.89
9.34
9.05
10.96
6,61
9. Jasa-Jasa
8.95
8.72
10.05
10.95
7.46
8,23
4.60
3.74
5.99
6.46
5.72
5,41
PDRB
http://babel.bps.go.id/
Lapangan Usaha
2012
2013
Triwulan II
Triwulan III
Triwulan II
Triwulan III
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
1. Pertanian
18,6
18,7
19,2
19,3
2. Pertambangan dan Penggalian
16,1
15,5
15,0
14,4
3. Industri Pengolahan
19,3
19,1
18,9
18,5
4. Listrik, Gas, dan Air Bersih
0,7
0,7
0,7
0,7
5. Konstruksi
8,2
8,5
8,5
8,7
19,1
19,1
18,9
18,8
3,4
3,5
3,5
3,7
2,8
2,8
2,8
2,9
11,8
12,1
12,5
13,0
100,0
100,0
100,0
100,0
(1)
6. Perdagangan, Hotel, dan Restoran 7. Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi 8. Keuangan, Real Estat, dan Jasa ePerusahaan 9. Jasa-Jasa
PDRB
http://babel.bps.go.id/
Ekspor Ekspor Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung dari tahun 2009– 2011 terus meningkat, baik Timah maupun non-Timah sejak 2012 – 2013*) nilainya terus menurun
Ringkasan Perkembangan Ekspor Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Nilai FOB (Juta US $) Tahun 2008-2012
Jan-Okt 2012 dan 2013
Uraian 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2012*)
2013*)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
Total Ekspor
2.036,0
1.269,9
1.787,5
2.833,0
2.236,0
1.925,4
1.234,3
Timah
1.620,1
1.014,4
1.419,1
2.089,0
1.528,3
1.312,5
1.056,2
415,8
255,5
368,4
744,0
707,7
612,9
178,1
(1)
Non Timah
*) Akumulasi Ekspor bulan Januari-Oktober 2012 dan 2013
Nilai ekspor Januari - Oktober 2013 mencapai ekspor timah sebesar US$ 1.056,2 juta non timah sebesar US$ 178,1 juta.
-35,9% 612.9
1.925,4 Juta US$
Non Timah 178.1 -19,5%
1312.5
Jan-Okt 2012
Timah
1.234,3 Juta US $
1056.2
Jan-Okt 2013
Sep-2013
Oct-2013
Ekspor Non Timah menurut Golongan Barang HS 2 Digit Bulan Januari-Oktober 2012 dan 2013 Golongan Barang (HS)
Jan-Okt 2012
Jan-Okt 2013
(1)
(4)
(5)
% Peran thd
% Peran thd
% Perubahan
Total Jan-Okt Total Jan-Okt 2012 2013
Jan-Okt 2013 thd 2012
(7)
(7)
(8)
1. Miny ak atau lemak hewani dan nabati (15)
95,4
98,8
15,6
55,5
3,6
2. Karet dan barang-barang dari karet (40)
58,5
40,2
9,5
22,6
-31,3
3. Kopi, Teh dan rempah-rempah (09)
15,9
28,4
2,6
15,9
78,9
6,2
8,4
1,0
4,7
36,9
Total 4 Golongan Barang
175,9
175,8
28,7
98,7
-0,1
Lainnya
437,0
2,3
71,3
1,3
-99,5
Total Ekspor Non Timah
612,9
178,1
100,0
100,0
-70,9
4. Hasil perikanan dan olahan (03)
Inflasi Setelah Krisis Keuangan tahun 2008 (inflasi sebesar 18,40 persen) maka inflasi di Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung relatif stabil (masih di bawah 2 dijit)
7,36%
Inflasi Tahun Kalender (Januari –November) 2013
8,34%
Inflasi year on year
(November 2013 Terhadap November 2012)
Laju Inflasi Tahun Kalender 2013 dan Year on Year kondisi sampai November 2013, Menurut Kelompok Pengeluaran di Kota Pangkalpinang Laju Inflasi
Laju
Tahun
Inflasi
Kalender
Year on
2013
Year
(4)
(5)
7,36
8,34
1 Bahan makanan
7,34
9,04
2 Makanan jadi, minuman, rokok dan tembakau
5,38
6,16
3 Perumahan, air, listrik, gas dan bahan bakar
9,31
9,49
4 Sandang
1,50
1,73
5 Kesehatan
5,08
5,95
6 Pendidikan, rekreasi dan olahraga
3,78
3,97
11,85
13,70
Kelom pok Pengeluaran
(1) UMUM
7 Transportasi,komunikasi dan Jasa Keuangan
Indeks Tendensi Konsumen (ITK) ITK adalah indikator perkembangan ekonomi berdasarkan persepsi kondisi konsumen
Penduduk dan Tenaga Kerja
Penduduk 15 tahun ke atas menurut Kegiatan Terbanyak, 2008 – 2013 Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung
Kegiatan Utama
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
1.153.940
1.189.669
1.223.296
1.261.737
1.298.168
Angkatan Kerja
524 310
539 410
628 095
611 698
604 163
619 700
a. Bekerja
494 655
506 284
585 136
589 634
583 102
596 786
31 421
33 126
34 927
22 064
21 061
22 914
64,28
65,06
66,53
68,43
65,67
62,90
5,99
6,14
5,63
3,61
3,49
3,70
Penduduk
b. Tidak Bekerja (Pengangguran Terbuka) Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja (TPAK)
Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT)
5,99% 3,70% 3,61%
3,49%
2008
2013 2011
2012
Ringkasan
Rincian Indikator
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 *)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
1. Growth Ekonomi (PDRB adhk)
4.60
3.74
5.99
6.46
5.72
5,41
2. Nilai Ekonomi (PDRB adhb)
19.71
7.36
16.15
13.86
12.85
12.99
3. Nilai Ekspor
62.30
-37.63
40.76
58.49
-21.07
-35.89
4. IHK / Inflasi
18.40
2.17
9.36
5.00
6.57
8.34
5. Penduduk
3.11
3.10
2.83
3.14
2.89
http://babel.bps.go.id/
TERIMA KASIH