Chapter 4 Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management Frank K. Reilly & Keith C. Brown
Part 1: BACKGROUND 1 Seting Investasi
2 Alokasi Aset
3 Investasi
RETURN RISIKO PASAR MODAL
5 Indeks
4 Pasar 2
FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Chapter 4 Organization and Functioning of Securities Markets Questions to be answered: 1. What is the purpose and function of a market? 2. What are the characteristics that determine the quality of a market? 3. What is the difference between a primary and secondary capital market and how do these markets support each other? 4. What are the national exchanges and how are the major security markets becoming linked (what is meant by “passing the book”)? 5. What are the regional stock exchanges and the over-the-counter (OTC) market? 6. What are the alternative market-making arrangements available on the exchanges and the OCT market?
3 FE UNS
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7.
What are the major types of orders available to investors and market makers? 8. What are the major functions of a specialist on the NYSE and how does the specialist differ from the central market maker on other exchanges? 9. What are the major factors that have caused the significant changes in markets around the world in the past 10 to 15 years? 10. What are some of the major changes in world capital markets expected over the next decade? 4 FE UNS
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What is a market? • Membawa pembeli & penjual bersama unt membantu dlm transfer baran dan jasa • Tidak mesti butuh lokasi scr phisik • Kedua pembeli & penjual memperoleh manfaat dari pasar
5 FE UNS
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Characteristics of a Good Market • Ketersediaan informasi transaksi yang telah terjadi (past) – Hrs tepat waktu dan akurat
• Likuiditas – marketability – Kontinyuitas harga – depth
• Biaya transaksi rendah • Penyesuaian harga yg cepat atas informasi baru (efisien)
6 FE UNS
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Organization of the Securities Market • Pasar Perdana (Primary markets) – Pasar tempat sekuritas baru dijual & dana mengalir (langsung) pd persh penerbit
• Pasar Skunder (Secondary markets) – Pasar tempat investor jual-beli sekuritas yg beredar (bukan IPO). Persh penerbit sekuritas tdk lagi menerima dana dr transaksi di pasar skunder 7 FE UNS
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Government Bond Issues 1. Treasury Bills – negotiable, non-interest bearing securities with original maturities of one year or less 2. Treasury Notes – original maturities of 2 to 10 years 3. Treasury Bonds – original maturities of more than 10 years
8 FE UNS
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Municipal Bond Issues • Sold by three methods – Competitive bid – Negotiation – Private placement
• Underwriters sell the bonds to investors – Origination – Risk-bearing – Distribution 9 FE UNS
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The Underwriting Function • The investment banker purchases the entire issue from the issuer and resells the security to the investing public. • The firm charges a commission for providing this service. • For municipal bonds, the underwriting function is performed by both investment banking firms and commercial banks 10 FE UNS
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Corporate Bond and Stock Issues New issues are divided into two groups 1. Seasoned new issues - new shares offered by firms that already have stock outstanding 2. Initial public offerings (IPOs) - a firm selling its common stock to the public for the first time 11 FE UNS
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Underwriting Relationships with Investment Bankers 1. Negotiated – Most common – Full services of underwriter 2. Competitive bids – Corporation specifies securities offered – Lower costs – Reduced services of underwriter 3. Best-efforts – Investment banker acts as broker 12 FE UNS
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Introduction of Rule 415 • Allows firms to register securities and sell them piecemeal over the next two years • Referred to as shelf registrations • Great flexibility • Reduces registration fees and expenses • Allows requesting competitive bids from several investment banking firms • Mostly used for bond sales 13 FE UNS
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Private Placements and Rule 144A • Firms sells to a small group of institutional investors without extensive registration • Lower issuing costs than public offering
14 FE UNS
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Why Secondary Financial Markets Are Important • Provides liquidity to investors who acquire securities in the primary market • Results in lower required returns than if issuers had to compensate for lower liquidity • Helps determine market pricing for new issues 15 FE UNS
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Secondary Bond Market • Secondary market for U.S. government and municipal bonds – U.S. government bonds traded by bond dealers – Banks and investment firms make up municipal market makers
• Secondary corporate bond market – Traded through an OTC market 16 FE UNS
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Financial Futures Bond futures are traded in • Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) • Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
17 FE UNS
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Secondary Equity Markets 1. Major national stock exchanges – New York, American, Tokyo, and London stock exchanges
2. Regional stock exchanges – Chicago, San Francisco, Boston, Osaka, Nagoya, Dublin, Cincinnati
3. Over-the-counter (OTC) market – Stocks not listed on organized exchange 18 FE UNS
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Trading Systems • Pure auction market – Buyers and sellers are matched by a broker at a central location – Price-driven market
• Dealer market – Dealers provide liquidity by buying and selling shares – Dealers may compete against other dealers 19 FE UNS
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Call Versus Continuous Markets • Call markets trade individual stocks at specified times to gather all orders and determine a single price to satisfy the most orders • Used for opening prices on NYSE if orders build up overnight or after trading is suspended • In a continuous market, trades occur at any time the market is open 20 FE UNS
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National Stock Exchanges • Large number of listed securities • Prestige of firms listed • Wide geographic dispersion of listed firms • Diverse clientele of buyers and sellers 21 FE UNS
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New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) • Largest organized securities market in United States • Established in 1817, but dates back to the 1792 Buttonwood Agreement by 24 brokers • Over 3,000 companies with securities listed • Total market value over $13 trillion
22 FE UNS
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American Stock Exchange (AMEX) • Started by a group who traded unlisted stocks at the corner of Wall and Hanover Streets in New York as the Outdoor Curb Market • Emphasis on foreign securities • Doesn’t trade stocks listed on NYSE • Merged with the NASDAQ IN 1998 although they continued to operate as separate markets • Warrants traded on AMEX years before NYSE listed any 23 FE UNS
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Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) • Largest of the eight exchanges in Japan • Dominates the Japanese market • Established in 1878 and reorganized in 1943, 1947, and 1949 • Price-drive system • Domestic and foreign stocks listed • Approximately 1700 stocks listed with a total market value of $2.4 trillion • Most active 150 stocks are traded on floor, others by computer 24 FE UNS
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London Stock Exchange (LSE) • Largest securities market in the United Kingdom • Trades listed and unlisted securities – More than 2,600 companies listed • Largest listing of foreign stocks on any exchange • Total market value of more than $561billion • Pricing system by competing dealers via computers similar to NASDAQ system in U.S.
25 FE UNS
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Trends • New exchanges in emerging economies such as Russia, Poland, China, Hungary, Peru, Sri Lanka • Consolidation of existing exchanges in developed countries • Global twenty-four-hour market – made possible by advances in technology 26 FE UNS
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Recent Consolidations • In 1995, Germany’s three largest exchanges merged into the one in Frankfurt • NASD merged with AMEX • Philadelphia Stock Exchange merged with NASD/AMEX • CBOE merged with Pacific Exchange • The Amsterdam, Brussels and Paris exchanges formed an alliance • The Stockholm, Copenhagen, and Oslo exchanges formed an alliance called the Nordic Country Alliance 27 FE UNS
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Bandi, 2010
The Global Twenty-four Hour Market • Investment firms “pass the book” around the world to maintain nearly continuous trading by utilizing markets at Tokyo, London, and New York
THE TRADING DAY TSE LSE NYSE
Local Time 09:00 - 11:00 13:00 - 15:00 08:15 - 16:15 09:30 - 16:00
EST 23:00 - 01:00 03:00 - 05:00 02:15 - 10:15 09:30 - 16:00 28
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Regional Exchanges • Stocks not listed on a formal exchange – Listing requirements vary
• Listed stocks – Allow brokers that are not members of a national exchange access to securities
• Regional Exchanges in United States – Chicago, Boston, Cincinnati, Pacific, Philadelphia 29 FE UNS
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Over-the-Counter (OTC) Market • Not a formal organization • Largest segment of the U.S. secondary market • Unlisted stocks and listed stocks (third market) • Lenient requirements for listing on OTC • 5,000 issues actively traded on NASDAQ NMS (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations National Market System) • 1,000 issues on NASDAQ apart from NMS • 1,000 issues not on NASDAQ 30 FE UNS
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Operation of the OTC • Any stock may be traded as long as it has a willing market maker to act a dealer • OTC is a negotiated market 31 FE UNS
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The NASDAQ System • Automated electronic quotation system • Dealers may elect to make markets in stocks • All dealer quotes are available immediately • Three levels of quotations provided – Level 1 provides a single median representative quote for the stocks on NASDAQ – Level 2 shows quotes by all market makers – Level 3 is for OTC market makers to change their quotes shown 32 FE UNS
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Listing Requirements for NASDAQ • Two lists – National Market System (NMS) – Regular NASDAQ
• Four sets of requirements – Initial listing - least stringent – Automatic NMS inclusion - up to the minute • Alternative 1 for profitable companies with limited assets • Alternative 2 for large but less profitable 33 FE UNS
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Third Market • OTC trading of shares listed on an exchange • Mostly well known stocks – GM, IBM, AT&T, Xerox
• Competes with trades on exchange • May be open when exchange is closed or trading suspended 34 FE UNS
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Fourth Market • Direct trading of securities between two parties with no broker intermediary • Usually both parties are institutions • Can save transaction costs • No data are available regarding its specific size and growth
35 FE UNS
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Detailed Analysis of Exchange Markets • Exchange Membership • Major Types of Orders • Exchange Market Makers 36 FE UNS
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Exchange Membership • Specialist • Commission brokers – Employees of a member firm who buy or sell for the customers of the firm
• Floor brokers – Independent members of an exchange who act as broker for other members
• Registered traders – Use their membership to buy and sell for their own accounts 37 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Major Types of Orders • Market orders – Buy or sell at the best current price – Provides immediate liquidity
• Limit orders – Order specifies the buy or sell price – Time specifications for order may vary • Instantaneous - “fill or kill”, part of a day, a full day, several days, a week, a month, or good until canceled (GTC) 38 FE UNS
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Bandi, 2010
Major Types of Orders • Short sales – Sell overpriced stock that you don’t own and purchase it back later (at a lower price) – Borrow the stock from another investor (through your broker) – Can only be made on an uptick trade – Must pay any dividends to lender – Margin requirements apply 39 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Major Types of Orders • Special Orders – Stop loss • Conditional order to sell stock if it drops to a given price • Does not guarantee price you will get upon sale • Market disruptions can cancel such orders
– Stop buy order • Investor who sold short may want to limit loss if stock increases in price 40 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Margin Transactions • On any type order, instead of paying 100% cash, borrow a portion of the transaction, using the stock as collateral • Interest rate on margin credit may be below prime rate • Regulations limit proportion borrowed – Margin requirements are from 50% up
• Changes in price affect investor’s equity 41 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Margin Transactions Buy 200 shares at $50 = $10,000 position Borrow 50%, investment of $5,000 If price increases to $60, position – – – –
Value is $12,000 Less - $5,000 borrowed Leaves $7,000 equity for a $7,000/$12,000 = 58% equity position
42 FE UNS
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Bandi, 2010
Margin Transactions Buy 200 shares at $50 = $10,000 position Borrow 50%, investment of $5,000 If price decreases to $40, position – – – –
Value is $8,000 Less - $5,000 borrowed Leaves $3,000 equity for a $3,000/$8,000 = 37.5% equity position
43 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Margin Transactions • Initial margin requirement at least 50%. Set up by the Fed. • Maintenance margin – – – –
Requirement proportion of equity to stock Protects broker if stock price declines Minimum requirement is 25% Margin call on undermargined account to meet margin requirement – If margin call not met, stock will be sold to pay off the loan
44 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Exchange Market Makers U.S. Markets • Specialist is exchange member assigned to handle particular stocks – Has two roles: – Broker to match buyers and sellers – Dealer to maintain fair and orderly market
• Specialist has two income sources – Broker commission, without risk – Dealer trading income from profit, with risk 45 FE UNS
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Bandi, 2010
Exchange Market Makers Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) • Regular members – Several employees allowed on trading floor – Trading clerks for customers accounts – Buy and sell for own accounts
• Saitori member – – – –
Hundreds of employees on trading floor Intermediary clerks Brokers among members Maintain limit orders FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
46
TSE Membership • Membership requires corporate license • Four types of license are available and may be combined – 1. Trade securities as a dealer – 2. Trade as a broker – 3. Underwrite new securities on secondary offerings – 4. Handle retail distribution of securities
• Capital requirements vary by license 47 FE UNS
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Bandi, 2010
London Stock Exchange • Brokers trade on behalf of their customers • Jobbers buy and sell as principals • Membership based on experience and competence • Membership fee 1% of gross revenues 48 FE UNS
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Changes in the Securities Markets • Since 1965, the growth of trading by large financial institutions has had many effects – Negotiated (competitive) commission rates – Influence on block trades – Impact on stock price volatility – Development of National Market System (NMS) 49 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Negotiated Commission Rates • NYSE minimum commission schedule prohibited price cutting since 1792 • No price break for large orders – Initial reaction was “give-ups” paid to a designated firm - soft dollars paid for market research – Third market competed with flexible commissions and grew – Fostered development of the fourth market 50 FE UNS
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Bandi, 2010
Negotiated Commission Rates • In 1970 SEC began phasing in negotiated commissions – Commission rates have fallen – Discount brokerage firms compete openly – Many brokerage and research firms have merged or liquidated
51 FE UNS
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The Impact of Block Trades • Number and size of block trades has increased • This strains the exchange specialist system – Capital - 10,000 share or larger blocks – Commitment - large risk with large blocks – Contacts - Rule 113 prohibited direct contact to offer blocks to another institution 52 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
The Impact of Block Trades •
Block houses are investment firms that help institutions locate other institutions interested in buying or selling blocks of stock • A good block house has 1. The capital required to position a large block 2. The willingness to commit this capital to a block transaction, and 3. Contacts among institutions 53 FE UNS
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Bandi, 2010
Institutions and Stock Price Volatility • Empirical studies have not supported the theory that institutional trading increases price volatility • Where trading is dominated by institutions, actively involved institutions may provide liquidity for one another and noninstitutional investors 54 FE UNS
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Bandi, 2010
National Market Systems (NMS) • NMS has been advocated by financial institutions to provide greater efficiency, competition, and lower cost of transactions • NMS is expected to have: – 1. Centralized reporting of all transactions – 2. Centralized quotation system – 3. Centralized limit order book (CLOB) – 4. Competition among all qualified market makers FE UNS
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55
1. Centralized Reporting • Should record all transactions of a stock, regardless of location • NYSE started a central tape in June 1975 covering all NYSE stocks traded on other exchanges and OTC
56 FE UNS
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2. Centralized Quotation System • List quotes for a stock from all market makers on the national exchanges, regional exchanges, and OTC • Brokers would complete trades on the market with the best quote • Intermarket Trading System (ITS) developed by American, Boston, Chicago, New York, Pacific, and Philadelphia Stock Exchanges and NASD 57 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
3. Centralized Limit Order Book • Should contain all limit orders from all markets • Should be visible to all traders • All market makers and traders could fill orders on it • Technology exists, but NYSE specialists fill most limit orders and oppose CLOB because they do not want to share this lucrative business 58 FE UNS
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Bandi, 2010
4. Competition Among All Qualified Market Makers (Rule 390) • Market makers compete on OTC market • Competition reduces bid-ask spread • NYSE opposes competition and argues that central auction results in best market and execution • NYSE Rule 390 requires members to obtain permission of the exchange before trading a listed stock off the exchange, forcing transactions to the exchange to create a central market 59 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
New Trading Systems • Daily trading volume has increased from 5 million shares to over a billion shares • NYSE routinely handles days with volume over a billion shares • Technology has allowed the market process to keep pace
60 FE UNS
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Super DOT • Electronic order-routing system • Member firms transmit market and limit orders in NYSE securities to trading posts or member firm’s booth • Report of execution returned electronically • 85% of NYSE market orders enter through Super DOT system 61 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Display Book • Electronic workstation that keeps track of all limit orders and incoming market orders, including incoming Super Dot limit orders
62 FE UNS
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Bandi, 2010
Opening Automated Report Service (OARS) • Pre-opening market orders for Super Dot system • OARS automatically and continuously pairs buy and sell orders • Presents imbalance to the specialist prior to the opening of a stock • Helps determine opening price and potential need for preopening call market
63 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Market Order Processing • Super Dot’s postopening market order system is designed to accept member firms’ postopening market orders up to 3 million shares • Rapid execution and reporting of market orders • In 2000, orders executed and reported in 1516 seconds on average 64 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Limit Order Processing • Electronically files orders to be executed when and if a specific price is reached • Updates the Specialist’s Display Book • Good-until-cancelled orders that are not executed are stored until executed or cancelled
65 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Global Market Changes • NYSE Off-hours trading – Crossing Session I provides for trading stocks at NYSE closing prices after the regular session from 4:15 PM to 5:00 PM – Crossing Session II provides for trading a collection of at least 15 NYSE stocks with a market value of at least $1 million from 4:00 PM to 5:15 PM 66 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Global Market Changes • Listing foreign stocks on the NYSE – Future growth will be in foreign countries and hence listing foreign stocks is a priority for the NYSE – Problem: Foreign accounting standards are less stringent than SEC requirements for NYSE listing 67 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
London Stock Exchange October 27, 1986 Big Bang Brokers can act as market makers Jobbers can deal with the public and institutions Commissions are negotiable Gilt market was restructured like U.S. government securities market Trades reported on Stock Exchange Automated Quotations (SEAQ) 68 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Effects of the Big Bang • Competitive market makers & SEAQ reduced number of people on the trading floor • More activity in the system, but profit margin has reduced from competition • Many firms have merged or been acquired by foreign firms 69 FE UNS
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Bandi, 2010
Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) • 1998 brought TSE its own Big Bang introducing more competition in trading commissions and competition among market participants
70 FE UNS
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Bandi, 2010
Paris Bourse • The big brokerage house monopoly on stock trading has been opened up to French and foreign banks • Investment firms are merging with banks to acquire capital needed to trade in world market • Continuous auction market introduced to replace call market 71 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
Future Developments • Continuing consolidation of security exchanges • More specialized investment companies • Changes in the financial services industry – Financial supermarkets – Financial boutiques
• Advances in technology – Computerized trading – 24-hour market of the future may be floorless, global, and highly automated 72 FE UNS
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The Internet Investments Online www.quote.com www.sec.gov www.nyse.com www.nasdaq-amex.com www.etrade.com www.schwab.com www.ml.com
73 FE UNS
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Bandi, 2010
Future topics Chapter 5 • Uses of security-market indexes • Stock market indicator series • Bond market indicator series
74 FE UNS
Chp 4
Bandi, 2010
PASAR MODAL INDONESIA • Pasar Modal ditangani secara profesional – Pelaksana: Bursa Efek Indonesia – Pengawas: Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal (Bapepam) – Anggota: Perusahaan Publik, Pemodal, Persh efek, Penasehat investasi – Penunjang: Biro Adm Efek, Wali Amanat, Pemeringkat Efek
• Posisi Pasar modal dlm pembg nasional adl STRATEGISdiatur: – UUUU No. 8/1995 – PPsetidaknya ada 3: • PP No. 12/2004 • PP No. 46/1995 • PP No. 45/1995 Bandi, 2009 75 FE UNS
Chp 754
Bandi, 2010
Initial Public Offering – IPO • Penawaran Perdana (IPO): – Penjualan pertama saham oleh persh pribadi kepada publik. – Sering diterbitkan oleh persh yg lbh kecil, lbh muda yg mencari modal unt perluasan, – Dpt juga dilakukan oleh persh besar yg dimiliki pribadi ingin diperdagangkan scr publik. – Dlm IPO, penerbit dibantu perusahaan penjamin (underwriting firm), unt menentukan tipe sekuritas apa yg diterbitkan (biasa dan/atau preferen), harga penawaran terbaik dan waktu unt membawa ke pasar. – Disebut sbg “penawaran publik”, unseasoned new issue (jk sebelumnya tlh diterbitkan). 9/30/2010 FE UNS
Chp 764
Bandi, 2010
Bandi, 2009 76 PPAk UNS
Initial Public Offering – IPO IPO dpt menjadi investasi berisiko – Bg investor individual, terlalu sulit memprediksi apa yg akan terjadi atas saham pd hari pertama perdagangan dan dlm waktu dekat setelahnya selama data historis persh hanya sedikit unt dianalisis – Umumnya IPO adl dari persh sdg bertumbuh scr transitori, sehingga tergantung dari ketidakpastian tambahan berkenaan nilai mendatang mereka
9/30/2010 FE UNS
Chp 774
Bandi, 2010
Bandi, 2009 77 PPAk UNS
Initial Public Offering – IPO Prosesnya, meliputi: • Pengumuman dan Pendistribusian Prospektus • Masa Penawaran • Masa Penjatahan • Masa Pengembalian Dana: • Penyerahan Efek: • Pencatatan Efek di Bursa, secara resmi dapat diperdagangkan di pasar sekunder
9/30/2010 FE UNS
Chp 784
Bandi, 2010
Bandi, 2009 78 PPAk UNS
Initial Public Offering – IPO Proses:
• Pengumuman dan Pendistribusian Prospektus – Diumumkan melalui surat kabar oleh emiten (secara ringkas) – Menyebarkan melalui penjamin atau agen (lengkap) – Proses selanjutnya • Masa Penawaran
9/30/2010 FE UNS
Chp 794
Bandi, 2010
Bandi, 2009 79 PPAk UNS
Initial Public Offering – IPO Proses: Masa Penawaran – Minimum 3 hari kerja – Tenggang antara pemberian ijin emisi dan saat penawaran ditetapkan maksimum 90 hari – Pemodal memesan efek, dengan cara mengisi formulier pesanan disertai tanda tangan pemodal dan dilampieri potokopi KTP 1 lembar – Pemodal menyiapkan dan menyetorkan dana sesuai pesanan kepada agen penjual atau penjamin emisi saat penyerahan formulir – full/over subscribe= laku semua, biasanya jumlah yang diminta > jumlah yang ditawarkan, penjamin emisi terbebas dari risiko untuk membeli sisanya – under subscribe = untuk sebaliknya, tidak laku semua, biasanya jumlah yang diminta < jumlah yang ditawarkan, penjamin emisi membeli sisanya. – Peran pialang: (1) agen pihak penjamin, (2) penasehat dan analis untuk pemodal
9/30/2010 FE UNS
Chp 804
Bandi, 2010
Bandi, 2009 80 PPAk UNS
Initial Public Offering – IPO Proses: •
•
•
•
Masa Penjatahan – Terjadi jika jumlah yang diminta pemodal > jumlah yang ditawarkan emiten – Maksimum 12 hari kerja terhitung mujlai berakhirnya masa penawaran Masa Pengembalian Dana: – Pengembalian dana kepada pemodal jika tidak terpenuhinya semua pesanan – Dibayar kembali oleh penjamin emisi, atau agen penjual – Batas waktu maksimum 4 hari terhitung mulai berakhirnya masa penjatahan – Pengembalian tepat waktu akan mempercepat likuiditas pasar modal Penyerahan Efek: – penjamin emisi menyerahkan kpd pemodal melalui agen penjual, – maksimum waktu 12 hari kerja terhitung tanggal berakhirnya masa penjatahan, – pengambilan harus dengan bukti pesanan Pencatatan Efek di Bursa, secara resmi dapat diperdagangkan di pasar sekunder
9/30/2010 FE UNS
Chp 814
Bandi, 2010
Bandi, 2009 81 PPAk UNS
Pasar Primer & Sekunder
9/30/2010 FE UNS
Chp 824
Bandi, 2010
Bandi, 2009 82 PPAk UNS
Proses IPO (Amerika)
9/30/2010 FE UNS
Chp 834
Bandi, 2010
Bandi, 2009 83 PPAk UNS
